Would you join a lawsuit against DVC to stop/revert the 2020 reallocation?

[miTnosnhoJ]

yes i know the difference......in the long run....it all rolls up hill to the big stock ticker.

I have a model of the points in my own spreadsheet.....they can manipulate the points all they want......most people dont realize......we are dealing with millions of points at a single property. unless you look at it on that scale...yes...it does appear they create points out of thin air. but I assure you...they are not.

You should read the thread

 

[glamdring269]

DVC at popular resorts and cash at others

You’d be ok with a scheme where they force you to pay more so they can have more cash bookings. That seems to run afoul to operating for the benefit of dvc ownership. Unless of course they’re using those cash bookings to offset our annual maintenance fees.

 

[Jerry5788]

You’d be ok with a scheme where they force you to pay more so they can have more cash bookings. That seems to run afoul to operating for the benefit of dvc ownership. Unless of course they’re using those cash bookings to offset our annual maintenance fees.

I’d say system not a scheme as that pretense means it’s bad/shady. Breakage has always existed and it provides more openings at other resorts 7 months out. Given the alternative of not having lock-offs and in turn less studios which would make things more competitive at the 11 month mark window I am 100% fine with.

I am fine with Disney making more on cash bookings for rooms that likely wouldn’t be filled anyway.

I mean don’t get me wrong it’s not ideal but I don’t blame them it’s a business and within their right. I believe we will see new DVC prices increase step up and see rack rates increase ahead of SWGE opening this Fall. As long as I’m still getting a similar % discount from the cash rate I am fine.

You talk about conflict of interest (“run afoul”) but this isn’t new. Just look st maintenance fees - one Disney entity proposes/budgets how much next year will cost and another Disney entity approves the budget with no say/vote by members. Also not all members are disadvantaged for 2 BR it’s now cheaper.

 

[skier_pete]

I haven't read through the 20+ pages of posts, but I'm curious how this is known to be fact? Is this just assumed to be true based on anecdotes here on the Dis, or is there data somewhere that shows the nightly occupancy rates of units/resorts/unit types.

The only hard data we have is VGF 2BR..and it seems VGF has better 2BR booking availability than studios and 1BR:

https://www.disboards.com/threads/p...-studios-1-bedrooms-june-2018-update.3689931/

So as one of people making these charts, we started working on the 2-beds at the rest of the resorts. We have only been working on it a few months, but I would say so far the data says mostly the 2-beds are harder than 1-beds, but it's a lot closer to 1-beds than studios. The VGF data is VERY close but yes I would agree it says 2-beds are slightly more available there.

 

[Bing Showei]

The only hard data we have is VGF 2BR..and it seems VGF has better 2BR booking availability than studios and 1BR:

https://www.disboards.com/threads/p...-studios-1-bedrooms-june-2018-update.3689931/

We're seeing this year the following resorts/categories have greater availability of 1BR than 2BRs:

OKW
AKV-K Standard
AKV-K Savannah
BCV
BLT Standard
BLT Lake
BRV

The only resorts/views we're finding greater availability of 2BR than 1BR are:

VGF Standard
VGF Lake
BLT TPV

Inconclusive to date (@skier_pete may be able to speak more to this):

SSR Standard
SSR Preferred

The majority of 2BR, as we've observed them, are becoming less available more quickly than the 1BRs.

 

[ParkHoppers]

We're seeing this year the following resorts/categories have greater availability of 1BR than 2BRs:

OKW
AKV-K Standard
AKV-K Savannah
BCV
BLT Standard
BLT Lake
BRV

The only resorts/views we're finding where 2BR are in lower demand than 1BR are:

VGF Standard
VGF Lake
BLT TPV

Inconclusive to date (@skier_pete may be able to speak more to this):

SSR Standard
SSR Preferred

The majority of 2BR, as we've observed them, are becoming less available more quickly than the 1BRs.

If this is the case than people who book 2 bedrooms better get ready for even less availability post 2020. I think? Head spinning

 

[DVC92]

A little OT - I went back to the 2010 charts thread and was quickly reminded of the 100% annoying marketing spin that accompanied any and all changes back then. Though DVC just did a tiny blurb on the charts with this one and would probably do better to explain more, what accompanied the 2010 charts said that if demand was high they lowered the point requirements. Of course weekends were sitting there available because of the high point requirements which is why they reduced the points for them and no weekdays would be available because people were really working the lower point requirements so they increased them.

"Disney Vacation Club adjusts 2010 Vacation Points charts

To help address a growing Member interest in weekend stays at Disney Vacation Club Resorts, Disney Vacation Club has adjusted 2010 Vacation Points charts, reducing Vacation Point requirements for Friday and Saturday nights.

In addition to better reflecting the changes in Members' vacationing patterns, the adjusted charts make accommodations more affordable during many popular Walt Disney World® events, such as Mickey's Very Merry Christmas Party and ESPN The Weekend.

To make this change possible, Vacation Point requirements for some instances of Sunday-Thursday stays are now higher. However, a full week's stay will essentially cost the same amount of Vacation Points as before.

To view the adjusted Vacation Points charts, click on the "View Vacation Points Charts" link in the "Plan My Vacation" section of this Web site (located on the right side of the page)."

Being an owner since year 1, we were hurt at OKW by the point reallocation. It forced us down to 10 nights in lieu of 12 in Magic. However, they gave a legitimate rationale for the change and clearly kept the overall points the same. My problem with the current reallocation is that it certainly appears many more points have been added to the system, and they refuse to divulge the information to the owners honestly explaining and detailing the reallocation. If it is above board, why be so secretive. As they replied to me in writing - "I am unable to provide an allocation total for each Disney Vacation Club Resort, as that information is proprietary. I apologize for any disappointment this may cause."

 

[Mumof4mice]

• in 3.4, point g where they say they can change the Home Resort Rules and Regulations document. The HRR&R document deals with booking procedures, banking and borrowing, point charts cancellations, wait lists. Did you know this states they can create a Preference lists that can override the first-come-first-serve booking system, i.e create a VIP system?

• in 4.2.b where they say they can increase or decrease the home resort priority period, but it must be at least one month

• in 4.3, they can increase or decrease the breakage period, but no more than 90 days

• in 4.6, they can limit the ability to bank and borrow (this will probably come into force when the resort expiration date will near)

• in 7.2 where they say they can amend the Exhibit G and the HRR&R. Any change has to be notified to the members either direct (mail, email, fax...) or via a newsletter

Every one of these clauses is potentially more problematic and costly for owners than the current changes. In addition to the above, DVMC could:

- Charge everybody fees (throwing in a surcharge for us troublesome foreigners). Instead of the lock-off premium hotly discussed here, would a booking fee/modification fee/non-home resort booking conversion fee/cancellation fee have been more acceptable or preferable?

For Ownership Interests owned by Members outside of the United States, the Management Company reserves the right to charge a surcharge in an amount set by the Management Company from time to time to cover the added costs for postage, personal delivery, increased frequency of and costs associated with long distance and/or international communications, deliveries and so on. [Paragraph 7.b.(2) of this Public Offering Statement]​

- Run the resort to the ground and/or remove most of the amenities that make the resorts valuable. There's not much owners can do about it. Volunteer to pay more annual dues?

There is no guaranty that any portion of the Grand Floridian Resort & Spa (including restaurants, bars and other hotel amenities) or the existing monorail system will continue in operation and The TWDC Companies shall be entitled to cease or modify operations of any portion(s) of the Grand Floridian Resort & Spa at any time. Do not purchase an interest in the Grand Floridian Villas in reliance upon the continued operation of the Grand Floridian Resort & Spa. [Paragraph 5.f.(2) of this Public Offering Statement]​

- Eradicate the option of exiting with minimal financial impact, which DVC owners currently enjoy.

Owners attempting to resell or rent their Ownership Interests would have to compete, at a substantial disadvantage, with DVD in the sale or rental of its Ownership Interests. The many restrictions upon the use of an Ownership Interest may adversely affect its marketability or rentability. [Paragraph 7.d. of this Public Offering Statement]
​

Anything could happen in a timespan of decades. Disney could decide to sell the entire DVC department for a huge profit. Or Disney could go bankrupt in which case no contract in the world offers the owners/creditor satisfactory compensation (unlikely. But a risk to be factored in).

It's understandable for people to be intellectually aware of the potential risks, but nevertheless genuinely surprised and wounded when adverse outcomes happen. This doesn't mean that legal action is justified or likely to yield results though. DVMC should be able to offer plausible explanations such as the ones @Dean and others outlined, and defend the current changes with ease.

The potential and power for DVMC to do much, much worse has always been there. IMO what's more pertinent for every owner who is unhappy about these changes is to reassess if the DVC discount is worth the risks.

 

[zavandor]

The only resorts/views we're finding greater availability of 2BR than 1BR are:

VGF Standard
VGF Lake
BLT TPV

When you say "greater availability", do you mean slightly more or so much more that it screams the need of a reallocation?

 

[glamdring269]

I am fine with Disney making more on cash bookings for rooms that likely wouldn’t be filled anyway.

I mean don’t get me wrong it’s not ideal but I don’t blame them it’s a business and within their right. I believe we will see new DVC prices increase step up and see rack rates increase ahead of SWGE opening this Fall. As long as I’m still getting a similar % discount from the cash rate I am fine.

The DVCMC is supposed to represent our interests. If the argument is that raising the point prices is intended to help shift demand to 2BR then the argument shouldn’t also be that ‘rooms wouldn’t likely fill anyway’. The whole point is that what they do should be ideal as they are supposed to represent our interests and not make a change that hurts us in order to generate more profit for Disney through cash bookings.

A change to help level demand is within expectations. A change to generate profit more profit via cash bookings disguised as a change to level demand is not.

Unless this is something else I’m overlooking. If so I’d be happy to be corrected.

 

[miTnosnhoJ]

So as one of people making these charts, we started working on the 2-beds at the rest of the resorts. We have only been working on it a few months, but I would say so far the data says mostly the 2-beds are harder than 1-beds, but it's a lot closer to 1-beds than studios. The VGF data is VERY close but yes I would agree it says 2-beds are slightly more available there.

This makes sense since there are 94 2BRs, 47 of which are dedicated 2BR.

There are no dedicated studios or 1BR at VGF, so every studio, 1BR, or lockoff reservation is competing for one of those 47 lockoffs.

 

[Bing Showei]

When you say "greater availability", do you mean slightly more or so much more that it screams the need of a reallocation?

My statement comes with a big caveat. The system, as skier_pete developed it, is an invaluable tool that gives potential buyers a broad sense of when home ownership is necessary. What it does not reflect is any real-time, day-to-day metric. Something DVCMC will have access to. With that caveat, I’m not seeing the current reallocation as a simple balancing of demand. If anything, it supports the member-observed booking patterns for 1BRs.

When I say “greater availability” it means that in the year we made the observation, we can see a certain room category remain available longer than another, namely that 1BR are unbooked longer than 2BR (or in the case of VGF, the 2BR does seem more available for a little longer than 1BRs -but nothing glaring). It’s not an exact science, but absent guidance from DVCMC, it’s the only measure I have to gauge the reallocation.

 

[Wakey]

One point, there's a massive market in the UK for SSR and OKW cash bookings in particular (as well as some other DVC to a lesser extent) with free dining. I highlighted a deal I got above. The deals have been very, very good for years.

The UK boards have been up in arms this past 2 years. First, many who booked in 2018 didn't have the room, and had to be shifted to Beach Club, Wilderness Lodge etc at Disney's expense.

Disney got it's fingers seriously burnt.

Then for 2019 there's hardly been any availability- people cannot understand where it all went. They speculated it was being held back for Americans who were willing to pay more. I don't think it was.

Any connection?

 

[nasmith]

Well, I just ran a bunch of numbers, and based on the numbers... Here's a specific relative impact increasing the lock-off premium. I did it for AKV Kidani...
Going into the numbers (2020 is a leap year so there is one more day and I ran the numbers with and without that day)
Given what I found
Kidani has 324 room - 60 2BR LO STD, 27 2BR dedicated STD, 109 2BR LO SAV, 112 2BR dedicated SAV, 2 GV std, 14 GV SAV (can range from 324 to 493 each night, possible 169 "premiums")
Using the point tables for 2019 and 2220
2019 2020(366 days) 2020(minus 2/29)
Maximum points available (all 2BR LO booked as studio and 1BR) 5953838 6113649 6096069
Minimum points available (all 2BR LO booked as 2BR) 5593311 5574381 5558469
Breakeven (88% S/1BR 12% 2BR) 5636574 5639093 5622981
50% S/1BR 50% 2BR 5773575 5844015 (+ 1.2%) 5827269 (+0.9%)
75% S/1BR 25% 2BR 5863706 5978832 (+2.0%) 5961669 (+1.7%)

I would guess real booking is 50-75% of the lock-offs get booked as a studio and a 1BR, so Disney "created 1.5-2%" more room with this. I believe that violates the terms

DaveNan- If you want to see the true mark-up of rooms at AKV, you need to look at the difference between the 2018 charts and 2019 charts and then at the 2020 charts.....Because there was a reallocation of points across room categories from 2018 to 2019 for both AKV and Vero Beach. It doesn't seem like anyone noticed that reallocation? A quick check ( I didn't do any charts) show that the 2020 points (for adventure season) are closer to 2018 points after being "reallocated" for 2019.

And if reallocating points across room categories was not truly legal, then those wishing to pursue a lawsuit had better go back thru the many years of charts and find out when it was first done - because a lawsuit isn't going to stand a chance if Disney has been doing this for years, but you never noticed because this is the first time you were personally affected. You'd have to show all the charts anyway ( since resort inception) for a lawsuit anyway....

 

[skier_pete]

We're seeing this year the following resorts/categories have greater availability of 1BR than 2BRs:

OKW
AKV-K Standard
AKV-K Savannah
BCV
BLT Standard
BLT Lake
BRV

The only resorts/views we're finding greater availability of 2BR than 1BR are:

VGF Standard
VGF Lake
BLT TPV

Inconclusive to date (@skier_pete may be able to speak more to this):

SSR Standard
SSR Preferred

The majority of 2BR, as we've observed them, are becoming less available more quickly than the 1BRs.

This is a good summary of how I've been reading the data too. The SSR 2-bed vs 1-bed is at this stage inconclusive - overall they are both extremely available in springtime (like down to the 1-month advance point) but the 2-bed seem to be available even beyond one month. We have yet to get to the 7 month or less period for the fall, which is really going to be the difference for SSR 2-bed and 1-bed.

Also point out that the reason there is no data for AK-Jambo and BWV is that there are no dedicated 2-beds at these resorts. For that reason, as soon as studios are sold out, there are no 2-beds available at all. So in those two cases, the 2-beds run out MUCH faster than the 1-beds.

When you say "greater availability", do you mean slightly more or so much more that it screams the need of a reallocation?

Understand - what we look at doing these charts is whether their is an available dates in a room category (in 1/2 month blocks). There is no way in the system to tell if one category has 1 room available and another has 20 rooms available. It just looks at yes that category is available or it's not. It's really better for looking at overall trends. If you've looked at the thread itself - https://www.disboards.com/threads/p...-studios-1-bedrooms-june-2018-update.3689931/

- you can see there is definitely a strong correlation that studios book much, much faster than 1-beds in every single category. And pretty much every resort you can find some room category where 1-beds are available at 7 months for much of the year. The charts also point out how heavily bookings are swung to the time period of early October through early January. More easily observed with 1-bedrooms, but it happens with studios as well.

I admit I was resistant to going back and doing the 2-beds, but with this whole re-allocation I am glad we are gahering the data - so full credit to @Bing Showei for pushing that!

(I'm now realizing I never posted the final charts for the 2-beds on there - I'll take care of that this weekend. )

 

[OKW Lover]

As they replied to me in writing - "I am unable to provide an allocation total for each Disney Vacation Club Resort, as that information is proprietary. I apologize for any disappointment this may cause."

This comment disturbs me. Not quite sure what is meant by "allocation total" though. If this refers to the total points for a resort, there is no way this can be proprietary. As owners, we do have a legitimate claim to this information.

 

[Jerry5788]

This comment disturbs me. Not quite sure what is meant by "allocation total" though. If this refers to the total points for a resort, there is no way this can be proprietary. As owners, we do have a legitimate claim to this information.

What was the specific question asked. The allocation total of OKW points do not change but as other DVC members can book at 7 months you can spend more than the total OKW points issued/allocated as breakage premiums exist. I understood that to mean we can't tell you because we don't want to divulge how many studios were booked, how many lock off 2 BR, was every night booked or did some go unrented, etc.

 

[DVC92]

What was the specific question asked. The allocation total of OKW points do not change but as other DVC members can book at 7 months you can spend more than the total OKW points issued/allocated as breakage premiums exist. I understood that to mean we can't tell you because we don't want to divulge how many studios were booked, how many lock off 2 BR, was every night booked or did some go unrented, etc.

The question was;

"Unfortunately, your response fails to address my question. As far as I am aware, the total point allocation for a year for a resort, in this case the Villas at the Grand Floridian, cannot change from year-to-year. This does not appear to be the case as 21 one week stays across the various units have increased while only seven have decreased. I would like to be provided with the point allocation totals for this resort to either confirm my suspicion that the point change violates the terms of our contracts, or abides by the rules. Possibly member accounting will need to be consulted."

 

[Jerry5788]

The question was;

"Unfortunately, your response fails to address my question. As far as I am aware, the total point allocation for a year for a resort, in this case the Villas at the Grand Floridian, cannot change from year-to-year. This does not appear to be the case as 21 one week stays across the various units have increased while only seven have decreased. I would like to be provided with the point allocation totals for this resort to either confirm my suspicion that the point change violates the terms of our contracts, or abides by the rules. Possibly member accounting will need to be consulted."

Who did you ask this to? A cast member or someone more senior at Disney?

I am way to lazy to do GFV because of the views but when I did the analysis of BCV there was no change in total points when you factor in no breakage. This will be the case for GFV but too much work for me to verify.

 

[DVC92]

Who did you ask this to? A cast member or someone more senior at Disney?

I am way to lazy to do GFV because of the views but when I did the analysis of BCV there was no change in total points when you factor in no breakage. This will be the case for GFV but too much work for me to verify.

DVCMember Relations. I also spoke to them. The person I spoke to put me on hold while he checked with a higher-up, then told me no info.