Would you buy a resale with 2042 end date?

[CastAStone]

Absolutely!

I’ve given it more thought than I should lol.

The best I’ve come up with is adding a check box where DVC point reservations are added to MDE. Put it right on the page with the other ‘Agree’ check box that exists. “If this is a point rental you must check this box to confirm you understand a rental contract is required.”

It’s very low-key. Not threatening. Pleasant, no cause for alarm type of thing.

It wouldn’t bother owners doing the occasional rental. They’re fine. Their renters are fine.

The only issue will be to commercial renters because they’re caught between having to coach their rentee against checking off it’s a rental with a proper contract, or DVC having record of all their rentals. But if I’m renting from a stranger, do I really want to open myself to issues by not complying with the checkbox. Is it worth it? I’d rather just go find a rental where that owner doesn’t care if I check the box… and that would be somebody who is not crossing the line into renting as a business, for profit, commercial, etc. And if I were crossing those lines, I might think twice about letting all those rental checkboxes happen if I’m used to never paying taxes on them, among other things.

Might be a solution. I have no doubt the heavy hitters’ activity negatively affects casual owners, and cash rooms too. Maybe DVC’s just waiting for the right opportunity Get their ducks in a row now - making sure to maximize ways it could benefit them. Have that ready to go. Also aim for the best timing - when this kind of transition will be easiest for them to get their preferred results.

That’s clever! I like it.

 

[Massachusetts]

As long as we keep seeing 200+ listings for Jambo Value Studios on Redweek for 1-3 nights with 99%-100% of them coming from the same broker, I don't think the occasional renting owner needs to worry too much...

I agree with this. Disney has known about commercial rentals for years. I believe that they are happy with the status quo. Rental activity keeps the parks filled and exposes non-DVC owners to the benefits of potential ownership. The closing ratios on DVC sales must magnitudes higher for people who have rented rather than cash stay guests.

The best I’ve come up with is adding a check box where DVC point reservations are added to MDE. Put it right on the page with the other ‘Agree’ check box that exists. “If this is a point rental you must check this box to confirm you understand a rental contract is required.”

This is a simple easy solution. I like it!

 

[MICKIMINI]

how so?

It is posted all over disboards!

 

[CarolynFH]

Re commercial rentals - DVC put more specific language about renting into the trust documents, including how they'd determine a "pattern of commercial renting," that makes me think they're aware of the issue and are taking steps toward minimizing it. Hopefully they'll be able to counteract the bots or whatever it is that's allowing some entities to make so many highly desirable and difficult to book reservations, e.g. AKV value studios.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

DVC cannot legally prohibit renting. They can restrict commercial rentals, but cannot take away the right to rent, at least in Florida.

 

[DanCali]

DVC cannot legally prohibit renting. They can restrict commercial rentals, but cannot take away the right to rent, at least in Florida.

There may be an important distinction between renting your own deeded property (a reservation at your "home" at 7-11 months out) or an exchange you got by being a member of a timeshare exchange (i.e., using your points at 0-7 months to reserve at a different resort).

 

[aammtt20]

There may be an important distinction between renting your own deeded property (a reservation at your "home" at 7-11 months out) or an exchange you got by being a member of a timeshare exchange (i.e., using your points at 0-7 months to reserve at a different resort).

Yeah, but the idea of only being able to rent out the "deeded property" still seems too limiting in reality. For example, my AKV contracts deed me a certain unit number and that unit number correlates to a group of 4 rooms on the 5th floor of Jambo. Now, when I book a reservation, I'm not getting a room in my deeded property (well maybe I am, but the chance I get the exact rooms in my unit are small). So even when booking and renting at our home resorts, I wouldn't exactly consider renting out the deeded property since the points we get are just converted from the real property and all we really have are the points.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

We sold our last two 2042 resorts early this year for fair prices. We sold quite a few in 2022 when DVC was overpaying through ROFR and they bought four I think. If you believe you will own and love a resort right through to the end then it might be for you. I am not much of a gambler.

I believe a better option is to buy a later expiration dated resort so you have the option to sell. You can use as SOP points at 7 months...I know it is not ideal. I would rather own knowing I can sell a contract rather than dreading 5 or 10 years of MF's and not using the points, especially since DVC is scrutinizing rentals.

Good luck!

I think you are gambling far more than you realize. If you own a longer dated monorail resort you are probably going to be OK, but after the 2042 resorts are gone, there will be a far fewer resorts that SAP resale points can trade into and far more points competing to get into them—which will devalue points at OKWE/SSR (maybe AKL/AUL and other resorts where part of the utility is flexibility as well). At the same time, Disney has made pretty clear they aren’t going to support any of the older resorts with ROFR and some of them are already going at/below $60/pt because of high dues. It’s anybody’s guess what dues will look like in 20 years with insurance costs being impacted by hurricanes and other hazards in FL. Also, if there is a true crackdown on commercial renting it should depress prices because a significant chunk of contracts (currently owned by commercial renters and brokers) will flood the market.

If you can buy BLT/CCV/VGF/PVB for the same price as a 2042 resort it will probably have more value than most/all the 2042 resorts by 2035, but it’s far from certain if dues shoot up and there’s no ROFR to support prices…. Whereas you might still find people happy to drop $50 for 5 years of using BWV points at 10-14 points/night and no long-term commitments. I’m selfishly hoping that they drop below $50 by 2032 (even though I own at BCV) because I’ll scoop up a couple hundred more to stay in 2 bedrooms each trip)…and I suspect I’m not alone.

 

[atthebeachclub]

I think you are gambling far more than you realize. If you own a longer dated monorail resort you are probably going to be OK, but after the 2042 resorts are gone, there will be a far fewer resorts that SAP resale points can trade into and far more points competing to get into them—which will devalue points at OKWE/SSR (maybe AKL/AUL and other resorts where part of the utility is flexibility as well). At the same time, Disney has made pretty clear they aren’t going to support any of the older resorts with ROFR and some of them are already going at/below $60/pt because of high dues. It’s anybody’s guess what dues will look like in 20 years with insurance costs being impacted by hurricanes and other hazards in FL. Also, if there is a true crackdown on commercial renting it should depress prices because a significant chunk of contracts (currently owned by commercial renters and brokers) will flood the market.

If you can buy BLT/CCV/VGF/PVB for the same price as a 2042 resort it will probably have more value than most/all the 2042 resorts by 2035, but it’s far from certain if dues shoot up and there’s no ROFR to support prices…. Whereas you might still find people happy to drop $50 for 5 years of using BWV points at 10-14 points/night and no long-term commitments. I’m selfishly hoping that they drop below $50 by 2032 (even though I own at BCV) because I’ll scoop up a couple hundred more to stay in 2 bedrooms each trip)…and I suspect I’m not alone.

Good analysis.

 

[smileyanna]

If you can buy BLT/CCV/VGF/PVB for the same price as a 2042 resort it will probably have more value than most/all the 2042 resorts by 2035, but it’s far from certain if dues shoot up and there’s no ROFR to support prices

So BWV could be worth more than BLT/CCV/VGF/PVB in 2035?

And the monorail contracts could be worthless in 2043 because of MFs?

 

[intamin]

So BWV could be worth more than BLT/CCV/VGF/PVB in 2035?

And the monorail contracts could be worthless in 2043 because of MFs?

I think that can happen to any timeshare where the dues outpace the value and essentially make the timeshare worthless. Now do I expect that to happen to DVC? No, primarily because it has the world’s most popular theme park sitting across the street, but it can happen to any timeshare including DVC. We’re already seeing it happen somewhat to Vero Beach and you have to wonder would those points be selling for pennies if they were not able to trade into the rest of the DVC system? Obviously it’s not on property and its dues are a lot worse so there’s a big difference between these 2 products even though they’re part of the same system but even so, there could be some natural disaster that makes dues rise significantly.

 

[MerlinandtheMouse]

I think you are gambling far more than you realize. If you own a longer dated monorail resort you are probably going to be OK, but after the 2042 resorts are gone, there will be a far fewer resorts that SAP resale points can trade into and far more points competing to get into them—which will devalue points at OKWE/SSR (maybe AKL/AUL and other resorts where part of the utility is flexibility as well). At the same time, Disney has made pretty clear they aren’t going to support any of the older resorts with ROFR and some of them are already going at/below $60/pt because of high dues. It’s anybody’s guess what dues will look like in 20 years with insurance costs being impacted by hurricanes and other hazards in FL. Also, if there is a true crackdown on commercial renting it should depress prices because a significant chunk of contracts (currently owned by commercial renters and brokers) will flood the market.

If you can buy BLT/CCV/VGF/PVB for the same price as a 2042 resort it will probably have more value than most/all the 2042 resorts by 2035, but it’s far from certain if dues shoot up and there’s no ROFR to support prices…. Whereas you might still find people happy to drop $50 for 5 years of using BWV points at 10-14 points/night and no long-term commitments. I’m selfishly hoping that they drop below $50 by 2032 (even though I own at BCV) because I’ll scoop up a couple hundred more to stay in 2 bedrooms each trip)…and I suspect I’m not alone.

The only thing is this assumes DVC adds nothing of value or interest to their portfolio in the next 20years. If that speculated hotel in the parking lot of Epcot ever opens, or some other project with as much interest, I think BCV and BWV will see a swift decrease in value. They’ll be better than Vero or HH but I don’t see it being worth more than the longer expiry resorts.

 

[skier_pete]

We bought Boardwalk in 2017 (~25 years left) and just a small contract. I would have a hard time paying the premium that you are going to pay to purchase at Boardwalk with 18 years left, but if it is absolutely what you want I can see an argument to do it. Just understand in 18 years you will be left with something having zero value, versus say Riviera that would still have over 25 years on it.

I just can't see the value of BW and BC contracts dropping in the next few years. If in 2032 BW contracts are still selling at $100 a point I will be very tempted to sell off my BW contract even with how much I love the resort.

 

[brettcw23]

I am looking at buying DVC. If I can't be on monorail, my next fave resort is BWV. It seems to sell resale about $105/point.
Only thing is it expires in 2042 - so 18 years.
I could buy SSR for not much more with a longer date, but its not my first choice to own.
Thoughts?

Rule of thumb is to buy where you want to stay. We added at SSR (bought orig. into BLT) and I mildly regret it only because of administrative overhead. If I'd do it over again, I would have bought my other contract at BWV or BCV where we routinely stay aside from BLT. A longer expiration is obviously more attractive but make sure it's a resort you'll want to stay.

Also worth noting that it's possible DVC offers owners the option to extend. This was done for OKW. DVC offered a fifteen year extension opportunity to the owners.

 

[EPCOT Terran]

Also worth noting that it's possible DVC offers owners the option to extend. This was done for OKW. DVC offered a fifteen year extension opportunity to the owners.

When they've done this in the past, what was the extension premium? I assume it was lower than a new buy-in but have no experience with this.

 

[wdickerson]

I am looking at buying DVC. If I can't be on monorail, my next fave resort is BWV. It seems to sell resale about $105/point.
Only thing is it expires in 2042 - so 18 years.
I could buy SSR for not much more with a longer date, but its not my first choice to own.
Thoughts?

If you only plan to vacation with Disney for the next 18 years, 2042 expiration is perfect. Depending on your age, you may want to consider your future family. We bought SSR and AKV in 2009 and were seriously concerned that we wouldn’t need the membership if our daughter ever lost interest. She was 16 at the time. She never lost interest. Recently, she gave us our first grandson and has another on the way. We will definitely be using our membership for the foreseeable future. Best of luck with your decision…

 

[CarolynFH]

When they've done this in the past, what was the extension premium? I assume it was lower than a new buy-in but have no experience with this.

It was $25 pp in 2007 dollars, but don’t get too excited because the likelihood of an extension at any other DVC resort is pretty much zero. Not only did a majority of owners refuse to pay, multiple attorneys pointed out that it might have been illegal to require payment in the first place. So DVC stopped the extension program and now just requires owners to sign a quit claim in order to sell.

Besides, DVC can make a whole lot more money by taking back BWV, BCV, and BRV, refurbishing them to 2042 standards (or tearing down and rebuilding - e.g., just think about a tower on the BCV site, with Epcot fireworks views), creating new points charts to match other near-park resorts, and selling those points. At best, owners in 2042 might be offered a discount on the price of the new resorts.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

The only thing is this assumes DVC adds nothing of value or interest to their portfolio in the next 20years. If that speculated hotel in the parking lot of Epcot ever opens, or some other project with as much interest, I think BCV and BWV will see a swift decrease in value. They’ll be better than Vero or HH but I don’t see it being worth more than the longer expiry resorts.

So I agree that a new DVC property on the lake (e.g. Yacht Club conversion) would definitely cause some BWV/BCV buyers to buy at Yacht Club Villas instead and that could absolutely depress resale value... but the point chart would be totally different (more like VGF or PVB), and some buyers would still prefer the older resort property with lower chart and shorter time commitment. Don't get me wrong, BWV/BCV is not a great investment but you can recoup your entire purchase and dues against cash rates in 4-10 years depending on when/how you travel.

Re: Front of EPCOT parking lot hotel, I think it would have some impact, but a lot of us specifically like Crescent Lake (and the many restaurants, boardwalk, etc., so I think it would have less impact than a new YC conversion.

@smileyanna -- just to clarify, I expect all of the monorail resorts listed will be worth more than BCV/BWV by the late 2030s (and think most of the non-monorail resorts could be worth the same or more 10 years from now)... just pointing out that if dues did rise a lot, all the new resorts are restricted, AND DVC continues to move away from ROFR, they might not hold their value as well as BWV/BCV 10 years from now, if people don't want to be locked into high dues for a long time (plus the less friendly point charts which require owning more points).

 

[EPCOT Terran]

don’t get too excited

Excited might not be the right word, just trying to sort through all the possibilities before I drop a bunch of money on direct points at RIV. I want to buy direct to get the benefits and ability to use points anywhere, but I also really like both Beach Club and Boardwalk and I'm considering adding resale points at one of them instead of buying more points at Riviera (the 300-point Welcome Home discount for a new member looks pretty enticing to me). Just trying to think through the options. The possibility of an extension at one of the 2042 Crescent Lake villas would be very enticing. If it's not going to happen, then maybe I go ahead and buy more points at RIV and sell them around 2042 to buy into whatever DVC does at Crescent Lake and take my chances with the 7-month window in the meantime.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

Excited might not be the right word, just trying to sort through all the possibilities before I drop a bunch of money on direct points at RIV. I want to buy direct to get the benefits and ability to use points anywhere, but I also really like both Beach Club and Boardwalk and I'm considering adding resale points at one of them instead of buying more points at Riviera (the 300-point Welcome Home discount for a new member looks pretty enticing to me). Just trying to think through the options. The possibility of an extension at one of the 2042 Crescent Lake villas would be very enticing. If it's not going to happen, then maybe I go ahead and buy more points at RIV and sell them around 2042 to buy into whatever DVC does at Crescent Lake and take my chances with the 7-month window in the meantime.

Due to the disaster with the OKW-E extension, I would not buy any 2042 resort with the expectation that an extension will be offered, but (as a BCV owner) I have a slim hope that we'll be offered some sort of "Welcome [Back] Home" discount on whatever comes next-- but my guess is that IF the discount is more than a token amount, it would be because the general economy/travel/WDW parks are not doing so hot, and in that case I would expect RIV resale value (along with all of the other DVC resorts and especially the restricted ones) to be lower than they are now (at least in real dollars).