Winter Dec 25 - Jan 26 Direct Incentives

I think the big factor for me in your shoes would firstly be, do you feel like you have enough VGC points to stay there a reasonable amount in the accommodations you want?

If the answer to that is "no", I would want more VGC before anything else.
This is something I would figure out first, before even considering any VDH.
 
But then you have to go a year without VGC :)
I personally wouldn’t ever split stay the resorts…. it’s not like at WDW where you have MK area and EPCOT area with a whole new set of experiences within walking distance….

BUT… IMO, the variety does make you appreciate the other one in both directions.

Of course, we go to DLand multiple times a year and own 3x the amount of VGC points to VDH points. We will also use Aulani points occasionally at VGC by backfilling a VGC reservation to free up more VGC points. That trick doesn’t work at VDH.
 
This is more for folks new to DVC who might be reading along thinking that if the rooms are "that bad" there is no reason to buy. One might infrequently draw a bad room, but at least from where I sit they are well-kept.
I think this is important context... I remember when I first started reading the DISboards I considered not buying DVC because folks made the mattresses sound so bad that I thought you might need to bring your own or that the rooms were not well taken care of compared to other hoteliers.

What I have come to find is that the rooms are in fact extremely well taken care of by the staff. That said, I think the workmanship quality of the hotels themselves can range from mediocre (VGF Resort Studios/VB) to average (BWV/BCV) to pretty stellar (VGF Villas Building/RIV).

Regarding the comments on Lakeshore... too many unknowns for me... The trust, the ability to potentially reallocate point values from the cabins, unknown about points charts, a Bus and Boat resort (generally not easy with strollers), I think we are more likely to visit than want to own... Probably will just continue to acquire more VGF points...
 
I think the big factor for me in your shoes would firstly be, do you feel like you have enough VGC points to stay there a reasonable amount in the accommodations you want?

If the answer to that is "no", I would want more VGC before anything else.

Of course, if you like VDH as well, a VDH contract opens up the possibility of split stays, gets you blue card status and all that comes with it, and those points could still be used at VGC when possible. Not to mention it's cheaper even than resale VGC.

So now that I spell it out, the argument for VDH is pretty strong. Just that damn ToT is such a turn off!

We don't have enough VGC to stay in a 1-bedroom every single trip for the amount of trips and days we like. Well, we do for the next two years due to some previous banking. But after that, we would have to do studios sometimes and 1 bedrooms sometimes. I would prefer 1 bedroom.

If we buy VDH, we would not do split stays because it would be too confusing for our son and honestly, kind of a pain for me. So we would alternate trips. We don't take a yearly trip. Sometimes we will have 18 months between trips. Other times maybe just 6 months. It will really depend on the year and what other vacations we take. We could take less trips and get into a 1 bedroom every time but I don't want to always space things out 18 months.
 

We don't have enough VGC to stay in a 1-bedroom every single trip for the amount of trips and days we like. Well, we do for the next two years due to some previous banking. But after that, we would have to do studios sometimes and 1 bedrooms sometimes. I would prefer 1 bedroom.

If we buy VDH, we would not do split stays because it would be too confusing for our son and honestly, kind of a pain for me. So we would alternate trips. We don't take a yearly trip. Sometimes we will have 18 months between trips. Other times maybe just 6 months. It will really depend on the year and what other vacations we take. We could take less trips and get into a 1 bedroom every time but I don't want to always space things out 18 months.
Less trips?!? 🫣
 
The points backing those rentals are coming from either (a) owners who are using a Disney-internal exchange for e.g. DCL or (b) breakage.

I believe this is true. I've been trying to estimate out how many points get swapped out for mainly cruises but also for Tokyo stays, etc.. From the number of posts I continually see about it (by they way, they nearly all go, "I know this is a bad value, but I don't care, it's easier than renting my points and getting a cruise that way") I think this is actually quite large.
 
To add to this, the past few projects started sales only 3 months or so before opening.
I think a lot of this has to do with that Disney has figured out that they can sell rooms during opening week at exorbitant rates to the usual group of influencers and bloggers. So Disney likely needs to have that locked in before they roll out the sales and Welcome Home Stays, etc. And yes, I know, for PIT, if you bought new points, you could convert previously booked rooms, but I think that was a small percentage of what happened. I except three months for LSL as well.
 
Biggest take away from this - meh incentives that Disney will try to make look far better when they likely advertise price increases for points that start immediately after these incentives end.
 
Last year, when they raised prices, they just increased the incentive amounts for the first period following the increase. But, as I recall,
if you looked at the net price per point, it was still a slightly higher cost than the last incentive period.

With few exceptions, when purchasing at an actively selling resort, there will never be a cheaper time to buy direct points than the current incentive period.

That said, it does feel psychologically satisfying to straddle one incentive period to another and helps you feel like you did get the best deal available to you at the time.
 
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Im a red headed cousin (resale only ; non Eligible to Extras).

I’m thinking of buying 150 CFW direct and selling 120 SSR.

Why should I not do this? Please talk me out of this. Please.
The dues at CFW are very high. Your yearly dues on 120 SSR to 150 CFW will go up by something like 80% ( in part because of the higher MFs, in part from the 30 extra points).
 
I believe this is true. I've been trying to estimate out how many points get swapped out for mainly cruises but also for Tokyo stays, etc.. From the number of posts I continually see about it (by they way, they nearly all go, "I know this is a bad value, but I don't care, it's easier than renting my points and getting a cruise that way") I think this is actually quite large.
I went to Moonlight Magic yesterday and met an older couple that said they used their points on cruises. I'm fairly certain a good amount of the people who use their points on cruises are people who bought in early like in the 90s and got such good value out of their points they don't care about squeezing as much value as possible out of them. They don't want to bother with renting them out and then turning around and booking the cruise and are at a point in their life where they simply just want an easy button that says exchange for Disney cruise.
 
Last year, when they raised prices, they just increased the incentive amounts for the first period following the increase. But, as I recall,
if you looked at the net price per point, it was still a slightly higher cost than the last incentive period.

With few exceptions, when purchasing at an actively selling resort, there will never be a cheaper time to buy direct points than the current incentive period.

That said, it does feel psychologically satisfying to straddle one incentive period to another and helps you feel like you did the get the best deal available to you at the time.
ahh the Kohls effect
 




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