Will this end up being the pandemic that cried wolf?

[msjprincess]

Not really because the trends were already in decline before the schools were ordered closed

Where? Cases in my state didn't start to level off until more than 3 weeks after schools closed.

 

[xuxa777]

The data will show that to be the case, the IHME model has been comically wrong, I do realize that most people see it like you are saying, It is pointless to argue or debate it. As time passses it will become more evident, but now in my opinion schools being closed did not have a big effect on the "curve", kids arent not a large transmission vector etc. , but social distancing did cause the curve to decrease , which people started much before the stay at homes. as they old adage says correlation is not causation. As everyone is really sensative to things now, not the time to discuss.

 

[sam_gordon]

This is what a downward trajectory looks like:

That spot between April 7 and 11... that's the point where China lifted its lockdown.
Here's what we have:

You're looking at the number of ACTIVE cases. I'm looking at the number of NEW cases each day. Please compare apples and apples. If you want to say the number of new cases (trend) each day continues to rise, I'm not sure what numbers you're looking at. And yes, I fully expect to see spikes every so often. I'm looking at the trend.

 

[RamblingMad]

In Massachusetts it was just announced the average age to date, of Covid deaths, is 81 year old . 97.5% of all deaths having underlying conditions.

Obesity is the number one underlying condition. The US isn’t exactly thin.

 

[godisney14]

No, it is possible it will die off with this first wave, not likely but still possible.

Fun fact if everyone in the world stayed completely 100% isolated for 2 weeks or so, the virus will be completely eradicated.

I know you said not likely, but that’s a definite NO as to whether SARS-COV-2 will die off in this wave. It’s not deadly enough to die off.
Let’s end that thinking here because to think otherwise is just too silly.

And, true, if the entire world were to isolate for 2-3 weeks, it would theoretically disappear in the human population. But, only if it was that easy.
And, that doesn’t mean it can’t come back because, as you know, this virus wasn’t from a human host.

In Massachusetts it was just announced the average age to date, of Covid deaths, is 81 year old . 97.5% of all deaths having underlying conditions.

I wonder what the 1 and 2 std dev is on that average. That’s more telling because we know not 100% of the deceased is 81 yo.

And as some have mentioned, you are missing the lasting effects of some infected patients, including in the asymptomatic population. It’s not just a flu, where you’re just back to normal. Feel free to read up on some studies or talk to cardio or radio at a hospital with COVID-19 patients, and let me know what you learn. Not in all patients, but also, not an insignificant proportion.

Is that accurate? According to the WH site, they want a "downward trajectory". I don't know that they require 14 consecutive days of lower cases.

Personally, I would consider this a "downward trajectory" (US numbers) since April 4.:
View attachment 489716

Certainly a negative slope.....but a very, very small slope if you were to calculate the line on Excel.

 

[goodeats]

Right, we just let everyone hurry up and get it and no big deal, it's just a virus killing 14,000 in LA. Is that the thinking here? Lock the old and disabled into sick wards and let a quarter million (assuming a much lower fatalaty rate once the old people are written off) of the rest of us die?

Yes, actually. People die of all sorts of things. Death from a virus is just one of them. I'm not sure why we (collectively) are romanticizing this. Especially if this virus is from an animal and not from a Chinese lab. Objectively, each death from this is not a tragedy. It just means their body could not fight it off. It could be me, it could be you, it could be my children, it could be my mother. It's different of course to each persons' loved ones but that's not what we're talking about here. The percentage of deaths to society matters. There comes a point where it's not worth society to save them. It's up to each person to protect themselves.

This is what a downward trajectory looks like:
View attachment 489738
That spot between April 7 and 11... that's the point where China lifted its lockdown.
Here's what we have:
View attachment 489739

For us to have a chart like this we need to track the recovery of each case. Are people being assumed to have resolved after a certain number of days or are they just staying on the chart?

 

[TLSnell1981]

Obesity is the number one underlying condition. The US isn’t exactly thin.

Where do smokers rank?

 

[sam_gordon]

Certainly a negative slope.....but a very, very small slope if you were to calculate the line on Excel.

Oh definitely. But down (no matter how slight) is better than flat or up IMO. Feel free to disagree.

 

[godisney14]

Oh definitely. But down (no matter how slight) is better than flat or up IMO. Feel free to disagree.

Not disagreeing on that.

 

[xuxa777]

I wonder what the 1 and 2 std dev is on that average. That’s more telling because we know not 100% of the deceased is 81 yo.

Data is all out there

https://www.boston.com/news/coronavirus/2020/04/20/massachusetts-coronavirus-covid-19-deaths

 

[Cogswel_Cogs]

 

[Cogswel_Cogs]

Updating

 

[RamblingMad]

Where do smokers rank?

It’s not an underlying health condition.

 

[godisney14]

Data is all out there

https://www.boston.com/news/coronavirus/2020/04/20/massachusetts-coronavirus-covid-19-deaths
View attachment 489750

Not exactly what I was asking for. Not sure whether you understand standard deviations.

But, helpful nonetheless. Thanks.

That website shows 69% of the hospitalized are under 80 years old, and 37% of deceased were under 80 years old.

BTW, in case you haven’t realized, the case count per 100,000 can tell two stories, one of which is meaningless without knowing another specific dataset. I’ll let you figure that out.

 

[jlwhitney]

Nothing else in Sweden is killing 100 people a day. For the last 10 years, Sweden averages just 250 deaths a day. Corona Virus has increased the number of people dying there a day by 40%. That's not normal.


Here is a report on SARS Vaccine testing. What you're talking about is a secondary TH2 immunopathologic response triggered by exposure to the SARS virus in vaccinated lab animals. This happened at very early stages of testing and it's something they were more or less expecting. The vaccines caused the TH2 response in some of the mice types used, the primates, and the ferrets. Some of the vaccines tested did not provoke this response in some mice and the hamsters. All of the vaccines induced protection against SARS-Coronavirus.


It could be quite a bit higher. Maybe R0 value of over 5 compared to 1.3 of flu.


This is why there is so much push to re-open the country. There are huge financial interests that need the rest of us to get back to work. They want us unable to refuse to put ourselves at greater risk.



Well, they are getting it pretty bad.


I lived in Brooklyn for 2 years, I can think of two things. First, Brooklyn and Queens both have airports, so increased contact with foreign travelers. Second, the median income and just the nature of work done in Manhattan means a larger portion are able to work from home.


Right, we just let everyone hurry up and get it and no big deal, it's just a virus killing 14,000 in LA. Is that the thinking here? Lock the old and disabled into sick wards and let a quarter million (assuming a much lower fatalaty rate once the old people are written off) of the rest of us die?



Most of us do what we must to survive and take risks to support that end. That's a part of life we all accept. But when what we do puts others at risk we have a greater responsibility to do them only when necessary.

The flu is a horrible comparison because you become symptomatic within a day or so and when one does get ill it is only the most horrible among us that continue to go out and about. And we have a vaccine for the flu that usually does a pretty good job of reducing the transmission of the most dangerous seasonal flu strains.


The CDC says that so far this flu season (a particularly bad one) we're averaging about 65 deaths a day from the flu. That's the whole country. At the peak of this flu season, we were losing 583 people a WEEK. In 2018 (an even worse flu season) the most deaths we had was 1600 in a WEEK.
Nearly 2000 people died yesterday from covid19. We're averaging over 2k dead a DAY from covid19.

This is a ridiculous comparison.


This is what a downward trajectory looks like:
View attachment 489738
That spot between April 7 and 11... that's the point where China lifted its lockdown.
Here's what we have:
View attachment 489739

The big problem with this is that most aren't being tested for recovered or being reported and we need recovered numbers .

 

[Cogswel_Cogs]

Smoking is gonna be a huge factor, and probably part of reason why death rates higher in males.

 

[xuxa777]

Not exactly what I was asking for. Not sure whether you understand standard deviations.

But, helpful nonetheless. Thanks.

That website shows 69% of the hospitalized are under 80 years old, and 37% of deceased were under 80 years old.

BTW, in case you haven’t realized, the case count per 100,000 can tell two stories, one of which is meaningless without knowing another specific dataset. I’ll let you figure that out.

I just provided you the data , you can interpret and analyze and come up with your own conclusions and opinions however you deem fit. No need to get personal.

 

[godisney14]

Smoking is gonna be a huge factor, and probably part of reason why death rates higher in males.

Smoking is a definite obvious since it involves the lungs. And it’s also obvious by now that any chronic health condition increases risk.

More reasons that Americans should be more cautious than some other countries around the world.

 

[Cogswel_Cogs]

The positive trend seems to have maxxed on the on April 12th.

 

[Cogswel_Cogs]