Will this end up being the pandemic that cried wolf?

[Jrb1979]

That is still up for debate, but we have already had that one, and there is no solid data at this time to say so either way.

No there may not be. But I'm still in the camp til they come up with a way to treat people who get it social distancing of some sort will be in place.

 

[mjkacmom]

https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/3/18/21184992/coronavirus-covid-19-flu-comparison-chart
This will get worse before it gets better.

 

[xuxa777]

No there may not be. But I'm still in the camp til they come up with a way to treat people who get it social distancing of some sort will be in place.

Totally agree and it should be

 

[okeydokey]

It might not end up being as bad. But as someone else said, numbers are lower cause of what we are doing by staying home.

This is it exactly. It not being as bad is a success story due to the steps we have taken. When we stop taking those steps it will get worse.

 

[Jrb1979]

Totally agree and it should be

We finally agree on something.

 

[xuxa777]

https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/3/18/21184992/coronavirus-covid-19-flu-comparison-chart
This will get worse before it gets better.

Those numbers on that vox article are not set in stone, just an estimate as is anyone's. That article was written 3/18, can we agree we have more info since then. This is when they were saying there would be 1.2-2 million deaths .

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

Yes, that is why I shared the actual data, it should help lessen the fears. I get that people are worried but with data coming out from the CDC showing it is not as bad as it has looked like. It is not my "flu thing" it is what the CDC is showing.

You're focusing on the wrong fears; that's the issue.

 

[JLTraveling]

I think if you are in an epicenter and know people who are or have been ill, your perception of the severity of this virus changes drastically. One day the situation seems manageable and then someone you know falls gravely ill. One day you think things might be improving and you read about a nursing home whose residents are dying. One day you think the sun is shining and it can’t be all that bad and you see or about a refrigerator truck parking in your area. I wouldn’t wish this on my worst enemy. But here we are.

This. I'm in New Orleans, so I watched shocked and appalled as Florida refused to close the beaches while we were already weeks into lockdown, on the verge of running out of ventilators, and building a field hospital in the Convention Center. Meanwhile, my cousin, an RN at a Florida hospital with zero cases was laughing at me for thinking the beaches needed to close. Now that same cousin's working an ICU full of COVID cases and terrified about what's still to come. Once it hits home, everything changes.

 

[Cogswel_Cogs]

The reason you closing the schools is to keep th ekids from spreading it not to save their lives. If the kids could stay in school 24 hrs nobody would have closed them.
I don't get the point at all. The most dangerous person is the person who doesn't know hes spreading it. Thats why I can't understand why they kep schools open here so long. On op of that they transitioned horribly to a food/lunch service. Where they should have taken a day or so to better make it safer. Nobody would have starved if they took a day or so to better implement a safer plan like many other states set up..

 

[dvcgirl67]

I don't think people really want it to be worse, they are just reluctant to accept the changing numbers because people generally are slow to accept change. A lot has been thrown at us in a short period of time and it is difficult to quickly change.

Yes, a lot has been thrown at us all... agreed.

But, we can all agree that this virus isn't going anywhere for the short to medium term? And we can probably even agree that the virus has stopped spreading as quickly in our country because 90% of us have been told to go home if we're not essential workers.

As states begin to reopen, and people come back together, the virus will spread and the hospitals will begin to see a spike in COVID-19 patients. If the hospitals get too full, restrictions will be tightened again....and so on. That's how it's going to go for some time.

I can see a situation that may arise where some states acting irresponsibly by opening up too much, too quickly, impacts neighboring states. Travel could be restricted between states as a result. Florida's governor put a 14 day quarantine in place for people traveling from the NY Metro area. If Florida gets too hot, other states may put the same quarantine in place for people flying from there. Every country eventually stopped flights from China. Now, if you fly into China you need to quarantine in a government facility for 14 days...on your dime.

I heard a travel podcast just last week where someone called the host and wondered what the likelihood of their trip to northern Italy going forward in early June. I mean, I'm not sure how anyone thinks that non-essential travel is happening anywhere....anytime soon. A poster on another board on this site was adamant that "Florida won't let the cruise ship industry collapse because Florida cares too much about the tourist industry!" Ok. I wondered what color the sky is on the planet where she's currently living.

I believe we're going to look back on Phase One of this event as the easiest part. The part where we just had to stay home. Going back out, trusting strangers, neighboring states...etc, will be a lot harder.

 

[xuxa777]

Yes, a lot has been thrown at us all... agreed.

But, we can all agree that this virus isn't going anywhere for the short to medium term? And we can probably even agree that the virus has stopped spreading as quickly in our country because 90% of us have been told to go home if we're not essential workers.

No, it is possible it will die off with this first wave, not likely but still possible. Most likely it will behave like any coronavirus, lessen in the summer and then pop back up in the winter.

Fun fact if everyone in the world stayed completely 100% isolated for 2 weeks or so, the virus will be completely eradicated.

As states begin to reopen, and people come back together, the virus will spread and the hospitals will begin to see a spike in COVID-19 patients. If the hospitals get too full, restrictions will be tightened again....and so on. That's how it's going to go for some time.

That is absolutely what should happen nothing less, if a rise in the trend of hospitalizations occurs, pretty much the universal plan with varying timelines

I believe we're going to look back on Phase One of this event as the easiest part. The part where we just had to stay home. Going back out, trusting strangers, neighboring states...etc, will be a lot harder.

Yes the fear of going out will be the biggest hurdle

 

[WVMomof3]

So that is your takeaway from the data? If so we should close schools for the year for the flu too.

I am all for being skeptical but it seems a lot want the virus to be worse than it actually is after looking at the real data of what is happening.

Why would we close school during a normal flu season? I don't recall ever reading about a shortage of ventilators, PPE equipment, ICU capacity, morgue capacity etc during a normal flu season. Do you? According to the CDC during the 2018-19 Flu season, which runs from approximately October - April, there were approximately 34,200 deaths from Influenza. Since our first case in US, I believe reported on Jan 21, we have over 43,000 deaths and we certainly haven't seen the last of it yet. So more deaths over a shorter period and there were no social distancing required during that Flu season. To many people it will never be abundantly clear that the closing of the schools saved lives. We can only see what happened after the safety measures were put in place.

It seems that a lot want the virus to not be a big deal after looking at the real data of what is happening.

 

[choirfarm]

Why would we close school during a normal flu season? I don't recall ever reading about a shortage of ventilators, PPE equipment, ICU capacity, morgue capacity etc during a normal flu season. Do you? According to the CDC during the 2018-19 Flu season, which runs from approximately October - April, there were approximately 34,200 deaths from Influenza. Since our first case in US, I believe reported on Jan 21, we have over 43,000 deaths and we certainly haven't seen the last of it yet. So more deaths over a shorter period and there were no social distancing required during that Flu season. To many people it will never be abundantly clear that the closing of the schools saved lives. We can only see what happened after the safety measures were put in place.

It seems that a lot want the virus to not be a big deal after looking at the real data of what is happening.

Actually, every single year several school districts close for a few days to a week because of the flu. So, I fully expect to see closings off and on because of Covid this year. To see a discussion about how Covid might affect daycares and schools see this thread
https://www.disboards.com/threads/i-cant-stop-thinking-about-this.3799920/page-2#post-61803029

 

[xuxa777]

In Massachusetts it was just announced the average age to date, of Covid deaths, is 81 year old . 97.5% of all deaths having underlying conditions.

 

[HeatherC]

In Massachusetts it was just announced the average age to date, of Covid deaths, is 81. 97.5% of all deaths having underlying conditions.

Still sucks and people are still getting sick and dying. That also means that not everyone is elderly that is getting this.

 

[okeydokey]

In Massachusetts it was just announced the average age to date, of Covid deaths, is 81 year old . 97.5% of all deaths having underlying conditions.

Nevermind. I work in disaster management and these threads are just disheartening.

 

[xuxa777]

Still sucks and people are still getting sick and dying.

That is obvious , but with the numerous posters saying that the virus is dangerous and deadly to all ages, the data is showing that it is clearly not.

 

[KBoopaloo]

In Massachusetts it was just announced the average age to date, of Covid deaths, is 81 year old . 97.5% of all deaths having underlying conditions.

The Governor here also announced that schools will be closed the rest of the year (most schools here end in mid June) and likened this time to being late in the third quarter or early in the fourth quarter of a game you are winning where you can’t let up too early and let the other team back in the game to come back and beat you. The best analogy I have heard yet for why we need to not push the envelope on opening things up too soon.

 

[xuxa777]

Nevermind. I work in disaster management and these threads are just disheartening.

Why is that?

 

[dvcgirl67]

[QUOTE="xuxa777, post: 61803379, member: 450016"

That is absolutely what should happen nothing less, if a rise in the trend of hospitalizations occurs, pretty much the universal plan with varying timelines

[/QUOTE]

Ok, we agree on that. What about the CDC "open up America again"....or whatever they're calling it? The part about cases needing to decline for 14 consecutive days before moving into "phase one"? Because Georgia hasn't met that criteria. And yet, their governor is opening up. Mayors are fighting back against him, including the mayor of Atlanta.

None of this is going to work if we do all go by the same set of rules. Without any leadership at all from the top, we're left with this set of "guidelines", "suggestions" if you will....whatever you want to call them.... from the CDC. If we can't all, as states, agree to go by that *very* low bar before entering into "phase one", then this is going to go in fits and starts for much, much longer than it needs to go.

Opening up too soon is sooooo much worse than opening up a few days later than you think you should. That extra time will soothe the public and make people feel safer. The fear factor is already baked in, can't everyone see that?