Will the Return of AP's Affect the Resale Market?

[lilsonicfan]

1) If buying direct, would you still go SSR or would you prefer another property with the 7-11m window?

2) Do you care about access to future resorts once the 2042 expire or ever going to VDH?

3) You can go hybrid (150 direct and 50+ resale). I’d get the resale first and then by in at the “member ad-on rate”.

4) Would having an AP and DVC change how often your family goes to Disney?

5) Buying direct doesn’t make sense for many people at today’s resale prices. But…. this will definitely change the calculation for some when considering resale only vs hybrid.

6) Owning hybrid offers some peace of mind for the next 30+ years depending on holding time.

All good questions to consider. 1) maybe another resort... like VGF... but I really don't know, probably b/c we really don't go to WDW super often and our last trip was cancelled due to the pandemic.
2) Future resorts - I don't care at this point, but that opinion could potentially change after 2042... as for VDH, also don't know if I care that much, tbh there are so many hotels that are actually closer than the disneyland hotel.
3) definitely something to keep in mind as an option.
4) Probably not. DH doesn't love Disney to begin with, but also it is at least an 8-10 hour trip to get to Florida and I don't know that we would really do this more, especially if it was just to try to make up the price of an AP.
5) I totally agree and if we lived closer, I'd no doubt consider a hybrid.
6) very fair!

 

[AstroBlasters]

All good questions to consider. 1) maybe another resort... like VGF... but I really don't know, probably b/c we really don't go to WDW super often and our last trip was cancelled due to the pandemic.
2) Future resorts - I don't care at this point, but that opinion could potentially change after 2042... as for VDH, also don't know if I care that much, tbh there are so many hotels that are actually closer than the disneyland hotel.
3) definitely something to keep in mind as an option.
4) Probably not. DH doesn't love Disney to begin with, but also it is at least an 8-10 hour trip to get to Florida and I don't know that we would really do this more, especially if it was just to try to make up the price of an AP.
5) I totally agree and if we lived closer, I'd no doubt consider a hybrid.
6) very fair!

May I ask why you are considering buying in if you don’t go that often and if your DH doesn’t love to go?

Have you considered renting some points first?

We rented at BLT and the size of the room and the wonderful cast members are what sprinkled me with DVC pixie dust.

 

[lilsonicfan]

May I ask why you are considering buying in if you don’t go that often and if your DH doesn’t love to go?

Have you considered renting some points first?

We rented at BLT and the size of the room and the wonderful cast members are what sprinkled me with DVC pixie dust.

We are looking at a contract with enough points to allow a trip every 2 years or so, so not a massive contract. But also potentially to use at Aulani (so I'm also looking at points there) since we are west coast. Just to use Aulani as an example, we did rent point there last month. For 4 nights, I needed 184 pts which cost close to $3,500. And after we stayed, we all thought we could have used another 3-4 nights (we stayed the other nights in Waikiki, but of course preferred Aulani). So if I'm renting, that's $7,000 for 8 nights at Aulani. In my view, I can buy in (resale) and within 3 trips or less, I'll have "made up the value" plus have the opportunity to stay at WDW if we decide to go there instead. Plus, I'd like some control over my own reservation, including modifying days or making room requests without having to rely on the member renting to me.

 

[AstroBlasters]

We are looking at a contract with enough points to allow a trip every 2 years or so, so not a massive contract. But also potentially to use at Aulani (so I'm also looking at points there) since we are west coast. Just to use Aulani as an example, we did rent point there last month. For 4 nights, I needed 184 pts which cost close to $3,500. And after we stayed, we all thought we could have used another 3-4 nights (we stayed the other nights in Waikiki, but of course preferred Aulani). So if I'm renting, that's $7,000 for 8 nights at Aulani. In my view, I can buy in (resale) and within 3 trips or less, I'll have "made up the value" plus have the opportunity to stay at WDW if we decide to go there instead. Plus, I'd like some control over my own reservation, including modifying days or making room requests without having to rely on the member renting to me.

Paying for 3-nights in a Parlor Suite at $1546/ night before tax at Aulani is what sealed the DVC deal for my family as well. We did a split stay with Hilton Hawaiian Village, but didn’t love the inter-trip move.

Now we have 600 Aulani points (400 resale/ 200 direct) and 400 resale points at the Grand Californian.

Good luck in your search!

 

[hglenn]

From this post, it seems that new buyers can get in now with as little as 100 points! Again, you don't get the membership extras...ie: discounts, access to Sorcerer pass and the DVC Y...but you can use the 100 points at RIV and future resorts since they will be direct

https://www.disboards.com/threads/minimum-points.3892651/post-64722352

I do wonder what direct sales would do if they reduced the membership extras to 100 points.... I think a lot of people would jump on that offer.

 

[RichVIII]

Agree with OPs who say net neutral. Overall contracts have dropped merely on the news on the net that prices were reasonable. I think APs have been a sticking point for many but that was also in a list of other complaints. If you have an AP, you are committing yourself to (more likely) more time in the park, adding on Genie, etc. so if you are really mad, you are getting out in general. The drop to 100 I think is also a reflection of the economy and people wanting in but not at the higher dollar. I am sure the pitch is, you can easily add on another 50 points in 10 minutes down the road when you are ready (after their first trip).

 

[Sandisw]

I do wonder what direct sales would do if they reduced the membership extras to 100 points.... I think a lot of people would jump on that offer.

I am sure it would spark some people to go direct…but, at least now, someone can start smaller, and then add on in a year or two….

 

[OKW Lover]

Will the return of AP's have an effect on the resale market? As we have heard over and over, some (significant?) number of owners are looking to exit DVC ownership due to the lack of AP's.

I doubt there would be any impact at all. I don't believe that there were a great number of owners looking to get out of DVC because of the AP issue.

 

[AstroBlasters]

I doubt there would be any impact at all. I don't believe that there were a great number of owners looking to get out of DVC because of the AP issue.

Really? I feel like it’s a complaint I have to read or hear about constantly on these boards and in community podcasts.

 

[Sandisw]

Really? I feel like it’s a complaint I have to read or hear about constantly on these boards and in community podcasts.

But, this group and others are a very small sample size of all the DVC owners…many of whom are the same ones.

Say 10% of DVC owners make up these communities and are all complaining…it seems like everyone is uoset, but no one reallt knows what that other 90% think…

 

[AstroBlasters]

But, this group and others are a very small sample size of all the DVC owners…many of whom are the same ones.

Say 10% of DVC owners make up these communities and are all complaining…it seems like everyone is uoset, but no one reallt knows what that other 90% think…

Good perspective.

 

[Huskerpaul]

I doubt there would be any impact at all. I don't believe that there were a great number of owners looking to get out of DVC because of the AP issue.

I would also guess that folks that had decided to sell were listing as many "wrongs" as possible, including lack of AP for blue card holders, as just one of their many reasons for being done with Disney.

 

[CarolMN]

I doubt there would be any impact at all. I don't believe that there were a great number of owners looking to get out of DVC because of the AP issue.

Really? I feel like it’s a complaint I have to read or hear about constantly on these boards and in community podcasts.

I'm sure a few sold, but IMO, it had more of an impact on add-on decisions than it did on a member's decision to sell.

 

[Paul Stupin]

Will the return of AP's have an effect on the resale market? As we have heard over and over, some (significant?) number of owners are looking to exit DVC ownership due to the lack of AP's. Will we see some number of contracts get pulled from the market as this singular complaint have been removed from the equation? Thoughts?

I think it’s bound to have an effect on the resale market. Depending on frequency of travel and theme park attendance, at least some of those cheap deals being constantly trumpeted aren’t as cheap if you have to buy tickets. So some possible sellers won’t sell, while some possible buyers will switch to direct. I think both scenarios cause the market to contract. I think resale prices go up.

 

[pinkxray]

I do think it will sway a small amount of people to go direct. I only own 60pts direct at VGF. The rest of my points are resale at SSR. I am currently saving to get 100-150 pts at Poly2. It is hard not to take that money and buy resale at the current prices. However, as a Disney fan the FOMO of the blue card perks is what is making me hold steady to get direct Poly 2 points. I am very happy to see the APs return. I hope they keep adding perks, as small as they may be to the blue card.

 

[tidefan]

Actually, I think that the biggest factor will be that more people will be looking to add-on now that they can actually use their membership multiple times a year much more "economically" (yes, that is very relative...) than they could have in the past. Without APs, it was harder to justify keeping large point totals in a membership with the dues outlay if you are only getting 1 trip a year. With the AP, you can "justify" to yourself that making multiple trips now became much more feasible.

So, I still think there will be plenty of supply, but I can definitely see the demand side going higher because of this.

 

[sethschroeder]

Not sure how much but something.

People had more points than they could use for a single trip in a year and its not a great deal to stay DVC when not going to the parks.

 

[Straulin]

You have one year to activate the voucher/pass. So, yes, if you buy next week, you will still be eligible to activate it next February...and your pass will begin in Feb 2024.

Once sold, it can't be taken away. Now, if something happens and you don't get there to activate it before next April, then it just simply holds it value and if passes are not available after it expires, you won't be able to get another one.

But, as long as you make it there before that one year, you are good to go!

I wasn’t aware of this activation stuff. Very good information. We have two trips already scheduled in the next year so were going to buy while we opportunity was there.

How does that work with renewing? If you don’t renew until the end of the one month or so grace period after your pass expires, does the new expiration date adjust based upon when you activate it, your renewal date, or the date you actually renew?

 

[CarolynFH]

How does that work with renewing? If you don’t renew until the end of the one month or so grace period after your pass expires, does the new expiration date adjust based upon when you activate it, your renewal date, or the date you actually renew?

The new pass takes effect on the expiration date of the old one, whether you renew early in the renewal window (60 days before expiration) or late (30 days after expiration). For instance, if you first use your AP on July 1, 2023, the new one takes effect on July 1, 2024. If you don't renew, the old one is still good for park entry on July 1, 2024, but not after that.

 

[ML_LovesDisney]

Yeah I sort of see it as two effects - those who were listing their contracts b/c they were unhappy at not having APs now pull their listings and keep them.... which would mean less supply for resale.... but then people considering resale who might now turn to direct, thus lessening the demand for resale.

Direct, for the purpose of buying an AP, does not make sense for someone like me who is unlikely to even visit FL once a year, let alone more than once. A 10 day pass is still significantly cheaper than an AP, after all.

Yeah, I just did the math and for a family of 4; 4 Incredi-passes (would need this since we travel on school break) is about $6000. Buying park hoppers by the day is about the same cost. Not noticeably more, not noticeably less, for the dates we plan to travel next year. Sorcerer's would be a savings though if we could travel on two non school breaks, but not an option with a kiddo in high school. Hopefully in 3 years!