Will DVC offer a Black Friday Special deal

[DVC Dude]

The last great price discount deal from Disney was Black Friday 2010 - three years ago.

If you bought 250 points+ at BLT the price was $120 (minus a $18 discount) = $102 pp

Then they offered a 20% Black Friday discount of $102pp - $10.20 (10% discount Friday to Sunday sale) = $91.80 pp

Then they gave you 2010 points for one month of dues payments ($0.315 pp)

The final cost of BLT (if you use a $10 pp value for the 2010) = $82 pp

Starting Price = $120
Net sale price = $82
Discount = 32% off starting price

-----------------------------------

Here is my dream 2013 sale for VGF that would make me jump at a contract

$150 - 32% discount ($48) = $102 per point price for VGF

 

[disneynutz]

DVD/DVC has had 3 upper management changes since that deal. I get the feeling that the new guy is trying to figure out what to do and we as owners may be in for a bumpy ride.

DVD might raise prices for VGF then offer a discount but in the past they would wait a couple of months between the increase and the "deal" and I don't know if they have the time.

Bill

 

[Deb & Bill]

Black Friday is so last year with all the stores being open on Thanksgiving Day.

 

[cpc430]

If they did offer any type of deal, how would a prospective buyer find out? Facebook? Or are offers like this only around for current owners?

 

[bakerworld]

2010 they called ... repeatedly

 

[lovin'fl]

Was that 20% off of classic resorts too. If they offered 20% off the $130pp BWV rate....hmmmmm, I might buy that 50 points I want at BWV. Of course I expect we'd likely go on a waitlist that might take 4 months to fill.

 

[jerseyduke]

Octobers numbers, particularly the VGF ones, have probably left a lot of people at DVC/DVD scratching their heads. October sales at VGF were horrid, I think it has them rethinking POLY. If November sales are bad as well, it should be really interesting.

Based on October, some kind of special may be in the future.

 

[DVC Dude]

I also recall some special sales near the end of the year where they gave discounts and free year or two of points.

Either way, I am waiting for something significant before I buy VGF or I will just book that resort at 7 months with cheap SSR points.

 

[DizBub]

Yeah, that Black Friday sale was awesome. We took advantage of it and added 100 points at BLT. Feeling pretty good about it too. Who knew that would be the last really good incentive DVC would offer?

Does anyone know just how successful the Buy 100 get 20 extra every year was? I think that was for AKV and Aulani only.

 

[glvsav37]

Sticking my nose in this tread. Nothing to offer....but keeping an ear in this.

 

[tjkraz]

One of the dynamics DVC is weighing right now relates to historical pricing on VGF. Pricing opened at $145 and is now stuck at $150. Although DVC never made any promises that the $145 would be a "lowest price ever", many buyers made that assumption.

In the past, DVC has put itself in situations where initial prices ended up being higher than subsequent rates. If memory serves, the initial pricing on BLT (net of incentives) was around $112 per point. Within 6 months it had dropped into the low $90s due to the recession. These types of drops have never sat well with owners. At a time when DVC is more concerned about its image than it was 5 years ago, they don't want thousands of buyers discovering that they could have paid less if they'd waited 6 months.

Deep incentives also tend to have a negative impact on the resale market. For the longest time, BLT resale prices settled around $90 per point, mostly because that's what SOME owners could afford to accept for their contract. People who had paid $100-160 for their BLT points didn't do nearly as well with that resale price. And low resale prices certainly do impact DVC's own ability to sell.

Will VGF go down to $145 again (via incentives)? Possibly.

Will it go lower than $145? Also possible...but somewhat less likely.

Don't be surprised if DVC tries to weather the storm through the holidays, and re-evaluates after the first of the year.

 

[WDW-BWV]

The problem with the October sales report for GFV is that the truth is out about the equilibrium between supply and demand for member points.

In short it's not a good value it will never be a good value and the price has arrived to the upper limits!

 

[Shellandscott]

Another factor at least for me is the whole FP+ roll out. At this point we are testing it in December. My DH who is/was the disney nut in the family is ready to sell what we own and throw in the towel. Booking 60 days in advance, limit to 3 per park, really only 1 at Epcot and linking it to other people so we can all go on the same ride at the same time. Too much work and worry for a vacation. We were one of the people on the "call us as soon as you know something" list with our DVC rep. for VGF. Have not bought, may not buy at all. Just saying this has had an effect on our purchase so it may also be effecting others.

 

[tripletsmama]

Another factor at least for me is the whole FP+ roll out. At this point we are testing it in December. My DH who is/was the disney nut in the family is ready to sell what we own and throw in the towel. Booking 60 days in advance, limit to 3 per park, really only 1 at Epcot and linking it to other people so we can all go on the same ride at the same time. Too much work and worry for a vacation. We were one of the people on the "call us as soon as you know something" list with our DVC rep. for VGF. Have not bought, may not buy at all. Just saying this has had an effect on our purchase so it may also be effecting others.

What do you mean only 1 at Epcot? We used fp+ last month at Epcot for Soarin, Test Track, and Maelstrom.

 

[cseca]

What do you mean only 1 at Epcot? We used fp+ last month at Epcot for Soarin, Test Track, and Maelstrom.

There has been a change to the FP+ option at EPCOT. The rides are tiered. TT and Soarin and Maelstrom in tier 1 which you can pick only 1 out of the list.
And the other 2 FP+s you will have to pick from Tier 2.

 

[Nabas]

I'm not so sure Disney will offer incentives for VGF. Here's my twisted thinking why ...

AKV will sell out some time in the first half of 2014. After that, Disney will be advertising only Aulani and VGF until the Poly becomes available in 2015. Yes, those of us "in the know" understand that we can purchase anywhere but, I suspect, most DVC direct buyers are unaware of this. More so than on the resale market, direct buyers tend to be impulse buyers. And, based on the waiting lists that developed earlier this year at several resorts, it appears Disney doesn't have that much inventory ready to sell at other WDW DVCs.

Even if the selling pace continues at October's horrid numbers, VGF will still sell out some time in 2015. Considering this is the slow season (DVC buyers tend to purchase in the spring and summer, when vacations are on the mind) and AKV will be sold out soon, VGF sales should pick up considerably next year.

It seems like Disney is rushing the Poly DVC to fill a potential DVC inventory gap. If VGF sales were brisk and it sold out in late 2014, exactly what would DVC guides have available to sell in the first half of 2015?

Unlike 2010, the economy is not tanking and Disney is not sitting on inventory at 3 large resorts (SSR, BLT, and AKV).

Countering this line of thought is the possibility that Disney is worried that VGF sales will fall even further. If the Poly DVC starts being offered and VGF is not sold out, I could imagine it becoming extremely difficult for Disney to sell the remaining VGF points, major egg on the face for the "flagship" resort.

Furthermore, no one at Disney wants to see poor sales. Even if VGF sold out early, then that's an inventory problem for 2015. In business (and life), you tend to focus on today's problems, not about potential problems 2 years from now.

 

[1153rsmith]

There has been a change to the FP+ option at EPCOT. The rides are tiered. TT and Soarin and Maelstrom in tier 1 which you can pick only 1 out of the list.
And the other 2 FP+s you will have to pick from Tier 2.

For the life of me, I don't understand how Disney can equate Maelstrom with Test Track and Soarin'. I will wait in line to ride TT and Soarin'.... I waited the first time for Maelstrom and was very disappointed.

I am not sure I am going to like FP+. I plan my whole life, I would like to not have to plan so much for a vacation. How do I know 6 months out where I want to eat, and 2 months out what I want to ride and on what day. Disney is taking all the fun out of WDW.

 

[sweetdana]

There has been a change to the FP+ option at EPCOT. The rides are tiered. TT and Soarin and Maelstrom in tier 1 which you can pick only 1 out of the list.
And the other 2 FP+s you will have to pick from Tier 2.

I CANNOT BELIEVE THIS!

You cannot ride soarin and TT on FP on the same day??????????????????????????????????????????

This would be okay if the paper machines stay.. this would not be soooo okay if the paper machines go away..

 

[DeeCee735]

I CANNOT BELIEVE THIS!

You cannot ride soarin and TT on FP on the same day??????????????????????????????????????????

This would be okay if the paper machines stay.. this would not be soooo okay if the paper machines go away..

huh?
I FP+ for TT, Soarin & Mission Space 3 days ago, all for the same day for both my DH & I. It went off without a glitch. It was GREAT! So far, I really like FP+.
We were also able to cancel all our FP'S for AKP and switch them to MK - Pirates, Space Mountain and HM, all on the day we decided not to go to AKP and all while standing on Main Street. It worked out great.

 

[DeeCee735]

Octobers numbers, particularly the VGF ones, have probably left a lot of people at DVC/DVD scratching their heads. October sales at VGF were horrid, I think it has them rethinking POLY. If November sales are bad as well, it should be really interesting.

Based on October, some kind of special may be in the future.

Points per night are too high and buy in price has become ridiculous. Just MHO, but I don't think I'm alone in my thinking