Why?

[erc]

Considering how few people with symptoms worldwide are being tested we have no idea what the mortality percentages are.

I always wonder how they get the flu numbers too because I have never gotten tested when I had flu symptoms. It was always just obvious when I go from chills to sweating and all over body aches. Yet they somehow have an estimate of how many flu infections they have every year to arrive at a seasonal flu fatality rate without testing every single flu case.

 

[BuckeyeBama]

Believes but lacks the data to know either way

We either trust scientists who have no reason to lie, or people who do. I can't make anyone trust science, and don't know why I would try?

Have a great day!

 

[Minniesgal]

We either trust scientists who have no reason to lie, or people who do. I can't make anyone trust science, and don't know why I would try?

Have a great day!

Without data it isn't actually science that was my point true science is evidence led but at the point all the scientists are doing is making experience based judgements and conjecture they don't really know.

 

[BuckeyeBama]

Without data it isn't actually science that was my point true science is evidence led but at the point all the scientists are doing is making experience based judgements and conjecture they don't really know.

Whose judgement is better than the judgement of the scientists who have spent their lives studying viruses, including many very similar to this one?

Really, if you just don't want to listen to them, that is fine. But don't pretend that they are walking around in the dark. They are not. It might comfort you to believe otherwise, but that doesn't make it true.

 

[BuckeyeBama]

I always wonder how they get the flu numbers too because I have never gotten tested when I had flu symptoms. It was always just obvious when I go from chills to sweating and all over body aches. Yet they somehow have an estimate of how many flu infections they have every year to arrive at a seasonal flu fatality rate without testing every single flu case.

The flu is different. They have a case history for each variant of the flu out there. When patients are tested, they know know a ton. For instance, for each variant they know the percentage of cases that will be minor and not even result in a doctor visit. They know what percentage will not even show symptoms (generally about 16% of those with the flu are totally asymptomatic. They are contagious, but they never show symptoms). They know what percentage get sick enough to actually require a test. They know what percentage end up in the hospital. And they know the percentage that will die.

As a result, from the known data points available, they are able to fill in the other figures.

We do not have that for this virus yet - probably be years before we do.

 

[Farro]

The flu is different. They have a case history for each variant of the flu out there. When patients are tested, they know know a ton. For instance, for each variant they know the percentage of cases that will be minor and not even result in a doctor visit. They know what percentage will not even show symptoms (generally about 16% of those with the flu are totally asymptomatic. They are contagious, but they never show symptoms). They know what percentage get sick enough to actually require a test. They know what percentage end up in the hospital. And they know the percentage that will die.

As a result, from the known data points available, they are able to fill in the other figures.

We do not have that for this virus yet - probably be years before we do.

So aren't you and @Minniesgal essentially saying the same thing?

 

[BuckeyeBama]

So aren't you and @Minniesgal essentially saying the same thing?

There is a difference between recognizing the need to continue to study this and thinking that we are walking around in the dark.

 

[Heather07438]

Believes but lacks the data to know either way

The evidence continues to support that this is much more severe than flu and to a greater range of people. You are correct, all the data is not in yet. The overall data we do have so far has followed the projections and that's why it continues to be relied and built upon.

Italy right now is proving some of the original projections about how bad the potential can be. While the elderly play a role in that data, there are plenty of people in other age groups dying of a survivable condition because there isn't enough care to go around simultaneously, and it's only the beginning. US is a couple weeks behind in transmission rates from Italy so we still have an opportunity to alter our outcome. The more people in the way of that progress only makes it that much harder.

 

[Farro]

I feel like we are all kind of saying the same thing.

We don't know exact figures on how deadly yet the disease itself is, but we know how deadly it can be in situations where hospitals are overwhelmed and unable to give proper medical care.
And slowing the spread is key.

 

[Jen81NYC]

In the past hour or two, both Spain and France have shut down everything except grocery stores and pharmacies. But I guess some people are just determined to minimize until the US has to resort to something similar, sigh

 

[RamblingMad]

In the past hour or two, both Spain and France have shut down everything except grocery stores and pharmacies. But I guess some people are just determined to minimize until the US has to resort to something similar, sigh

Yep. The reaction here is ridiculous compared to what is going on in Europe.

 

[Farro]

In the past hour or two, both Spain and France have shut down everything except grocery stores and pharmacies. But I guess some people are just determined to minimize until the US has to resort to something similar, sigh

Honestly, what people? Original poster?

Yep. The reaction here is ridiculous compared to what is going on in Europe.

Who? Who are you speaking of? On this thread?

I see people having discussions on different aspects of why it's so serious, not that it isn't.

 

[Jen81NYC]

Honestly, what people? Original poster?



Who? Who are you speaking of? On this thread?

I see people having discussions on different aspects of why it's so serious, not that it isn't.

The OP and a couple of others who are still sticking to the “who can say who’s right” line. But I agree most of the responses have been encouraging in terms of understanding the concern!

 

[jiminyC_fan]

I've learned a few things from this thread.

1. Elderly will die anyway so let's not worry about them.

2. We should just carry on with our lives and not think of others.

3. Science not compassion

4. Doctors are saying it's not bad

5. Doctors are blowing things out of proportion

6. The best one is don't touch your face, wash your hands and you won't get it.

SMH

 

[Farro]

I've learned a few things from this thread.

1. Elderly will die anyway so let's not worry about them.

2. We should just carry on with our lives and not think of others.

3. Science not compassion

4. Doctors are saying it's not bad

5. Doctors are blowing things out of proportion

6. The best one is don't touch your face, wash your hands and you won't get it.

SMH

That's all you wanted to see/learn.

If you took from what I (I saw your wow face on my post) and others said that we actually think it's okay for the elderly to die, no big deal, then not much to say.

If anyone thinks that's what I meant, then not much to say.

 

[Toolulu22]

In the past hour or two, both Spain and France have shut down everything except grocery stores and pharmacies. But I guess some people are just determined to minimize until the US has to resort to something similar, sigh

Yep. The reaction here is ridiculous compared to what is going on in Europe.

Where I live there have been numerous confirmed cases and I suspect many more. Restaurants are spacIng people out, schools and librarys are closing. Events are being canceled. Our governor just lifted the yearly 180 teaching day requirement for schools, so they can close for a period of time if need be. Movie theaters are allowing less guests.

But, people are still going out to eat, to the movies etc. I just saw an ad for a local casino that described its protocol for wiping down machines etc. If people are still going out to casinos, movies, the mall, and so on— I truly have to wonder what it will take to stop the spread.

We stayed home today and cleaned our yard and the cars- no chance of catching the virus. At least today. Yay! I’m hoping I don’t have to go back to work next Wednesday with 2500 people. We’re closed Monday and Tuesday for deep cleaning- which is interesting. Why are you deep cleaning BEFORE someone is deemed as being infected. Hum.....

 

[RamblingMad]

Who? Who are you speaking of? On this thread?

I see people having discussions on different aspects of why it's so serious, not that it isn't.

What I'm seeing in the US.

Here's Italy.

https://milano.repubblica.it/cronac...530/?ref=RHPPTP-BL-I251300660-C12-P2-S1.12-T1
"We're close to the point of no return for intensive care beds in Lombardy. We have 15 to 20 intensive care beds left. With 85 new people entering ICU every day and 2 or 3 leaving, we're close to the point of no return. "There are no more ambulances" - Lombardy Welfare Councilor Gallera added - "and therefore someone will have to wait late in the evening." [source]

 

[sam_gordon]

That's all you wanted to see/learn.

If you took from what I (I saw your wow face on my post) and others said that we actually think it's okay for the elderly to die, no big deal, then not much to say.

If anyone thinks that's what I meant, then not much to say.

It's ok. Apparently I'm minimizing and don't care about others.

 

[hellow]

OK, I'm sorry, I don't get it. Why is corona virus so scary? Scary enough to close schools, Disney, various businesses, sporting events, travel bans, "social distancing", etc.

I get it. The mortality rate *IF* you get it is much higher than the flu. BUT, most of the deaths are those who have underlying medical issues. Shouldn't they be used to taking extra precautions at this time of year so they don't get the flu anyway? Sure, there's a vaccine for the flu, but that doesn't mean you won't catch it. The vaccine isn't always for the correct strain.

CDC estimates 36M - 55M in the US alone will come down with the flu, resulting in 22k-55k deaths. Source
There have been 146K corona cases WORLDWIDE resulting in 5K deaths. Source
The flu kills 291k-646K worldwide each year. Source
Over 150K died world wide from H1N1 in 2009. Source

So the flu regularly KILLS more people every year than the number of corona virus cases.
H1N1 killed more people than there are corona cases. Yes, obviously the number of corona cases will increase. But why was there no panic in 2009?
Is this being blown out of proportion?

I'm sure I'll get blasted for asking the question

I read your post, and agree with everything you say. However, you don't want to get this going. Everyone has their own idea of how big of a deal it is, and will use any argument to support their theory, but the fact is, no one, not even the "experts" can really know. I don't get it, but I think we have become a country of fearful people, very unlike the "American Cowboys" of yesteryear. I am not trying to debate with anyone, so no need for anyone to reply/or rebuff.

 

[godisney14]

I feel like we are all kind of saying the same thing.

We don't know exact figures on how deadly yet the disease itself is, but we know how deadly it can be in situations where hospitals are overwhelmed and unable to give proper medical care.
And slowing the spread is key.

Mortality rate is incorrectly being calculated and reported by many outlets. The only way we get a more accurate mortality rate is looking retrospectively on an event.

Thus, the flaw in simply comparing what’s going on with an ACTIVE infection to an annually occurring known flu. We have data every year to more accurately calculate morbidity and mortality.

Using known confirmed cases of Covid-19, a Case Fatality Ratio is better, even if it excludes unknown cases. And with Covid-19, it’s 8% death rate in Italy, and about 3.5% in the US. This is MUCH more severe and contagious (higher incidence and prevalence rates) virus than the common cold and flu. You could mathematically say that everyone, regardless of other factors, has a 0.7% chance of dying from this virus in the public at this current rate. The more we distance ourselves from each other, the lower that % will be. The more we continue to ignore efforts, the higher that % will be. Guaranteed.

I’ve learned that you can’t change the opinion of 100% population. You just have to get the message out to as many people as you can. To those still unwilling to accept, you just ignore them like a dangerous driver on the road or the coworker who doesn’t wash hands after using the stall.