Why?

[kiddo76]

I understand that and support the short term actions, but I also see people saying we need to do this for months. That is unrealistic.

Right now we are flying blind. From the lack of easy access to testing and the possibly long incubation period, we have NO idea how many cases are actually out there. More data is needed, more hospital beds and supplies are needed, more time is needed before an effective long term plan can be executed.

 

[BuckeyeBama]

Well, we now have confirmed infection cases in 152 countries around the world. Think about that. In less than 4 months it has spread across the entire planet. 4 months. And it is still gaining momentum.

 

[BuckeyeBama]

Something else to consider. It appears that we may be most infectious before we start showing symptoms. Now that is scary. You can't stop this without complete social isolation if this is true.

Article Link

 

[NotUrsula]

Wow. Ok then. Not sure what your age range is, but let's assume that you are 30-40 years old AND that this illness kills that age range in the 14% range (as it currently is with older people). I'm pretty sure you wouldn't be so cavalier. It's astounding that this attitude gets expressed.

Well ... someone does have to think the ugly thoughts. That's what triage is all about; making a measured difficult decision and confronting ugly truths when you do so.

Governments do this kind of math all the time, especially in military matters. The poster has a point, and yes, it's ugly, but it does need to be addressed: if slowing down the pandemic causes major world-wide economic hardship (think the crash of 2008 x10 or so) or, even more seriously, causes nations to fall, was the societal price to save those lives too high? (To be clear here, I'm not talking a minor drop in our standard of living; I'm talking about Great-Depression-style societal upheavals, and things like widespread malnutrition due to crop failures and currency collapse.)

All human lives have value, of course, but preserving every life at any cost is usually not a sustainable practice in times of widespread disaster. It is not realistic to expect a society to always choose to do it, because history has proven that they usually cannot.

 

[jiminyC_fan]

So all those over 60 please raise your hand. Your lives are not considered worthy. Please sacrifice yourself for others. All those under 60 and have a compromised immune system, please do the same. Age doesn't count if you are already sick. All you healthy young people please carry on with your concerts, bars, sports, vacations etc because your lives DO matter. Huh?

 

[Farro]

So all those over 60 please raise your hand. Your lives are not considered worthy. Please sacrifice yourself for others. All those under 60 and have a compromised immune system, please do the same. Age doesn't count if you are already sick. All you healthy young people please carry on with your concerts, bars, sports, vacations etc because your lives DO matter. Huh?

Yes. That's what everyone is saying.(sarcasm)

Someone posed a question, that's how this discussion started - if this disease was killing children would people be more upset.

Would you?

 

[godisney14]

Well ... someone does have to think the ugly thoughts. That's what triage is all about; making a measured difficult decision and confronting ugly truths when you do so.

Governments do this kind of math all the time, especially in military matters. The poster has a point, and yes, it's ugly, but it does need to be addressed: if slowing down the pandemic causes major world-wide economic hardship (think the crash of 2008 x10 or so) or, even more seriously, causes nations to fall, was the societal price to save those lives too high?

All human lives have value, of course, but preserving every life at any cost is usually not a sustainable practice in times of widespread disaster. It is not realistic to expect a society to always choose to do it, because history has proven that they usually cannot.

We have a LOONG way to go before realizing similar level of GDP reduction and monetary and fiscal stimulus as was the case with subprime mortgage crisis. Hopefully, by everyone adhering to the advice of scientists and medical professionals, the economic impact can be minimized before we even come close to the level of economic costs during the subprime mortgage crisis. Another FYI, the mortgage crisis wiped out 50% of market value from prior peak to bottom. We're only 20% down so far.

Do you understand what would happen if we just let the virus replicate in society unabated, across the entire world? Much severe losses economically than what we may have to endure for a few months, half year. And you wouldn't even be able to get a hold of an advice nurse on the phone to get an appt with the doctor.

I will gladly spend time at home with family if it reduces the chance of having a complication from the virus for any of my family or neighbor.

 

[godisney14]

I'm glad the OP created this thread. It shows me that a large crowd of DISboards members have a good understanding of the situation and their responsibility in the larger community. Proud to be part of this Disney fam.

 

[Farro]

Something else to consider. It appears that we may be most infectious before we start showing symptoms. Now that is scary. You can't stop this without complete social isolation if this is true.

Article Link

I understand what you are saying, but I just don't think complete isolation is possible, especially not for an extended period of time.

People just won't do it. Heck, all the young ones were still out going to bars for St. Patrick's Day today.
Perhaps they will close the bars, restaurants for a time. But people will still meet up.

Again, I'm an eternal optimist, but I think our country is finally on the right track at this point. Unlike others, I do think majority of people are taking this seriously. I do believe people think of others before themselves in times of need.

 

[disykat]

I don't know if this has been posted already, but google the washington post graphic about social distancing. It does a good job of showing how we can reduce the impact.

 

[Mrs. Ciz]

I'm glad the OP created this thread. It shows me that a large crowd of DISboards members have a good understanding of the situation and their responsibility in the larger community. Proud to be part of this Disney fam.

My friends and coworkers make fun of me for being an avid reader and participant on Disboards. What they don’t realize is that it is a wealth of shared information from people across the world representing all different backgrounds and viewpoints. And people post SOURCES for the things they say. I can read what everyone says, read the sources they link, ask questions, do some of my own research, and be way better informed about things than most people in my country.

Thank you all so much for being a part of this terrific forum.

 

[lisaviolet]

Wow. Ok then. Not sure what your age range is, but let's assume that you are 30-40 years old AND that this illness kills that age range in the 14% range (as it currently is with older people). I'm pretty sure you wouldn't be so cavalier. It's astounding that this attitude gets expressed.

But you don't even have to assume about death in that age range. I just listened to a Canadian doctor who immediately travelled to Wuhan in January (part of WHO). He was very measured. But he made a point of saying that one of the most troubling aspects was that 30/40/50 year olds died there and they had no prior health concerns. And they have no idea why. No clue why their bodies couldn't fight it. No clue why it ran so virulent in some otherwise healthy younger patients.

I was someone who did think some of the choices being enforced and suggested were overreacting. I have now changed my mind after hearing him speak and reading some statistics earlier coming out of Wuhan. And some of the horrible and troubling choices having to be made in Italian hospitals. I am not stressed or panicked but have certainly gained more awareness and understanding.

And by the way he also noted that people don't realize that there might never be a vaccine. People talk about timing - he himself is optimistic - but many don't realize it is not an absolute. (A Canadian team has already isolated the virus. One of the team members noted that they were very lucky, especially with their speed of success.)

The specialist also noted that closing borders is not shown to be effective. And that he believes 60% of the world's population will be exposed to the virus. It is too late to stop that now. But noted that social isolation is both critical and effective. And that choice has the data to back it up. He has worked on the front line of these epidemics for decades.

 

[lisaviolet]

The true fear is the strain on the hospitals. Nothing more. But it's a huge strain and can be extremely dangerous. That is where the fear is valid.

Even if a small percentage of Covid sufferers need hospitalization it can tax the heath care system to the point where they are having to decide WHO to save. Thats bad.

This.

Those who need hospitalization for it are often fighting sepsis. There is no in for a couple of days for that. It is weeks.

Weeks while others have heart attacks, have complications from diabetes and cancer, suffer from violence and have car accidents. And need beds. All the critical situations that our hospitals face.

And elective surgeries cancelled which could lead to complications down the road for some.

Shortage of equipment and antibiotics that often come from China.

This is why we are being asked to make choices now. So we can try to limit such a debilitating strain on the system.

 

[BuckeyeBama]

But you don't even have to assume about death in that age range. I just listened to a Canadian doctor who immediately travelled to Wuhan in January (part of WHO). He was very measured. But he made a point of saying that one of the most troubling aspects was that 30/40/50 year olds died there and they had no prior health concerns. And they have no idea why. No clue why their bodies couldn't fight it. No clue why it ran so virulent in some otherwise healthy younger patients.

That is a great point. Aside from the very young (age 0-9, who have zero deaths) - every other age group dies at a rate 20 times or more higher than the flu. If you are 10 years old and you get this, there is a .2% change that you will die. With the flu, that is a .01% chance. And the death rates scale up in line with that until you get above age 60, when it get even worse.

So, for children age 0-9, this is a not a death threat. They spread it like crazy, but they do not die. Some will get some lung scarring, and that can change their lives, but at least they won't die.

For everyone else - this thing is DEADLY.

And the worst part - we are not even showing symptoms when we are most infectious. That's right - it is now known that this virus makes us most infectious in the 2-3 days before we start showing symptoms. So the next time you give someone a hug, you could be infecting one another, even though neither of you feels sick and neither of you has been around anyone who appeared to be sick.

It is long past time to stop shaking hands and any other form of physical greeting. Maybe we cannot totally isolate ourselves, but we have to take this seriously or we are going to see people that we love die from this thing.

 

[BuckeyeBama]

I don't know if this has been posted already, but google the washington post graphic about social distancing. It does a good job of showing how we can reduce the impact.

It has some great simulations to demonstrate how different types of social distancing help.

Why outbreaks like coronavirus spread exponentially, and how to “flatten the curve”

 

[Jen81NYC]

So, for children age 0-9, this is a not a death threat. They spread it like crazy, but they do not die. Some will get some lung scarring, and that can change their lives, but at least they won't die.

So we still need more data on this, but this is a chart of South Korea vs Italy diagnoses of coronavirus (South Korea tests everyone and Italy seems to test the sickest), and even with SK testing everyone, I’m struck by the low % of 0-9 kids who have had it. Meaning, I’m not sure it’s a given that elementary school kids are vectors, which I find comforting (having two myself!) Perhaps their immunity due to other coronavirus strains means they literally don’t even get it enough to spread it.

 

[BuckeyeBama]

So we still need more data on this, but this is a chart of South Korea vs Italy diagnoses of coronavirus (South Korea tests everyone and Italy seems to test the sickest), and even with SK testing everyone, I’m struck by the low % of 0-9 kids who have had it. Meaning, I’m not sure it’s a given that elementary school kids are vectors, which I find comforting (having two myself!) Perhaps their immunity due to other coronavirus strains means they literally don’t even get it enough to spread it.

That is one hopeful point - thanks for posting it.

 

[mnrose]

So all those over 60 please raise your hand. Your lives are not considered worthy. Please sacrifice yourself for others. All those under 60 and have a compromised immune system, please do the same. Age doesn't count if you are already sick. All you healthy young people please carry on with your concerts, bars, sports, vacations etc because your lives DO matter. Huh?

Don't forget to add the 45%+ of obese people too. Could they kindly add themselves to the sacrifice pile? And, all smokers and vapers? Let's go. Nice and orderly lines now please!

 

[Jen81NYC]

That is one hopeful point - thanks for posting it.

This is the article it came from, in case helpful.
https://medium.com/@andreasbackhausab/coronavirus-why-its-so-deadly-in-italy-c4200a15a7bf

 

[Searc]

Sadly, these decisions to accept the message are not without severe hits to our economy and to people's mental health, to name just a few. With all the focus on this latest "bogey man" we are ignoring other real problems (again), such as homelessness. The actions being asked of the country are not without consequences.

That is something that is not being considered by some. There are going to be even more people falling through the cracks due to this sudden turn in the economy.