Why is everyone so concerned with the new Poly tower

[DVC Doctor]

I own a lot of DVC points and have no desire to book the "expensive" poly bungalows as I MUCH prefer to book the far superior VGF GV for the same number points, so I agree that for me the Poly is a "studio only resort" and I rarely stay at studios, so the Poly2 is a great announcement for me.

 

[theMoreDisneytheBetter]

I own a lot of DVC points and have no desire to book the "expensive" poly bungalows as I MUCH prefer to book the far superior VGF GV for the same number points, so I agree that for me the Poly is a "studio only resort" and I rarely stay at studios, so the Poly2 is a great announcement for me.

My mom has no interest in the VGF GV. She thinks she would feel uncomfortable with the decor. We hope to try VGF in a 2BD if we can’t get into the cabins in January (bought in direct when the points were first released), and we will see how we feel there. Otherwise we will use them for SAP or for times when we need to sleep 10 and can’t get into a 3BD somewhere else.

The only time I have ever seen DS happier than in the Bungalows was on safari in Africa.

 

[DVC Doctor]

My mom has no interest in the VGF GV. She thinks she would feel uncomfortable with the decor. We hope to try VGF in a 2BD if we can’t get into the cabins in January (bought in direct when the points were first released), and we will see how we feel there. Otherwise we will use them for SAP or for times when we need to sleep 10 and can’t get into a 3BD somewhere else.

The only time I have ever seen DS happier than in the Bungalows was on safari in Africa.

And this is what makes DVC so special - unlike most timeshares, it really does offer many booking options for different members

 

[DarthDadMan]

Except if we hit a recession and you have Disney trying to sell shiny new Poly it can drive resales down further.

Additonally if the gap is close enough people who love Poly may opt for direct for a variety of reasons depending on if it's a new resort or part of the existing.

There is a large chance that Poly slips in years 2-5 before rebounding.The bottom

Sure, but they'll have the drive the entire resale market down. I love SSR, OKW, and AKV but they represent the bottom of the resale market. This weekend alone, I've seen Poly contracts be almost immediately sold in the 150s. How much further down do you expect it to be driven down if the bottom of the 2054+ resorts are selling at 140+? Recession or not, people will buy Poly tower at whatever Disney lists it at given its prime real estate location.

 

[Paul Stupin]

Sure, but they'll have the drive the entire resale market down. I love SSR, OKW, and AKV but they represent the bottom of the resale market. This weekend alone, I've seen Poly contracts be almost immediately sold in the 150s. How much further down do you expect it to be driven down if the bottom of the 2054+ resorts are selling at 140+? Recession or not, people will buy Poly tower at whatever Disney lists it at given its prime real estate location.

I think if Poly2 is in a separate association, and goes on sale with substantial incentives that are competitive with Poly1 resale, just like VGF2, you’ll see Poly1 resale go down another 15-20 points. That’s why I wouldn’t buy Poly1 now.

For me, it seems logical that Poly2 will be perceived as a more desirable resort to own, and if the incentives are strong enough, they’ll be more interested in buying Poly2 direct regardless of resale restrictions than Poly1. Less buyers for Poly1 will mean a lower price.

Some buyers for Poly1 now are saying that they’re fine with staying in Poly1 studios and don’t care if Poly2 is in the same association or not. But they don’t seem to acknowledge the possibility that their contracts’ value might slide downward. Of course none of us really know anything, and we won’t for two years, but it doesn’t seem impossible that Poly2 will negatively impact the resale price of Poly1 substantially.

 

[KimMcGowan]

What makes me laugh in all of this is the influence personal opinion plays in these discussions. There is at least one person that hates the Poly and it comes across in almost every post. Then you have people (like me) that love the Poly and are not willing to see that some of the arguments for this being a new association make a LOT of sense, and that comes across in our posts too.
I think Disney has recently proven they will. ONLY do what is best for Disney.

 

[theMoreDisneytheBetter]

I think if Poly2 is in a separate association, and goes on sale with substantial incentives that are competitive with Poly1 resale, just like VGF2, you’ll see Poly1 resale go down another 15-20 points. That’s why I wouldn’t buy Poly1 now.

For me, it seems logical that Poly2 will be perceived as a more desirable resort to own, and if the incentives are strong enough, they’ll be more interested in buying Poly2 direct regardless of resale restrictions than Poly1. Less buyers for Poly1 will mean a lower price.

Some buyers for Poly1 now are saying that they’re fine with staying in Poly1 studios and don’t care if Poly2 is in the same association or not. But they don’t seem to acknowledge the possibility that their contracts’ value might slide downward. Of course none of us really know anything, and we won’t for two years, but it doesn’t seem impossible that Poly2 will negatively impact the resale price of Poly1 substantially.

If you think that the "hit" to Poly 1 would only be $15-20 AND you don't care about staying at Poly 2 wouldn't that argue for buying a fully loaded Poly 1 contract now? You could get 2-3 years worth of point use between now and then, valued at roughly $20pt - MF (around $8/year). So conservatively that might be worth $24-36, plus the "value" of being in charge of your own reservations. We can argue about time value of money but I also think about time value of vacations.

This isn't applicable to us but I can absolutely see how it could work for a different family.

 

[DarthDadMan]

I think if Poly2 is in a separate association, and goes on sale with substantial incentives that are competitive with Poly1 resale, just like VGF2, you’ll see Poly1 resale go down another 15-20 points. That’s why I wouldn’t buy Poly1 now.

For me, it seems logical that Poly2 will be perceived as a more desirable resort to own, and if the incentives are strong enough, they’ll be more interested in buying Poly2 direct regardless of resale restrictions than Poly1. Less buyers for Poly1 will mean a lower price.

Some buyers for Poly1 now are saying that they’re fine with staying in Poly1 studios and don’t care if Poly2 is in the same association or not. But they don’t seem to acknowledge the possibility that their contracts’ value might slide downward. Of course none of us really know anything, and we won’t for two years, but it doesn’t seem impossible that Poly2 will negatively impact the resale price of Poly1 substantially.

Yeah, I mean, it’s all speculation at this point. We can all create a scenario that makes sense with any combination reasoning. I have a hard time seeing the resale values of any resort, let alone Poly1, drop. Poly has dropped quite a bit already since the news of the tower coming. Economically speaking, it was the best buy before the drop in value. If it continues this path, I’d have to think real hard about swapping contracts. We’ll see how it goes. For everyone’s sake, I hope Disney announces the details sooner rather than later, so we can end the speculation lol and start the discussion on the amount of points we’re all buying

 

[theMoreDisneytheBetter]

Yeah, I mean, it’s all speculation at this point. We can all create a scenario that makes sense with any combination reasoning. I have a hard time seeing the resale values of any resort, let alone Poly1, drop. Poly has dropped quite a bit already since the news of the tower coming. Economically speaking, it was the best buy before the drop in value. If it continues this path, I’d have to think real hard about swapping contracts. We’ll see how it goes. For everyone’s sake, I hope Disney announces the details sooner rather than later, so we can end the speculation lol and start the discussion on the amount of points we’re all buying

Pretty sure DS will be asking Santa for Poly 2 incentive luggage for Christmas 2024!

 

[DVCsloth]

Don't see myself buying because we already own 2 MK resorts. I think this will be an awesome resort though.

 

[Paul Stupin]

What makes me laugh in all of this is the influence personal opinion plays in these discussions. There is at least one person that hates the Poly and it comes across in almost every post. Then you have people (like me) that love the Poly and are not willing to see that some of the arguments for this being a new association make a LOT of sense, and that comes across in our posts too.
I think Disney has recently proven they will. ONLY do what is best for Disney.

All good points! And good natured too. Here’s one thing I hope we can agree on…having new construction on the monorail route, regardless of associations and resale restrictions and what not, will be a good thing! I think it’ll even be fun to watch the building take shape, if the noise isn’t too much of an inconvenience.

 

[Sandisw]

If you think that the "hit" to Poly 1 would only be $15-20 AND you don't care about staying at Poly 2 wouldn't that argue for buying a fully loaded Poly 1 contract now? You could get 2-3 years worth of point use between now and then, valued at roughly $20pt - MF (around $8/year). So conservatively that might be worth $24-36, plus the "value" of being in charge of your own reservations. We can argue about time value of money but I also think about time value of vacations.

This isn't applicable to us but I can absolutely see how it could work for a different family.

I think it really does come down to whether or not you care to be locked out of the new tower.

IMO, assume one will be and go from there. If it really won’t matter, than buying Poly now makes sense.

If one thinks they will be disappointed, then it’s best to wait until we get more news.

 

[AnnaKristoff2013]

Holy smokes. Impressive for VGF2 out of the gate. I think if that holds for say the next 6 months or so, with it beating RIV handedly, you'll have your answer on poly2. At the pace its on, it could sellout in less than a year...? Crazy.

Will Disney control for the fact that VGF is located at their flagship resort, on the monorail loop, walkable to MK while Riviera is located at a moderate resort? That, more than resale restrictions, may be what’s driving sales to Gf instead of riviera.

 

[AnnaKristoff2013]

Just adding a data point when it comes to what mix of active resort sales (restrictions or not) DVC wants to offer in a few years: There are 3,825,342 RIV pts left to sell. If Riviera maintains it's April '22 pace (93,218 pts), it'll sell out in October of 2025. If it glides closer to it's lifetime monthly average (78,190 pts), it'll sell out in June of 2026. Unless Poly Tower's late 2024 opening date is delayed, it would seem that overlap with active RIV sales for at least a year is inevitable.

It seems likely sales will slow down once we get closer to Poly opening. The poly tower just seems a lot more attractive to me for most purchasers than the Riviera.

 

[DebbieB]

Will Disney control for the fact that VGF is located at their flagship resort, on the monorail loop, walkable to MK while Riviera is located at a moderate resort? That, more than resale restrictions, may be what’s driving sales to Gf instead of riviera.

I stayed at Riviera for the first time last month and never thought that it was located at a moderate resort. It’s separate. I loved that it was on the Skyliner to 2 parks.

I would consider buying some Riviera points but my hang up is that it will lose at least 25% value as soon as the ink is dry. At age 62, I’m obviously not going to outlive it, so it’s a factor.

 

[Sandisw]

Will Disney control for the fact that VGF is located at their flagship resort, on the monorail loop, walkable to MK while Riviera is located at a moderate resort? That, more than resale restrictions, may be what’s driving sales to Gf instead of riviera.

The thing right now is that there was heavy buying for VGF during March for current owners..62K in just one day.

Some of the high numbers were from owners adding on then as April numbers included half of March..sales tend to late a little behind

So, we really won’t see a true picture until we have May numbers when they represent all buyers equally.

I have shared before, only 43k of that 177k is new buyers so not the best..even assuming it is only half month, it’d still only be 86k for a full month. While we don’t know the break down with RIV, I have to imagine that a good bulk of that 93k was new buyers..meaning the difference between the two may not be as large as one thinks.

I think DVD will look for any data to keep restrictions. So as long as RIV and VGF stay close..and next few months will bare that out if it is going to happen ,,,they will stay as they are.

I also think they may use this data to realize that they can not only keep restrictions and a new association but also sell Poly tower with an end date the same as PVB with less than 50 years as people did still buy VGF with a shorter expiration.

 

[SeasonneRose]

The thing right now is that there was heavy buying for VGF during March for current owners..62K in just one day.

Some of the high numbers were from owners adding on then as April numbers included half of March..sales tend to late a little behind

So, we really won’t see a true picture until we have May numbers when they represent all buyers equally.

I have shared before, only 43k of that 177k is new buyers so not the best..even assuming it is only half month, it’d still only be 86k for a full month. While we don’t know the break down with RIV, I have to imagine that a good bulk of that 93k was new buyers..meaning the difference between the two may not be as large as one thinks.

I think DVD will look for any data to keep restrictions. So as long as RIV and VGF stay close..and next few months will bare that out if it is going to happen ,,,they will stay as they are.

I also think they may use this data to realize that they can not only keep restrictions and a new association but also sell Poly tower with an end date the same as PVB with less than 50 years as people did still buy VGF with a shorter expiration.

Why does it matter if they're new or existing buyers? The points are points regardless of who has them.

 

[RKS03]

Why does it matter if they're new or existing buyers? The points are points regardless of who has them.

I think the thought is that existing buyer activity is less likely to carry over in the future. It’s interesting how much better the deal
Is for existing VGF buyers. I’m not sure if the difference is as much for Riviera.

 

[DianaMB333]

Would you pls remind me what is the possible timeline to get the confirmation on whether it is new or current association, and possible timeline for sales?
Thanks!

 

[DVC Doctor]

Imagine all the hell that will break loose if Poly2 restricts their pool to only Poly2 owners and tell the Poly1 owners..."no pool for you"