Why is everyone so concerned with the new Poly tower

[Sandisw]

I also wonder how the studios at VGF2 not being a traditional studio with a kitchenette play into all of this as well. Maybe I'm in the minority, but when we do stay in a studio we like having a microwave and toaster so we can do a quick breakfast in the room. For us, the higher points and lack of kitchenette were a deterrent...

Am I the only one thinking that them not announcing what POLY2 will be (new association vs. part of old) is the biggest clue? If they had announced that it would be part of the current poly association then wouldn't everyone just start buying resale now?

It'll be interesting to see how this all plays out for sure!

It is for me. They came right out with VGF and said it was being done as a new phase of VGF. They purposely did not and since then, have given no hints or further info.

 

[bbeagle]

Am I the only one thinking that them not announcing what POLY2 will be (new association vs. part of old) is the biggest clue? If they had announced that it would be part of the current poly association then wouldn't everyone just start buying resale now?

Exactly.

If Disney planned POLY2 to be part of the original Poly, then resales of Poly would be selling like hotcakes right now. That doesn't help Disney. Right now, I think resales of Poly are down because nobody wants to buy Poly re-sale, then be stuck with not being able to get into the Poly tower with their points.

If Disney announced POLY2 is a new resort, but POLY DIRECT can also have an 11-month booking window at POLY2, Disney could snatch up lots of cheap Poly re-sales and re-sell them direct and make tons of money. Not sure if that would be legally possible, but it would be a big cash-cow for Disney.

If Disney is planning on keeping POLY2 as the same resort, once it's announced, I think Disney would be buying up all the Poly resales they can get. We'll see if this happens at some point, as it will show Disney's hand.

 

[hglenn]

Am I the only one thinking that them not announcing what POLY2 will be (new association vs. part of old) is the biggest clue? If they had announced that it would be part of the current poly association then wouldn't everyone just start buying resale now?

Could you imagine the resale price for Poly1 if they had announced that Poly2 would be same association?

 

[Sandisw]

Exactly.

If Disney planned POLY2 to be part of the original Poly, then resales of Poly would be selling like hotcakes right now. That doesn't help Disney. Right now, I think resales of Poly are down because nobody wants to buy Poly re-sale, then be stuck with not being able to get into the Poly tower with their points.

If Disney announced POLY2 is a new resort, but POLY DIRECT can also have an 11-month booking window at POLY2, Disney could snatch up lots of cheap Poly re-sales and re-sell them direct and make tons of money. Not sure if that would be legally possible, but it would be a big cash-cow for Disney.

If Disney is planning on keeping POLY2 as the same resort, once it's announced, I think Disney would be buying up all the Poly resales they can get. We'll see if this happens at some point, as it will show Disney's hand.

If it is a new association, they can’t give PVB the same booking as Poly tower owners…those must be guaranteed at least a one month advantage….

And, just like with VGF, which is selling points deeded to the new building snd not the current one..I imagine the same will happen for Poly tower, regardless of association.

I just can’t think of any scenario where they can enter the new Poly tower as a new association into BVTC for trades that would allow PVB to have a different trade than other direct owned or grandfathered points.

 

[Huskerpaul]

I fully convinced they will add the tower to the current PVB association and therefore there won't be resale restrictions. 42 years contracts vs 50 years will look too good to the Disney bean counters when calculating their ROI on this project. It also takes care of what facilities belong to which and allows an excuse for less than full amenities at the new tower. If my wife liked staying there I would buy a resale contract when they get to the $145 - $150 range, which is where PVB seems to be headed.

 

[CarolynFH]

42 years contracts vs 50 years will look too good to the Disney bean counters when calculating their ROI on this project.

Just remember that there's no requirement for a new condominium association to have a 50 year lifespan. DVD could easily create Poly 2 and have it sunset on the same date that Poly 1 does, and there are some here who believe that might be the plan.

 

[jppeek]

People are so passionate about this subject lol

Tech, I came from the world of Caribbean Beach being my special treat, drooling over poly every time I went to Ohana and half the time not even being able to do a Disney Resort! So Poly1 Studios are still amazing for me no matter what happens! I also have been able to get a 1 bedroom with no problem so far at GFV, BCV, and BW at the 7 month mark so you should have options even if you do need a bigger room (as long as your dates are a little flexible).

As far as cost, like you said it really is like the stock market. I have spent a lot of time watching resale values lately and its hard to predict. GFV average resale went down a bunch in March once direct started, but is now trending back up a bit.

personally I think that poly2 will be part of poly1 which I'm guessing will bring down resale at least short term (depending on incentives). If the Poly2 is separate, and comes with a 50 year contract I have to think the price will be much higher than what we have seen and if its high enough It may price people out and there would still be demand for poly1.

In the end if you love POLY, and you found a contract that fits what you and your family are looking for I don't think you can go wrong. You will be multiple trips and memories in before the other one will even be open and if you happened to get a contract that has left over points, those points have a value as well, so even if it dropped a bit those points may keep you ahead!

 

[sethschroeder]

still is a great mathematical case for VGF as SAP direct points

Just like RIV has had a good math option for SAP for direct points previously (not as much now).

I bought in at $155/point at Riviera so I came out fairly good even if I want to stay elsewhere. I have only ever stayed at BW and RIV my entire time going to Disney (except when I was a tiny kid) and this summer we will try VGF simply because we are not sure we will ever get a 2BR again at VGF with the new studio heavy tower.

 

[sethschroeder]

So Poly1 Studios are still amazing for me no matter what happens

The point is if you are laying down $10k/$20k/$30k how is that money best used to elevate your vacation experience? That is why there is discussions on this.

People can do what ever they want. The nice thing is the people who simply go with the flow likely will come out okay even if they want to switch from POLY1 to POLY2 if they happen to be different resorts.

 

[ParkHoppers]

For Tower availability sake wouldn’t it be better if the two associations stayed separate?

 

[CarolMN]

For Tower availability sake wouldn’t it be better if the two associations stayed separate?

Many who post here think so. I think it's going to depend on the point charts,nd which will almost certainly be quite high. Looks like there will be a lot of villas with "premium" views, and there are a lot of DVC members who prefer to stretch their points. Those members tend to compete for the less expensive options rather than the higher cost views.

It's an Interesting discussion, but it's based on guesses and assumptions, not official information.

 

[Marionnette]

For Tower availability sake wouldn’t it be better if the two associations stayed separate?

That wasn't a consideration when they added VGF2 to the original VGF.

 

[Sandisw]

That wasn't a consideration when they added VGF2 to the original VGF.

Except BPK is all resort studios..a completely different type of room.

Not sure it would be selling like it is had it been it a new resort. We only bought because it was the same association.

Poly tower will have all rooms sizes so I think makes a big difference in deciding what they should do.

 

[Marionnette]

Except BPK is all resort studios..a completely different type of room.

Not sure it would be selling like it is had it been it a new resort. We only bought because it was the same association.

Poly tower will have all rooms sizes so I think makes a big difference in deciding what they should do.

Well, isn't that my point? People are buying BPK because of VGF1. They like the idea of being able to book anything from a resort studio to a GV. But no one took into consideration the impact that this will have on availability at VGF1, with only 6 GVs, 47 lock-off 2BRs and 47 dedicated 2BRs.

So why would DVC care about the impact that PVB would have on Poly2? The answer is: they won't. There are other reasons why Poly2 will be its own association (which I regrettably believe it will), but availability due to some PVB owners booking there is not going to be part of that decision making process.

 

[RKS03]

The difference is it would potentially impair the product they are currently selling. They were selling VGF2, not VGF1. However, in the fitire they will be selling PVB2, and if buyers viewed it as watered down due to PVB1 it would impact sales. I don’t think many VGF2 were out off by being included in same association as VGf1.

 

[Sandisw]

Well, isn't that my point? People are buying BPK because of VGF1. They like the idea of being able to book anything from a resort studio to a GV. But no one took into consideration the impact that this will have on availability at VGF1, with only 6 GVs, 47 lock-off 2BRs and 47 dedicated 2BRs.

So why would DVC care about the impact that PVB would have on Poly2? The answer is: they won't. There are other reasons why Poly2 will be its own association (which I regrettably believe it will), but availability due to some PVB owners booking there is not going to be part of that decision making process.

I thought you were talking strictly in relation to sales. I completely agree that DVD only cares about sales.

Including BPK into VGF allowed them to push the entire resort..
which they do…and won’t need the current PBB studios to do that…unless they decide not to add studios to the tower.

That doesn’t seem likely…and why I do think it will be new because they don’t need the 300 plus studios to sell Poly tower…they needed VGF to sell BPK.

 

[Sandisw]

The difference is it would potentially impair the product they are currently selling. They were selling VGF2, not VGF1. However, in the fitire they will be selling PVB2, and if buyers viewed it as watered down due to PVB1 it would impact sales. I don’t think many VGF2 were out off by being included in same association as VGf1.

And they are selling VGF, the entire resort and push that, not just the resort studios.

Being deeded to BPK is semantically and why I agree that if they think adding it into PVB causes people to give pause, then it just gives them another reason.

In the end, I think the decision will be based on getting back to the long term goal of new resorts with restrictions and as long as they can find reasons to stay the course, it will be what happens.

 

[Marionnette]

The difference is it would potentially impair the product they are currently selling. They were selling VGF2, not VGF1. However, in the fitire they will be selling PVB2, and if buyers viewed it as watered down due to PVB1 it would impact sales. I don’t think many VGF2 were out off by being included in same association as VGf1.

@Sandisw understood my point. It wasn't about sales. It was about availability should those PVB owners with their "zillions of points" start booking at Poly2 tower if they are one association. The answer is that DVC doesn't care. They didn't care when they built the THVs at SSR, the PVB bungalows, the CCV cabins or when they added 200 resort studios to VGF1. They only care about selling points and if they thought that making Poly2 a part of the existing association would sell more points, they would do it.

 

[RKS03]

@Sandisw understood my point. It wasn't about sales. It was about availability should those PVB owners with their "zillions of points" start booking at Poly2 tower if they are one association. The answer is that DVC doesn't care. They didn't care when they built the THVs at SSR, the PVB bungalows, the CCV cabins or when they added 200 resort studios to VGF1. They only care about selling points and if they thought that making Poly2 a part of the existing association would sell more points, they would do it.

Agreed with your point that functionally the two would be similar but they’ll be driven by sales decisions not what’s best for everyone in the system.

Personally I don’t love the restrictions even if I’m not directly impacted by them because it means that many will be stuck with their own resorts and it will be harder for me to try out the other resorts.

 

[SLThomas318]

I agree they are not going to consider booking availability in their decision if this is new or not... it will be what they think sells or what fits whatever direction they are going at that time (resale restrictions vs not).

I know when we did our first DVC tour we got the impression that you had access to all of these resorts.... you could change up resorts at 7 months... you had so much flexibility. It wasn't till we did some research and really even after we bought (100pts at CC thinking we'd just book studios lol!) that we realized that isn't the case. So unless you are a seasoned DVC owner looking to add on, then I don't think many people are thinking about booking availability... a new buyer isn't going to realize the "potential" impact of the zillion poly1 owners being able to book at poly2.

I do see where it could be confusing... would new buyers want access to the bungalows? No, sorry you have to wait to book those. And as I said earlier in the thread... I imagine the studios in the tower will have the same availability issues that all the other resorts have. People tend to buy in with just enough points to book the lowest point studios...