Why is everyone so concerned with the new Poly tower

[Sandisw]

You have this backward - Why Rofr it if it is the same association since you will be creating millions on new points? They don't ROFR resorts being sold for the same reason.

I think I see what you are saying but new association or not, it’s way too early.

They probably didn’t need to use ROFR will VGF after the announcement as prices were extremely close already in the market to what the direct price would be.

But, they were using it which is what drove the price up as high as it was before sales began again.

The thing is Poly has never been an ROFR resort.. as it sells lower..so I just don’t see it as an indicator..especially this early.

Using ROFR effectively for it being the same association, could drive resale price up now so that then it’s time to sell, it acts like VGF where direct makes sense

On the other hand, they will still have millions of points to sell regardless so maybe there is no need to take any PVB points no matter which way it goes.

ETA. Here is another thing to consider regarding no ROFR during active sales.

Normally, there are no points out on the market at the start.

So, while they are active selling, the volume of contracts that hit the market are pretty small, which is a reason not to ROFR

With PVB, there are already 4 million sold points out there so that alone could play a role in the decision as to what to do if it’s the same association.

Now that I think about it, I lean more that ROFR wont be an indicator at all in this case due to how many PVB point already exist

Even VGF had half that floating around before sales started up again.

 

[lovethesun12]

Maybe both perspectives are true and underscore that available points in the resale market are a drop in the bucket compared to the overall points for a resort.

All of the reasons and factors for why DVC takes certain contracts through the ROFR process remain a mystery. I don't know that we can make any assumptions, one way or another, between ROFR at Poly1 and whether Poly Tower will be a new association or rolled into the current association.

True. I also don't think anything has really changed as far as ROFR goes with poly. Poly was never a threat for ROFR, other than a very brief period (maybe 1-2 months?) a couple years ago when the poly prices dropped to the $130s and we discovered there was actually a floor.

If a contract is sent through in that range again we may get to see if there actually is still a floor in place.

 

[DVCsloth]

In short, people would buy poly2 direct for all the same reasons people decided to buy VGF2 direct.

There just aren't that many contracts on the resale market, some people trust disney more than resale, some people won't even know about resale, potential narrow gap in pricing between resale/direct might make people feel direct is a better option, impulse buying, FOMO.

Pretty sure the Studios and 2br at VGF were the most difficult to book. Disney was able to convert hotel rooms at BPK and sell studios and access to larger rooms. This is IMO a major selling point for VGF2. I really doubt there would be as much interest in VGF 2 hotel room only without including the original villas building. Polynesian will be brand new from the ground up with all different room types, really doubt Disney will have any issues selling this and just can't see any advantage to them to include it in the same association. There is no way I would buy into this resort and compete with 6 million points already out there that would have access at 11 months just like brand new purchases.

 

[lovethesun12]

Pretty sure the Studios and 2br at VGF were the most difficult to book. Disney was able to convert hotel rooms at BPK and sell studios and access to larger rooms. This is IMO a major selling point for VGF2. I really doubt there would be as much interest in VGF 2 hotel room only without including the original villas building. Polynesian will be brand new from the ground up with all different room types, really doubt Disney will have any issues selling this and just can't see any advantage to them to include it in the same association. There is no way I would buy into this resort and compete with 6 million points already out there that would have access at 11 months just like brand new purchases.

I was commenting on the point you made - why buy direct when you can just buy resale.

For all the points you made about VGF2, all those buyers still could have just bought resale instead.

 

[DVCsloth]

I was commenting on the point you made - why buy direct when you can just buy resale.

For all the points you made about VGF2, all those buyers still could have just bought resale instead.

I understand people buying VGF2 direct, access to both buildings and no restrictions. Polynesian is all studios, except for the cabins, this would be great for current poly owners direct and resale. Not an ideal situation for someone buying into the new tower now competing with all of the current poly points.

 

[Jlo85]

The thing is Poly has never been an ROFR resort.. as it sells lower..so I just don’t see it as an indicator..especially this early.

Direct sales at Poly are in-line with other resorts. And Poly is much more expensive direct ($250) than most of those other resorts at $200. It's possible that Disney has a lot of Poly points already, but why? Why would it be unique?

Poly hasn't had much ROFR in the past, but neither did CCV. And now CCV is getting ROFR'd. Literally, every other resort not in active sale has had some ROFR activity over the past year, including Hilton Head and Vero Beach. Poly really is the outlier.

And again my perspective is that the whole purpose of restrictions is to make ROFR cheaper for Disney. If Disney isn't ROFR'ing while Poly is cheap today, then really it questions why they need restrictions at all.

 

[BeachClub2014]

Direct sales at Poly are in-line with other resorts. And Poly is much more expensive direct ($250) than most of those other resorts at $200. It's possible that Disney has a lot of Poly points already, but why? Why would it be unique?

Poly hasn't had much ROFR in the past, but neither did CCV. And now CCV is getting ROFR'd. Literally, every other resort not in active sale has had some ROFR activity over the past year, including Hilton Head and Vero Beach. Poly really is the outlier.

And again my perspective is that the whole purpose of restrictions is to make ROFR cheaper for Disney. If Disney isn't ROFR'ing while Poly is cheap today, then really it questions why they need restrictions at all.

I'm thinking the whole purpose of creating restrictions was to create a very tangible incentive for buyers to purchase unrestricted points directly from DVC.

 

[Jlo85]

I'm thinking the whole purpose of creating restrictions was to create a very tangible incentive for buyers to purchase unrestricted points directly from DVC.

It’s possible, though I’m really skeptical that it boosts direct sales. And now guides have to talk about resale, which could cause other issues.

I think cheaper ROFR is a more clear benefit of resale restrictions. Like, if/when Riviera sells-out, they’ll probably get a nice $20-30/point discount on ROFR due to the restrictions, would be my guess.

 

[pianomanzano]

Direct sales at Poly are in-line with other resorts. And Poly is much more expensive direct ($250) than most of those other resorts at $200. It's possible that Disney has a lot of Poly points already, but why? Why would it be unique?

Foreclosures maybe? I think you pointed that out on the other Poly thread and I noticed those deeds being transferred back to DVD. Enough to affect their decision not to ROFR? Maybe?

And again my perspective is that the whole purpose of restrictions is to make ROFR cheaper for Disney. If Disney isn't ROFR'ing while Poly is cheap today, then really it questions why they need restrictions at all.

I’d argue that the purpose of the restrictions is to make resale a lesser product. The restrictions, especially for the O14 resorts, isn’t making contracts any cheaper.

They could be happy with the current spread between direct/resale for Poly. It would be interesting to see what they would do about offers in the 140s, which they were ROFRing last year.

 

[Ruttangel]

DVC direct sales at as PVB are pretty much the same as AKV over last few months.
The difference in ROFR is stark though with AKV heavily ROFR’d. So, as has been speculated PVB points must be coming back into the pot via people defaulting on dues or loans, Maybe as AKV has been over 10 years since it went on sale very few of those happen at that site now.
Why is PVB different to other recent resorts that should have same volume of defaults? Who knows, maybe a lot of high point defaults have happened there, would love to know in’s and outs of ROFR,
Does anybody in our well connected forum know anyone who worked on ROFR for DVD?

 

[BeachClub2014]

would love to know in’s and outs of ROFR,

Me too!

 

[Sandisw]

Direct sales at Poly are in-line with other resorts. And Poly is much more expensive direct ($250) than most of those other resorts at $200. It's possible that Disney has a lot of Poly points already, but why? Why would it be unique?

Poly hasn't had much ROFR in the past, but neither did CCV. And now CCV is getting ROFR'd. Literally, every other resort not in active sale has had some ROFR activity over the past year, including Hilton Head and Vero Beach. Poly really is the outlier.

And again my perspective is that the whole purpose of restrictions is to make ROFR cheaper for Disney. If Disney isn't ROFR'ing while Poly is cheap today, then really it questions why they need restrictions at all.

CCV was just in active sales though not too long ago. Poly has been out for quite awhile and they still have never wanted to buy back Poly...maybe because, as mentioned, its ROFR price hasn't been worth it and the $130 price was a floor they wanted to keep.

I don't think they have a lot of points on hand, because it was declared sold out, and we know from deeds recorded how many points are out there...without ROFR, that means they haven't taken very many points back...it would leave foreclosures bought back as the only source to build back up its supply.

The fact that Poly is $250 direct and they are still letting it pass as low as they are would seem to indicate they don't care about how big the spread is or don't care if they sell points direct at that resort. Also, points they own at the resorts are used for OTU points, or to offer rooms for cash...maybe there isn't the level of demand for cash reservations at PVB since Poly Village Resort has so many rooms.

I definitely agree that restrictions could eventually push resorts cheaper, but DVD cares about selling new points and not picking up resale points. The past few years of ROFR activity has been higher than it had been in years past, and that of course, has helped to raise the value of several resorts.

Restrictions really appear to be more about marketing and being able to say "You can only stay here and future resorts when you buy from us direct.". If that depresses the resale market and allows them to pick up cheaper points, it may be more of an unintended consequence than the motivating fact behind them, since, that is just the latest move to make the two products different.

But, if your premise is the reason for restrictions, then wouldn't it make more sense to add them to Poly tower so that they continue to drive down the market?

The one definite in all of it is that everyone should be 100% confident that no matter what any of us think, or can imagine, DVD will and has done things no one ever thought they would.

 

[Sandisw]

I was commenting on the point you made - why buy direct when you can just buy resale.

For all the points you made about VGF2, all those buyers still could have just bought resale instead.

Except, right now, resale still leaves you out of RIV and future resorts...if the market sees that they are doing things that make that "future resorts" statement much less likely because they are expanding current DVC and not adding new ones, people will take there chances that it won't happen.

So, IMO, they are at the point that they will need to decide if that is part of the strategy or not...either stick with it or get rid of them...it won't help with direct sales...which is their main goal...to say, this one does, and this one doesn't, but the next one might....

ETA: And we know that people have gone direct because of the current differences in resale...I certainly did and will continue if its in play...if its not, then there is no reason any longer not to buy resale...years ago, when the price of direct was $100, and resale was in the $80's with the same product, that difference was manageable...now, with direct hovering around $200, and resales in the $130's to $140's average for WDW resorts, there has to be something tangible for DVD to hang their hat on to get people to spend that difference....

 

[Sandisw]

DVC direct sales at as PVB are pretty much the same as AKV over last few months.
The difference in ROFR is stark though with AKV heavily ROFR’d. So, as has been speculated PVB points must be coming back into the pot via people defaulting on dues or loans, Maybe as AKV has been over 10 years since it went on sale very few of those happen at that site now.
Why is PVB different to other recent resorts that should have same volume of defaults? Who knows, maybe a lot of high point defaults have happened there, would love to know in’s and outs of ROFR,
Does anybody in our well connected forum know anyone who worked on ROFR for DVD?

No, and I can tell you that many of those that work for Disney, have a loyalty to the company, well after they have left...I have shared many times that my DD did marketing internship with WDPR, before working in NYC with DTG, and was part of the team dealing with those infamous pin codes at the time...even after she left and to this day, she still won't spill the beans...and she won't share things that went on and what she knew from her time at DTG.

All I know, and have been told over the years, is that ROFR is meant to be unpredictable, and that the reasons behind it all are multifaceted because goals, and needs change over time. The only two things in the process that seem to be 99% sure is that they do not take active selling resorts and that they do not buy from the international buyer.

Other than that, every other theory has gotten crushed when DVD started doing something else!! LOL

 

[BeachClub2014]

Just one data point, but.....

PVB currently has 118 resale contracts across 13 different brokers representing an aggregate total of about 20,000 points. 20,000 out of four million points doesn't seem like it would require much attention from DVC at all. Even if these numbers are off by half, it still only gets us to 1% of the whole.

Does that really matter to DVC in making the decision on whether Poly Towers will be placed in the current association or launched as a new association? I dunno, but suspect not.

 

[Paul Stupin]

So, as a VGF1 owner, this exact thing has led me to question DVC more than anything over the past 15 years. Essentially, with VGF2, they are saying they can come back to any association, many years down the road, and alter it. I suppose the treehouses should have been my first indication of this, but I think this has affected the original owners more. As you say about the sales pitch selling the original building, essentially DVC is selling something that is already sold out, IMHO to the detriment of the original owners.

I keep coming back to this. What’s to say that 6-7 years from now, they decide to convert the Aruba area of CBR as a quick flip and sell them as “Riviera Resort Studios”?

As a VGF owner as well, I totally agree with you. Even more annoying for me, I bought some direct points before the announcement, which certainly wasn't the best timed decision, and for a while I felt as if I were misled by Disney. But ultimately I got over it, am sure my guide didn’t know, and was glad to get more lower priced direct points to book at Riviera and probably VDH, if it too has the restrictions. (I bought quite a few VGF2 points, which brought my average cost down to a more manageable level.)

In spite of all this, we still really like VGF, and love the ability to walk to MK.

 

[DVCsloth]

As a VGF owner as well, I totally agree with you. Even more annoying for me, I bought some direct points before the announcement, which certainly wasn't the best timed decision, and for a while I felt as if I were misled by Disney. But ultimately I got over it, am sure my guide didn’t know, and was glad to get more lower priced direct points to book at Riviera and probably VDH, if it too has the restrictions. (I bought quite a few VGF2 points, which brought my average cost down to a more manageable level.)

In spite of all this, we still really like VGF, and love the ability to walk to MK.

We also own VGF since 2014, we were considering adding on when they announced VGF2 but the more we looked thought about it we didn't really like the studio only addition. We ended up buying Riviera instead. We just got back from staying in the villas and really enjoyed the walking path. One time we were on the monorail, and they had shut it down for some reason and recommended we choose a different way, so we walked, and thought it was really nice. The family even went to MK for one of the deluxe resort nights from 11 till 1a.m. "too late for me" They had a blast with an almost empty park. 5-minute ride to MK on the monorail and maybe 10 or 15 minutes to get back.

 

[lovethesun12]

I understand people buying VGF2 direct, access to both buildings and no restrictions. Polynesian is all studios, except for the cabins, this would be great for current poly owners direct and resale. Not an ideal situation for someone buying into the new tower now competing with all of the current poly points.

I guess we disagree here because after staying at the smaller rooms at VGF2, seeing the points required, and looking at the layout of the RIV rooms, I think there's a good chance the original poly studios are better. The reason same association would be great for me is that I could buy more poly points, and they would be direct.

It will be interesting to see what rooms categories are put in the new tower. If they are going to be different associations, I think there will have to be a ton of studios in the new tower because how would it look for those with brand new poly2 points to have studios all booked up, waiting for the 7 month mark to try to transfer into a stay at the resort they just bought into?

 

[Jlo85]

The reason same association would be great for me is that I could buy more poly points, and they would be direct.

To me as a Poly owner, this is why having the same association seems like an easier add-on sell for Disney. And I think since Poly is so big, they’re going to want to come to those owners for add-ons. I personally want to add-on to afford a bungalow at some point. But going from 20 points/night for a studio to 140 points/night for a bungalow is a big stretch. With room types in-between, it makes that add-on much easier to sell long-term.

 

[BeachClub2014]

To me as a Poly owner, this is why having the same association seems like an easier add-on sell for Disney. And I think since Poly is so big, they’re going to want to come to those owners for add-ons. I personally want to add-on to afford a bungalow at some point. But going from 20 points/night for a studio apartment to 140 points/night is a big stretch. With room types in-between, it makes that add-on much easier to sell long-term.

As a non-PVB owner, this is exactly why we wouldn't buy if it is in the same association.