Why are Disney's Posted waits for Stand-by a lot longer than actual SB waits?

[mjhannaf]

disneywaittimes.com was pretty accurate during my stay.

Posted wait time last Tuesday for SDMT was 60, disneywaittimes.com had it at 25, it was 25 on the nose. Great resource.

As the creator of the site, that is awesome to hear!

I just linked to the Android app that is up to the second (when you refresh) vs 2-5 min delay on DisneyWaitTimes.com

 

[Jrits]

Is there an app for apple phones for disneywaittimes.com?

 

[wisblue]

In our experience, the posted wait times have always been most inflated in the first hour or so because lines are still growing from the first wave of entrants, and near closing as they try to deter more people from entering the line. In the middle of the day they tend to be more accurate, but are still usually inflated by 10-15 minutes, as stated by the PP who worked in attractions.

I would also think that the existence of FPs makes predicting standby waits tougher. The wait can be estimated by the size of the line, but if a disproportionate number of people suddenly show up with FPs the standby line will slow down. Conversely, if hardly anyone comes with FPs for 10 minutes or so, the standby line will move more quickly.

I don't see how it would be possible to post totally accurate standby waits. If someone enters the standby line and gets in the ride in 30 minutes, all that tells you is that the wait was 30 minutes 30 minutes ago. The current wait is going to depend on how many people have joined the standby line since then and how many people come with FPs.

 

[mjhannaf]

Is there an app for apple phones for disneywaittimes.com?

No, I wish the barrier to entry for developers wasn't so high to make an iOS app.

That said, the website is mobile friendly and should work on Apple devices. Also, I'm trying to find a way to make an iOS app as I know there are quite a few iPhones in WDW

 

[mjhannaf]

In our experience, the posted wait times have always been most inflated in the first hour or so because lines are still growing from the first wave of entrants, and near closing as they try to deter more people from entering the line. In the middle of the day they tend to be more accurate, but are still usually inflated by 10-15 minutes, as stated by the PP who worked in attractions.

I would also think that the existence of FPs makes predicting standby waits tougher. The wait can be estimated by the size of the line, but if a disproportionate number of people suddenly show up with FPs the standby line will slow down. Conversely, if hardly anyone comes with FPs for 10 minutes or so, the standby line will move more quickly.

I don't see how it would be possible to post totally accurate standby waits. If someone enters the standby line and gets in the ride in 30 minutes, all that tells you is that the wait was 30 minutes 30 minutes ago. The current wait is going to depend on how many people have joined the standby line since then and how many people come with FPs.

You've hit the nail on the head. Nobody can have completely accurate actual times, only the most accurate.

Also, there are a variety of factors (some that you have mentioned) that play a critical role.

 

[BuzzinDownToDisney]

Could it be Disney’s attempt to convince guests to use FP+ to avoid log waits?

Then why do it for SDMT? You can't get a FP for that.

 

[Suvadoo]

Then why do it for SDMT? You can't get a FP for that.

Possibly it's to teach guests that in the future, if they want to avoid lines, they should book FP before their next vacation. Really I don't know why, it's all speculation.
But to over-inflate a wait time by as much as 2 hours is pretty crappy. I don't expect posted wait times to be accurate, but I view a 1-2 hour discrepancy as deceitful.

 

[Suvadoo]

As the creator of the site, that is awesome to hear!

I just linked to the Android app that is up to the second (when you refresh) vs 2-5 min delay on DisneyWaitTimes.com

How do you obtain the actual wait times? Do you need volunteers to submit their actual waits when they're in the parks?

Thanks for the site, as you can see, you have quite a few fans on the boards.

 

[mjhannaf]

How do you obtain the actual wait times? Do you need volunteers to submit their actual waits when they're in the parks?

Thanks for the site, as you can see, you have quite a few fans on the boards.

No need for input from guests, just magic

I'm humbled by all the support! This just started as a weekend project that turned into something that has consumed my free time. I'm happy to see that people have been able to use my site to enhance their vacation and decision making while at the parks.

I spend quite a bit of times at the parks myself and like to use the app/website

 

[FlipHipster]

The other thing to remember in all of this is Disney is attempting to give an indication of what the wait time will be while the reported wait times are what they just where. Early in the morning TSMM may show a 60 minute wait because they expect the wait to hit 50+ minutes by 9:15 in the morning. So, instead of having the wait time be constantly behind the curve they post it at 60 minutes until there is evidence it's not going to hit that level then back it off.

This. I think Disney knows what to expect. I have been tracking these for a little while and they are very consistent. 7DMT for instance goes to 90mins posted at opening ~20 mins SB. SB steadily grows to ~50 mins by 11:00 or so and posted time has dropped to around 60 and they stay pretty close for most of the day until evening. I believe this Disney a) trying to keep SB from getting crazy right at RD and b) because they know that at some point a whole bunch of FP riders are going to show up and the SB really will be 60 mins. They are basically playing traffic cop. I can prob graph a day if interested.

 

[FlipHipster]

I’m looking at current wait times ( at 9:26 am) for the Magic Kingdom and according to Disney, Seven Dwarfs Mine Train has a posted wait of 90 mins, but the actual stand by wait ( posted by guests) is 22 minutes. The Anna and Elsa Meet and Greet is posted at 110 minutes and the actual wait is 31 minutes.
The source is: http://disneywaittimes.com

Why are the posted wait times so much higher than the actual wait times. Could it be Disney’s attempt to convince guests to use FP+ to avoid log waits? I’d be really interested to hear from people in the parks, are their SB wait times a lot less than the waits posted by Disney?

 

[Bullseye]

I don't see how it would be possible to post totally accurate standby waits. If someone enters the standby line and gets in the ride in 30 minutes, all that tells you is that the wait was 30 minutes 30 minutes ago. The current wait is going to depend on how many people have joined the standby line since then and how many people come with FPs.

That does it , the next time a CM asks me to carry one of those necklaces with the red card attached to the front of the line...I'm not doing it!!

 

[cmpeter]

Why do they do it first thing in the morning? To encourage people to ride Figment, Hall of Presidents, and other less popular attractions rather than Soarin' and Space Mountain. Like the PP said, crowd control and distribution reasons.

We know someone that helps with the programming of the wait times at WDW...according to them, it's all done for crowd control and distribution.

 

[FlipHipster]

We know someone that helps with the programming of the wait times at WDW...according to them, it's all done for crowd control and distribution.

It seems to work. I think 7DMT may still be some what of an outlier only because it doesn't have much history and still has the "new" factor.

On a "normal" day with rides like TSMM, BTMRR, you can really see it. Huge spike in posted either proceeds or follows a spike in actual times. If it's before, Disney probably knows what is coming and is trying to get ahead of it. It seems like during the middle parts of the day, if actual times get high, Disney will crank the posted time up and that almost always results in a drop in actual times as people avoid the line.

Like this, Big Thunder yesterday

 

[mjhannaf]

Edit: Spoke too soon

 

[Suvadoo]

Actual wait times may be a thing of the past as of this morning...

Why?

 

[wareagle57]

Actual wait times may be a thing of the past as of this morning...

I had a bad feeling Disney would put a stop to this before it got to my trip. Did they force you to stop using them or did they find a way to hide the information?

 

[mjhannaf]

I had a bad feeling Disney would put a stop to this before it got to my trip.

Yeah, it's a bummer.

EDIT: Looks like it's back!

 

[Planogirl]

I wonder how much this depends on time of day? We have definitely waited in lines that accurately reflect the posted wait time too. I've learned to trust what the Peter Pan wait time says for example, at least at the time we ride it.

This is very interesting.

 

[wareagle57]

Yeah, it's a bummer.

EDIT: Looks like it's back!

So strange. SOME are back, and I'm guessing the rest will follow. Maybe Disney is inputting dummy actual wait times now to make your site useless.