Why are Disney's Posted waits for Stand-by a lot longer than actual SB waits?

[mjhannaf]

So strange. SOME are back, and I'm guessing the rest will follow. Maybe Disney is inputting dummy actual wait times now to make your site useless.

I'd feel honored that they'd pay someone to mess with the site, lol.

My guess is that their systems were down this morning for some reason. The nice thing is that this little blip as lit a fire for me to finish my other cool Disney project...

 

[johde]

I wonder how much this depends on time of day? We have definitely waited in lines that accurately reflect the posted wait time too. I've learned to trust what the Peter Pan wait time says for example, at least at the time we ride it.

This is very interesting.

If your curious, Touringplans.com has that information (on the free side) for the past couple of years along with their predictions and day of adjustments to predictions (that you could have taken advantage of if you pay). Their "actual" wait times are user submitted. Peter Pan for yesterday is found here.

http://touringplans.com/magic-kingdom/attractions/peter-pans-flight/wait-times/date/2014-11-04

It shows a consistent "small" overestimation of actual wait times.

 

[Planogirl]

If your curious, Touringplans.com has that information (on the free side) for the past couple of years along with their predictions and day of adjustments to predictions (that you could have taken advantage of if you pay). Their "actual" wait times are user submitted. Peter Pan for yesterday is found here.

http://touringplans.com/magic-kingdom/attractions/peter-pans-flight/wait-times/date/2014-11-04

It shows a consistent "small" overestimation of actual wait times.

The actual wait times that people posted seem to be all over the place! I see that they are usually lower though. Thanks for posting that.

Actually I kind of knew what to expect in the past. Things seem to be different nowadays.

 

[APiratesLifeForMe2]

I'd feel honored that they'd pay someone to mess with the site, lol.

My guess is that their systems were down this morning for some reason. The nice thing is that this little blip as lit a fire for me to finish my other cool Disney project...

Sounds interesting! If your wait time site was a weekend project I bet this one is even better.

 

[DISNEYD14]

BTMR was posted as 40 minute wait and we waited 15?!!
We risked it because we could just look at the line and tell no way 40 minutes.

 

[wisblue]

That does it , the next time a CM asks me to carry one of those necklaces with the red card attached to the front of the line...I'm not doing it!!

I think you're joking, but that data does help them to evaluate how the line is moving and how accurate their posted wait times WERE. That will help them to post more accurate wait times going forward.

 

[LBIJim]

BTMR was posted as 40 minute wait and we waited 15?!!
We risked it because we could just look at the line and tell no way 40 minutes.

Where do they put the people when the actual wait time is 40 minutes or longer? We rode BTMRR three times one day last week. Once with a FP, twice standby. One of the standby waits was listed accurately at 15 minutes and the crowd was going down the ramp toward the entrance. I noticed a small area to the left of the entrance they could use, but that might account for only another 10-15 minutes.

Do they set up temporary poles and ropes? I don't think I've waited more than 20 minutes for BTMRR in a decade or more.

 

[wisblue]

Yeah, it's a bummer.

EDIT: Looks like it's back!

As long as your are looking at this thread, I noticed that the update time on the site has not been adjusted for the end of Daylight Saving Time. It now says 11:44 EST, but it is really 10:44 EST (and 11:44 EDT).

 

[wisblue]

Where do they put the people when the actual wait time is 40 minutes or longer? We rode BTMRR three times one day last week. Once with a FP, twice standby. One of the standby waits was listed accurately at 15 minutes and the crowd was going down the ramp toward the entrance. I noticed a small area to the left of the entrance they could use, but that might account for only another 10-15 minutes.

Do they set up temporary poles and ropes? I don't think I've waited more than 20 minutes for BTMRR in a decade or more.

There is a lot of room up there to create long, snaking lines. They can use as much or as little of that as they want by using ropes to cut off certain lanes.

 

[DISNEYD14]

Where do they put the people when the actual wait time is 40 minutes or longer? We rode BTMRR three times one day last week. Once with a FP, twice standby. One of the standby waits was listed accurately at 15 minutes and the crowd was going down the ramp toward the entrance. I noticed a small area to the left of the entrance they could use, but that might account for only another 10-15 minutes.

Do they set up temporary poles and ropes? I don't think I've waited more than 20 minutes for BTMRR in a decade or more.

** There are a lot of twists and turns up there and I could see it lasting 30- maybe 40 minutes ** but I never waited more than 10-15 last week.
** I waited longer for A&E with a FP+ ** They took an awfully long time with each family. I was actually annoyed. We respected others time but still. I get my kids in there get their autographs and a quick pic. Other families were lasting 10+ minutes

 

[Moonwolf]

I actually appreciate the fact that the posted waits are a little longer than actual times. If the posted wait is 20 mins and your out of the ride in under that time it's a good feeling because now you have extra time (which I think what Disney is going for).

Posted waits are great but as people have mentioned that they cannot be completely accurate due to the fact that they can't tell if a large group has just entered the line. I think the best wait time estimates are the signs "you have a wait of x mins from this point". The only problem with this is integrating FP+ in those estimates and the fact that lines get reconfigured, closing some parts and redirecting other, depending on the crows.

 

[mjhannaf]

As long as your are looking at this thread, I noticed that the update time on the site has not been adjusted for the end of Daylight Saving Time. It now says 11:44 EST, but it is really 10:44 EST (and 11:44 EDT).

Thanks! Fixed. Stupid DST.

 

[LBIJim]

There is a lot of room up there to create long, snaking lines. They can use as much or as little of that as they want by using ropes to cut off certain lanes.

Yeah, but even upstairs about 90% of the queue was in use last week. Maybe 5 more minutes tops if it was full. They have to have some place to put excess crowds when the actual wait is more than 45 minutes or so. Maybe they snake them along toward Splash.

 

[wisblue]

Yeah, but even upstairs about 90% of the queue was in use last week. Maybe 5 more minutes tops if it was full. They have to have some place to put excess crowds when the actual wait is more than 45 minutes or so. Maybe they snake them along toward Splash.

Can't really answer that because we have occasionally waited for close to 30 minutes and it was all covered. Maybe the line was moving steadily and people got themselves spaced out.

 

[jahber]

Can't really answer that because we have occasionally waited for close to 30 minutes and it was all covered. Maybe the line was moving steadily and people got themselves spaced out.

Must be, because whenever I've seen the entire covered queue full, the line was 30+ minutes (even as much as 60) and it wasn't moving fast at all. It really really depends on how many FP+ people they are letting through. I've waited several minutes at the merge point while FP+ people streamed through one party after the other. But honestly, I've only even seen the entirety of the queue being used a few times and those were peak times. It's a HUGE queue line when it's all being used.

If the SB line was moving steadily through the entire queue, they couldn't have been letting many FP+ through.

 

[Suvadoo]

I actually appreciate the fact that the posted waits are a little longer than actual times. If the posted wait is 20 mins and your out of the ride in under that time it's a good feeling because now you have extra time (which I think what Disney is going for).

Posted waits are great but as people have mentioned that they cannot be completely accurate due to the fact that they can't tell if a large group has just entered the line. I think the best wait time estimates are the signs "you have a wait of x mins from this point". The only problem with this is integrating FP+ in those estimates and the fact that lines get reconfigured, closing some parts and redirecting other, depending on the crows.

I agree with you I like when my wait is shorter than posted, but Disney's posting SB line waits that are 1-2 hours longer than the people in the queue are actually waiting.

 

[Bluegrrl]

Keep in mind the fact that people generally have issues with "packing the line" and even remembering how many people are in their party. When I was working gmr, we tried hard to pack the line and encourage people to move quickly, as well as get correct body counts. All that figures into wait times. Pack that line and suddenly wait times go down - I've seen it happen.

 

[jtowntoflorida]

BTMR was posted as 40 minute wait and we waited 15?!!
We risked it because we could just look at the line and tell no way 40 minutes.

And that's where veterans will always have an advantage over a newbie, even with inflated wait times...veterans have a pretty good idea of what a wait will really be by looking at the queue. We rode TSM twice this summer SB. Once the posted time was 50 minutes, the other time it was 70. Both times we peeked into the queue and realized that there was no way the line was really going to take that long. We were through the line both times in under 25 minutes. The second time (when the posted wait was 70) we actually made it to the merge point in 12 minutes, but we were held there for another 10 even though only one party came through the FP+ line in that time. That was a little frustrating.

 

[hakepb]

As others have said, this has been going on forever. It's so guests can say, "hey, that line was supposed to be one hour, but we got on in 20 minutes! How great was that?)

And in the morning, most rides are listed as 5-10 minute wait - mainly an over estimation on Disney's part.

Or ToT with a 13 minute wait instead of posting anything under 15 minutes