Where is the DVC market going?

[mikeandkarla]

Where is DVC going is a big question (one we ask ourselves a LOT since we are in talks to buy-in AKV).

I think it is growing exponentially and that the existing resorts will not depreciate that much if at all. Why? Because DVC will continue to grow - probably branching out into an upscale Contemporary Villa (with costs to match) and another SSR style when the time is right. To keep people buying in and growing, they have to keep ROFR. When "time" (10-15 years left) becomes a factor on the older resorts - they'll release what their intention is. And they won't turn their back on the 50-60,000 ppl who helped build the program. So I won't be surprised to see a time 10-15 years from now when the older resorts actually become desireable because of the deal DVC puts on the table for those owners to "buy-in" again when their current contracts expire in 2042...

Just my 2 cents...

Chris

Rest assured that Disney probably already has figured out their game plan when the time comes(2042). They seem to leave no stone unturned. What an awesome company.

 

[rinkwide]

...I think the probability of BCV coming down to $90 is zero.

Could we get an official comment from Dean on this subject?

 

[drakethib]

I would buy now if you are thinking about it.

I still think the prices even for OKW will continue to rise for the next few years.

 

[Cruelladeville]

I'm not sure, but I think I've seen a little lower than that. Seems to me I've seen $55-57 when DVC first started. I'm sure someone knows for sure.

Jim, you are correct. When OKW was in the pre- or early construction phase, they offered points at $47. After they opened , the price went to $50. I bought in 1997 at $56 a point, showing that the points slowly rose, from 1992-97. After that, things started taking off. There are some of us that even remember Disney trying to sell Vero at $50 as a promotional thing. Those days are behind us, though. Prices have NEVER gone down, and won't until we get closer to the end.

 

[CR88]

Here is an interesting link to a historical table of DVC prices.

http://www.****************/DVCPriceHistory.html

 

[CR88]

oops, I guess the website got blocked out. But it is an interesting link if you find it.

 

[M&Mwish]

Help I can't find the link. I'd love to see this chart. Please let me know!! Thanks, Michele

 

[disney dumbo]

Interesting!
Thanks for posting the site...
I found it by doing a google search for
DVCPriceHistory.html

M&Mwish, maybe you can find it that way, too.
(I don't think I know how to post it on this site.)

 

[tom401]

It is funny - while the resale market 'acts' like a free market - it really is controlled by disney through the ROFR process. You need to think like them. As long as the BCV, Boardwalk, etc are nice and desirable as a home resort for buyers, the price will stay up - I am sure Disney has (and will for years) plenty of people willing to buy at Beach Club vs Animal Kingdom - only because of the 11 month window.

 

[CR88]

Interesting!
Thanks for posting the site...
I found it by doing a google search for
DVCPriceHistory.html

M&Mwish, maybe you can find it that way, too.
(I don't think I know how to post it on this site.)

No problem. It is pretty interesting to see the rapid price increases. Not sure why that site is blocked though.

 

[Dean]

It's likely the 2042 resorts are at or near a peak and will start to decrease in value over the new few years. They will also drift apart from the resorts with a later RTU. The smaller more in demand resorts will obviously continue to be higher than those more easily found resale. Expect AKV and any newer high demand resorts to take the course of the current higher demand resorts. Obvioiusly market forces, the retail price and ROFR will all affect specifics but I think you can count on the generalities I've posted. By comparison SSR will start to drift away from OKW/VB/HH and that the same will happen for the more in demand resorts.

 

[Mickmse2002]

So you're all making me think I should sell my BWV points that I paid $65 for and cash-in while they are near their peak.

 

[CarolA]

I bought OKW at $58 a point (re-sale) That contract will probably go on the market this summer. With my VAK purchase I have more points then I need (want is a different matter LOL!) Since I won't sell my BCV and the other contracts (SSR and VAK) have longer expirations, it makes the most sense to sell OKW....
I think BCV is near it's peak, but I also think that if you want that location for times like Food & Wine, early December etc that 11 month window is vital so I will keep those points regardless of the resale price. I won't be happy if during Food & Wine I have to stay at SSR (Which I do enjoy at other times.)

 

[Maistre Gracey]

The early resorts may start to drift, but I doubt by a whole lot. It really depends if you adjust for inflation. If you look at a raw number, the number will likely not decrease all that much, even at the very end. Of course, once you adjust for inflation, that "number" will not be worth what it is today.

All that said, there is still 35 years left on the early resorts.
I think the 'ole fellas have a few good years left in them before we send 'em out to pasture...

MG

 

[Dean]

So you're all making me think I should sell my BWV points that I paid $65 for and cash-in while they are near their peak.

I think it depends on your future and long term plans. Anyone planning to sell in the next few years should likely start to consider selling. Anyone planning to keep until the end likely shouldn't care very much. Fortunately barring a major issue financially that affects all our memberships, the changes should be slow over time.

Having said that I added on a AKV and I currently have a contract on my OKW contract. I will likely sell my BWV contract in a few years. But part of my plan was to downsize.

 

[Mickmse2002]

I think it depends on your future and long term plans. Anyone planning to sell in the next few years should likely start to consider selling. Anyone planning to keep until the end likely shouldn't care very much. Fortunately barring a major issue financially that affects all our memberships, the changes should be slow over time.

Having said that I added on a AKV and I currently have a contract on my OKW contract. I will likely sell my BWV contract in a few years. But part of my plan was to downsize.

My only real reason to sell is that I don't like the resort. I would probably turn around and re-purchase at a different resort with the later expiration.

 

[childsplay]

Having said that I added on a AKV and I currently have a contract on my OKW contract. I will likely sell my BWV contract in a few years. But part of my plan was to downsize.

I'm surprised to hear that you added at AKV, I was under the impression you were going to downsize your interest (to a minimum number of points just to retain some of the perks and ease of use that comes with ownership ....transfers and such) and just trade into DVC using your other timeshares? Have your plans changed?

 

[Dean]

My only real reason to sell is that I don't like the resort. I would probably turn around and re-purchase at a different resort with the later expiration.

It's hard to justify selling to rebuy about the same number of points. Even if you can't get what you want consistently such as SV or BW view at BWV or BCV 2 queens in the second, the price difference is significant.

I'm surprised to hear that you added at AKV, I was under the impression you were going to downsize your interest (to a minimum number of points just to retain some of the perks and ease of use that comes with ownership ....transfers and such) and just trade into DVC using your other timeshares? Have your plans changed?

And that is the long range plan. The problem is that I don't currently own anything that would have worked without adding on or buying something else. One of my options was simply keeping the BWV points and renting them out when I didn't need them. Contrary to what some believe, I would rather not rent and only do so as a secondary issue. I also believe that AKV will have a much better long term value in terms of both $$$ value and our personal use.

 

[M&Mwish]

CR88 and DisneyDumbo

Thanks! I was able to get the DVC History Chart! Exactly what we were looking for! Thanks, Michele

 

[YoMickey]

Hmmm. Interesting question. It never really crossed my mind.

I'm 38 with 3 kids under 7 years old. I'll be in my 70's when the BCV contract is up.

We bought it to use it. It will not be rented. It will be used by us or given to relatives.

Only regret is not buying in sooner. Paid $90/point 1 year ago.

We'll be there in 2 days!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! and again in December and again in Feb. of 2008!!!!!!!!!

Potential future buyer of any monorail DVC.