Where is the DVC market going?

[CarolA]

I also think the "upgrade" chances at AK are going down. If you book a standard room at ALK I doubt you are going to get upgraded to a studio at VAK and if there are fewer rooms with Savannah view your chances of the "dumb luck" upgrade get smaller. For me the risk has never been worth it as I know I would be MISERABLE in a standard or pool view room there. I won't pay for a view anyplace else at Disney, but....

 

[Dean]

With you to a point, I just think that at WDW, location trumps all.

I don't disagree in general terms of "location" and I don't think you are overestimating location in terms of BCV or BWV but feel you are underestimating Animal Kingdom which I'd put equivalent to VWL. I also think the room types will give it a big push much as BWV gets from the SV and BW view units. I also feel that a DVC at AK will "put it on the map" so to speak. Time will tell.

 

[tacomaranch]

We just bought a resale from Tom at the TTS and it is at OKW. I did question myself as the life of the contract vs buying direct from DVC at the $86 for SSR but in the end we love OKW and really don't want anything else.

Heck, I will be dead in 20 years and I don't think I will laying in my grave wondering about the years left on my contract.

We are happy to have bought just this year and will sell when the time is right and we don't have the health to go back to WDW. Our DS has special needs so we will just leave the money back to him.

DVC is not for an investment of money but an investment in family.

 

[bongo59]

i bought in in 1991, and we are now at Vero Beach now..........we paid 45 dollars a point back then. When we bought into BCV it was the first week at 65 dollars. It has never come down to that again and i doubt it will

 

[bongo59]

Pre-sale at OKW was $48.

that does not include the lifetime passes some of us got.................for joining early

 

[Slakk]

And will the prices stay that low with the VOLUME of rooms that they are losing? Plus you can't get a Savannah view for the sub $200 rate. Those rooms go for more now trust me I have tried. There are folks like me who won't stay there without a Savannah view!

Exactly, with DVC is taking rooms away from the existing hotel rooms which should make prices go up for what is left.

 

[LarryKeith]

I bought OKW at $58 a point (re-sale) That contract will probably go on the market this summer. With my VAK purchase I have more points then I need (want is a different matter LOL!) Since I won't sell my BCV and the other contracts (SSR and VAK) have longer expirations, it makes the most sense to sell OKW....
I think BCV is near it's peak, but I also think that if you want that location for times like Food & Wine, early December etc that 11 month window is vital so I will keep those points regardless of the resale price. I won't be happy if during Food & Wine I have to stay at SSR (Which I do enjoy at other times.)

I just bought 100 AKV pts. and keep wondering if I should just use the points to extend me BCV stays. I would have a hard time being convinced to sell them to buy a resort with more years on contract. It is just like going home, geez I can't wait till august to go home.

 

[LarryKeith]

But one of the problems is that many of the members here know nothing but DVC and what's posted on this board, hardly a well rounded view. Many also are blinded by Disney and DVC in general. If I feel I'm correct and have more knowledge than most here, what should I say? As far as changing my mind, I don't set my mind without real information and if hard evidence is provided to the contrary, I'll gladly change my mind.[/QUOTE]


How many DVC nightmares have you heard, reading this you would think that a person couldn't post a negative revue on these boards. I'm not talking about renting pts or some issue involving something outside of the mouse. But I believe that DVC is a great business for everyone involved. If people were having less than adequate experiences with DVC I think it would dominate these boards. As far as people looking through rose colored glasses, its because the Magic is real. when I bought DVC it was like hitting a lottery. Imagine a Timeshare thats honest and real, no BBB alerts, a room thats better than you ever could imagine, in a place thats better than you can imagine, at a price thats affordable for most families. I have to greatly disagree with your comment. And this list should be enough evidence to change your mind.

 

[Starr W.]

Exactly, with DVC is taking rooms away from the existing hotel rooms which should make prices go up for what is left.

I like to check the WDWTC website to see what is available in "regular" reservations, also check on Expedia. Now I usually give myself a 3+month window, but you can usually get a room at AKL. WDWTC always recommends to me the GF .

Like CarolA, I won't stay unless I get the savannah view(what's the point to AKL if you don't).

 

[rinkwide]

...DVC is taking rooms away from the existing hotel rooms which should make prices go up for what is left.

Maybe, but only temporarily.

The addition of 500 plus DVC rooms to the AK complex will create new factors that will tend to keep Lodge pricing depressed. First, many AKL regulars will be absorbed into the DVC program which will free up Lodge rooms. Also, a fair portion of the new DVC complex will remain in CRO inventory. As well, existing DVC members won't be allowed to stay in Lodge rooms on points anymore. And finally, rooms in the new complex will be available for rent via DVC members at greatly reduced pricing.

When you combine these factors with it's narrowly appealing theme and the resort's isolated nature I think it's safe to say that AKL will remain the discount deluxe for the foreseeable future.

 

[Maistre Gracey]

that does not include the lifetime passes some of us got.................for joining early

Lifetime? I always thought it was for a finite period.

MG

 

[Dean]

How many DVC nightmares have you heard, reading this you would think that a person couldn't post a negative revue on these boards. I'm not talking about renting pts or some issue involving something outside of the mouse. But I believe that DVC is a great business for everyone involved. If people were having less than adequate experiences with DVC I think it would dominate these boards. As far as people looking through rose colored glasses, its because the Magic is real. when I bought DVC it was like hitting a lottery. Imagine a Timeshare thats honest and real, no BBB alerts, a room thats better than you ever could imagine, in a place thats better than you can imagine, at a price thats affordable for most families. I have to greatly disagree with your comment. And this list should be enough evidence to change your mind.

Remember you're on a Disney oriented board. Those that weren't happy have sold and moved on. There have certainly been many issues posted on this board, many appropriate and many related to unrealistic expectations. To be honest, I think I hear far more issues with DVC than I do Marriott or similar companies overall. And while DVC resorts are nice, the idea that they are nicer than all else is simply untrue. resorts side by side there are a number of resorts that many would consider even nicer than the DVC resorts. And there are a large group of people that actually PREFER to stay off property. I'm not negative on DVC, just realistic. DVC is my first love but it's not a perfect system.

 

[3DisneyKids]

that does not include the lifetime passes some of us got.................for joining early

I'm sure that you mean the free park passes that you got the first several years to use during your stays. These were not lifetime passes. Unless I totally missed something???? Anyone?

 

[3DisneyKids]

Maybe, but only temporarily.

The addition of 500 plus DVC rooms to the AK complex will create new factors that will tend to keep Lodge pricing depressed. First, many AKL regulars will be absorbed into the DVC program which will free up Lodge rooms. Also, a fair portion of the new DVC complex will remain in CRO inventory. As well, existing DVC members won't be allowed to stay in Lodge rooms on points anymore. And finally, rooms in the new complex will be available for rent via DVC members at greatly reduced pricing.

When you combine these factors with it's narrowly appealing theme and the resort's isolated nature I think it's safe to say that AKL will remain the discount deluxe for the foreseeable future.

And let's also remember that AKL was having a VERY hard time filling to begin with. It was rarely at capacity.

 

[JLS]

How do people get some of the information posted here, including info that Disney was having trouble keeping the AKL booked to capacity? I am not doubting the information, just curious as to the source.

The biggest problem that I see with the VAK is the increased demand for the restaurants. Boma, in particular, is almost always a mob scene, with hour waits even early in the evening without a reservation. Even with a resevation we nearly always wait to eat. I know VAK is building another restaurant - I hope its huge and really excellent like Boma, or Boma will be overrun by the new capacity.

I also hope they build a main VAK pool that is much larger than the main pool at Saratoga, which is, IMO, way too small for a complex that size.

I am debating buying VAK points, but we already have 300 points at BCV, and I am interested in buying into another nice system like Hyatt Vacation Club to give other vacation options besides Orlando, as I don't think trading DVC offers the best value. And we LOVE BCV so much that I'm not sure we would want to stay for a week at VAK.

 

[JPC]

How do people get some of the information posted here, including info that Disney was having trouble keeping the AKL booked to capacity? I am not doubting the information, just curious as to the source.

The biggest problem that I see with the VAK is the increased demand for the restaurants. Boma, in particular, is almost always a mob scene, with hour waits even early in the evening without a reservation. Even with a resevation we nearly always wait to eat. I know VAK is building another restaurant - I hope its huge and really excellent like Boma, or Boma will be overrun by the new capacity.

I also hope they build a main VAK pool that is much larger than the main pool at Saratoga, which is, IMO, way too small for a complex that size.

I am debating buying VAK points, but we already have 300 points at BCV, and I am interested in buying into another nice system like Hyatt Vacation Club to give other vacation options besides Orlando, as I don't think trading DVC offers the best value. And we LOVE BCV so much that I'm not sure we would want to stay for a week at VAK.

Abouy 99.9% call me before they post just to make sure the facts are straight.

 

[Starr W.]

How do people get some of the information posted here, including info that Disney was having trouble keeping the AKL booked to capacity? I am not doubting the information, just curious as to the source.

The biggest problem that I see with the VAK is the increased demand for the restaurants. Boma, in particular, is almost always a mob scene, with hour waits even early in the evening without a reservation. Even with a resevation we nearly always wait to eat. I know VAK is building another restaurant - I hope its huge and really excellent like Boma, or Boma will be overrun by the new capacity.

I also hope they build a main VAK pool that is much larger than the main pool at Saratoga, which is, IMO, way too small for a complex that size.

I am debating buying VAK points, but we already have 300 points at BCV, and I am interested in buying into another nice system like Hyatt Vacation Club to give other vacation options besides Orlando, as I don't think trading DVC offers the best value. And we LOVE BCV so much that I'm not sure we would want to stay for a week at VAK.

I personally go on WDW online booking and Expedia and put in dates at various times(holidays mostly) usually a couple of months out. I can always get a room at AKL or GF 2-3 months from the holiday.

 

[jade1]

As far as where the price going...
did some checking...
rack rate off season at Beach Club 1nt= roughly $355 studio or room

Say you pay $98/pt and only have 4 years left on contract = $24.50/point/year
Add todays MF approx. $5/pt = $29.50

Cost (in today's money) 12 points for studio = $354

If room rates escalate like I'm imagining they will (and I'm sure MF will go up too)... it still makes me think that even with just 4 years left on contract...
when selling your DVC contract you would probably get your $98 back and that's 30 years from now.

ITA.

What will BCV (or any older DVC's) sell or rent for in 2041? Even 1 year left might be worth $20 a point (or more)-meaning a studio during the week would rent for $250 a night-(maybe even $1,000 by then). What about with 2 years left-$40?, how about 10 years left-$100? Even with 10 years left, buying at $100 plus 10 years of dues at $10 would be $200 a point over 10 years or $20 a year per point-that may be an incredible deal if rooms are closer to $500 or $1,000 a night and this way they are only $250.

 

[Dean]

ITA.

What will BCV (or any older DVC's) sell or rent for in 2041? Even 1 year left might be worth $20 a point (or more)-meaning a studio during the week would rent for $250 a night-(maybe even $1,000 by then). What about with 2 years left-$40?, how about 10 years left-$100? Even with 10 years left, buying at $100 plus 10 years of dues at $10 would be $200 a point over 10 years or $20 a year per point-that may be an incredible deal if rooms are closer to $500 or $1,000 a night and this way they are only $250.

The last 2-3 years I doubt they will even be worth the closing and maint fees. My thoughts are that we're near the top for the 2042 resorts. I feel those that think they'll just keep going up related to hotel costs are kidding themselves. Timeshares rarely track hotel costs very well, even for places like Marriott.

 

[DVCPAT]

The last 2-3 years I doubt they will even be worth the closing and maint fees. My thoughts are that we're near the top for the 2042 resorts. I feel those that think they'll just keep going up related to hotel costs are kidding themselves. Timeshares rarely track hotel costs very well, even for places like Marriott.

If Disney is going strong in 2040, why would the resorts value not correlate with Disney’s success? DVC is simply a WDW accommodation, why wouldn’t its value be directly tied to WDW room rates?