Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?

[sethschroeder]

But those $9-10 point type of rentals are ones that are like two weeks out etc and if they cancel them i would assume they would go into holding or expire. It's not like I can get a November reservation right now at $9-10, those are still going for $18-$19

$13 I think it was on this site until December. Likely could find cheaper if I cared. Like could get cheaper in spring if I proactively took all the persons points and outlined I wouldn't ask for any changes.

 

[Galun]

$13 I think it was on this site until December. Likely could find cheaper if I cared. Like could get cheaper in spring if I proactively took all the persons points and outlined I wouldn't ask for any changes.

I rented out a few hundred points last week at $13, 11/30/20 expiration. I could probably have gotten $14+ if I had waited. I had some time on Sunday so I took a lower price to deal with it all in one day. It took me about 3 hours to rent them all out. That time savings was worth the $1 discount to me.

If anything, based on how quickly I rented out the points in the middle of covid, it made me even more comfortable with owning DVC points. My maintenance fee was less than $7. I paid around $60 per point. 10% return for 3 hours of work. That actually beats the S&P 500. (annualized return of 9.8% over the past 90 years).

 

[Brianstl]

But those $9-10 point type of rentals are ones that are like two weeks out etc and if they cancel them i would assume they would go into holding or expire. It's not like I can get a November reservation right now at $9-10, those are still going for $18-$19

They are some that are almost two months out.

 

[poofyo101]

I apologize if someone posted this and I missed it but DVCRM posted their July average prices and they are up significantly at many resorts. As has been noted in this thread and the lowball thread repeatedly, AKV in particular has seen a huge increase in price in 2 months for no real reason at all.
https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-july-2020/

View attachment 516220

I had said a few days ago it seemed that Poly and AKV both had gone up in value and demand.

 

[sethschroeder]

I had said a few days ago it seemed that Poly and AKV both had gone up in value and demand.

Meh

Plenty of Poly being reduced in to the high 130s and still not selling just on Fidelity.

Went through the numbers before but with 35% of the contracts at 100 points or less I think there is a incorrect analysis occurring looking at the average cost of contracts.

Its the same with AKV being over valued on that site. For me it's exactly what I looked at when listing my smaller BWV contracts though (sold through DVC Store). Was looking for a market where the pricing was inflated so it didn't look too expensive.

To be clear contracts from 150 to 1000 always seems to be in the same ballpark but high volume gets a slight discount. With sub 100 point contracts though they usually have a steep multiplyer on them because it's rare for the perfect UY to come up and the difference of 160 vs 130 on a 25 point contract is $750.

These are all just observed trends.

 

[bookwormde]

8/6 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 220% of average

 

[bookwormde]

Meh


Went through the numbers before but with 35% of the contracts at 100 points or less I think there is a incorrect analysis occurring looking at the average cost of contracts.

Yes the analysis has lot of "noise" in it because of variable contract sizes, point status, and contract coming on that the market well above the selling range.

Like most data, looking at long term trends is the real value, not day to day oven one month to the next.

 

[sethschroeder]

Yes the analysis has lot of "noise" in it because of variable contract sizes, point status, and contract coming on that the market well above the selling range.

Like most data, looking at long term trends is the real value, not day to day oven one month to the next.

I would like a data point on contract size typically on sale. It's just a hunch people are selling off smaller portions as they see an excess of points in their future with banking (not needing points) or in my case (sold 2 small contracts) saw an ability to upgrade to more points or direct.

Doubt we can get that without really going through the weeds on the comptroller site though.

 

[BennyBoyWrench]

On the latest DVC Show they hypothesized that resale will become more and more popular, not just due to lowering prices, but lack of benefits from buying direct: will Annual Pass discounts be sought after now you have to reserve your park entry, will they be able to do Moonlight Magic again?
We've discussed resale rather than direct, but the fact remains, even if the benefits aren't around immediately; those 100 points are going to ensure membership for 40 years, so for sure, the benefits will return. Adding on will forever be the jewel of resale.

 

[bookwormde]

8/7 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 230% of average

 

[Naglejen]

I have a contract in ROFR right now through them. Absolutely agree! Prompt, courteous, recapped all important information, and helped me seal the deal. 10/10, would work with again.

I’m just catching up on this thread, but just had to pop on and say I have also had a great experience with them - their broker is incredibly responsive, and ensures everything is clear. It is much appreciated from this first time buyer!

 

[bookwormde]

8/8 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 10% of average

 

[bookwormde]

8/9 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 180% of average

For the week of 8/3 to 8/9 newly posted resale contracts at about 190% of average

 

[bookwormde]

8/10 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 220% of average

 

[gisele2]

8/10 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 220% of average

Thank you for giving us this information day after day.

 

[bookwormde]

8/11 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 120% of average

 

[bookwormde]

8/12 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 260% of average

 

[bookwormde]

compared to last week

DVC resale 275 down 38

Fidelity 133 down 15

TSS 120 down 18

 

[chunks]

compared to last week

DVC resale 275 down 38

Fidelity 133 down 15

TSS 120 down 18

Ugh not good news...need those #s to skyrocket.

 

[sethschroeder]

Ugh not good news...need those #s to skyrocket.

Its not really needed when the number of listings are still over the average and compound that with Disney not really taking any ROFR.

Long term the pricing will continue to slowly decrease with small spikes of extra low prices or new contracts being listed over true market value.