Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?

[Deploraboo]

Whatever prices were back in late 2016/early 2017, that’s where they should be right now. See S&P.

 

[ELMC]

Whatever prices were back in late 2016/early 2017, that’s where they should be right now. See S&P.

I don't think the correlation is that strong. I think if the economy goes south, regardless of by what percentage, that will impact the supply/demand forces of the DVC market. Said another way, a tough economy will lead to more people being forced to sell and likely fewer people looking to buy. It doesn't matter what the % drop in the DOW or S&P 500 happens to be. From that point on, the prices will do what they do as a function of supply and demand (adding in the lack of fear of ROFR that typically adds a few dollars to every contract).

 

[Brian Noble]

Agreed. I heard a pretty compelling argument on a podcast yesterday that luxury items are likely to take a bigger hit than "average", while staples will take a lower hit. DVC is clearly in the former camp...at least for most of us!

 

[CLE2WDW]

Whatever prices were back in late 2016/early 2017, that’s where they should be right now. See S&P.

Not really... 2016-17 didn’t include a potential liquidity crisis. The key to any market is that a buyer and seller need to align and right now the buying market might be stifled. If I was one of these resale companies I would make that abundantly clear to sellers right now. If an offer comes in at 20-30% below asking consider ‘what’s my need for liquidity right now?’ If it’s dire you may be forced to accept the offer. If you can stomach the next 12-18 months of paying dues and wait to sell it when the DVC market has rebounded then do that. This is where the resale market really needs to earn their 8.5% commission.

 

[DVC Doctor]

Hard to say....it is so early in the virus response and in a few months will tell how things go.

It could be a minor drop (few dollars) or a major drop, but if this drags on a long time and the economy suffers, then buying a timeshare will be the last thing people will want to buy, sellers will flood the market, and prices will go low.

I can only state that VB and HHI will be the hardest hit.

 

[minthorne]

i'd love some Poly points for $70pp

 

[CLE2WDW]

i'd love some Poly points for $70pp

I mean it never hurts to put in an aggressive offer....

 

[Matty B13]

i'd love some Poly points for $70pp

I think it might reach about $100/pp, because a lot of people who bought just a few years ago with a loan might not be able to cover the payments, and there are a lot of contracts out there right now already.

 

[CLE2WDW]

I think it might reach about $100/pp, because a lot of people who bought just a few years ago with a loan might not be able to cover the payments, and there are a lot of contracts out there right now already.

That’s an excellent point. It’s not like there’s such a thing as a “short sale” when selling a DVC contract.
That being said I am curious to see what POLY and BLT contracts go for over the next few months...

 

[DougEMG]

I expect prices to fall significantly, easily 25-50% in the coming months. If my husband or I had lost our jobs, DVC would be one of the first things we would consider selling. Yes we have savings, but I would probably STILL try to sell it if I saw us going through our savings. As it is we have not lost our jobs, but I want to be conservative in our spending and not make any luxury purchases right now.

I think prices will drop between 10-20% in the coming months. I doubt anything close to 50% will happen.

 

[wallawallakids]

DH and I were really wanting to buy into the new DL DVC at the DLH when it opened. I think that will be put on pause now. We will be watching GCV like a hawk, but I am not overly optimistic it will drop that much. I do think the WDW properties as well as Aulani/ HH/ and VB will drop a lot more.

 

[Brianstl]

I don't think the correlation is that strong. I think if the economy goes south, regardless of by what percentage, that will impact the supply/demand forces of the DVC market. Said another way, a tough economy will lead to more people being forced to sell and likely fewer people looking to buy. It doesn't matter what the % drop in the DOW or S&P 500 happens to be. From that point on, the prices will do what they do as a function of supply and demand (adding in the lack of fear of ROFR that typically adds a few dollars to every contract).

I think prices will drop between 10-20% in the coming months. I doubt anything close to 50% will happen.

I don't think a 40-50% drop is unrealistic. When the job numbers and GDP numbers come out, many of those who haven't felt the financial bite already will start to freak out.

 

[Brianstl]

DH and I were really wanting to buy into the new DL DVC at the DLH when it opened. I think that will be put on pause now. We will be watching GCV like a hawk, but I am not overly optimistic it will drop that much. I do think the WDW properties as well as Aulani/ HH/ and VB will drop a lot more.

GCV has such limited supply, that it should weather this much better than other resorts.

 

[RanDIZ]

I think it might reach about $100/pp, because a lot of people who bought just a few years ago with a loan might not be able to cover the payments, and there are a lot of contracts out there right now already.

I’d love to scoop a POLY 100pt contract up for $100/pt. But the savings isn’t that much when spread out. The avg POLY for past few months has been $148/pt. So if the avg contract is held for 10yrs, the savings is $480/yr or $40/mth over 10yrs. I would pay $148 now just because I know I’ll be saving regardless when compared to cash prices. I’m just holding off now due to uncertainty and the potential that I need that cash for emergencies.

 

[Matty B13]

I’d love to scoop a POLY 100pt contract up for $100/pt. But the savings isn’t that much when spread out. The avg POLY for past few months has been $148/pt. So if the avg contract is held for 10yrs, the savings is $480/yr or $40/mth over 10yrs. I would pay $148 now just because I know I’ll be saving regardless when compared to cash prices. I’m just holding off now due to uncertainty and the potential that I need that cash for emergencies.

I think Poly contracts were heading down already before this mess, and I think it might actually accelerate moving forward.

 

[thanxfornoticin]

GCV has such limited supply, that it should weather this much better than other resorts.

I would agree with that. Beautiful resort, limited capacity, popular location.

It will also be interesting to see if (when?) Disney puts a hold on planned construction for new DVC locations, like the Disneyland and Reflections at WDW. That has to be coming if the current situation lasts much longer.

 

[rg35]

Too soon to tell, and it depends on how long the economy is basically "on pause".

While service industry workers like waiters, hotel employees, etc., have lost their jobs, a lot of other sectors haven't been hit yet. Once things catch up and there is no revenue coming in and businesses run into cash flow problems, we're going to see a lot of people out of work.

I imagine people who are financing are going to need to dump their DVC ownership, you'll have another group dumping once MFs come due at the end of the year, and so forth.

The IMF says right now this recession could be worse than 2009. A lot of it depends on Americans taking quarantining and social separation seriously. Right now, a lot of people aren't. But the more lax we are now, the longer this is going to go on. Give up a few weekends at the park now so that we don't have to extend this thing for 4 or 6 months.

 

[FireflyTrance]

I agree that I doubt we will see a 50% drop at GCV. If I saw a 25-30% drop there I would consider buying more myself.

 

[wishicouldgomoreofte]

One of the big brokers who does instant sale has lowered their prices really really low on their instant offers now.

What is "instant sale"? How is that possible? It still has to go through ROFR and title search and all the legal steps doesn't it?

 

[CarolMN]

What is "instant sale"? How is that possible? It still has to go through ROFR and title search and all the legal steps doesn't it?

The listing has a "Buy Now" button with a set price that will result in immediate acceptance. Yes, the contract still goes through all the usual steps. Disney doesn't seem to be buying anything back right now, so apparently, some think there are some good deals to be had.