Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?

[E2ME2]

Sort of. You can see some resorts dipped over the summer, when many of us bought. I bought VGF! But some never budged, like SSR. And some went crazy, like AKL.

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-november-2020/

Actually, SSR "budged" a little in 2020. I added on 225 Points for $20K ($88.89/Point). Fortuitous timing

 

[RoseGold]

Actually, SSR "budged" a little in 2020. I added on 225 Points for $20K ($88.89/Point). Fortuitous timing

There are always outlier contracts, I never paid anything close to these averages, even well before Covid.

I'm talking about averages. That brokers moves a lot of contracts, and their averages might be a little high for the small contracts, and maybe a little quirky in the smaller resorts, but they aren't unreasonable as a show of market value over time.

 

[E2ME2]

There are always outlier contracts, I never paid anything close to these averages, even well before Covid.

I'm talking about averages. That brokers moves a lot of contracts, and their averages might be a little high for the small contracts, and maybe a little quirky in the smaller resorts, but they aren't unreasonable as a show of market value over time.

OK - Gotcha
Yeah, Ive always thought the prices from that particular source were a bit on the high side, and I understand its based on their averages.
Wouldn't it be nice to have one master compilation of data from all the brokers ?

 

[Lorana]

OK - Gotcha
Yeah, Ive always thought the prices from that particular source were a bit on the high side, and I understand its based on their averages.
Wouldn't it be nice to have one master compilation of data from all the brokers ?

YES! Including what actual selling prices are vs asking. And ranges of contracts that passed RofR!

Actually, SSR "budged" a little in 2020. I added on 225 Points for $20K ($88.89/Point). Fortuitous timing

My deal wasn’t as good but I was pleased to get a mostly loaded 100-point SSR for $94 and then a 50-point for $104 with seller paying dues!

 

[kevtlas]

Actually, SSR "budged" a little in 2020. I added on 225 Points for $20K ($88.89/Point). Fortuitous timing

My deal wasn’t as good but I was pleased to get a mostly loaded 100-point SSR for $94 and then a 50-point for $104 with seller paying dues!

I caught a lucky deal this summer as well, and was able to snag a fully loaded 300 point SSR for $85, but I paid 2020 dues. Still, after renting the banked points, the net per point was less than what I paid for SSR in 2010!

 

[Mattknite]

I got 120 points for $101.50. Not the best deal but it was what I wanted.

 

[bookwormde]

Since I completed the 6 months of tracking indicated in my OP prices have been very stable so there seamed to be little value ongoing tracking..

I have recently seen 2 factors that might be pre indicators of some changes, first is that the number of active resale contracts has grown significantly, second is that I am seeing owner point rental prices drop in both the short and medium term and the quantity of significantly discounted reservation from the rental firms grow

I am thinking of beginning to track again 1/1/21 though probably not publishing results unless there are significant trends

Anyone else have any thoughts on the value of this

 

[mamaofsix]

Since I completed the 6 months of tracking indicated in my OP prices have been very stable so there seamed to be little value ongoing tracking..

I have recently seen 2 factors that might be pre indicators of some changes, first is that the number of active resale contracts has grown significantly, second is that I am seeing owner point rental prices drop in both the short and medium term and the quantity of significantly discounted reservation from the rental firms grow

I am thinking of beginning to track again 1/1/21 though probably not publishing results unless there are significant trends

Anyone else have any thoughts on the value of this

Your tracking would be very much appreciated. I think you are right that change is in the air...

 

[Ginamarie]

Since I completed the 6 months of tracking indicated in my OP prices have been very stable so there seamed to be little value ongoing tracking..

I have recently seen 2 factors that might be pre indicators of some changes, first is that the number of active resale contracts has grown significantly, second is that I am seeing owner point rental prices drop in both the short and medium term and the quantity of significantly discounted reservation from the rental firms grow

I am thinking of beginning to track again 1/1/21 though probably not publishing results unless there are significant trends

Anyone else have any thoughts on the value of this

I don't know if this is an outlier since it's the end of the year and dues are up, but I've noticed a bunch of contracts come up lately that are priced lower than what I've seen (BRV& OKW under $100/pp- even a couple of SS priced under $100). Seeing as buyers often offer less than the asking price, these prices seem like they're likely to get scooped by ROFR, but I also recently saw a couple sneak through. I'm curious if this is just sellers looking to get out of these contract before paying the dues or if the prices are actually taking a little dip after this fall.

We're almost reaching the point now where the 2042 contracts will only have 20 years left on them (anothing stripped is already down to the 20 year mark), and I also think that's a psychological marker for people where they start looking more closely at the price of those contracts overall.

 

[Sandisw]

I don't know if this is an outlier since it's the end of the year and dues are up, but I've noticed a bunch of contracts come up lately that are priced lower than what I've seen (BRV& OKW under $100/pp- even a couple of SS priced under $100). Seeing as buyers often offer less than the asking price, these prices seem like they're likely to get scooped by ROFR, but I also recently saw a couple sneak through. I'm curious if this is just sellers looking to get out of these contract before paying the dues or if the prices are actually taking a little dip after this fall.

We're almost reaching the point now where the 2042 contracts will only have 20 years left on them (anothing stripped is already down to the 20 year mark), and I also think that's a psychological marker for people where they start looking more closely at the price of those contracts overall.

It may be that sellers are watching what is going to be taken via ROFR and are okay with pricing low,

From what I understand, if they take it, the seller gets the check pretty quickly which may be an intentional strategy,

I payed $73/point for my SSR points only 3 years ago, so even selling in the $90/s would give me a profit!

 

[heynowirv]

It may be that sellers are watching what is going to be taken via ROFR and are okay with pricing low,

From what I understand, if they take it, the seller gets the check pretty quickly which may be an intentional strategy,

I payed $73/point for my SSR points only 3 years ago, so even selling in the $90/s would give me a profit!

Nice.We paid 68. in 2009 for our first contract .A 190 point OKW. That's on e we'll keep till it expires .2 Reasons. We love OKW and It grandfathered us into all the perks available.
On another note we bought a 150 point BWV contract in July for 110. PP which had 95 2020 points and I thought we did well .

 

[linzjane88]

I know for me, I was all for team add on when the pandemic started. I was certain I would have another contract by the end of this year. When the prices didn't dip and when my November WDW trip failed to infuse me with pixie dust I kinda decided I am content with what I have points wise. Usually every trip I am left wanting MORE and planning 2 more trip ahead but Covid travel is more work than it's worth IMO. We switched over into the mindset of using the vacation budget towards the house and doing updates to make home more awesome. I would like to enjoy my home bathroom as much as the newly remodeled SSR baths!

If prices somehow dropped a massive amount like they did after the recession I might bite but honestly I don't even look at the listings for fun anymore.

Since my lightbulb moments are rarely ever unique (even if I think they are when I come up with them) I wonder if there's other potential buyers backing off the purchase idea also?

 

[Brianstl]

I wonder what the impact the layoffs at Disney are having on the increase in resale contracts. Cast members could buy DVC direct at a discount and from what I understand the DVC employees, at least, took advantage of it. I don’t know how many other Disney employees bought contracts, but with a large number of employees now without jobs at DVC and maintenance fees due it could explain some of the jump in contracts.

 

[emilymad]

I know for me, I was all for team add on when the pandemic started. I was certain I would have another contract by the end of this year. When the prices didn't dip and when my November WDW trip failed to infuse me with pixie dust I kinda decided I am content with what I have points wise. Usually every trip I am left wanting MORE and planning 2 more trip ahead but Covid travel is more work than it's worth IMO. We switched over into the mindset of using the vacation budget towards the house and doing updates to make home more awesome. I would like to enjoy my home bathroom as much as the newly remodeled SSR baths!

If prices somehow dropped a massive amount like they did after the recession I might bite but honestly I don't even look at the listings for fun anymore.

Since my lightbulb moments are rarely ever unique (even if I think they are when I come up with them) I wonder if there's other potential buyers backing off the purchase idea also?

I could have written almost the exact same thing. I could see adding on in the future but it is more on the 5 year plan now. We are doing a long weekend at RIV in February so it will interesting to see how we feel after that trip. It is our first resort only stay in 9+ years of ownership as park tickets just seem too expensive for what Disney is offering. By the time travel starts up again and we travel to all of the other places we want to go I am not sure Disney will hold the same appeal.

And in the meantime the shower in our master bathroom needs to be replaced so the DVC budget it going there instead.

 

[Sandisw]

I wonder what the impact the layoffs at Disney are having on the increase in resale contracts. Cast members could buy DVC direct at a discount and from what I understand the DVC employees, at least, took advantage of it. I don’t know how many other Disney employees bought contracts, but with a large number of employees now without jobs at DVC and maintenance fees due it could explain some of the jump in contracts.

The past few years, the CM discount for DVC was not anything major. We got $1000 extra when buying the 175 points for RIV using my DDs discount... It was a little more that if we wanted Aulani.

Of course, we were the ones who bought so won’t be selling! And, glad we did because she ended up having to leave th for a job at another company because with no idea when Broadway will open again, her furlough was going to last a lot longer than originally planned.

 

[Yankee626]

I Cant understand how VGC are selling resale for $230 a point . Hasn't Disneyland been closed for a Year ? Who would pay such a ridiculous price for something just about worthless right now ?

 

[HappyThoughtsTees]

I Cant understand how VGC are selling resale for $230 a point . Hasn't Disneyland been closed for a Year ? Who would pay such a ridiculous price for something just about worthless right now ?

The contracts might be listed for that price, but I'm not sure many are paying list price unless it's a small (50pt) contract. For example our 160 VGC was listed around $215 or so, and we paid $202 back in October. Some of these VGC listings with inflated price tags have been sitting around longer than usual. When I first started looking at resale, VGC was snapped up so quickly it was hard to even make offers. Now it seems they are really reaching with these prices and the offers aren't rolling in so quickly!

 

[Sandisw]

I Cant understand how VGC are selling resale for $230 a point . Hasn't Disneyland been closed for a Year ? Who would pay such a ridiculous price for something just about worthless right now ?

DVC is about long term and not short term so those that find a. GC contract that fits there needs...since resale is the only option...will buy.

It won’t be closed forever, and those points can be used at 7 months so it can make sense for certain people.

 

[BruinEd03]

I Cant understand how VGC are selling resale for $230 a point . Hasn't Disneyland been closed for a Year ? Who would pay such a ridiculous price for something just about worthless right now ?

Because, Disneyland will open up. I mean, most people have to book VGC trips 7 to 11 months in advance. Do you believe Disneyland will remain closed for all of next year? Keep in mind, being closed for 1 year does not affect the current buyer. When it will re-open is the key point.

 

[Cfabar1]

I agree, as someone who has thought about buying in HHI that the 20 year marker is HUGE, when you see that value proposition, especially someone who may be vacationing for another 30-40 years (at least). Aulani, HHI, and Vero Beach are all EXACTLY the type of resort that we would want to be, with the possible exception of the fact we can't bring our dog, and he is without a doubt the most spoiled member of the household.

But, when I see the cost, even resale, and knowing I only have 20 years to use it, it just makes the math much harder to justify, especially when, in our case, the resorts we are looking at, aren't really that different from a Hyatt, Westin, etc. We only live 2 hours away from WDW, so an extended stay there doesn't make too much sense for us.

So in short, we really want to be DVC members, but I am not sure it is the best thing for us. Which makes me sad, despite it making sense.