I don't think there's a one size fits all. The logical response (and I am by no means saying this is what I think will happen, because logic really isn't ruling the day right now) would be a local response, by metro area for urban parts of the country and by county or multi-county region in more rural places, based on the local curve and medical capacity. We really shouldn't have statewide lockdowns covering places where hospitals are a record-low occupancy, as we have in parts of my state and probably many others. We also shouldn't be relaxing restrictions in areas where the medical system is already straining, even if the curve starts to decline, until some of the existing patient load either recovers or dies.
In my state, I don't think the current level of restrictions will actually survive the month. There are already small businesses saying they'll ignore the order and local communities declining to use their police departments to enforce it. The latest order went too far in many people's minds, crossing over from reasonable steps to keep everyone safe to draconian (to borrow a word from another thread) and arbitrary. Either is it going to be revised, and there are two major petitions being circulated by trade/lobbying organizations to call for changes, or it will simply collapse under the limits of enforcement capability.
Where do you get the idea we are on a downswing?
The data shows many states are. The number of new cases is growing nationwide, but if you look at state-by-state data some are past peak. Michigan is one of them - new daily cases have been falling for days now.
Curve is beginning to flatten in SOME areas.
The peak dates are yet to come in many states.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
That model is... not well connected to reality. Or rather, it is very accurate in hindsight but not so much as a predictive tool. The actual case and death stats have consistently come in under the projections by a significant margin, and the zero-death predictions defy all medical thought. Per that site, my state will not have any more COVID19 deaths after this month.