Thanks all! I don't think we would use the water parks or pleasure island in the next 12 months. We have a 1 yo and a 3.5 yo so pleasure island isn't a big option (never been). We have some free passes from the old days for the water parks so if we do decide to hit them in May we can, October might be too cold.
I just wanted to make sure we could upgrade for the renewal price when they came due since the renewal is less. I had no intention of doing the "last few months upgrade at a reduced rate" trick, in fact I've never heard of it until now.
I appreciate all the help, you guys are the best resource on disney!