What is Disney long term obligated to operate?

[Cfabar1]

What are Disney's long term obligations.

PC - 2 Ships Year Round with 3 ships in peak season?
PE - 1 Ship year round at 4,000 and one smaller ship seasonally?

I"m just trying to figure out where all the ships are going to go - especially with doubling the fleet. I wonder if the Magic and Wonder will stick around - and if they will keep them for some more unique itineraries/locations.

 

[dcassetta]

What are Disney's long term obligations.

PC - 2 Ships Year Round with 3 ships in peak season?
PE - 1 Ship year round at 4,000 and one smaller ship seasonally?

I"m just trying to figure out where all the ships are going to go - especially with doubling the fleet. I wonder if the Magic and Wonder will stick around - and if they will keep them for some more unique itineraries/locations.

Port Canaveral - https://www.portcanaveral.com/About...CANAVERAL, Fla.,Cruise Line's three new ships.

Essentials - 216 port calls per year and 2 of the Wish class ships have to home port from Canaveral for their first 5 years. So, both the Wish and Treasure will have to sail from PC until the new ships arrives.

Port Everglades - https://www.porteverglades.net/arti...with Disney includes,to be announced, in 2025.

Essentials - At least one ship year-round, currently the Dream, but will be the Magic when the Dream goes to Europe.

 

[auntlynne]

Port Canaveral - https://www.portcanaveral.com/About/Recent-News/Canaveral-Port-Authority-and-Disney-Cruise-Line-Re#:~:text=PORT CANAVERAL, Fla.,Cruise Line's three new ships.

Essentials - 216 port calls per year and 2 of the Wish class ships have to home port from Canaveral for their first 5 years. So, both the Wish and Treasure will have to sail from PC until the new ships arrives.

Port Everglades - https://www.porteverglades.net/articles/post/port-everglades-welcomes-new-lines-new-ships-and-a-new-terminal/#:~:text=The partnership with Disney includes,to be announced, in 2025.

Essentials - At least one ship year-round, currently the Dream, but will be the Magic when the Dream goes to Europe.

The article does not include more info about PE, being the annual required number of passengers. That can dictate ship size and frequency of departures.

 

[Husker Mike]

Disney also has commitments to the Bahamas... I believe a 30% increase in stops in Nassau from 2018. (Of course, Disney's investments in Lighthouse Point will serve as an internal obligation on DCL's to send passengers to their private islands.)

I believe that Disney's agreement with Port Everglades that one ship will be homeported there year round. So I believe this says the Dream will stay there, with the Fantasy now being the ship summering in Europe moving forward.

 

[LAS2AMS]

Port Everglades maximum incentives requires a year-round ship plus a second seasonal ship beginning in 2025. There's also a minimum passenger count -- 400K the first year (which we're in the middle of) and totaling 10.6M over 15 years. As mentioned, DCL also committed to increasing calls and passenger counts in the Bahamas, as part of its agreement to develop the new island. DCL also has commitments to Vancouver, San Diego, Australia/NZ (but just two years it looks like) and recently expanded those to Galveston.

Most likely two of the three Triton ships will be based at PC and the third FLL. Basically, most of the growth will be Florida & the Bahamas. Plenty of other scenarios with the other ships, but we have a pretty good idea of where DCL will be sailing. We might see a few more weeks in SD, a few sailings from NYC, etc. but if you're wondering where the expansion will be, again it's Florida & the Bahamas. Lighthouse Point wasn't built to accommodate ships from Carnival .

 

[JM_97]

Port Everglades maximum incentives requires a year-round ship plus a second seasonal ship beginning in 2025. There's also a minimum passenger count -- 400K the first year (which we're in the middle of) and totaling 10.6M over 15 years. As mentioned, DCL also committed to increasing calls and passenger counts in the Bahamas, as part of its agreement to develop the new island. DCL also has commitments to Vancouver, San Diego, Australia/NZ (but just two years it looks like) and recently expanded those to Galveston.

Most likely two of the three Triton ships will be based at PC and the third FLL. Basically, most of the growth will be Florida & the Bahamas. Plenty of other scenarios with the other ships, but we have a pretty good idea of where DCL will be sailing. We might see a few more weeks in SD, a few sailings from NYC, etc. but if you're wondering where the expansion will be, again it's Florida & the Bahamas. Lighthouse Point wasn't built to accommodate ships from Carnival .

I think eventually the Wish will move down to FLL full time and then the Dream kind of hops around like the Magic. Fantasy will probably be the new Europe ship for the summer and then in PC the rest of the year.

No reason to believe the Wonder will move back to the Atlantic. Alaska makes a lot of money.

Treasure and Destiny will be in PC all the time.

 

[LAS2AMS]

I think eventually the Wish will move down to FLL full time and then the Dream kind of hops around like the Magic. Fantasy will probably be the new Europe ship for the summer and then in PC the rest of the year.

No reason to believe the Wonder will move back to the Atlantic. Alaska makes a lot of money.

Treasure and Destiny will be in PC all the time.

I don't think Alaska is as strong as you think it is. There's about a six week stretch (from mid-June through July) were fares are high; the rest of the season, they're often the lowest priced 7-night cruises. Keep in mind DCL's pricing is inclusive of taxes & fees, and the taxes & fees on those 7-night cruises are about twice that vs. the Caribbean. The number is definitely not insignificant.

That said, there have been crew rumors that Dream is headed to Alaska. Obviously we have no idea that if that happened, if the Dream would supplement or replace the Wonder. My guess is replace -- the one-way cruises between San Diego and Vancouver are historically unpopular (that's true of any cruise line between California and Seattle/Vancouver) thus many of the rooms are sold at extreme discounts to select employee groups (and obviously most Disney corporate positions are based a short drive away in Los Angeles). Given that length of time to reposition the Wonder to Australia, the fact that those cruises are sold for (relatively) cheap, and that the Australia/New Zealand cruises are generally the lowest priced, I suspect the service will end sooner than later. And the Dream will do Fort Lauderdale, San Diego, Panama Canal and Vancouver.

e.g.
May through mid-September - Alaska from Vancouver
mid-September through October - Mexico from San Diego
first half of November - Panama Canal from San Diego to Fort Lauderdale
second half of November through February - Bahamas/Caribbean from Fort Lauderdale
first half of March - Panama Canal from Fort Lauderdale to San Diego
second half of March through April - Mexico from San Diego

 

[JM_97]

I don't think Alaska is as strong as you think it is. There's about a six week stretch (from mid-June through July) were fares are high; the rest of the season, they're often the lowest priced 7-night cruises. Keep in mind DCL's pricing is inclusive of taxes & fees, and the taxes & fees on those 7-night cruises are about twice that vs. the Caribbean. The number is definitely not insignificant.

That said, there have been crew rumors that Dream is headed to Alaska. Obviously we have no idea that if that happened, if the Dream would supplement or replace the Wonder. My guess is replace -- the one-way cruises between San Diego and Vancouver are historically unpopular (that's true of any cruise line between California and Seattle/Vancouver) thus many of the rooms are sold at extreme discounts to select employee groups (and obviously most Disney corporate positions are based a short drive away in Los Angeles). Given that length of time to reposition the Wonder to Australia, the fact that those cruises are sold for (relatively) cheap, and that the Australia/New Zealand cruises are generally the lowest priced, I suspect the service will end sooner than later. And the Dream will do Fort Lauderdale, San Diego, Panama Canal and Vancouver.

e.g.
May through mid-September - Alaska from Vancouver
mid-September through October - Mexico from San Diego
first half of November - Panama Canal from San Diego to Fort Lauderdale
second half of November through February - Bahamas/Caribbean from Fort Lauderdale
first half of March - Panama Canal from Fort Lauderdale to San Diego
second half of March through April - Mexico from San Diego

Interesting. I haven't looked at the Alaska pricing in a while so I was unaware of that. If the Dream does head to Alaska, I bet the Wonder would switch places with the Dream. They won't put two ships in Alaska and the fact that Disney hasn't done Mexico cruises in the summer in forever makes me think they don't see the value in those sailings in those months. Plus I know there are some logistical and legal issues with doing round trip sailings to Hawaii from SD. Never say never, but unless I'm missing something it wouldn't make sense.

If all that happens I would love it if the Wonder came back to Florida. She is my favorite ship and it would be so much easier to sail on her if she's in the Bahamas and Caribbean again!

 

[Flossbolna]

I think the most interesting question is: do all the commitments in place require DCL to operate 7 ships? I know people discuss how long the Magic and Wonder will still be sailing for DCL. If they are needed, we know they will stick around.

 

[Cfabar1]

I think the most interesting question is: do all the commitments in place require DCL to operate 7 ships? I know people discuss how long the Magic and Wonder will still be sailing for DCL. If they are needed, we know they will stick around.

The Magic is not much younger than the Grandeur of the Seas (RCL) or the Elation or Sunrise (Carnival). That said, there are older ships that can be found in other fleets.

Does Disney see value in continuing to operate those ships - my hunch is yes for now. Consider how much smaller DCL is as a fleet than Carnival and RCL - and also consider how they have been openly discussing how they are actively expanding/growing the fleet. Clearly DCL is thought of being a driver of future growth for the company.

The price points on the Disney Magic must be incredible for the company. We recently booked a FL sailing that was not much cheaper for the same dates as the Wish sailing out of PC. For that to be done with a ship as old as the Magic is incredible. Yes, I know it is smaller, but people don’t seem to mind.

Future possibilities could include parking one or two of them in Asia and/or Australia/NZ if they felt the profitability could be sustained.

As long as they can keep the ships in good repair, I bet they hold onto them. Another thing I am extremely skeptical of is Disney selling the ships to another cruise line. They are known for being fiercely protective of their brand, and I think would be nervous about former Disney ships floating around. My gut tells me they will be scrapped when they finally stop sailing. That’s another reason I think they may stick around longer - it limits the profitability of what to do with them.

 

[LAS2AMS]

The Magic is not much younger than the Grandeur of the Seas (RCL) or the Elation or Sunrise (Carnival). That said, there are older ships that can be found in other fleets.

Does Disney see value in continuing to operate those ships - my hunch is yes for now. Consider how much smaller DCL is as a fleet than Carnival and RCL - and also consider how they have been openly discussing how they are actively expanding/growing the fleet. Clearly DCL is thought of being a driver of future growth for the company.

The price points on the Disney Magic must be incredible for the company. We recently booked a FL sailing that was not much cheaper for the same dates as the Wish sailing out of PC. For that to be done with a ship as old as the Magic is incredible. Yes, I know it is smaller, but people don’t seem to mind.

Future possibilities could include parking one or two of them in Asia and/or Australia/NZ if they felt the profitability could be sustained.

As long as they can keep the ships in good repair, I bet they hold onto them. Another thing I am extremely skeptical of is Disney selling the ships to another cruise line. They are known for being fiercely protective of their brand, and I think would be nervous about former Disney ships floating around. My gut tells me they will be scrapped when they finally stop sailing. That’s another reason I think they may stick around longer - it limits the profitability of what to do with them.

It isn't age that will end the service life of the Magic and Wonder but rather economics. They're small ships, which means fewer passengers (economics of scale is a thing in this industry) and few opportunities for upsells. There's also few balconies, which are obviously the most desired accommodation.

Soaring costs and lack of upsell opportunities will limit the service life of the Magic and Wonder. If ship capacity exceeds demand at desired pricing, Disney may simply choose to scrap the two ships, rather than lowering prices elsewhere. I always read "by my cruise was 100% full!" Yes, but you don't know the rates people are paying. As I mentioned earlier, Disney offers deeply discounted DCL rates to select employee groups (usually corporate, not cast members). These are wildly popular and a major perk for employees.

 

[randumb0]

Please start sending a ship regularly to the ABC islands

 

[dcassetta]

Please start sending a ship regularly to the ABC islands

Especially B!

 

[DynamicDisneyDuo]

Especially B!

I C what you did there.

 

[OpieDoodle]

It isn't age that will end the service life of the Magic and Wonder but rather economics. They're small ships, which means fewer passengers (economics of scale is a thing in this industry) and few opportunities for upsells. There's also few balconies, which are obviously the most desired accommodation.

Soaring costs and lack of upsell opportunities will limit the service life of the Magic and Wonder. If ship capacity exceeds demand at desired pricing, Disney may simply choose to scrap the two ships, rather than lowering prices elsewhere. I always read "by my cruise was 100% full!" Yes, but you don't know the rates people are paying. As I mentioned earlier, Disney offers deeply discounted DCL rates to select employee groups (usually corporate, not cast members). These are wildly popular and a major perk for employees.

While yes the smaller ships mean fewer passengers but its also lower costs. Lower over head costs, less employees, less resources etc. Also the larger ships, aside from peak seasons when kids are out of school, are rarely sold out. Whereas the Magic more often is. I'd honestly be shocked if on average the profit margin was significantly different either direction. If there was a significant profit margin difference changes would have already been made.

I am sure in time the Magic and wonder will retire but I have a feeling it'll be more a decision based on cost effectiveness to continue to refurbish them once all of the new ships get online. If DCL popularity continues to grow I have no doubts they'll keep them going as long as possible. But if when all the new ships come online and there isn't an increase in cruisers then I bet we will see them making some decisions.

 

[LAS2AMS]

While yes the smaller ships mean fewer passengers but its also lower costs. Lower over head costs, less employees, less resources etc. Also the larger ships, aside from peak seasons when kids are out of school, are rarely sold out. Whereas the Magic more often is. I'd honestly be shocked if on average the profit margin was significantly different either direction. If there was a significant profit margin difference changes would have already been made.

I am sure in time the Magic and wonder will retire but I have a feeling it'll be more a decision based on cost effectiveness to continue to refurbish them once all of the new ships get online. If DCL popularity continues to grow I have no doubts they'll keep them going as long as possible. But if when all the new ships come online and there isn't an increase in cruisers then I bet we will see them making some decisions.

Bigger ships have significantly lower cost per passenger. There’s a reason why the industry is no longer building ships the size of the Magic / Wonder and why most of the remaining ships in this size class were retired during the pandemic.

The Magic / Wonder have generously sized staterooms, few balconies, fewer upsell establishments, etc. There’s no doubt the profit margin on these ships is significantly less than the Dream / Fantasy (let alone Wish). But that doesn’t mean they’re unprofitable.

 

[Snowwhyt]

Bigger ships have significantly lower cost per passenger. There’s a reason why the industry is no longer building ships the size of the Magic / Wonder and why most of the remaining ships in this size class were retired during the pandemic.

The Magic / Wonder have generously sized staterooms, few balconies, fewer upsell establishments, etc. There’s no doubt the profit margin on these ships is significantly less than the Dream / Fantasy (let alone Wish). But that doesn’t mean they’re unprofitable.

PIF can be helpful on the P&L sheet though.