What do you think will really happen in 2042 or 2054?

[ransom]

My prediction is that Disney will keep building DVC properties all over the world for as long as it's profitable.

And as the original WDW DVC properties come to the end of their contracts, they'll either be demolished and rebuilt or simply rehabbed, as appropriate, so that they become new and can be sold again. The contract ends, and that's all there is to it.

Remember that WDW itself has only been around for 36 years at this point. 35 years from now, it may be time to tear down the Contemporary tower, the Polynesian, and other buildings so that something new can be built. Times change, tastes change, and new management teams come in all the time.

The same may be said of the DVC buildings, and the resorts to which they're attached. If it's more profitable to demolish and build new, they'll do that, a la the garden wing at the Contemporary. Or they'll just do major rehab. Either way, our contracts will have ended, so it won't have anything to do with us, directly.

So my prediction is that about 35 years from now, if the DIS is still around, people will be on here buzzing about what's going up where OKW used to be, and how reasonable the $300/pt buy-in and $15/pt maintenance are.

 

[Maistre Gracey]

I think it's highly likely the world will come to an end.

MG

 

[gkrykewy]

2050 is the end of all fish life on this planet.

Don't tell the fish - it's better that they not know.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

Yes BWV and BCV are very desirable locations. These buildings will not be leveled. The heavy incentives will probably be for all DVC owners, so not to flood the market with all resorts needing be sold at the same time. Supply and demand, once supply is more than demand, the price per point drops. Why would Disney want to take the chance of rehabbing resorts, and haveing to sell all those that expire in 2042 at once, creating competition for the more desirable resorts, aka: BWV and BCV.

 

[tjkraz]

It might not be a great deal that they offer us, but I'm sure there'll be an offer.

If DVC was interested in short term contracts they would have an alternative NOW for all of the 66-year olds out there.

Disney wants to lock people in long-term and the problem with offering 15-20 year contracts is that you can't limit sales to just people in their 60s. If someone in their 20s or 30s inherits a contract in 2040 and is then able to renew it for a short term at a good price, that defeats the purpose of selling long-term ownership to young families.

 

[Maistre Gracey]

I think it's highly likely the world will come to an end.

MG

Gee, if I only read the thread before posting I would have seen this has already been done!

MG

 

[crisi]

Yes BWV and BCV are very desirable locations. These buildings will not be leveled. The heavy incentives will probably be for all DVC owners, so not to flood the market with all resorts needing be sold at the same time. Supply and demand, once supply is more than demand, the price per point drops. Why would Disney want to take the chance of rehabbing resorts, and haveing to sell all those that expire in 2042 at once, creating competition for the more desirable resorts, aka: BWV and BCV.

I suspect 50 year old buildings have a good chance of being leveled - and replaced with something new. BW wasn't built to great construction standards and who can say what Disney will want or need to put there that far in the future - I don't get the feeling the Y&BC was built to last 100 years either. Maybe finally build the Ventian resort Disney wanted to put on Bay Lake - or the Asian resort.

 

[tjkraz]

I suspect 50 year old buildings have a good chance of being leveled - and replaced with something new. BW wasn't built to great construction standards and who can say what Disney will want or need to put there that far in the future - I don't get the feeling the Y&BC was built to last 100 years either.

I agree. Let's not confuse the value of the land (location) with the value of the structures that sit on the land.

I can't believe that sales would have been equally brisk if DVC had simply refurbished the Disney Institute resort rooms rather than razing them and building SSR.

The same holds true for the Contemporary. With all due respect, it would have been pretty foolish for people to fork-over $100+ per point for units in a refurbished North Garden Wing, knowing that the structure would be nearly 90 years old by the time the contract ended.

People don't (or shouldn't!) expect to spend $20K on a facility that looks like it's seen 50 years' worth of use despite the fresh coat of paint and new carpeting. The "refurbishment" needed to return 50-year old DVC rooms to like-new condition is likely to cost just as much (if not more) as rebuilding from the ground up.

That's not to say that they would abandon the "BoardWalk" and "Beach Club" concepts altogether. At the very least, we can always hope that they'll spring for a second set of elevators when they design BoardWalk 2.0.

 

[pilferk]

As I understand it, the reason why DVC contracts have an expiration is that the lands on which the resorts are built, are leased from a third party. So once the lease ends, so does the DVC contract. Any extension or rollover will depend on DVC's and the third party's willingnes to enter into another agreement. With the dates so far into the future, it'll a crap shoot determining what DVC will do. In the meantime, you can gloat in the fact that you stay at primo resorts while saving some serious coin.

Well, the only "3rd party" that would possibly own the land they're using (at least the resorts AT WDW) is the WDW Resorts arm of Disney Corporate. Disney owns the land that all the on site (not sure about off site, maybe them, too) DVC resorts are on.

I'm not sure what they'll decide to do...it will probably largely depend on the situation at WDW when the time approaches. Likely, we won't even know until 2 to 3 years prior (if that) what they're plans are...so the 2042 resorts, at least, will probably see some sort of "bottom drop" as that year approaches. The 2054 resorts will at least have a model (whether Disney sticks to it or not) as to what might happen to base price on....

I wouldn't be surprised if they offered some sort of "discount" on "rebuying" membership to roll over membership. Alternately, I wouldn't be surprised if they did nothing.

 

[psu4glory]

Disney wants to lock people in long-term and the problem with offering 15-20 year contracts is that you can't limit sales to just people in their 60s. If someone in their 20s or 30s inherits a contract in 2040 and is then able to renew it for a short term at a good price, that defeats the purpose of selling long-term ownership to young families.

i have long wondered what will happen as 2042 approaches - and after going through some of the alternatives in my head (and putting what i 'want' to happen aside) - i agree with tjkraz...why would DVD offer up short-term contracts at all when their goal is to secure long-term ones? they haven't done this for the past 16 yrs, why would they start as 2042 approaches?

it's easy for us to say, and hope, that DVD would 'reward' us with renewal offers for being such loyal customers for so many years - but where's the benefit in that for them? they'll likely be turning to a new, younger generation of WDW fans for their profit then...a generation excited about the prospect of filling the next 50 yrs with family visits to DVC resorts.

not sure who posted this earlier, but i agree that DVC owners w/2042 contracts already have a sort of 'intrinsic' renewal option available to them...and one that i have been debating the correct timing of recently. there are two resorts (with more on the way?) whose contracts will be available for resale purchase over the next 'X' yrs that will provide a 12-15 yr contract extension for a very reasonable price. the mystery is, when will the 'break point' be? certainly, the point at which the original DVC resort contracts begin to de-value (if not before), SSR and AKV resale values will begin to escalate considering their "contract renewal" potentials. the trick will be to make the switch before the major price shift occurs.

 

[erikthewise]

I thought we'd cleared this up.

On Jan 31 2042 the appropriate DVC resorts will spontaneously burst into flames and burn to the ground. I just hope I'm there to see it.

The next morning, brand new resorts will be reborn from the ashes. That is, if presales have been good enough...

If not, they'll just plant some trees. In the case of BCV and VWL, you won't even be able to tell that anything's missing.

 

[fishermouse]

I'll be 99 years old in 2054..... and we'll be debating which DVC resort is the best

 

[pilferk]

I'll be 99 years old in 2054..... and we'll be debating which DVC resort is the best

Yeah, I'll be 83 (God willing) in 2057 when my AKV contract expires. Not only will my grandchildren likely have benefitted from it, but there's a decent chance my GREAT grandchildren will have benefitted from it, too.

Wait a sec....I'm gonna need a lot more points!

 

[Mokat76]

I'll be dead by the time my SSR ownership ends. Or I'll be a very, very crabby 101-year-old. Either way, I doubt WDW will be a priority for me. Let my heirs figure it out (unless I've already sold it to finance the nursing home).

Say...that's an idea...Disney Nursing Homes for all us geriatric DVC owners.

 

[G8RFAN]

IMHO, if DVC still remains the highest and best use for the properties, then we will should see a "remarketing" to the the owners years prior to expiration. With population growths, I'm sure they will not have a problem "reselling" all the existing points even if we or our heirs decide not to "continue" or recontract as long a WDW remains a popular destination. However, the other interesting thing is that these structures will need complete renovations before the time is up paid for by the reserves from our maintenance fees. Although I expect much higher maintenance fees due to inflation and general wear and tear in 30 years, I don't nor I am sure any members expect to pay to replenish reserves towards the end if DVC ends and permanently closes each respective pre SSR resort in 2042. Because of this, they will have to address this issue within a reasonable time prior to 2042. Boy, imagine reselling these points at 2042 market prices with virtually no cost basis if these resorts are still in nice operating condition. They would make a fortune. Hopefully for the same reason, they can pass on some sort of "deal" for us.

 

[owensjro]

With the rate of change in the world continually speeding up I wonder what Disney will even look like in 50 years. With new breakthroughs in science, space research, etc I am looking forward to Disney Moon and being the first DVC owner for the Lunar Villas.

Seriously, with space hotels on the horizon I wonder if the space race will really heat up in the next couple of decades and how that will affect things back on earth.

Jim

 

[PSC]

Not only will my grandchildren likely have benefitted from it, but there's a decent chance my GREAT grandchildren will have benefitted from it, too.

Wait a sec....I'm gonna need a lot more points! !

I knew it - this like every discussion around here eventially moves back to us all needing more points?

 

[fishermouse]

With the rate of change in the world continually speeding up I wonder what Disney will even look like in 50 years. With new breakthroughs in science, space research, etc I am looking forward to Disney Moon and being the first DVC owner for the Lunar Villas.

Seriously, with space hotels on the horizon I wonder if the space race will really heat up in the next couple of decades and how that will affect things back on earth.

Jim

Can I fish in space?

 

[Pennyguy23]

Lots of articles I read refer to 2040-2060 as being terrible times for our world. Many enviromentalist (Im not talking about the scientist, more the self important types) bring doom and disater taking place during this time.



I think i read that 2042 is the end of Social Sec.

2050 is the end of all fish life on this planet.

around that time the doomsday clock expected to reach its point. (atomic war)

No more DVC!!!!!!! That will be the worse part of it.

Weird

 

[GatorMickey]

I think we will be given a rollover option