WDW Annual Pass Timing Speculation

[Chuck wright]

Agree we joined dvc in 2006 and we were sold on a couple things but
the magical express and annual passes were the big selling points
we had annual passes till Covid hit and neither my wife or I renewed because our work wouldn’t allow it to be worth while so we let lapse for a year and would get a new one the following yea off course in the mean time they do away with the passes and magical express,going in April a 4 day pass without parkhopper is now almost 600$.sure hope they listen to everyone and bring back the passes or a lot more of our trips will have no park visits or severely reduced visits

I hear and agree with you but Disney does not care as they feel there will always be a line of people willing to go to the parks at whatever cost. They also imo do t care about dvc members

 

[DannysMom]

And dvc … right

Nope. I’m an out of state DVC member. No APs available for me.

 

[Araminta18]

I'm coming in cold...any rumors of new AP sales for non-FL residents, non-DVC folks?

 

[AmishGuy91]

I'm coming in cold...any rumors of new AP sales for non-FL residents, non-DVC folks?

Not at all

 

[DannysMom]

I'm coming in cold...any rumors of new AP sales for non-FL residents, non-DVC folks?

Still at wishes and prayers. So nope.

 

[Dawg74]

I keep wishing they would come back too. We bought mine but not my wife’s as we assumed we could buy hers in the future. Big mistake on our part

 

[Cfabar1]

We were optimistic for a while, but I am beginning to think the annual passes are not coming back anytime soon… If you are up for renewal, I would recommend renewing the highest level of pass you are comfortable with and can qualify for…. It may be a long time before general passes come back to the public, if ever…. We are Pixie right now, and I am hopeful we will be able to renew into Sorcerer or maybe Incredi-Pass when it is time…. I am not sure how much longer these products will be open to new clients… I am, cautiously, hopeful, that DVC will not eliminate the passes and allow people to continue to renew, but I think the next step will be to only allow you to renew your existing pass….

Or if you’re a high roller, just get Club 33 membership if it is available, which will include unlimited access to WDW and DL….

 

[Pooh's World]

We were optimistic for a while, but I am beginning to think the annual passes are not coming back anytime soon… If you are up for renewal, I would recommend renewing the highest level of pass you are comfortable with and can qualify for…. It may be a long time before general passes come back to the public, if ever…. We are Pixie right now, and I am hopeful we will be able to renew into Sorcerer or maybe Incredi-Pass when it is time…. I am not sure how much longer these products will be open to new clients… I am, cautiously, hopeful, that DVC will not eliminate the passes and allow people to continue to renew, but I think the next step will be to only allow you to renew your existing pass….

Or if you’re a high roller, just get Club 33 membership if it is available, which will include unlimited access to WDW and DL….

As I said, I don't think Disney will bring back the AP's till the threat of Universal's Epic Universe and Epic Universe AP is near.

 

[DeeBee3]

Disney Tourist Blog made a prediction of either post April 2023 or late August 2023 (IIRC). I would be thrilled if that were the case for a Sorcerer Pass, but I'm not counting on it either. I do think as summer nears, Dis will get an idea of guest flow and what any potential economic factors are in play.

I do think the will have to be near "desperate" before opening up sales. Unfortunately.

 

[thanxfornoticin]

I think some DVC folks (of which I'm a long-timer) need to prepare themselves if/when APs do return for sale - it's probably not going to be just for DVC..... APs are likely to be for all guests, just like they were before they stopped sales.

 

[Titanium]

When Univeresal's Epic Universe Annual Pass comes out, it will be too late for Disney to dangle their AP after shutting us out for five years.

This is an interesting circumstance.

I have to admit I'm not a big Universal fan so I didn't consider the timing and impact from Universal's AP sales but I imagine it's important. If only Pixies are for sale a lot of local guests might pick up a more generous Universal annual pass.

If WDW is going to cater to the families from Denver people will shift their spending elsewhere. As they say in Macroeconomics "Capital flows to where it's well treated".

 

[Jellybean9]

Agree with both of you but Disney needs to realize that us dvc members are probably there best advertisement,I use to tell people when asked that diffently was worth the cost and the perks were great we bought in 2006
now when asked I don’t have the same answer,s

I am sure DVC members are responsible for some advertisement but I really think the boom in park attendance in the past 10+ years can be attributed to social media. Consistently seeing friends’, strangers’, and travel agents’ magical vacations to Disney World is insane advertisement. In 2000 when that random kid from high school went to Disney World, you never knew about it nor did you see the visuals of that trip. I think Disney is comfortable with DVC folks giving them an injection of cash when they sign the contract and then filling the parks with people who want to have their Instagram worthy trip that they might experience once every 3-5 years.

 

[tidefan]

I am sure DVC members are responsible for some advertisement but I really think the boom in park attendance in the past 10+ years can be attributed to social media. Consistently seeing friends’, strangers’, and travel agents’ magical vacations to Disney World is insane advertisement. In 2000 when that random kid from high school went to Disney World, you never knew about it nor did you see the visuals of that trip. I think Disney is comfortable with DVC folks giving them an injection of cash when they sign the contract and then filling the parks with people who want to have their Instagram worthy trip that they might experience once every 3-5 years.

That works great short-term, but is it a sustainable long-term business plan? I think that you've had a lot of pent-up demand due to no vacations during the pandemic. I think that is subsiding (or maybe "normalizing" is a better term) a bit.

It will be interesting to see what happens. Now, I'm no expert, but it seemed to me that prior to the pandemic, the parks were extremely full as well, had plenty of AP holders, and the Parks and Resorts division still made a ton of money. Now, I know that Disney is all in on the data modeling, but we have a term in data modeling called "overfitting your model". In other words, you may be able to fine tune things to the nth degree based on your existing data, but when you are faced with data that doesn't necessarily look like your past history, your models do not perform well.

Also, these tend to be "short-term" models that look ahead monthly, quarterly, or even yearly (like when stockholder reports are due). Good strategic plans should look ahead 5 to 10 years and ask where do you want to be then. I can assure you that if they get something like 2007/2008 or the post-pandemic period, their attendance will drop-off, but the DVC folks will still be there. I'd imagine they'd want them to visit the parks...

 

[gmi3804]

My Sorcerer AP expires on 3/6, and the link I received in the e-mail only allows me to renew as an Incredipass, for upwards of $1,200. Is this right?

 

[naman1221]

My Sorcerer AP expires on 3/6, and the link I received in the e-mail only allows me to renew as an Incredipass, for upwards of $1,200. Is this right?

You need to call member services - it is the only way to renew sorcerer.

 

[gmi3804]

You need to call member services - it is the only way to renew sorcerer.

Ah, OK. Funny that they won’t let you renew online, especially since they give you a link to do it!

 

[Bibbidi_Boo]

That works great short-term, but is it a sustainable long-term business plan? I think that you've had a lot of pent-up demand due to no vacations during the pandemic. I think that is subsiding (or maybe "normalizing" is a better term) a bit.

It will be interesting to see what happens. Now, I'm no expert, but it seemed to me that prior to the pandemic, the parks were extremely full as well, had plenty of AP holders, and the Parks and Resorts division still made a ton of money. Now, I know that Disney is all in on the data modeling, but we have a term in data modeling called "overfitting your model". In other words, you may be able to fine tune things to the nth degree based on your existing data, but when you are faced with data that doesn't necessarily look like your past history, your models do not perform well.

Also, these tend to be "short-term" models that look ahead monthly, quarterly, or even yearly (like when stockholder reports are due). Good strategic plans should look ahead 5 to 10 years and ask where do you want to be then. I can assure you that if they get something like 2007/2008 or the post-pandemic period, their attendance will drop-off, but the DVC folks will still be there. I'd imagine they'd want them to visit the parks...

Pent up demand is over and has been. People have been pretty much doing normal travel for a year or more now. The parks are busy but still not close to what they were in 2019/early 2020.

 

[tidefan]

Pent up demand is over and has been. People have been pretty much doing normal travel for a year or more now. The parks are busy but still not close to what they were in 2019/early 2020.

So... that brings up my question as to why people are saying "They can't sell APs now because the parks are too full".

Don't know that I've ever bought that argument.

 

[CarolynFH]

Ah, OK. Funny that they won’t let you renew online, especially since they give you a link to do it!

Anyone can renew to an IncrediPass. Only DVC members who are eligible for Membership Extras can renew to a DVC Sorcerer pass. You have to call MS so they can confirm your current eligibility, then they connect you to the ticketing CMs and vouch for your eligibility before ticketing takes your money. (FL residents who are renewing to a FL Resident Sorcerer pass have a different path to confirm eligibility.)

They give you a link to renew to IncrediPass online in hopes that you’ll use it and they can collect the extra $$ for that AP.

 

[Brian Noble]

why people are saying "They can't sell APs now because the parks are too full".

I put it slightly differently: They don't feel the need to offer bulk discounts on admission to non-FL residents, because (a) they have sufficient demand by people willing to pay day-ticket prices to accomplish their goals, and (b) they are (presumably) concerned that offering a bulk discount would negatively impact them for whatever reason.

They can sell new out-of-state APs. They are choosing not to. That's disappointing to those who might visit often enough such that a bulk discount would pay off. But for now, Disney is content to let those people choose to come less often, pay the higher day ticket rates, or both. If and when circumstances change, Disney will instead choose to offer some form of bulk admission discount. Many (and perhaps even most) of those "frequently flyer" guests will come rushing back when they do.

As an aside: this is an opportunity for "frequent fliers" to start exploring other vacation options. We just got back from a week at Vidanta Nuevo Vallarta. It was a bit more expensive to fly there than it is to Orlando (though these days Orlando is pricey too), but the overall vacation was quite a bit cheaper. That's partly because we got a deal on the lodging, but only partly. We didn't try to keep a lid on food/beverage spending, which came to less than $1K for the week for the two of us. We spent another $250 on an off-resort excursion (whale watching; awesome). Throw in another $100-200 in miscellaneous stuff (tips, taxi fares, etc.) The only thing that was left was lodging (much cheaper than WDW) and airfare (a bit more than MCO). Overall it was much more affordable than a week at WDW, we never set an alarm except on our departure day, and we didn't need a vacation from our vacation when we got home.