VGF2 vs RIV

[BeachClub2014]

Let’s ignore the direct price, what would be your guess right now, which one would you expect to be worth more on resale market in 2032?

For me, the prospective incremental difference in the resale price of a 50-point contract ten years into the future would not be the most important metric in making this purchase. But hey, that's just me.

 

[Ruttangel]

For me, the prospective incremental difference in the resale price of a 50-point contract ten years into the future would not be the most important metric in making this purchase. But hey, that's just me.

If you’re sitting on the fence about which resort you would love to own then I think finance is a good way to settle it

 

[Sandisw]

Let’s ignore the direct price, what would be your guess right now, which one would you expect to be worth more on resale market in 2032?

Of course Poly will but we can apply that same logic to VGF and RIV. Which one will be selling better in 2054? VGF with 10 years or RIV with 16? I say RIV.

Both are popular and well liked resorts. RIV points charts are slightly better but with 50 points, that’s a wash.

We certainly know resale price right now gives the edge to VGF.

Will it always be that way? Who knows? Too soon to tell.

The changes at the resort with a massive amount of studios could change the landscape in needing to own there.

 

[BeachClub2014]

If you’re sitting on the fence about which resort you would love to own then I think finance is a good way to settle it

No argument here. I was just saying that a small difference in relative value on the resale market wouldn't be a deal-breaker for me, either way.

 

[kboo]

Just bought riv last week and got the 2021 points. Not a fan of vgf and wanted to be closer to Epcot. If you’re buying 50 points you might get more value out of riv with the tower studios depending on how many people you travel with.

We own at both VGF(1) and RIV - and at 50 points, I would say buy where you would like to use those points at 11 months, with a slight weight to RIV because 50-100 (with banking) points will go a lot farther at Riviera. For example, 50-100 points can get you 2-3 nights in a tower studio or a standard studio (sleeps 5) over New Year's. (more on this later). The same # of points will get you 2 nights the same time period, not 3.

With the # of studios soon to be available at VGF, you stand a better chance, I think, of getting a standard studio at VGF at 7 mo than getting a (tower or) standard studio at RIV. And a not very well kept secret at Riviera: most of the standard rooms have views of MK *and* EP fireworks. DH watched NYE fireworks on 12/31/21 and he said they were the most amazing fireworks he's seen anywhere (and we live in NYC). **edited to add: I am not sure that we would ever book Riv preferred over standard because we prefer standard - all the time.

If you already are leaning toward Riviera, the possible value of resale at least 10 years down the line is not something I would worry about now. The delta is not likely to be huge, especially for 50 points. The resale restriction, imo, is overblown. You are not the one who will be contending with it, and it only matters if you decide to resell your points, which may or may not happen any time soon.

My kids seem to prefer VGF more, DH and I like RIV more, but you really can't go wrong with either.

**edited to add: even assuming a $2 difference in dues, that's $100 difference in dues per year, not really something that should have you looking at your 2nd choice resort. Similarly, even if RIV resale sells consistently at $30 per point less than VGF, you might recover $1500 less sometime in the future. Riviera rentals are pretty hard to come by, because most of the new owners are busy using their points. You could easily "make up" that potential difference through point rentals, if you wanted. (I am never putting our RIV points up for rent. Just sayin'.)

 

[havoc315]

it is true, board sponsor has a $20 spread on a 100pt instant sale on VGF and RIV and that gap is bigger on listings, youve picked out some outliers sure but do you really think VGF sold out price will be same as RIV in 10 years, that’s just not going to happen

I suspect the sold out price will be similar. Maybe a $10 spread by then. And I suspect in 25-35 years, Riviera will have a higher resale price due to have more years left.

But I really don’t know with any certainty. GFV resale value might remain low as it becomes easy to book studios. Or Riviera value could grow with improvements in Epcot and future skyliner expansion. GFV value could decline with over saturation of the MK area, with the addition of the new Poly tower. RIV value could decline if it becomes the only restricted resort.

Lots of unknowns. But I’d be very very surprised if GFV resale is significantly higher than RIV resale in 10-20 years. And in 25-35 years, I definitely expect RIV resale to be higher than GFV. (Right now, not much difference between 42 years and 48 years. But there is a big difference between 12 years and 18 years, of 6 years and 12 years).

 

[perchy]

Now let’s throw 100 resale pts at Hilton Head in the mix. 100 points here is less than 50 points at either; the initial cost is less; and while there’s dues to consider, it’ll end in 20 years. And I might be able to put those points to good use at the 11 month mark.

Or, I could buy nothing and save for Poly2.

Sigh.

 

[nightwing12]

We planned on adding on at vgf2 but stayed there (vgf1) for the first time last week. Ended up adding on at RIV which we greatly prefer.

 

[kboo]

Now let’s throw 100 resale pts at Hilton Head in the mix. 100 points here is less than 50 points at either; the initial cost is less; and while there’s dues to consider, it’ll end in 20 years. And I might be able to put those points to good use at the 11 month mark.

Or, I could buy nothing and save for Poly2.

Sigh.

100 points at HHI will cost about $1000/year. 50 points at RIV = $419. so you will bay almost $600 more per year to try to book wdw at 7mo - if you are looking at studios, you will have a hard time at many of the more desirable resorts. At what point does the cost savings in the initial purchase get eaten up by higher dues?

I think it is a perfectly valid approach if you love HHI and plan to go there often, but that is not something I would consider if my main goal would be to go to WDW. There are plenty of good neighbor hotels around WDW that would cost you less, and give you more flexibility, even at RIV's $419/year dues price. (50 points gets you 2 nights in a studio, for purchase price + $419/year vs. deals on hotels at $200/nt, with easier booking and cancellation and without the initial purchase price.)

ETA: I see you already own at HHI and Poly. If you have had good experiences using HHI as sleeparound points, then 100 more sleeparound points (as opposed to 50 at a new home resort) may or may not be worth an additional $600/year in dues. If RIV tugs at you, and you haven't stayed there yet, try it out. Even if the owner incentives for VGF2 go away, or go up a little, it might be worth the wait to see which you'd prefer at 11 months.

 

[RamblinWreck]

Now let’s throw 100 resale pts at Hilton Head in the mix. 100 points here is less than 50 points at either; the initial cost is less; and while there’s dues to consider, it’ll end in 20 years. And I might be able to put those points to good use at the 11 month mark.

Or, I could buy nothing and save for Poly2.

Sigh.

Dues are really the most important factor.

If you offered me a DVC contract that was $400 a point and came with no dues I would take that deal immediately.

 

[TinkB278]

My only question about the dues is, how can you really buy based on dues for resorts that are within $1-$1.50/point of each other? We have seen lower dues resorts have large increases last year while higher dues resorts like riviera had almost no increase. To me, it almost seems like trying to buy based on estimated future resale rates.

 

[Sandisw]

My only question about the dues is, how can you really buy based on dues for resorts that are within $1-$1.50/point of each other? We have seen lower dues resorts have large resorts last year while higher dues resorts like riviera had almost no increase. To me, it almost seems like trying to buy based on estimated future resale rates.

You do have to base everything on current so it is a guess. But at least it is a current number to use to try to decide if resorts are both equal in other ways.

 

[kboo]

My only question about the dues is, how can you really buy based on dues for resorts that are within $1-$1.50/point of each other? We have seen lower dues resorts have large increases last year while higher dues resorts like riviera had almost no increase. To me, it almost seems like trying to buy based on estimated future resale rates.

I agree - my point was with the OP comparing 100 HHI points v 50 at RIV/VGF ... that *does* end up being a bigger delta, because of more points multiplied by higher dues.

 

[havoc315]

My only question about the dues is, how can you really buy based on dues for resorts that are within $1-$1.50/point of each other? We have seen lower dues resorts have large increases last year while higher dues resorts like riviera had almost no increase. To me, it almost seems like trying to buy based on estimated future resale rates.

Good point. It's very hard to predict long term dues. But over time, we very generally can expect convergence of dues. Riviera may increase more slowly as other resorts "catch up." I suspect this is the nature of a new resort, it's been similar with CCV. To the extent dues were "overestimated" to launch, (or reflect costs of declared but unsold points), dues may increase more slowly at first.
We also don't know the effect of the GFV expansion on dues. While I don't expect a big impact, we will have to wait and see. (on the other hand, if Poly addition is the same association, it may have a significant dues impact, as you're now maintaining a whole new building, amenities and more developed land).

Connected to dues, there is also the question of whether you're buying points based on a certain trip requirement. If you want 1 week in a standard studio at RIV vs GFV... You'll need more points at GFV. Which will cost more in upfront costs AND you're paying more in dues by owning more points.

In the end, I return to buy where you want to stay. The finances are not vastly different. Future differences (dues, resale value) are highly speculative. If there was a huge difference in cost, I'd see it as a factor. But where current costs are similar, and future costs are so highly speculative and also likely to be similar, I'd just buy where you want to stay.

 

[Frugal Fairy Tales]

Now let’s throw 100 resale pts at Hilton Head in the mix. 100 points here is less than 50 points at either; the initial cost is less; and while there’s dues to consider, it’ll end in 20 years. And I might be able to put those points to good use at the 11 month mark.

Or, I could buy nothing and save for Poly2.

Sigh.

What if Poly2 never happens? All we have is a short, vague press release and some kooky concept art that looks like a doctored Reflections photo. Did they just throw this out there? Is there anything concrete behind this flaky Poly announcement?

 

[TinkB278]

What if Poly2 never happens? All we have is a short, vague press release and some kooky concept art that looks like a doctored Reflections photo. Did they just throw this out there? Is there anything concrete behind this flaky Poly announcement?

I’ve been thinking about this too as I’ve decided holding off buying RIV or VGF (or AKV now too with the price increase ) because I’d rather buy at the new poly in a couple years. But what if it never happens or opens with crazy prices and I’ve missed out on VGF/RIV. It’s literally driving me crazy.

 

[Sandisw]

What if Poly2 never happens? All we have is a short, vague press release and some kooky concept art that looks like a doctored Reflections photo. Did they just throw this out there? Is there anything concrete behind this flaky Poly announcement?

No, not yet. It very well could never happen. However, other than Reflections.... which is a casualty of the pandemic which may have had more to do with being a mixed use resort...everything that DVD has announced will be built, has been built.

This is almost 3 years away from being open so plenty of time for all the logistics to be worked out.

 

[Frugal Fairy Tales]

I’ve been thinking about this too as I’ve decided holding off buying RIV or VGF (or AKV now too with the price increase ) because I’d rather buy at the new poly in a couple years. But what if it never happens or opens with crazy prices and I’ve missed out on VGF/RIV. It’s literally driving me crazy.

Me too! They’ve thrown out enough uncertainty that it is paralyzing me. If only I loved VGF, or RIV didn’t have resale restrictions, or there were actual info about new Poly! On a positive note, it’s preventing me from spending money. So yay for me; too bad for Disney

 

[Sandisw]

I’ve been thinking about this too as I’ve decided holding off buying RIV or VGF (or AKV now too with the price increase ) because I’d rather buy at the new poly in a couple years. But what if it never happens or opens with crazy prices and I’ve missed out on VGF/RIV. It’s literally driving me crazy.

You have brought up a lot of good points and this is the exact reason why DVD puts into the contracts to not buy based on the potential of new resorts. All I can add is that if you buy direct at RIV/VGF with the current incentives, and this is built, you will be able to stay there.

If it is not, then you will still have the option to stay at the current Poly. If you really don't want the points, don't need the points, and don't really like either RIV/VGF, then honestly, whatever extra you spend down the line is worth the wait. But, if owning either one of those is a good 2nd choice, then IMO, I'd buy and go from there!

 

[TinkB278]

Me too! They’ve thrown out enough uncertainty that it is paralyzing me. If only I loved VGF, or RIV didn’t have resale restrictions, or there were actual info about new Poly! On a positive note, it’s preventing me from spending money. So yay for me; too bad for Disney

You sound exactly like me! I just don’t love the poly, love RIV but I already own there and feel nervous about having too many points with the resale restrictions (never thought I’d have to sell until I almost lost my job over the last year, now I’m never not going to have job loss in the back of my mind). I do think the extra time without buying any points could be good to see what direction Disney goes in over the next couple years. Logistically I know waiting for poly2 is the smart thing, but of course I am worried about how huge the point increases could get as I’m sure Disney is ready to cash in on inflation and so I feel like it’s now or never, but there is something wrong with all the current options available to me lol!