VGF worth the Money ? Why I think YES!!!

[Dean]

Dean, they will all save money versus paying cash to disney for the same resort for the life of the contract they have purchased. Empirically so....there's really no debating that. Your debate would be that they don't want to stay there for 50 years or the argument you keep making about VGF purchases that owners will greater than 50% of the time want to "trade down" to another resort. Why would they do that? What's the incentive for a VGF owner to trade down to ANY resort? Except potentially BCV or maybe Boardwalk during F&W?

Why would somebody buy VGF to stay at SSR or OKW or AKV or BLT? I don't get it....am I missing something? You may know tons of people who like to resort hop....and for those buyers, yes, SSR is the way to go....if you don't care where you stay. But somebody buying in at VGF, I would wager, is doing so because they want to stay at the best.

Similar to trading "down" into RCI, why would they stay at a "lesser" resort? Better to rent their points out at a premium and then rent cheap points from another owner....if that's what they really wanted to do....but then...why?

Paying cash to Disney isn't the only option though, you have to add renting privately to the options. There are current studio nights here and there, at lest 2 together for a few times. when you take what you can get and add in the wait list, successes will happen. Many will buy simply because it's what's currently being sold, this is likely the largest group. Those who are educated and buy in planning to stay there most or all the time will be better positioned but this will be the minority of buyers in all likelihood.

OK, Dean, let me "open the kimono" as they say in my industry and I will reveal to you my math.

The only way to compare buying DVC vs not buying, in my opinion, is comparing buying DVC and staying at DVC with your points (not renting any out) vs Renting DVC points and staying at DVC for the same amount of time as if you owned. This way the points used buy vs rent are the same. It's completely identical: if you buy you are staying in a DVC room, if you rent you are staying in a DVC room, if you want a 1 BR you have to buy more points or rent more points. It's too difficult to compare DVC to rack rates, but Renting DVC vs Buying DVC is a perfect, flawless comparison.

Right now a well respected rental site charges $14 per point. So let's use that as our example.

BWV were selling for $55 per point back in 2012 with banked points. The dues are roughly $6 per point. So if you were to rent you'd pay $14 per point annually for your stay, if you were to buy you'd pay $6 per point annually for your stay. Through buying you "save" $8 per point for each year you stay at WDW plus you got "free" banked points. If you rented you'd have to rent those banked points for all point usage to be equivalent. Since you bought we should deduct the rental value of those banked points. So your $55 cost was really like $41 ($55-$14 rental). Now, with the $8 per point difference between buying vs renting, and a $41 purchase point after factoring the banked points you can see that you would break even in 5 years (41/8 = 5).

Now BWV is about $80, so you have $25 more up front divided by the $8 savings each year gives you three more years, or about 8 years for breakeven if you buy today.

That is my math. If you want to discuss the time value of money then I'd point out that with such a short time horizon (5 years) you'd have to invest the money in a CD earning 1%, so it's not like TVM really affects this in any way. The math for you since you will say TVM does matter: $55 per point X 1% X 5 years = 2.55 per point you would have made in interest (although this overstates it because you would've been spending $8 per year on your trip so you'd actually have less invested earning that 1% each year). So your break even becomes like 5.5 years instead of 5.

Buying DVC pays off vs Renting DVC points if you are going to go to WDW annually for the next 5 years (screaming deal), 8 years (today's resale), or 17 years (guestimate of buying direct utlizing the $8 difference in rent vs dues and the $150 price point vs $80 resale). Of course buying direct I will agree that TVM should factor in because a 17 year payback you could invest some of that cash in the market and get better than 1%. Buying direct will take longer to break even, but it will break even eventually. In fact I'd guarantee you'd break even within 25 years and with a 50 year time horizon on VGF I think people who buy at direct prices will come out ahead.

You started out with the idea that it's all or nothing with buying DVC vs not at all, IMO that is far from accurate in that one can buy off property, one can buy some DVC points and do some one and some off, one can own RCI and try to trade in, one can buy for all stays at a lessor resort or for all stays at a more expensive resort and all type of variations and combinations. Even just comparing owning to renting is too simplistic in my book. IMO the correct formula for determining savings is what you would have paid without owning DVC vs what DVC actually costs including the TVM.

My view on the TMV for a new purchase vs not buying is half at MM rates and half at long term rates. My view on the TMV for a SSR vs VGF type of decision is roughly 3/4 long term rates, for long term, I think 8% is a conservative number. Include yearly dues at 4% and room/rental costs esc at 4%. Then deduct the amount for a yearly comparable vacation to what you would have spent without owning. I also personally assume return of principle over 10 years but certainly not over the entire life of the contract, too many risks and variables IMO otherwise.

I've had 27 exchange weeks into Disney in the last 11 years with II and RCI in addition to the points we own so there are definitely other ways to get into the system. Obviously VGF isn't going to be common for that type of plan.

YMMV.

 

[DougEMG]

OK, Dean, let me "open the kimono" as they say in my industry and I will reveal to you my math.

The only way to compare buying DVC vs not buying, in my opinion, is comparing buying DVC and staying at DVC with your points (not renting any out) vs Renting DVC points and staying at DVC for the same amount of time as if you owned. This way the points used buy vs rent are the same. It's completely identical: if you buy you are staying in a DVC room, if you rent you are staying in a DVC room, if you want a 1 BR you have to buy more points or rent more points. It's too difficult to compare DVC to rack rates, but Renting DVC vs Buying DVC is a perfect, flawless comparison.

Right now a well respected rental site charges $14 per point. So let's use that as our example.

BWV were selling for $55 per point back in 2012 with banked points. The dues are roughly $6 per point. So if you were to rent you'd pay $14 per point annually for your stay, if you were to buy you'd pay $6 per point annually for your stay. Through buying you "save" $8 per point for each year you stay at WDW plus you got "free" banked points. If you rented you'd have to rent those banked points for all point usage to be equivalent. Since you bought we should deduct the rental value of those banked points. So your $55 cost was really like $41 ($55-$14 rental). Now, with the $8 per point difference between buying vs renting, and a $41 purchase point after factoring the banked points you can see that you would break even in 5 years (41/8 = 5).

Now BWV is about $80, so you have $25 more up front divided by the $8 savings each year gives you three more years, or about 8 years for breakeven if you buy today.

That is my math. If you want to discuss the time value of money then I'd point out that with such a short time horizon (5 years) you'd have to invest the money in a CD earning 1%, so it's not like TVM really affects this in any way. The math for you since you will say TVM does matter: $55 per point X 1% X 5 years = 2.55 per point you would have made in interest (although this overstates it because you would've been spending $8 per year on your trip so you'd actually have less invested earning that 1% each year). So your break even becomes like 5.5 years instead of 5.

Buying DVC pays off vs Renting DVC points if you are going to go to WDW annually for the next 5 years (screaming deal), 8 years (today's resale), or 17 years (guestimate of buying direct utlizing the $8 difference in rent vs dues and the $150 price point vs $80 resale). Of course buying direct I will agree that TVM should factor in because a 17 year payback you could invest some of that cash in the market and get better than 1%. Buying direct will take longer to break even, but it will break even eventually. In fact I'd guarantee you'd break even within 25 years and with a 50 year time horizon on VGF I think people who buy at direct prices will come out ahead.

This exactly like one of the methods I look at when deciding to purchase a DVC contract. And for me, I want a 5-7 year payback or I'm not interested.

 

[gray52]

Nah, while I feel for folks that buy AKV at current direct prices, they are still going to save money over time....the purchase price is still a small percentage of the overall outlay of cash for DVC...it's just that they could have paid less. Still not a bad decision. I just don't think buying into DVC is a bad decision at any point....it's just a matter of how much you are going to save. Of course, if you buy into AKL direct and then sell 5 years later....well, that's not very smart. Nobody "hates" Dean.....he's just a Debbie Downer.....or Dean Downer....and he talks like his truth is the only truth...and it isn't so....it's fun with statistics folks. An intelligent person can make statistics prove anything they want them to prove.... Dean uses it to make people feel like they were taken. The truth is that most current DVC owners are quite happy....

1. There's many people out there who's never been on these boards who do feel as if they were taken. Pixie dust is not real. I've spoken to many.

2. Interesting how people get so defensive when the facts are right there in front of them and all you do is ask them to see them.

3. I've never read anything in Deans posts that made me think he was collecting a commission on resale... I always thought he had the best interest of "the fence" people in mind.

4. And then there's the arguable fact that resale is the most sensible purchase in almost every situation. It just is.

Sent from my iPad using DISBoards

 

[DougEMG]

One thing to remember is that not all owners can make their bookings during their home resort priority window. This summer I originally booked 3 weeks at 11 months at BWV, then at 7 months I used my SSR points to book 9 days at BCv and 7 days at VGF and thus dropped some of my BWV days. Then when I wanted to add another week 5 months out, all that was available was OKW and SSR. My point is that I think there are always going to be some rooms at 7 months at VGF.

And while I'm really looking forward to staying at the VGF, I can't afford to pay the direct prices they are asking. Now if I have a few extra pennies, I'd probably be tempted to buy just cause it does look like a sweat resort and I don't own any in the MK area.

 

[DougEMG]

1. There's many people out there who's never been on these boards who do feel as if they were taken. Pixie dust is not real. I've spoken to many.

2. Interesting how people get so defensive when the facts are right there in front of them and all you do is ask them to see them.

3. I've never read anything in Deans posts that made me think he was collecting a commission on resale... I always thought he had the best interest of "the fence" people in mind.

4. And then there's the arguable fact that resale is the most sensible purchase in almost every situation. It just is.

Sent from my iPad using DISBoards

For anyone thinking about buying DVC, I highly recommend that they read the posts by Dean. Then they'll have a better chance of making an informed decision.

 

[maggiegirl]

We are all reading carefully and learning lots!

 

[Sandisw]

Paying cash to Disney isn't the only option though, you have to add renting privately to the options. There are current studio nights here and there, at lest 2 together for a few times. when you take what you can get and add in the wait list, successes will happen. Many will buy simply because it's what's currently being sold, this is likely the largest group. Those who are educated and buy in planning to stay there most or all the time will be better positioned but this will be the minority of buyers in all likelihood.

You started out with the idea that it's all or nothing with buying DVC vs not at all, IMO that is far from accurate in that one can buy off property, one can buy some DVC points and do some one and some off, one can own RCI and try to trade in, one can buy for all stays at a lessor resort or for all stays at a more expensive resort and all type of variations and combinations. Even just comparing owning to renting is too simplistic in my book. IMO the correct formula for determining savings is what you would have paid without owning DVC vs what DVC actually costs including the TVM.

My view on the TMV for a new purchase vs not buying is half at MM rates and half at long term rates. My view on the TMV for a SSR vs VGF type of decision is roughly 3/4 long term rates, for long term, I think 8% is a conservative number. Include yearly dues at 4% and room/rental costs esc at 4%. Then deduct the amount for a yearly comparable vacation to what you would have spent without owning. I also personally assume return of principle over 10 years but certainly not over the entire life of the contract, too many risks and variables IMO otherwise.

I've had 27 exchange weeks into Disney in the last 11 years with II and RCI in addition to the points we own so there are definitely other ways to get into the system. Obviously VGF isn't going to be common for that type of plan.

YMMV.

I do agree with you that there are other options but you also have to remember that unless someone would actually consider those options if they don't buy DVC, its a moot point.

We would have never rented points or stayed at an offsite location, regardless of the savings so when we were looking at the numbers, we only considered what we would realistically do if we didn't buy in.

Having said that, though, I do think it is important for potential buyers to think about all the information you provide for consideration and then decide from there, what pieces apply to them or they should consider as part of the deciding process.

Once someone has all the information available--and you definitely have a way of opening eyes to all the things to think about--then at least they can decide what to use as part of their personal decision since we all don't put the same value on the where each of those options should rate in terms of importance.

For us, it was about owning at the places we wanted to be, even if it meant spending more since booking during home resort was more important than waiting and hoping. TVM wasn't part of our calculation--not because we didn't think about it--but because we put it very low on our list of priorities and knew it wasn't going to impact the decision.

In the end, everyone should be comfortable with whatever decision they make and if they feel that the way they analyzed things makes sense for them in both the short and long term sense, then it was the right decision!

 

[Dean]

In the end, everyone should be comfortable with whatever decision they make and if they feel that the way they analyzed things makes sense for them in both the short and long term sense, then it was the right decision!

I think this is where a lot of people have a contention with my opinions because while I feel they have the right to make those decisions, that does not automatically make them good decisions. I can quote you many decisions I've made and felt at the time it was a good one but didn't turn out as good as I thought it would. Otherwise your post is a good summary of my intent when I post on such thread's. I'd ask those who disagree to consider 2 issues, one that often these are thread's where buying in or buying new/additional are a question and the other, that there are many reading now and in the future that may not post and may need more broad info than the immediate question being asked. I'd add that you don't know what you don't know or far more applicable to DVC, that there are often options that might fit better for a given person that they either didn't know about, did not consider or made incorrect assumptions about. This was never more true than when looking at off property options.

 

[Johnny D]

Love the Ben Vs. Dean Battle!!

Some of my conclusions after reading all the post the last few days.

There are currently 4 tiers with DVC properties at WDW.

Tier 1 Monorail resorts...VGF, BLt, and soon to be Poly

Tier 2 Epcot Resorts....BCV and BWW

Tier 3 VWL, Beautiful resort...love it! But not on the monorail and can't walk to 2 parks like Epcot resorts. AKL

Tier 4 SSR and OKW

I believe the values of owning at each resort are different due to the fundamentals of real estate. Location, Location, Location and supply and demand. Also the mentality of the buyer is different; especially the resale buyer.

The buyers at the monorail resorts will have very very high preference to stay there; and most buy their points for that home resort preference. I know I did. Though they will occasionally stay someplace else for a change of pace, there home resort is their baby and they understand the value of their home resort preference and will stay their most of the time. Dropping down to tier 4; these buyers are looking for the cheapest way in. They bought because that was what was being sold at the time, or they buy resale; they like their home resort, but will try to stay at tier 1 resorts if they can and have the points. Stay at tier 2 resorts if don't want to use the high points needed on tier 1 resorts or can't get in at 7 month. And finally, their home resort if that's all that is left. Not all, but many. Though that is not in stone, it is the s strategy of many people I know. How many people do you know who own BLT and are staying at SSR or OKW?

My point is, you can't compare buyers behaviors at all resorts and predict they will be the same. Reading these threads, people think that VGF buyers will behave the same as other resorts owners in their booking habits, opening up availability at 7 months for studios. This is just not going to happen. If is Disney's Flagship resort and the smallest. We VGF owners get that. I own 200 points at BWV and now 200 at VGF. My wife and I have our strategy all locked it. We plan to NEVER use VGF anywhere but VGF!! Our BWV points will be used at BWV during F & W, with an occational stay at VWL and AKL.

I don't think DVC is inexpensive at $150 a point. What I do think is I am going to be staying at Disney's Flagship resort in a studio at least 12 nights a year for the next 10 years at a cost thousands less if I didn't own. Lastly I don't feel dvc is the deal it once was when I bought in at BWV in 1999. Lastly, to the fan favorite Dean, as far as that beer goes, it is on me!! If you ever book a studio for more than 2 days in a row in the month of December at VGF without being a member...Victoria and Alberts dinner on me.

 

[Johnny D]

Sorry, a little tired late last night. Hit reply to post without proof reading.

Didn't finish a thought.

Meant to say that that I don't think DVC is the value it once was at $150 a point. But that is not to say if used, as I feel many VGF owners will; buy, hold, and use overwhelmingly at VGF, there is still significant savings and value. I do feel long term one will average spending about $200 a night even when calculating TMV if held for at least 10 years. I think most people would think for the quality and location of the VGF resort that is still value.

Just buying into DVC and having the "potential" of staying at any of the resorts is very very different than owning at either VGF or soon to be Poly. This is due to the size and popularity of those 2 resorts. BLT though many love, will be easier to get at 7 months than the other 2 because of size. Your home resort does matter!!! And it will even matter more with the big 2! (VGF and Poly)

 

[Dean]

Love the Ben Vs. Dean Battle!!

Some of my conclusions after reading all the post the last few days.

There are currently 4 tiers with DVC properties at WDW.

Tier 1 Monorail resorts...VGF, BLt, and soon to be Poly

Tier 2 Epcot Resorts....BCV and BWW

Tier 3 VWL, Beautiful resort...love it! But not on the monorail and can't walk to 2 parks like Epcot resorts. AKL

Tier 4 SSR and OKW

I don't disagree with your groupings and would agree that OVERALL that's likely the order of demand as well (roughly) but would point out that many members and potential members would order them differently. I would also point out that there really are 2 groupings for most people, where they prefer to own and where they prefer to stay and they are often not the same.

I believe the values of owning at each resort are different due to the fundamentals of real estate. Location, Location, Location and supply and demand. Also the mentality of the buyer is different; especially the resale buyer.

The buyers at the monorail resorts will have very very high preference to stay there; and most buy their points for that home resort preference. I know I did. Though they will occasionally stay someplace else for a change of pace, there home resort is their baby and they understand the value of their home resort preference and will stay their most of the time. Dropping down to tier 4; these buyers are looking for the cheapest way in. They bought because that was what was being sold at the time, or they buy resale; they like their home resort, but will try to stay at tier 1 resorts if they can and have the points. Stay at tier 2 resorts if don't want to use the high points needed on tier 1 resorts or can't get in at 7 month. And finally, their home resort if that's all that is left. Not all, but many. Though that is not in stone, it is the s strategy of many people I know. How many people do you know who own BLT and are staying at SSR or OKW?

There are many types of buyers. Remember that the majority of points are sold to new members who often don't know about resale or at least well enough to make an informed decision and who don't have enough experience to truly know what they will want long term. Also that the hype/emotion of buying often overwhelms the more factual evaluation and decision process. We see it all the time here on DIS and given that this group overall is likely the best informed out there, expect the problems/issues/unknowns to be magnified for others not here or on similar groups. That's true even for the Yahoo groups that I've seen.

My point is, you can't compare buyers behaviors at all resorts and predict they will be the same. Reading these threads, people think that VGF buyers will behave the same as other resorts owners in their booking habits, opening up availability at 7 months for studios. This is just not going to happen. If is Disney's Flagship resort and the smallest. We VGF owners get that. I own 200 points at BWV and now 200 at VGF. My wife and I have our strategy all locked it. We plan to NEVER use VGF anywhere but VGF!! Our BWV points will be used at BWV during F & W, with an occational stay at VWL and AKL.

That may be true for very experienced buyers but more often than not you'll see new buyers at resorts like BLT & VGF buy there then stay other places mostly. It happened a lot with BLT and many deluded themselves into the idea that it was worth it retail just because the dues were low at the time. When VGF dues exceed VB, will all members still feel it was a good purchase?

I don't think DVC is inexpensive at $150 a point. What I do think is I am going to be staying at Disney's Flagship resort in a studio at least 12 nights a year for the next 10 years at a cost thousands less if I didn't own. Lastly I don't feel dvc is the deal it once was when I bought in at BWV in 1999. Lastly, to the fan favorite Dean, as far as that beer goes, it is on me!! If you ever book a studio for more than 2 days in a row in the month of December at VGF without being a member...Victoria and Alberts dinner on me.

That's quite a set of restrictions but it's found money. I'm assuming there's no time restriction and that it covers the spouse since I believe the patterns will be different in 3-4 years than now for the reasons I've stated. How about an either or, 3 days or more in Dec or 5 days in a row any time since the statement that one would never be able to get in there period.

 

[Dean]

Just buying into DVC and having the "potential" of staying at any of the resorts is very very different than owning at either VGF or soon to be Poly. This is due to the size and popularity of those 2 resorts. BLT though many love, will be easier to get at 7 months than the other 2 because of size. Your home resort does matter!!! And it will even matter more with the big 2! (VGF and Poly)

But the same applies to a degree to all resorts. There are things that will be more difficult to get than VGF as a whole including BCV 2 queen, AKV concierge and certain HH times/villas. Plus one owning VGF will have the same issue at the Poly as vice versa. As noted, if one must stay at a given resort that is high demand, the only way to do so consistently is to own there. Then comes the question of whether it works out financially to buy for that option, often it does not. The truth is that compared to a moderate or above, DVC studios will work out in almost all cases but that's not what most people do. They buy looking at studios and end up using 1 & 2 BR in many cases. The economics are MUCH different for a 1 BR than a studio, 3 BR in general, and less so for a 2 BR compared to 2 studios.

 

[DVCcurious]

You started out with the idea that it's all or nothing with buying DVC vs not at all, IMO that is far from accurate in that one can buy off property, one can buy some DVC points and do some one and some off, one can own RCI and try to trade in, one can buy for all stays at a lessor resort or for all stays at a more expensive resort and all type of variations and combinations.

I think it's a given that the following statements are true:

Buying DVC is a bad idea IF:
you would consider staying offsite
you would consider staying at a value
you would consider staying at a moderate
you would consider staying at a Downtown Disney hotel

Buying DVC may be a good idea if, and only if:
you will only stay at Deluxe resorts at WDW at least every other year.

So you're right, but I assumed everyone already agreed on that point. It's kinda like debating whether to buy a Toyota or a Honda and someone says "you could also save money riding the bus everywhere and not buying a car at all". Yes it's true, but it's kinda irrelevant to the discussion.

 

[sleepydog25]

That's quite a set of restrictions but it's found money. I'm assuming there's no time restriction and that it covers the spouse since I believe the patterns will be different in 3-4 years than now for the reasons I've stated. How about an either or, 3 days or more in Dec or 5 days in a row any time since the statement that one would never be able to get in there period.

Just enjoying the tete a tete overall, but as an "added bonus" (as TV barkers incorrectly proclaim), I'll say that we just got three days at VGF LV studio six months out.

 

[Johnny D]

Kind of proves my point. A resort 35% sold out and declaring 75% available to members, and one is excited about booking 3 days at the one of the 2 slowest times in Disney..September. The other being January after marathon weekend. congrats on your booking. It's only going to get tougher!

 

[disneynutz]

Kind of proves my point. A resort 35% sold out and declaring 75% available to members, and one is excited about booking 3 days at the one of the 2 slowest times in Disney..September. The other being January after marathon weekend. congrats on your booking. It's only going to get tougher!

No matter which resort, booking 3 days has a better chance of success then 5 or 7 or 10. Split stays when you want to use them are great but not so much when you don't want a split stay and you have no other choice.

I have a real problem with the term "slow times" DVC is expected to have 98% occupancy all year and what was slower before won't last year to year. Disney has spent billions of dollars to increase attendance, the hard ticket events are increasing in length, and it seems like there are runs or marathons several time per year.

At one point there wasn't a food and wine or a flower and garden now there is. Owners have to project 10, 20, 30, or more years ahead and who knows what Disney will come up with to fill the place.

Bill

 

[sleepydog25]

Kind of proves my point. A resort 35% sold out and declaring 75% available to members, and one is excited about booking 3 days at the one of the 2 slowest times in Disney..September. The other being January after marathon weekend. congrats on your booking. It's only going to get tougher!

". . .it still seems almost impossible at 7 months." Your quote. There are a few resorts where it's "almost impossible" to book at 7 months out at various times through the year. Granted, at VGF seven months could be more difficult throughout the year, but that's a choice many of us are more than happy to make since VGF doesn't appeal to us on most levels, just as VWL carries little appeal to those who must have a monorail resort.

We had seen a model, thought it looked nice, and figured one day we'd book there. We tried, got it, easy peasy.

 

[chukdotcom]

No matter which resort, booking 3 days has a better chance of success then 5 or 7 or 10. Split stays when you want to use them are great but not so much when you don't want a split stay and you have no other choice.

I have a real problem with the term "slow times" DVC is expected to have 98% occupancy all year and what was slower before won't last year to year. Disney has spent billions of dollars to increase attendance, the hard ticket events are increasing in length, and it seems like there are runs or marathons several time per year.

At one point there wasn't a food and wine or a flower and garden now there is. Owners have to project 10, 20, 30, or more years ahead and who knows what Disney will come up with to fill the place.

Bill

Does that 98% number represent total points outstanding? I'm curious how many outstanding points go unused in a given year. 10%?

 

[Dean]

I think it's a given that the following statements are true:

Buying DVC is a bad idea IF:
you would consider staying offsite
you would consider staying at a value
you would consider staying at a moderate
you would consider staying at a Downtown Disney hotel

Buying DVC may be a good idea if, and only if:
you will only stay at Deluxe resorts at WDW at least every other year.

So you're right, but I assumed everyone already agreed on that point. It's kinda like debating whether to buy a Toyota or a Honda and someone says "you could also save money riding the bus everywhere and not buying a car at all". Yes it's true, but it's kinda irrelevant to the discussion.

Specific to VGF I'd agree with your list though I don't think it's that restrictive for buying DVC in general, esp for resale. I know many who swing both ways, myself included.

Just enjoying the tete a tete overall, but as an "added bonus" (as TV barkers incorrectly proclaim), I'll say that we just got three days at VGF LV studio six months out.

But wasn't it stated previously in this thread by at least 2 people that one would never get VGF at 7 months ever with NO qualifications of LOS, season, etc.

Kind of proves my point. A resort 35% sold out and declaring 75% available to members, and one is excited about booking 3 days at the one of the 2 slowest times in Disney..September. The other being January after marathon weekend. congrats on your booking. It's only going to get tougher!

IMO it will get easier not more difficult as the masses have a chance to try the resort but we'll see.

Does that 98% number represent total points outstanding? I'm curious how many outstanding points go unused in a given year. 10%?

DVD holds between 2 & 4% which they've never stated their intent on. Theoretically it would be used mainly for maint, esp at 1-2%. They also sell the points based on the lower totals for lockoffs so every lockoff where the smaller components are reserved separately increases the reserve. Also, points traded or used for exchanges have the potential for giving a surplus, esp for cash type exchanges.

 

[BenDiscipio]

No, Dean, it was said that when it is sold, you won't be able to get studios at VGF....I'll stand by that....but I agree there are a few slow periods where you could creep in, but honestly, that isn't availability....most people don't have so much flexibility with the vacationing....

As to your thesis on why people disagree with you and what the "need to learn"....lol....not your words, but the obvious inference....you talk about them making assumptions that are wrong, etc....

I will point out that that goes both ways. I happen to think, critically so, that your assumptions are wrong....but it won't be possible to show you empirically for a few years, so I'll table this until we get there...until then, you have all the answers, don't you? Yours are right and theirs are wrong....

I'll say this....as an experiment, why not prove your point, take 150 of your points and yearly plan a vacation to a VGF studio...if not in reality, do it virtually....and not always during the middle of september of January.....

Let's see where that gets you and compare notes. In the meantime, I will be staying there every year....without the hassle and worry of uncertain vacation situations...

You apparently have a lot of friends that pay for premium and accept lower level product on a frequent basis....per P.T. Barnum, there's no accounting for that percentage of the population....but your diatribes are intended to "educate" and that percentage of the population wouldn't be reading your "education" in the first place....

For the life of me, I can't imagine someone even unwittingly paying for the regular use of a mercedes, but occasionally trading for a honda to "change things up"....lol