What you fail to realize is that the post and grammar in question ... taken out of context....fail to properly place the "future"....but in context, where we were discussing several years down the road. I think I've most often discussed 3 years....it becomes much clearer. And yes, I stated that I've been checking, past tense....and I will tell you that in any in demand
DVC time, there is virtually NO availability in VGF studios at 7 months, beyond a day here or there....usually it is blanket no availability. That is a fact.
As for Gray52, try to book a studio at VGF with your $55 points....I'd love to hear about your exploits. It's 35% sold and 75% available right now, but even with that you're going to have a hard time. Fast forward to 90% sold and you will be out of luck....a poor puppy pressed against the window.
And comparing the Grand to the Contemporary is comical. The contemporary has always been the black sheep of the family for deluxe Monorail resorts....the last alternative if you couldn't book the Grand or the Poly. Everyone knows that. It's always the one that has availability when the others are banged out. It's the lower priced entree into the monorail resorts. Furthermore, it's a much bigger DVC resort, hence greater availability (but then again, ALL DVC properties are bigger than VGF). Let's be honest...the contemporary is 70's architecture that most people would like to forget...do you see anyone planning buildings with that architecture anymore? Even for nostalgia? The only selling point for BLT is the walk to MK.
As for your litanies of "it's a fact". Well....the truth is that it isn't yet a fact, is it? It's a theory. However, the theory of supply and demand, a much more tried and true theory (as theories go), seems to run in the face of yours....don't you think? Your "fact" theories are based on the fact that, using other, lesser valued DVC resorts as examples, it has happened. But here's a fact for you. DVC, until now, had yet to have a DVC at one of its premier properties, Grand or Poly. That's gonna play with your "facts" a little....watch and see. Get back to me in 3 years with Dean and tell me how you're doing planning your VGF week vacation...especially at a studio. I'll be waiting with bated breath....lol.
Here's another fact for you. DVC owners have historically lived to "trade up" their points to the highest DVC level. You see this clearly by the fact that OKW and SSR are ALWAYS available...as are AKL (unfortunately for AKL owners....product of a DVC that is too big, spread out, and far from the preferred WDW parks. Most people buying SSR, or VB on the cheap are doing so with the hope of "trading up" to a more desirable DVC. The top of that food chain right now and the smallest of all the DVC's is VGF.
I'll go back to my car analogy. Say you're part of a car club where you use points to rent a car for a period of time every now and then when you need it. You bought into Honda points, but have routinely exchanged that for Toyotas, Fords, Dodges, heck, even a Mitsubishi once...then the car club decides to offer points in Mercedes....your contention is that Mercedes points are going to be traded for Toyotas, fords, etc....and your Honda points are going to be able to get Mercedes points just like you could Toyota points. Kind of hard to believe, don't you think? Why would the mercedes points owner want to drive a honda, or toyota? It would have to be a pretty darned good reason, don't you think?
Likewise, I think you'll find that VGF points will be used for VGF in a much higher percentage of instances than has happened with any other DVC in the past. Once Poly opens, I can see that pulling some VGF points....but one would have to be a fool to use VGF points for other DVC properties unless they couldn't get into VGF, which I can see being a possibility. Perhaps a less than astute owner might trade into an epcot resort for F&W but other than that, not a lot of appeal. Part of the problem is going to be that there will be an inordinate number of owners who bought VGF with the intention of staying in a studio there, because of the high point cost....it's going to be very tough for VGF owners to get studios once we're closer to sellout. Watch and see....It'll be a concern for a number of VGF owners.