Monthly Update!
Total points recorded as of September 30th:
~486k points (14.9% of all points).
Points recorded in August:
~31.6k points.
September sales continued the trend downward, with 3 consecutive decreases of 40-45% compared to prior month. This obviously isn't sustainable and there are likely multiple factors, top of which is that the resort isn't open yet and it's sight-unseen to all buyers. September also had an incentives change, which likely contributed to a stall in sales in early September.
At the current rate, VDH will sell out in a whopping 87-88 month, roughly late 2030 or early 2031!
But the incentives that were released were worse than the summer incentives, so there's clearly some comfort from Disney in the current sales velocity.
As I've detailed in the past, there is a potential rationale for keeping this sluggish sales pace: they already booked the rooms on cash and can't add inventory via declarations before 2024.
Currently ~22.3% of points are declared and at least ~15% of the resort has been sold. That leaves just ~7.3% of headroom, roughly 240k points, before more Units must be declared. At the current sales rate of ~7.5k/wk, that's just 31-32 weeks from the end of September, which works out to Apr/May 2024, but without any sales spike from the resort opening and the (so far positive) reviews influencing buyers.
My thinking here could be completely unfounded, but considering they started renting rooms on cash prior to any sales starting, they may have heavily relied on their sales forecasts to determine how much inventory they could rent. That forecast is in the POS and it's the current level of declarations, 'just' 22.3% of points.
My guess? The inventory they allotted to cash rentals was conservative and they left plenty of buffer for solid sales, making being correct in their prediction insignificant and we will see more declarations before Jan 1, 2024. Magical Beginnings might also be used to help stabilize the situation (maybe?).
Fun facts about September's sales:
Nothing remarkable about mega-contracts, just one 1000pt contract at the top of the pile.
Unit 1E, in just its second month, is the leading Unit assigned, roughly double 2nd most (2A).
There weren't any 'odd' points contracts that could have been Favorite Weeks, though it's possible I'm overcorrecting some of the tax values posted. If anyone wants me to explain this, I can, but it's very inside baseball for this.
It is likely that Unit 1B has sold out as it was last recorded August 3rd. We're also getting close to selling out some other Units: 1C, 1D, 1F, 1G, 1H, and maybe 1J. We still haven't seen 1A or 1I (one eye) show up in any recorded deeds yet. I'm also not sure how many Units are in Phase 2, but we've only seen Unit 2A from Phase 2 so far.
Other interesting facts about the contracts recorded in August:
- 211 contracts recorded
- 72x 150pt contracts (114 the prior month)
- 30x 50pt contracts (55 the prior month)
- 27x 200pt contracts (40 the prior month)
- 21x 100pt contracts (21 the prior month)
- 13x 75pt contracts (24 the prior month)
- 13x 250pt contracts (17 the prior month)
- 35x other contracts (67 the prior month)
- 149.8pt average contract size in August
- May had an average of 128.2pt
- June had an average of 142.8pt
- July had an average of 157.2pt
- August had an average of 152.7pt
- 1,000pt is largest contract in September
- 50pt is smallest contract
- 500pt is the largest contract size purchased multiple times (2x)
- Unit 1E was assigned the most (14.4k, 2nd most was 2A at 7.5k)
Points recorded by date:
"1U" unit stands for "Phase 1 - Unknown". This is because OCRW recorded a Unit number with an error and no 'most likely' correct fix. This is most likely due to issues with OCR (optical character recognition) used in their recording process.
Points recorded by month:
