Monthly Update!
Total points recorded as of August 31st:
~455k points (13.96% of all points).
Points recorded in August:
~51.6k points.
August sales continued the trend downward from July. I wouldn't describe this as strong sales, at all. At the current rate of sales (51.6k/month), VDH will sell out in 54-55 months, or 4yrs and 6-7 months, roughly Mar/Apr 2028.
The incentives that are released tomorrow will be a strong indicator of whether Disney is interested in pushing sales up or if they're content with this sales pace.
As I detailed last month, there is a potential rationale for keeping this sales pace: they already booked the rooms on cash and can't add inventory via declarations before 2024.
Currently ~22.3% of points are declared and at least ~14% of the resort has been sold. That leaves just ~8.3% of headroom, roughly 270k points, before more Units must be declared. At the current sales rate of ~12k/wk, that's just 22 weeks from the end of August, which we'll hit roughly late Jan/early Feb 2024. This is a potentially unsafe buffer for any sort of holiday sales spike.
My thinking here could be completely unfounded, but considering they started renting rooms on cash prior to any sales starting, they may have heavily relied on their sales forecasts to determine how much inventory they could rent. That forecast is in the POS and it's the current level of declarations.
What does this mean for potential buyers? We may not see improved incentives tomorrow or even later this year.
My guess? The inventory they allotted to cash rentals was conservative and they left plenty of buffer for solid sales, making being correct in their prediction insignificant and we will see more declarations before Jan 1, 2024. Magical Beginnings might also be used to help stabilize the situation (maybe?).
Fun facts about August's sales:
Nothing remarkable about mega-contracts, just one 1000pt contract at the top of the pile.
Unit 1E showed up for the first time!
There were a few 'odd' points contracts that could have been Favorite Weeks:
- 2x 207-208pt contracts that could be FW Deluxe Studio Preferred Views W23-32
- 1x 480pt contract that could be FW 2-Bedroom W11
It is likely that Unit 1B has sold out as it was last recorded August 3rd. We're also getting close to selling out some other Units: 1C, 1D, 1F, 1G, and 1H. We still haven't seen 1A or 1I (one eye) show up in any recorded deeds yet. I'm also not sure how many Units are in Phase 2, but we've only seen Unit 2A from Phase 2 so far. I've been procrastinating on getting the 2nd declaration documents, but I'll work on that.
Other interesting facts about the contracts recorded in August:
- 338 contracts recorded
- 114x 150pt contracts (193 the prior month)
- 55x 50pt contracts (84 the prior month)
- 40x 200pt contracts (66 the prior month)
- 24x 75pt contracts (57 the prior month)
- 21x 100pt contracts (39 the prior month)
- 17x 250pt contracts (30 the prior month)
- 15x 300pt contracts (13 the prior month)
- 8x 60pt contracts (10 the prior month)
- 44x other contracts (107 the prior month)
- 152.7pt average contract size in August
- May had an average of 128.2pt
- June had an average of 142.8pt
- July had an average of 157.2pt
- 1,000pt is largest contract in August
- 50pt is smallest contract
- 500pt is the largest contract size purchased multiple times (2x)
- Unit 2A was assigned the most (18k, 2nd most was 1G at 9.6k)
Points recorded by date:
"1U" unit stands for "Phase 1 - Unknown". This is because OCRW recorded a Unit number with an error and no 'most likely' correct fix. This is most likely due to issues with OCR (optical character recognition) used in their recording process.
Points recorded by month:
And a histogram showing that the contracts are continuing to skew larger as time passes (though August lacked mega contracts compared to July):
