VDH Unit and Sales Tracker

[Jwaire]

Just go look at the TAT amounts for 2-bedroom units and maybe that would snap you out of it

Yeah, the TAT pretty much stopped me in my tracks back in the Spring. I was going to add on at least 50, if not 75, points.

I have concerns about the long-term rental value of VDH too. I'm not a big renter, but I like having the option. I have feeling once the dust settles and renters learn, they're not going to want to rent somewhere where they have to pay a large tax at the end of their stay.

 

[AstroBlasters]

I’ll be staying in a 1BD for 2 nights the first weekend in Jan (Magic Keys are not blocked and it’s still decorated for Christmas ) and the tax is roughly $103 a night.

However the points per night is 37 points vs VGC at 76 points.

I will happily pay the tax and use points at VDH that weekend over VGC.

 

[Jwaire]

I’ll be staying in a 1BD for 2 nights the first weekend in Jan (Magic Keys are not blocked and it’s still decorated for Christmas ) and the tax is roughly $103 a night.

However the points per night is 37 points vs VGC at 76 points.

I will happily pay the tax and use points at VDH that weekend over VGC.

That's a cherrypicked weekend though. It's not like there's a big difference between the two points charts most of the year and GCV hasn't been converted over to the new 7 seasons point chart yet.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

Yeah, the TAT pretty much stopped me in my tracks back in the Spring. I was going to add on at least 50, if not 75, points.

I have concerns about the long-term rental value of VDH too. I'm not a big renter, but I like having the option. I have feeling once the dust settles and renters learn, they're not going to want to rent somewhere where they have to pay a large tax at the end of their stay.

I think VDH can be still be a solid choice depending on the room type and season. A Duo or SV Deluxe is not bad at all.

I’ll be staying in a 1BD for 2 nights the first weekend in Jan (Magic Keys are not blocked and it’s still decorated for Christmas ) and the tax is roughly $103 a night.

However the points per night is 37 points vs VGC at 76 points.

I will happily pay the tax and use points at VDH that weekend over VGC.

I think you raise a great point that not many has brought up, which is the points chart disparity between VDH and VGC. VDH is based on 7 seasons like the rest of WDW resorts while VGC is still based on 4. Months like late August and early January is crazy high at VGC and very low at VDH but some other months are flipped. Strange if you ask me considering demand for Disneyland should be the same for both resorts?

 

[HIRyeDVC]

That's a cherrypicked weekend though. It's not like there's a big difference between the two points charts most of the year and GCV hasn't been converted over to the new 7 seasons point chart yet.

You think VGC will adapt to 7 seasons? How about Aulani?

 

[AstroBlasters]

That's a cherrypicked weekend though. It's not like there's a big difference between the two points charts most of the year and GCV hasn't been converted over to the new 7 seasons point chart yet.

I will agree that it is cherry picked, but as a Magic Key holder who has school aged children and does not live within driving distance I have limited windows when we can travel.

That exact weekend is the only time we could make it when the MK’s are not blocked out during Christmas decorations. If my only DVC option was VGC then I either would not go or we would have to stay offsite.

Being able to book a VDH room during their lowest point season was a huge benefit to us and made the trip feasible (still have to pay for airfare, food, etc).

 

[AstroBlasters]

I think VDH can be still be a solid choice depending on the room type and season. A Duo or SV Deluxe is not bad at all.

I think you raise a great point that not many has brought up, which is the points chart disparity between VDH and VGC. VDH is based on 7 seasons like the rest of WDW resorts while VGC is still based on 4. Months like late August and early January is crazy high at VGC and very low at VDH but some other months are flipped. Strange if you ask me considering demand for Disneyland should be the same for both resorts?

Based on our travel schedules:

Early Jan: VDH
Spring Break: VGC
Late August: VDH or Aulani
Mid-October: VGC or Aulani

 

[Chili327]

Based on our travel schedules:

Early Jan: VDH
Spring Break: VGC
Late August: VDH or Aulani
Mid-October: VGC or Aulani

I guess i'll have to keep an eye on the charts, down the road...

My only travel times are Oct thru Feb. So VGC & Aulani in the Fall sounds amazing, and since VDH has restrictions I can't really ever stay there, so I guess I'll have to settle for WDW in Jan/Fab. (i hear it can be a great time to be there)
Not that any of this means anything to anyone, but I like that someone did the math, & part of it fits my schedule too.

 

[AstroBlasters]

I guess i'll have to keep an eye on the charts, down the road...

My only travel times are Oct thru Feb. So VGC & Aulani in the Fall sounds amazing, and since VDH has restrictions I can't really ever stay there, so I guess I'll have to settle for WDW in Jan/Fab. (i hear it can be a great time to be there)
Not that any of this means anything to anyone, but I like that someone did the math, & part of it fits my schedule too.

I added on some direct Aulani points earlier in the year when I had a resale contract fall through and was within the 7m window of needing points (flights for my family and in-laws already booked) and part of what made me comfortable with the purchase (since resale Aulani is a bargain comparatively) was that I could try and use them at VDH.

Lo and behold a year later and I was able to use my Aulani points at VDH in Jan and for ~45% less points (including tax) than VGC.

 

[DonMacGregor]

You think VGC will adapt to 7 seasons? How about Aulani?

C'mon. You know Hawaii only has one, 12-month long season...LOL

 

[Jwaire]

C'mon. You know Hawaii only has one, 12-month long season...LOL

Paradise?

 

[Jwaire]

You think VGC will adapt to 7 seasons? How about Aulani?

Probably, but no idea when. I thought @Sandisw mentioned in another thread they just completed a multi-year assessment regarding this, but maybe I'm dreaming that up.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

C'mon. You know Hawaii only has one, 12-month long season...LOL

Come on! We get pumpkin spiced lattes in October too!

 

[DonMacGregor]

Paradise?

I have literally been to the islands in every month of the year over the past four decades, and I haven't found a bad time yet. The trades seem to stop blowing more often in September and October, but it's rare and short-lived.

 

[Chili327]

I added on some direct Aulani points earlier in the year when I had a resale contract fall through and was within the 7m window of needing points (flights for my family and in-laws already booked) and part of what made me comfortable with the purchase (since resale Aulani is a bargain comparatively) was that I could try and use them at VDH.

Lo and behold a year later and I was able to use my Aulani points at VDH in Jan and for ~45% less points (including tax) than VGC.

Aulani is next on my list... (possibly bigger & subsidized), but now that you mention it, direct (and smaller) wouldn't be the end of the world since I could use them at VDH.

 

[Chili327]

I have literally been to the islands in every month of the year over the past four decades, and I haven't found a bad time yet. The trades seem to stop blowing more often in September and October, but it's rare and short-lived.

Every month for 4 decades??
You might as well live there. lol

 

[DonMacGregor]

Every month for 4 decades??
You might as well live there. lol

Over the past 4 decades, I've managed to visit the islands at least once in each month of the year. Probably made 30 trips though, sometimes twice in a single year.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

Over the past 4 decades, I've managed to visit the islands at least once in each month of the year. Probably made 30 trips though, sometimes twice in a single year.

Who cares about Hawaii! When you have that animated monorail in your signature block! How?!

 

[DonMacGregor]

Who cares about Hawaii! When you have that animated monorail in your signature block! How?!

Exactly.

 

[ehh]

Weekly update!

Total points recorded to date: ~491k points (15.1%)
Total points declared to date: ~727k points (22.3%)
Points recorded last week (October 1 - 7): 4.9k points
Sell out date based on last week's rate of recorded points: September 2034 (lol)
Last 4 weeks: ~29.0k points
Rolling 4 week average: ~7.25k points/wk
Sell out date based on last 4 weeks' rate of recorded points: Jan/Feb 2031

New lowest sales week ever! Also the 3rd lowest pts/contract week ever.

For context, there have been 33 days since contracts started showing up that had more points recorded than all of last week.

Contracts recorded last week were likely mostly purchased between Sept 16 and Sept 25, right before opening. This is, logically, a dead week! Just wait a few days and you get way more information about whether or not you'll like the resort. Contracts from post-opening will start showing up in a week or two.

It's likely I will switch to monthly and ad hoc updates after the post-opening contracts start showing up.

Other interesting facts about the contracts recorded last week:

• 38 contracts recorded, a new low
  • 17x 150pt contracts
  • 7x 50pt contracts
  • 3x 100pt contracts
  • 3x 200pt contracts
  • 8x other contracts
• 127.9pt average contract size last week
  • Week one was 124.6pt average
  • Week two was 130.9pt average
  • Week three was 132.5pt average
  • Week four was 108.1pt average
  • Week five was 143.0pt average
  • Week six was 146.6pt average
  • Week seven was 150.4pt average
  • Week eight was 165.5pt average
  • Week nine was 158.9pt average
  • Week ten was 169.2pt average
  • Week eleven was 153.6pt average
  • Week twelve was 161.4pt average
  • Week thirteen was 133.1pt average
  • Week fourteen was 163.1pt average
  • Week fifteen was 139.9pt average
  • Week sixteen was 161.1pt average
  • Week seventeen was 139.2pt average
  • Week eighteen was 160.5pt average
  • Week nineteen was 144.4pt average
  • Week twenty was 160.3pt average
• 250pt is largest contract
• 50pt is smallest contract
• 200pt is the largest contract size purchased multiple times (3x)
• Unit 1E was assigned the most (2.7k, 2nd most was 2A at 750)
  • 1B remains dormant, essentially sold out
  • We are on sell-out watch for additional Units: 1C, 1D, 1F, 1H
    • All of these Units are at fewer than 10k available points, most even less than that

Unit/date breakdown:

"1U" unit stands for "Phase 1 - Unknown". This is because OCRW recorded a Unit number with an error and no 'most likely' correct fix. This is most likely due to issues with OCR (optical character recognition) used in their recording process.