Value question

[chunks]

I am looking to buy DVC and interested in the economics/value of it all and making sure I am looking at it with the right perspective.

I have a small child and my wife is a school teacher. Thus, it is likely that most of my disney vacations would be during the "Dream" or "Magic" Season (i.e. during the summer). In addition, it is unlikely that I would be taking weekend trips (given the smallness of my child and potential future small children).

Thus, in looking at the "predicted availability" charts during the Dream or Magic Season, it seems like the way to go is to buy at Saratoga Springs and then use whereever I want.

For example, if I want to stay at BLT, I likely wont get a standard view studio at the 7-month window in August, but I could get a Lakeview studio and the amount of points for a week during the Dream Season is 123 for standard and 141 for lakeview. If I can buy SSR points at $100/pt and BLT is $140/pt. That means I would spend $17,220 for the points needed for standard view (i.e. if I bought BLT pts) and $14,100 for the points needed for a BLT lake view (i.e. if I bought SSR pts), for a difference of about $3,100. The dues for the extra pts at SSR would be $115 per year (18*6.4). Thus, assuming dues grow at 3% (its probably slightly higher but whatever), it would take me 20 years of dues before I "recoup" the extra purchase price for the BLT points. This also doesnt take into account the fact that if I was to buy at BLT, I may not book at the 11-month window every time and thus may not get the standard view, thus limiting the value of the points. Also, if I decide that 1BR is the way to go, then the award chart opens up even more.

Thus, my conclusion is that if I am most interested in staying at BLT (and if you ran the #s on a lot of other locations as well) during the summer, buying SSR points will get me the most value as the resort is pretty wide open at 7 months during the summer at the Lake View level.

I dont think this would hold true if I visited during Oct-Dec (as the availability charts for studios show pretty much no availability). Further, there are a few resorts (namely AKL) where there is some great value in the low point cost rooms and the cost to buy isnt that far off from SSR. For example, if I was able to get value studios at AKL (which obviously isnt guaranteed and is tough to get) with AKL points but only standard studios at 7-months, then there could be significantly more value in AKL points, even after taking into account the higher dues.

This is a pretty wonky post at this point, but please let me know how my thinking is off as I want to make sure I have all of the facts/scenarios down before I spend $20K on future vacations!

 

[jerseyduke]

One big tipping point for me was how well DVC holds its value. Yes, you could be plop down 20K, and it could end up being the wrong decision for you. If that does turn out to be the case, you can pretty much bank on reselling the contract you just purchased for right about the same price. You would lose commissions on the sale, and some closing costs, so maybe 2500$. You would pay annual dues, say for a year, 1000. You are "out" 3500. BUT, you did get accommodations for a vacation, so your net loss is kind of small if you deduct that.

That being said, the general consensus is buy where you want to stay, or at least would be happy staying. If you wanted to stay at BLT, but "had to" stay at Saratoga, how would you feel?

October - December, particularly December, 11 month window is CRUCIAL.

Your travel schedule seems kind of inflexible(understandable with wife being a teacher), which is worrisome to me with regard to your thought of using SSR points.

Your value analysis is fine, it just does not assign a value to staying at BLT..how much is that worth.

Also, the SSR school of thought works better if you are willing to stay at various places and splitting you stay. Can you do 3 days at Boardwalk and 4 at Animal Kingdom? If so, then SSR becomes more appealing.

It can be a hard decision, which is exactly why my first paragraph was the tipping point for me - I really only felt like I was risking a few thousand - not that I want to lose a few K - but it wouldnt have put me out on the streets had that happened.

 

[skippytx]

a few comments

1) Focusing on the buy in cost of a resort in my opinion is missing the forest for the trees as they say. There is so many costs involved with a WDW vacation, that I personally believe the initial buy in isn't that big of a factor. For example, the cost of airfare and tickets for our next trip is 3500 dollars. That's 4 plane tickets (1200) and 4 7 day park hoppers (2300ish). That's just 1 trip (We've been 5 times so far). I'll easily spend another 1500 while we're there. 5K before I even think about the cost of DVC, dues, or anything else.

115 dollars in extra dues, or a few thousand in buy in costs over the projected length of ownership is somewhere between a rounding error and a small percentage of your overall costs. There's a reason everyone says "buy where you want to stay"

2) Standard view at BLT and other low point cost rooms are tough to get any time of the year, especially if you're trying to book an entire week after the 11 month window has passed. It can be done, but it's tough. For BLT I would plan on buying enough points to get a lake view room you want, and if you do get the standard view consider it a bonus and use the extra points to stay an extra night. I've been really lucky getting BLT standard rooms so far, but I know it's never a sure thing.

3) With young kids the BLT location can't be beat. Being able to walk back to the room from MK is so worth it. I went through the same SSR vs BLT decision a couple years ago and spent the extra on BLT. Zero regrets. I was just at SSR for 6 days in Feb (scheduled an adults only trip at 4 months and thats all I could get) and it's a great resort, but I'm 10000% happy BLT is my home. I don't even think about the extra 5K.

4) Nothing about Disney makes financial sense. Trying to rationalize things is just a pointless exercise that might make you feel better about dropping 20K on a timeshare purchase.

5) I'd do it all again and enjoy our DVC membership. Focusing on the economics and value of it though just doesn't make sense. Focus on the trips you get to take,the memories you'll make, and the time you'll get to spend with your family at the happiest place on earth. DVC isn't for everyone though. I've talked several family members out of it so far. If you're fine staying in Value or Moderate resort rooms and only go every couple years DVC makes no sense.

 

[chunks]

Thanks for the reply. I agree on your "you only lose a few K" thought if you resell. I didnt mean to imply that I would lose $20K, just that I was making a big "investment" and wanted to make sure I was thinking about it correctly.

I am willing to stay at various places and that is something I hadnt taken into account so appreciate the feedback.

I am fine with staying at SSR if necessary.

One follow-up, what do you mean when you say that my travel schedule being inflexible is a problem with my SSR strat? Are you saying that I need more flexibility overall to make DVC work or I need more flexibility to make buying at SSR to stay at other places work? The linchpin of my approach is that many resorts seem to have availability during the summer, and I am pretty flexible as to any time during the summer.

 

[CraigInPA]

Remember, the predicted availability charts (which are fabulous, BTW) are retrospective. They tell you what happened last year, not what's going to happen next year.

With the Riviera opening, and putting new members into the system, all of whom can move anywhere at 7 months, and the latest resale restrictions, which limit moving at 7 months to the legacy 14 resorts, there will be additional competition for that BLT room you're looking to book at 7 months.

If you don't mind staying at SSR or OKW, then certainly buy there. If you successfully swap into BLT at 7 months, great! But, if you're going to be stressed about whether you get BLT, or disappointed that you didn't get BLT, and don't especially want to stay at SSR, then you need to consider paying the premium for BLT points. My wife and I went through this a few years ago, and decided to spend the extra money on BLT.

 

[mustinjourney]

I'm usually one to say buy where you want to stay -- but if you're going solely in the Summer -- I would personally rather have more points to play with. The only way summer bookings become harder to get is if they do a point reallocation -- and it would likely have to be a fairly sizable reallocation to get people out of their current "fall frenzy" pattern.

Only issue is if you ever want to go during Xmas break -- if that is the case -- you'll likely be restricted to SSR.

With that said -- if you do ever want to go during a harder time period -- you could always transfer/rent BLT points from someone. It'll obviously cost you more -- but if it's a one time thing, it's an economical way to get what you want as opposed to buying more points.

Lastly -- if you're like the rest of us, as soon as you pass ROFR, you'll start imagining more trips and then you'll want to add-on (called add-onitis). If so, you could get a BLT contract for those harder to get times and use the SSR for the point heavy 1BR stays.

 

[jerseyduke]

One follow-up, what do you mean when you say that my travel schedule being inflexible is a problem with my SSR strat? Are you saying that I need more flexibility overall to make DVC work or I need more flexibility to make buying at SSR to stay at other places work? The linchpin of my approach is that many resorts seem to have availability during the summer, and I am pretty flexible as to any time during the summer.

No, your flexibility is not an issue with DVC in general. If you buy at SSR, you will always be able to get what you want 11 months out, and basically much closer. My point was that the more flexible your travel window is, the more appealing the 7 month point strategy becomes. You do have a good two month window and will probably be ok, just not as much so if you were in a position where you could really pick any week of the year. (You have an 8 week target window vs say a 40 week window)

All this being said, I do not use my DVC in the summer months, so others are much better sources for booking availability there.

 

[aoconnor]

Your analysis makes sense, with the caveat that you can't guarantee that summer availability at BLT will always be that way in the future. If there is another cheaper resort that you like more than SSR (maybe AKV or OKW) then I would buy there. That way you're still getting a good deal but you'll be happier in the event that you "have" to stay at your home resort for whatever reason.

As you mentioned, the difference in buy-in cost would be ~$3,000. While it's not a small amount of money, in the scheme of a decades long commitment and the overall cost of Disney vacations (flights, tickets, hotels, food) it's not huge either.

 

[chunks]

Thanks for the insights!

 

[Deb & Bill]

Studios are going to be harder to book at seven months out than one bedroom villas. Especially at the smaller resorts like BRV, CCV and GFV. Plan on at least a one bedroom villa for your stay and you might work out better at seven months out.

Remember, too, that time changes things. When we first bought 22 years ago, October was a very slow time of the year. The only really busy time was Christmas week and DVC held a lottery for those stays. They discontinued the lottery about the time they opened VWL (now BRV). Careers change, families change, life changes.

 

[CanadaDisney05]

Studios are going to be harder to book at seven months out than one bedroom villas. Especially at the smaller resorts like BRV, CCV and GFV. Plan on at least a one bedroom villa for your stay and you might work out better at seven months out.

In theory this makes sense, but to be fair, jumping from a studio to a one bedroom is not a small increase. Your talking about nearly double the investment. Maybe the advice should be to make sure you have enough points for the higher priced views (which is exactly what OP is contemplating).

Remember, too, that time changes things. When we first bought 22 years ago, October was a very slow time of the year. The only really busy time was Christmas week and DVC held a lottery for those stays. They discontinued the lottery about the time they opened VWL (now BRV). Careers change, families change, life changes.

Again, good advice.... one thing to keep in mind is that teaching is not a career many people change out of, atleast not where I am from. Decent pay, unbelievable benefits, defined benefit pension fund, 11 weeks annual vacation, etc....

 

[Deb & Bill]

...Again, good advice.... one thing to keep in mind is that teaching is not a career many people change out of, atleast not where I am from. Decent pay, unbelievable benefits, defined benefit pension fund, 11 weeks annual vacation, etc....

I taught elementary school for four years, went back and got an Engineering degree. Then taught another year when oil prices dropped to the floor and I was laid off of my Engineering job. I have no desire to ever teach again.

 

[ELMC]

Again, good advice.... one thing to keep in mind is that teaching is not a career many people change out of, atleast not where I am from. Decent pay, unbelievable benefits, defined benefit pension fund, 11 weeks annual vacation, etc....

This is in Canada, right? Because none of what you described really is relevant to teaching in the US anymore.

 

[CanadaDisney05]

This is in Canada, right? Because none of what you described really is relevant to teaching in the US anymore.

Possible that it is different. Here, available teaching jobs are very scarce. Most prospective teachers have to supply (be a substitute teacher) for 10ish years before they get a full-time gig.

 

[jerseyduke]

In theory this makes sense, but to be fair, jumping from a studio to a one bedroom is not a small increase. Your talking about nearly double the investment. Maybe the advice should be to make sure you have enough points for the higher priced views (which is exactly what OP is contemplating).

It should be noted that in smaller resorts, at certain times, even an upgraded view isn't enough.
VGF and CCV come to mind.

Want a studio at VGF, lakeview or standard first 2 weeks of december? Start walking early November, otherwise almost no chance. 8 am at the 11 month mark - no prayer!
Realize at the VGF there is at most 47 studios. Whatever day you are checking in, someone has to be checking out that exact day. That can literally bring it down to a handful of rooms for which you are competing. Going with everyone checking out either Sat or Sun would make it 23 rooms available for check in each day.

I had to buy an entirely different contract at a different resort for that time frame. Granted this is more of an edge case. I would imagine studios at BCV are tough at 11 months during F&W, and there is no 'upgraded' view.

More the exception than the rule, but it is something of which people should be aware.

If I were buying today (directly) with a studio in mind, I would buy a fixed week without question. that way its guaranteed. I can cancel it if I want and move it. Of course, buying resale, not really an option.

 

[CookieandOatmeal]

I teach HS so we have to travel according to my schedule. What I notice is that we really enjoy going during December and April school vacations because of the nicer weather that we experience during that time. Summer is brutal in terms of the humidity and not exactly our favorite time to go however if push comes to shove, we do go during the summer. We just make sure we go to the parks early/evening and do pool time during heat of the day. It may be hard to switch at the 7th month window for Dec and at times April.

 

[mustinjourney]

It should be noted that in smaller resorts, at certain times, even an upgraded view isn't enough.
VGF and CCV come to mind.

Want a studio at VGF, lakeview or standard first 2 weeks of december? Start walking early November, otherwise almost no chance. 8 am at the 11 month mark - no prayer!
Realize at the VGF there is at most 47 studios. Whatever day you are checking in, someone has to be checking out that exact day. That can literally bring it down to a handful of rooms for which you are competing. Going with everyone checking out either Sat or Sun would make it 23 rooms available for check in each day.

I had to buy an entirely different contract at a different resort for that time frame. Granted this is more of an edge case. I would imagine studios at BCV are tough at 11 months during F&W, and there is no 'upgraded' view.

More the exception than the rule, but it is something of which people should be aware.

If I were buying today (directly) with a studio in mind, I would buy a fixed week without question. that way its guaranteed. I can cancel it if I want and move it. Of course, buying resale, not really an option.

Getting a studio at BCV during F&W isn't nearly as hard as VGF studios. you definitely don't have to be on right at 8 am for BCV and walking is by no means necessary for F&W.

I have had some luck using the waitlist for Dec at VGF. I forgot to book at 11 months and was able to piece together a 7 night stay last year.