2022 Madison Marathon Prediction Game!
*Reverse Price is Right rules
Alright posters and lurkers, let's play a prediction game! It's one of my favorite things to do pre-race. It's also something I do with everyone else on their training plans. Go through the process on deciding race day goals and pacing strategies all based around a possible finish time. I want to hear from everyone. I'd like to hear your prediction for my upcoming Madison Marathon on November 13th, 2022. Please don't be concerned that your time prediction will have much of an impact on my chances. I could run really well, or I could crash and burn. Anything is possible. Here are some rules:
1) Predictions must be made after this post either in this journal, to me verbally, or on my Strava account.
2) Only one prediction per person.
3) Predictions must be in by Wednesday, November 9th, 2022 end of day (Central time zone).
4) Winner will be determined by whomever is closest to the final official race time (so not Garmin 26.22 mile time).
4b)
Yes "Reverse Price is Right" rules, which means you can go over on the time prediction and still win. But if you're under, then you can't win. Therefore if the final time is 3:20:00, then a time of 3:19:00 is ineligible to win, but a time of 3:20:30 is eligible to win. Don't guess too fast.
5) Predictions can be as close as you like to another person’s guess. So, if someone says 3:45:00, you can guess 3:45:01
6) A prediction must be in time. Thus, a guess of "you'll do your best" or something similar is appreciated but not valid.
7) The tie-breaker will be the person who guessed first. So, if the two closest predictions are 10 seconds off the real time (one person 10 seconds high and the other 10 seconds low), then the person who guessed first is determined to be the winner. *Not applicable for this game
8) In the event I don't finish, the race is cancelled, or I don't have an official time, then there will be no winner.
9) The winner receives a mystery item via email.
Helpful Data to Make a Guess
The weather is pretty far out, but it is likely to be cold. The long range on Weather Underground is showing historically cold temps.
View attachment 715849
Historically, I have done really well in cold weather races.
2015 South Shore HM - "30s" - PR by 4 min
2015 Last Call HM - "30s-40s" - PR by 7 min
2018 Disney 5k - WC 24 - PR
2018 Disney 10k - WC 30 - PR by 2 min
2018 Disney HM - WC 37 - PR by 7 min
2018 Disney M - WC 38 - 2 min away from PR after 3 previous events
2019 Madison HM - WC 33 - PR by 1.5 min
2021 Madison M - WC 26 - 2nd best (behind by 1:08)
Scanning through the rest of the races, they appear to be in the 40+ range. So I've got a good track record in cold races. Although a marathon is always a tough beast.
The course isn't easy per se.
Per Strava, the GAP is about 5-6 seconds. So the course will cost me about 2.5 minutes compared to a flat course. My normal GAP is 3-4 seconds, which means this route is also slightly harder than what I normally train on. But this year I added the Jack/Jill running route on my hard/long runs. That route has a GAP of 5 seconds, so I am better prepared than last year.
Last year's mile by mile GAP:
View attachment 715828
Based on a few runners, the mileage usually comes out to about 26.35-26.37 on GPS watches. So that'll add a little time if you're thinking in a min/mile basis.
From a training standpoint, this is the most running I've done since Lakefront 2016. This is also the longest running exclusive plan I've done ever (30 weeks). My total running volume in this training cycle for the last 13 weeks was second only to Lakefront 2016 (823 miles in 13 weeks prior vs estimated 745 miles). Prior to Lakefront 2017, I peaked at 9:03 hours of actual running (whereas the other numbers are the extrapolated equivalents). Prior to Dopey 2018, I peaked at 9:01 hours of actual running. This time I peaked at 9:17 hrs back in late August, and 8:41 hrs in mid-October (65 miles vs 64.4 miles). For last year's race, I did two weeks over 55 miles and 7.5 hrs. This year I did fourteen weeks. The other big difference between last year's training and this year's is the use of more easy/moderate days in the Canova plan than hard days like in Hansons. In the Hansons plan, there are the two mid-week hard days, and then the LR on the weekend. For the last ten weeks of the Canova plan, the focus was on quality more than quantity. So the hards were hard, but there were less of them. So some weeks had two hards, and some weeks only a had a single hard. Then the remainder of the time was filled with easy/moderate days depending on how I felt. So the volume was higher in this plan and the hard days were arguably harder at times, but there were less hard days.
Fitness wise, my HRvPace graph suggests that I am in near peak physical shape when compared to Dopey 2018. Although there is still time for this data to change before race day.
View attachment 715843
I do question whether the HRvPace relationship is better for this training cycle because of the Canova training cycle having less hard days. With less frequent hard days, my body can recover between bouts of exercise better. With better recovery comes a lower HR? Maybe? I don't have data one way or the other to say definitively. I do know that if I follow a hard day with two consecutive easy days, that the second easy day will have a lower HR by as much as 5-6 bpm despite being the same pace under similar conditions. If this graph is useable, then I'm getting the following projections:
View attachment 715845
Agains these could change as I gather the last of the three weeks prior to race day data. But looking at past races, I've converted my trendline HR into a pace as high as 146 bpm (Dopey 2017 and Lake 2017 (PR)) and as low as Non-Cancelled 2021 at 139 bpm. So I see this information as giving me a ceiling/floor type window. This data would suggest that 3:01:57 is my current predicted ceiling, and 3:17:47 is my current predicted floor. But that's only if this HRvPace data is good when using the Canova training style because I've used Hansons almost exclusively for other races. If I convert similarly to last year's race, then that is a 3:08:06. My current PR is 3:14:05 from Lakefront 2017.
We can also look at that recent Marathon Taper paper we reviewed (
The Marathon Taper). In it we saw the Finish Time Efficiency % using the 10k fitness level relative to the final marathon pace. We saw the correlation of different taper methods in their analysis, but I also looked at my previous marathon race experience to see the correlation of taper methods. In the six non-Dopey with a HM marathons, I converted in the following:
View attachment 715847
If we assume I'm in 39:55 10k shape like I was during Dopey 2018 (plausible given the HRvPace data, but certainly not definitive), then the %FTE of the 3 week relaxed and 4 week strict (brackets the 3 week strict that I am doing) would be a predicted range of 3:02:39 to 3:04:39. But that's only if I'm actually in 6:25 min/mile 10k pace. I have no clue since I haven't raced during this time period. I converted at 90.8% last year, and that would be a 3:05:17.
From a what did I do in training standpoint, I've got a few runs to highlight:
The Canova 120 on 10/2/22 is the biggie. T+D was 96-105 during the run. I did it on the Jack/Jill course. I had two easy days leading into it, coming off a moderate day three days out and the last hard run was the Tuesday vs the Sunday run. I did 16.57 miles at 7:14 pace. The pace was deadly consistent throughout the run with 5 mile splits at 7:15, 7:13, 7:13. Admittedly I was tired at the end of it. Not sure how much longer I could have kept that up. It ended up being the 3rd fastest official HM (1:34:00) and fourth fastest 13.11 mile split I've done. The 16.57 miles at 7:14 was pretty much the fastest I've ever covered that distance.
The Canova Special Marathon Block on 10/16/22. T+D was in the 70s. It was two matching workouts of 35 min at 85% M Tempo + 35 min at 100% M Tempo. Both ended up with the 100% M Tempo in the 7:02-7:08 min/mile range and the overall run averages were 7:26 min/mile for 9.5 miles and 7:23 min/mile for 9.5 miles.
There were a few other marathon type runs and they usually hovered in the 7:02-7:10 range. Key difference between this year and last year was that the HR during these training runs this year has been in the 143-146 bpm range whereas last year's M Tempo runs were in the 146-153 range (most in 148-149 range) despite similar paces (if anything last year's M Tempos were slightly slower). So the HR is lower at the same pace, but is that a function of the training going on around it or indicative of a higher fitness level this year?
From a health standpoint, I feel relatively good. Maybe the best in a good bit. Hamstrings are good. Ankles feel decent. I'm not really monitoring anything at the moment, which is a nice feeling. I've only got one moderately challenging workout left.
Alright, that's all I can think of. Feel free to ask questions if you want more information for a guess. Best of luck to everyone who decides to play! I'll keep tabs on the names and links to their guesses in this thread below here. Remember, don't guess too fast or you lose.
Current Guesses
3:04:59 -
@Herding_Cats
3:07:23 -
@RuntheMouse
3:08:38 -
@azrivest
3:09:02 -
@striker1064
3:09:06 - Mom
3:09:12 -
@JAMIESMITH
3:10:00 -
@SheHulk
3:10:30 -
@NYC_MW
3:11:22 - Cassie (sister)
3:11:27 -
@Naomeri
3:12:00 -
@WillRunForPizza
3:14:16 -
@flav
3:15:26 -
@MissLiss279
