To Infinity and Beyond - Becoming a Better DopeyBadger (Comments Welcome)

Fall 2022 Girls on the Run 5k w/ G

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It's a Gigi takeover! Hi everyone, I'm so excited to tell you all about my experience with the Girls on the Run, and the 5k I did with my dad.

I decided to sign up for the Girls on the Run program because it was the first year I was age eligible to join. I really wanted to see what it was all about, and whether it was worth doing it again. It was right after school, so usually I had to get home, eat a snack, and then head back to my school where the practice was being held. There were five coaches, and about 10-20 other girls from 3rd grade to 5th grade in the program. We practiced two times per week, and about 90 min a day. Although thankfully we didn't actually run for the whole 90 min a day, instead we did about 30 min of running (sometimes 20) and a lot of team building and fun games. I missed a few practices along the way because I was sick. I also missed the practice 5k, but I felt confident because I have done 5ks before.

The race was on November 5th, 2022 in Waunakee. The weather didn't look the greatest in the forecasts ahead of time. I was also coming off a sickness for the last week and a half. So the discussion with my dad for the week leading into the race, was to be comfortable with possibly not being able to do it. Sick + wet/wind = Not great. I've been working on math in the 3rd grade.

On Friday, my dad and I got lots of supplies together in case we actually did the race. We decided to wear the long sleeve shirts they gave us as our outermost layer, and then we both wore a water proof wind jacket underneath. This way we could represent the race, but stay dry (we didn't stay dry... :scared1:).

Dad woke up and checked the weather. It wasn't as bad as it could be, but it wasn't great. There was no lightning in the area, but there was a storm off in the distance that might hit while we're on the race course. We were also going to have to deal with some crazy wind. I had a nutella waffle for breakfast. We both got dressed and headed out the door around 7:25am. There was only street parking and dad wanted to get there early. The drive over was mostly uneventful. I watched Sing 2 on my iPad. For most of the drive over, it wasn't really raining. But as we got closer to the race location, it rained more and more. When we got to the race location, we parked the car, and not long after we arrived there were lots of other people showing up. Dad checked the weather radar and saw that after this little patch of rain passed, we would be good for a bit. But we were probably going to get some rain when we were running. We got our running gear on, and then headed over to the race location.

My friends were starting to collect at our race flag. Everyone showed up despite the bad weather. One of my coaches gave me a tattoo (don't worry it's only temporary) that said "Superstar". A different coach gave me a hair tie with a little blue ribbon on it. My friends and I were being silly. We also saw Scoopie the Culver's mascot. I asked my dad if he thought Scoopie was racing too, but he said it was doubtful. My dad told me to gather my friends so we could take a group picture.

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Then my dad and I took a picture together.

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Around 8:30am the announcer led us through some stretches and cheers. Our cheer is "We're strong. We know it. And this is how we show it. Girls on the Run is so much fun. Girls on the Run is #1." Before long it was time to head to the starting line. They let all of the groups of girls in Wave 1 head to the starting line together. Which means the groups got a little broken up and I wasn't standing to all my friends anymore. My dad and I had settled on doing unstructured run/walk. So when I wanted to walk, I would just say so, and when I wanted to run, I would say so. There were about 750 Girls on the Run runners and about 1000 running buddies. At around 9am, they sounded a fire truck horn to announce the start of the race, and we were off.

Conditions - 🌧 Light Rain, Wind 16mph to 32mph
Start: Temp+Dew = 56°F + 56°F; FL - 57°F
End: Temp+Dew = 57°F + 57°F; FL - 57°F

Mile 1

Mile 1 was hard, and I felt like I walked most of it. I saw some of my friends running too and would shout encouragements at them. We had to run up a hill, and we decided to walk most of the uphill and run the downhill. At this time it was mostly spitting rain, and it wasn't that bad. But the wind was pretty heavy. During mile 1 I met my competition. When we headed down the hill, one of my coaches behind me yelled "Gigi, I'm coming for you." That's all I needed to hear. Challenge accepted, you aren't going to catch me. So for the remainder of the race, I kept looking back to make sure we stayed ahead of her. I didn't see her for the remainder of the race. We finished the first mile in about 14:07 minutes.

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Mile 2

Mile 2 had a nice spot where we could see the runners ahead of us on top of the hill. So then we got to the top, and then we could see everyone else behind us in the distance. The rain was starting to pick up a little bit, but it wasn't that bad. Once we got down the big hill we reached the only water stop. As we got closer to the water stop the rain and wind were starting to pick up even more. I asked my dad a few times how much further we had to go, and he told me we were a little past halfway. Around this time in the race I saw more of my friends running. I saw Alice. Before I knew it we were finished with Mile 2 in 13:28.

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Mile 3

Mile 3 was hard because it was getting even rainier and windy. At one point there was a large crowd of people that were cheering in the distance. My dad encouraged me to do a super boost past them. When I did the crowd went wild. They screamed! It was a boost to my spirit. Despite the bad weather they came to cheer us on. Now the rain was really getting crazy. Dad and I were yelling at the clouds to give us MORE RAIN. RAIN HARDER. And... it did. We probably shouldn't have done that.

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It was wild. The other people around us couldn't do anything but laugh. Then we came to the end of the third mile at 13:12 and we were in the home stretch.

3.11 miles

With as hard as it was raining and throwing us around with the wind, all you could do was smile. We're strong, and we were showing it. This picture barely does it justice in terms of how just how soaked we were.

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My dad's shirt was originally pink, but it was so rain soaked it turned red. We found the finish line and super boosted to it. We finished in 42:08. That's my second fastest 5k.

When we crossed the finish line, I found a few of my friends. And I beat my coach! So all in all it was a great race. Then my dad and I walked back to the car and got cleaned up. He brought me some dry clothes to change into.

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So what are my thoughts about the Girls on the Run program? I loved it. So so much. I want to do it again when it is offered. Hopefully next time it's not so cold, rainy, and windy. But I didn't let that damper my spirits. I'd like to thank my dad for taking me to the race and running it with me. And also thank my grandma and mom for taking me to practice and picking me up. And lastly I'd like to thank my friends and coaches who helped encourage me all along the way. Thanks for reading and see you again!

:wave2:
Congratulations, Gigi! Great job!:banana:
:banana::banana::banana:
 
Gigi responds:

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Great job Gigi (and Dad)! And great job working on your mental toughness!

Thank you.

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Great job Gigi!! It was kind of raining this morning at Disney World for the Half Marathon and my shoes got really wet. Please don’t ask for any rain or wind at Princess Weekend, OK? 😁

You got it!

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Go Gigi!!! You are such a skilled writer and storyteller. Glad you are loving Girls on the Run. :)

Thanks!

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Great job G! Way to push through the horrible conditions. Rain and cold are my enemy. I hate it so much.

Well sometimes you have to do what you don't want to do.

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Congratulations, G! I just want to know how you snuck some onions into my computer? I LOVE the pics with you and Dad.

Ahhh... you cried?

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Congratulations, Gigi! Great job!:banana:
:banana::banana::banana:

Ack, dancing bananas!

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2022 Madison M Weather Forecast - 5 days to go!

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Date of Forecast - WC Range - Precipitation Chance - Cloud Cover - Wind (all forecasts for 7am to 10am)
11/3/22 - 22-30F - 4-8% chance of snow/rain - 63-65% cloudy - 5-7 mph Westerly
11/4/22 - 19-25F - 9-12% chance of snow/rain - 62-65% cloudy - 6-10 mph Westerly
11/5/22 - 18-24F - 14-16% chance of snow/rain - 52-64% cloudy - 4-9 mph Westerly
11/6/22 - 12-20F - 0-3% chance of snow/rain - 39-54% cloudy - 7-10 mph Westerly
11/7/22 - 13-19F - 0-3% chance of snow/rain - 47-50% cloudy - 8-11 mph Westerly
11/7/22 - 15-20F - 0-4% chance of snow/rain - 46-52% cloudy - 4-9 mph North Westerly

Forecast is warming back up (relatively speaking) in to awesome conditions.
 
Race Predictor Calculators vs my Marathon Performance

When reviewing the marathon taper data, I recently used the Daniels VDOT conversions for my old race times to see what his calculator would pre-predict based on recent other race distances.

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The races were about 2.5 minutes off on absolute average, and 1:42 on average.

I wanted to see what the 538 Vickers calculator predicted which includes training mileage in its calculation. This 538 calculator is based off the Vickers paper that I already wrote about (link) and is discussed here (link), (not based on the Ian Williams paper (link) but relevant). So I typed in my times and average running mileage into the calculator (link) and got the following:

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In all six non-Dopey w/ HM marathons, I beat the Vickers prediction. I bet it by an average of 4:10. So I think the Vickers calculator usually doesn't do as good a job as predicting my marathon time as the VDOT calculator does.

When I follow at least a three week taper, then we get:

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Daniels is off by an average of -5 seconds (range 98 seconds under and 71 seconds over).
Vickers is off by an average of 5:09 minutes.

IF (and it's a big if) my fitness is equal to the 39:54 10k I ran, then Daniels predicts a 3:04:14 and Vickers predicts 3:10:20. With how much they've been off for me in the past, Daniels would predict a 3:04:09 (range 3:02:26-3:05:25) and Vickers would predict a 3:05:11 (range 3:04:13-3:07:37). But I don't actually know that I'm in 39:54 shape. Still fun to look at.
 
2022 Madison M Weather Forecast - 4 days to go!

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Date of Forecast - WC Range - Precipitation Chance - Cloud Cover - Wind (all forecasts for 7am to 10am)
11/3/22 - 22-30F - 4-8% chance of snow/rain - 63-65% cloudy - 5-7 mph Westerly
11/4/22 - 19-25F - 9-12% chance of snow/rain - 62-65% cloudy - 6-10 mph Westerly
11/5/22 - 18-24F - 14-16% chance of snow/rain - 52-64% cloudy - 4-9 mph Westerly
11/6/22 - 12-20F - 0-3% chance of snow/rain - 39-54% cloudy - 7-10 mph Westerly
11/7/22 - 13-19F - 0-3% chance of snow/rain - 47-50% cloudy - 8-11 mph Westerly
11/8/22 - 15-20F - 0-4% chance of snow/rain - 46-52% cloudy - 4-9 mph North Westerly
11/9/22 - 17-23F - 1-4% chance of snow/rain - 22-30% cloudy - 4-7 mph North Westerly

I'd take that forecast and bottle it up. Low 20s, no precipitation, and low wind. About as good as it gets for me. It's looking like a shorts and tank top day.
 
2022 Madison M Weather Forecast - 3 days to go!

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Date of Forecast - WC Range - Precipitation Chance - Cloud Cover - Wind (all forecasts for 7am to 10am)
11/3/22 - 22-30F - 4-8% chance of snow/rain - 63-65% cloudy - 5-7 mph Westerly
11/4/22 - 19-25F - 9-12% chance of snow/rain - 62-65% cloudy - 6-10 mph Westerly
11/5/22 - 18-24F - 14-16% chance of snow/rain - 52-64% cloudy - 4-9 mph Westerly
11/6/22 - 12-20F - 0-3% chance of snow/rain - 39-54% cloudy - 7-10 mph Westerly
11/7/22 - 13-19F - 0-3% chance of snow/rain - 47-50% cloudy - 8-11 mph Westerly
11/8/22 - 15-20F - 0-4% chance of snow/rain - 46-52% cloudy - 4-9 mph North Westerly
11/9/22 - 17-23F - 1-4% chance of snow/rain - 22-30% cloudy - 4-7 mph North Westerly
11/10/22 - 17-23F - 1-4% chance of snow/rain - 9-25% cloudy - 4-7 mph North Westerly

Looks great to me!
 
2022 Madison Marathon - My Prediction

What to predict... what to predict. The weather is fantastic. Fitness is arguably at an all time high. Outside of some taper madness, the body feels great. Which by the way, boo to taper madness. Middle of Monday night/Tuesday morning and I'm sleeping. Wake up momentarily and my body is like, "hey let's do a stretch" and then I was in like a mid stretch and was like, "oh **** I shouldn't do that because that one time I got a calf cramp" and stopped myself. And then my right achilles was angry at me for stopping mid-stretch. It's been lingering, but like really. Really. Ugh, taper madness is the worst. Anyways.

Weather = great
Fitness = great
Body = great (be quiet tapers)

It's really setting up for the potential of a great day. I was conversing with someone else about it this morning, but in all honesty regardless of what happens on Sunday this training cycle was a resounding success. I did more training volume than I've done in years, arguably hit an all time high in fitness, did a 30 week training plan, and stayed healthy throughout. That's a big deal. The race is the victory lap of training. The celebration. I'm proud of myself already for what I've accomplished.

Ok, ok, we get it, you're proud of yourself, but what's the prediction?

I ran a 39:54 10k almost five years ago when I was in arguably similar fitness than I am now. I ran a 1:28:40 HM three years ago in the midst of run+cycle+strength. I trained based on those bench marks set way back when on the basis of a 7:02 min/mile. A 7:02 min/mile is a 3:04:25. If I actually maintain a GPS 7:02 min/mile then that's a 3:05:28 based on this course usually coming out at 26.37 miles. The BQ cutoff is 3:05:00. My HRvPace prediction model says:

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With 2:59:45 being a top level conversion (Dopey 2017 and Lake 2017), 3:06:47 being similar to Madison 2021, and 3:17:20 being a bottom similar to Non-Cancelled 2021.

Something around a 7:08-7:12 has felt comfortable in training.

I'm going to go with 3:14:05. Not necessarily because that's what I think I'll run, but rather because it offers one of the largest windows between other players. And in a game of don't guess too fast, I'll take the slower over the faster. It also happens to be my current PR.
 
The 2022 Madison Marathon Strategy

Carb loading


On Saturday, I plan to follow my modified Western Australian carb loading procedure. The goal is to take in approximately 11-12 grams of carbs/kilogram body weight. I haven't weighed in yet, but I'm expecting something in the 175-185 pound range.

As I've done for the last couple WA carb loadings, instead of 80% of my carbs being sourced from liquid sources, I will instead get about 50% of my carbs from liquid sources and continue to eat almost normally. The goal is to eat at least 11 g carbs/kg body weight as I did in November/January 2020 and November 2021. I had no ill effects from this strategy prior and felt absolutely great on race day. So early Saturday morning, I will get in my 20-30 min run. I'll drink chocolate milk and Maurten 320. I'll continue to drink Maurten 320 throughout the day aiming for 5-6 total packages. For breakfast, lunch, and dinner I'll eat somewhat normally. I'll drink extra water to thirst and drink 1-2 Liquid IV throughout the day. The 6 Maurten packages would be 480 grams. My dinner is 160 grams per the Hello Fresh recipe (Vegan Street-cart Style Chickpea bowl). My chocolate milk is 60 grams. My Hello Fresh breakfast/lunch is 232g (Zucchini and Corn Queso Blanco Burritos). A few snacks here and there will get me to the 900-950 gram goal.

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ETA - I ended up consuming 983g carbs which was 12.2g carbs/kg bw at a body weight of 178 pounds.

Race Morning Nutrition

On Sunday morning, I will drink 16-24oz of Liquid IV around 4:30am (approximately 2 hours before my last opportunity for the bathroom around 6:30am). I will eat my PB bagel and banana around 4:30am as well. I'll drink Maurten 320 about 15 min prior to race start (6:45am).

Race Outfit

Based on the 17-23F wind chill prediction, I am definitely wearing shorts, tank top, light gloves, and headband. I may or may not wear the old sock arm sleeves.

In-Race Nutrition and Hydration

As for fueling during the race, I'm planning the following:

minus 15 min - Maurten 320
45 min - Tailwind Concentrate
60 min - Maurten Caff gel
75 min - Egel
105 min - Tailwind Concentrate
120 min - Maurten Caff gel
135 min - Egel
165 min - Tailwind Concentrate

That puts me at 93g carb per hour. Depending on how I feel, I may sneak another Maurten non-Caff gel in there late. That would put me at 101g/hr.

There are 18 aid stations on the course. So to stay hydrated and assuming 3oz per cup, I'm aiming for two cups per aid station.

Race Pace Strategy

Mentally I'm breaking the course into three portions. Mile 0 to 11 which is a set of rolling hills. Then Mile 11 to 15 is relatively flat, or cancelled out between the ups and downs. Then Mile 15 to the finish is rolling hills again. The course overall has a GAP average of 5 seconds.

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My strategy is to pay attention to the hill miles and know that I'll be slower on those. So if I'm doing 7:10s on the in-between miles, then I'll assume mile 9-10 should be around 7:27 (7:10+17 sec). I'll wear this on my wrist:

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I'm also going to wear this on my wrist.

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This is the GPS mile 20 split of different finish times around where I think I'll be and the GPS pace I'd need to maintain to hit that. It also gives me a quick reference if I want to see what my current average GPS pace is and about where that puts my finish time at.

If anyone is looking for live tracking, I'm bib 100. This is the tracking (link) and (link) and (link) and possibly here (link). The marathon usually has timing mats at 2 miles, 10k, HM, 15.9 miles, 20 mile, and Finish. But as we learned last year they provide splits and not pace information. So for easy reference, these are the race distance splits and their associated estimated finish times.

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I'd said these last year and they're applicable again:

-I know that I tend to start slower.
-I know early on in marathons and M Tempo training runs, the pace doesn't feel comfortable at the start.
-I know that as things progress my legs will open up and things will start to feel more normal.
-I know as the race progresses, maintaining the same pace will take an increase in effort.
-I know that my HRvPace relationship tends to be worse than what it was in training during races.
-I know that not everything will go to plan. Be like water over a rock. Just flow.
-I know that as the race nears 19-20 miles I may start to see some fade in pace.
-I know that in roughly 3-3.5 hours time the race exhaustion and pain will be over.
-I know I'm capable of great things if I just trust myself.
 
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2022 Madison M Weather Forecast - 2 days to go!

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Date of Forecast - WC Range - Precipitation Chance - Cloud Cover - Wind (all forecasts for 7am to 10am)
11/3/22 - 22-30F - 4-8% chance of snow/rain - 63-65% cloudy - 5-7 mph Westerly
11/4/22 - 19-25F - 9-12% chance of snow/rain - 62-65% cloudy - 6-10 mph Westerly
11/5/22 - 18-24F - 14-16% chance of snow/rain - 52-64% cloudy - 4-9 mph Westerly
11/6/22 - 12-20F - 0-3% chance of snow/rain - 39-54% cloudy - 7-10 mph Westerly
11/7/22 - 13-19F - 0-3% chance of snow/rain - 47-50% cloudy - 8-11 mph Westerly
11/8/22 - 15-20F - 0-4% chance of snow/rain - 46-52% cloudy - 4-9 mph North Westerly
11/9/22 - 17-23F - 1-4% chance of snow/rain - 22-30% cloudy - 4-7 mph North Westerly
11/10/22 - 17-23F - 1-4% chance of snow/rain - 9-25% cloudy - 4-7 mph North Westerly
11/11/22 - 18-23F - 1-4% chance of snow/rain - 4-12% cloudy - 4-8 mph North Westerly

Looks great to me! Solidly in shorts and tank weather, and honestly with full sun the old sock arm sleeves may not happen (or last all that long).
 

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