Ticket Discount Predictions!!!

[crisi]

vernon, we've often been at opposite ends of this one, but I agree with you.

Ever since someone came back from the meetings and said the AP ownership rate on DVC was actually quite low, I've thought that my analysis on giving breaks is probably wrong - as it was predicated on a much higher rate of AP ownership.

If I were going to construct it for "most value for Disney," I'd do a sliding scale. More on UPHs (because it forces you to make a committment to the Disney parks), less percentage wise on APs - although perhaps the same - the thought being that a good AP discount might get people to buy more points (I know we'd consider an add on - right now we go for only a week every other year - but in a few years ten days or two weeks in the summer would be quite attractive to our family, and a good discount would encourage the add on), and the lowest discount (but some discount) on Hoppers - perhaps similar to what you'd get through a broker and basically a bone to "loyalty".

 

[Mary Anne]

A DVC CM once told me that Disney does not make any money on admission tickets, however, their real money comes from the money you spend INSIDE the park; food, drink, buying stuff. I have to believe this is somewhat true.

Perhaps they are noticing a trend in people staying at their DVC hotel and visiting other Orlando places and realize that they are losing more $$$ then they are getting.

In any case, we buy annual passes and will probably continue to do so with or without a discount. However, my pass is up the end of my trip this August, I will not be renewing as I have no plans to return before next summer if at all then. We're thinking of doing Disney Calif next year. In the event we do change our minds and DO go to Florida if there is no Annual pass discount our by the time we're going, I are really leaning towards seeing some of the other Orlando sites that trip. We have not seen anything off property in close to 10 years and with no Disney annual passes in our hip pockets, Universal is ripe for our buying.

 

[GrimGhost]

Am I going mad or do people enjoy overpaying/paying more than we have to to the mouse???

 

[akghutton]

I voted other discount, for even though I would love a 15% or larger discount of AP, I think it will be more like 5 or 10%.

 

[donmil723]

I voted 15% on all tickets but hope that they would give us 25%.

I think vernon made some very good points.

Donna

 

[DisneyNutMary]

I'm embarassed.
I read the question wrong. I though it was asking what we really want, and not what Disney will really give.
I think Disney will really give whatever will bring in the highest gross profit. What will make them the most money, while not ticking people off with how money hungry they are. So I will have to say 15% on APs and PAPs.

 

[JimC]

My guess is 10% on all multi-day ticket types except AP and PAP, which I think they will give 15%.

 

[4greatboys]

Im hoping it will be a discount across the board for all types of admission but I really dont think they are going to off us a discount.

 

[PKS44]

Originally posted by robmary
I think we should pay the same as Florida residents for AP's. We do have a deed after all for property in Florida.

No, I do not think this is correct. We have a deed to USE property in Florida. We do not hold the deed to the property itself. Big difference and this is the reason Disney can decide to build a pool slide at OKW without getting any permission from the OKW members....they are MEMBERS of the CLUB not OWNERS of OKW. Even more typical timeshare owners who own time at a property for as long as the property exists are not considered property OWNERS under the laws of the state of Florida. Sorry this is a common misunderstanding...people should not be confused when this misunderstanding or misinformation is posted on these boards as if it were a fact.

 

[Ksp]

Since most of our discounts seem to be 10%, I think that we will get that off of tickets. I keep hoping that they will included AP's and PH's on the list.....but I do think that Disney sees us (DVC'rs) as guaranteed revenue and they're not about to give that up.

 

[crisi]

Originally posted by PKS44
No, I do not think this is correct. We have a deed to USE property in Florida. We do not hold the deed to the property itself. Big difference and this is the reason Disney can decide to build a pool slide at OKW without getting any permission from the OKW members....they are MEMBERS of the CLUB not OWNERS of OKW. Even more typical timeshare owners who own time at a property for as long as the property exists are not considered property OWNERS under the laws of the state of Florida. Sorry this is a common misunderstanding...people should not be confused when this misunderstanding or misinformation is posted on these boards as if it were a fact.

The other point on this one is that residency requires more than owning property. It actually requires living in the state in most cases at least half time.

 

[CarolMN]

Even if the state of Florida considered DVC members to be residents, DVC members still would not qualify for Disney's Florida resident discounts.

The contract we all signed at purchase specifically says that DVC membership does not qualify us to receive Florida resident discounts.

Disney gets to decide who will receive discounts. They have decided not to offer Florida resident discounts to DVC members. I wish it were not so, but facts is facts!

Best wishes -

 

[pumpkinboy]

I wonder, if Disney does end up cutting us some kind of discount on APs/PAPs, do you think they'll still give us a renewal discount on top of that?

I would imagine that keeping us all loaded with APs in our pockets ready to go anytime there is an airfare sale would be to Disney's advantage, and would likely keep us going to and spending money in the parks. Right now, a lot of us get 2+ trips out of our APs, then let them expire and buy APs again at the beginning of our next trip - so a pass every other year, or maybe 11 months without passes. If they offer a DVC discount but no renewal bonus, I expect more of us will buy APs, but that we'll continue this on again off again pattern. With a renewal discount on top of a DVC discount, they can certainly count on me to renew almost every year, and I imagine lots of others.

 

[PKS44]

The discount that makes the most sense is one that mirrors the DVC accomodations "discount" that we all (including Disney) enjoy...we all bought into DVC because we know we were going to be coming anyway so we are willing to part with a lot of money now to avoid parting with even more later...that is we give Disney money NOW in exchange for future use...today's dollars that lock in the savings for the future...so they could do something like sell a 5 year AP for the cost of 3 years as an example......they get alot of money now and they "lock" you in to coming fro the next 5 years.

 

[vernon]

so they could do something like sell a 5 year AP for the cost of 3 years as an example......they get alot of money now and they "lock" you in to coming fro the next 5 years.

Unless the 5 year pass was fully transferable ( and I can't see Disney doing that) I don't think it would get a huge take up. We all have plonked money down for DVC for the next 40 or 50 years, so I understand your logic, but IMHO that falls down because it would be almost impossible to make the park tickets as easy to sell on if the purchasers circumstances changed in the near future. The ownership of the DVC itself is a saleable commodity, I don't see anyway for Disney to be able to make the park pass as financially flexible without leaving themselves open to some pretty major abuses of the intent (which would be to attract DVC owners into the parks with more regularity).
The other potential downside for Disney with a 5 year "ticket" is they run the risk that they misjudge the financial viability of the program and the program is too sucessful. With an annual discount if the numbers are not quite right Disney can adjust those next year so it works for them. For one year (or less) Disney could put any losses down to a temporary blip, if a 5 years ticketting plan was to go seriously wrong there's a long time to wait until it gets back on side.

As a side note, there is no reason why Disney could not give DVC members a discount the same ( or similar) to Florida residents without having to tie the two together, give DVC members token "Fl resident status" or making any promises to keep that parity at any time in the future. What Florida uses to define a Florida resident has no baring on what Disney, as an independant company, uses as a criteria to define a group that they would like to attract into their parks. I believe that Disney has at times extended it's "Florida resident" discount to include people from Georgia and South Carolina (or offered people from those states their own "discount" ). Disney can give a discount to whatever group they like, Fl resident status has no baring on whether Disney decides it is in Disney's best interest to give any group a discount.

 

[PKS44]

5 years is not 40 or 50 years for either those buying passes or for Disney in terms of any financial "risk' for either side...they culd allow some flexibility IF you sold your DVC during that time...but I would think the main idea is that they need to appeal to us on the same level that DVC did...we are getting a luxury product at a discount by giving them money AHEAD of time...they should avoid discounting their product otherwise as discounts beget an attitude that discounts are expected...

Paul

 

[vernon]

Paul, the demographics of the DVC are hugely different to that of a discounted pass system. The reason DVC works is that both parties look at the "offer" from different angles and can see the up sides far outweigh the down. The buyer sees they will save a lot of money on their on going vacations and Disney gets a number of free hotels built and a huge upfront fee. It's a win win situation with little downside. As I've already said the ticket scheme , as you outlined, has a lot of potential problems that you haven't thought out ( or explained) I've highlighted a couple and you haven't been able to answer or come up with a reasonable explanation as to how that system would or could work. I for one would never buy a ticket scheme for 5 (or more) years unless there was a system by which that scheme was transferable if I were to die or to sell my DVC membership. I can't see how Disney could police such a system effectively. I'm willing to listen to how it could be done, but I don't think it would appeal to enough numbers to get a take up. It is not in Disney's interest to offer a policy that has a very limited appeal, it's not in Disney's interest to offer a policy that could lose them money. In your scheme you're looking at a close to 40% discount , I think they may run to 20%. You're scheme is 40% for 5 years minimum, With an annual scheme if it's costing too much they can pull it, OK so they lose for one year but it's a fraction of the possible losses of your scheme. For any scheme, discount or idea to work it has to be obvious where the benefits are to both sides and the minus side of the equation has to be controlable. I think a long term pass scheme falls down on both counts.

Tickets and accommodation are hugely different mediums, I disagree that for a particular scheme to appeal they have to be offered as a similar package.

Disney already discount their product (To Fl residents), we are simply putting forward reasons why DVC members should be included in that discounting and why it is in Disney's interest to do so.

 

[PKS44]

vernon-
I just disagree with you.. If you were running Disney you would do it your way...I would do it mine....it is all academic since neither of us has any say in this whatsoever.....as I pointed out and you ignored...5 years is not 40 years...that is not much of a gamble for either side... if it did not sell--like the previous offer of four 5 day hoppers in the next five years that they tried earlier...so what? not much lost offering something that does not sell when there is no "inventory" stacked up in a warehouse...this is not REAL commodity that is being packaged and offered....so if most people are like you and afraid they will die in 5 years maybe you make it refundable for the first 3 years (it costs the same 3 years cost for the first 3 years...the last 2 years are the free ones)
If it sold amazingly well that is the whole point...you have a lot more people committing to coming to the parks for the next five years...if it somehow worked too well for Us the customer such that we were actually somehow giving Disney less money in the 5 years than we would have without the program that is a problem...I have a hard time seeing how that would occur to any risky degree.....anytime during that time it looks like Disney were losing overall---just pull the offer and then they just have to wait out the remainder of the 5 years of people left on those passes...that is not a big gamble for Disney...they would still have lots of cash from the system...it is difficult to envision this being a HUGE drain or strain....and the upside potential is enormous as you lock up lots of today dollars and promises of people to come to the parks for years to come....

The point is that the reason Disney likes DVC is it gets them CASH on the books NOW...The reason we like DVC is that we know we are parting with less CASH in the long run...but really in the long run we end up paying more because if we had to pay as we go we probably would not....so this is an identical deal in that people would think "HEY, I am getting 5 years of AP for the cost of only 3!!!" but really most if not the majority of them would never buy even 3 years worth in the first place if they had to pay as they went...they would buy hoppers or not go to the parks or only buy an AP 2 of the 5 years...and maybe it needs to be 4 for the price of 3 or 5 for the price of four...I am not locked on the number..just the idea that if I ran the place I would try this approach with DVC members...and no I do not think the Florida discount is a bad idea...just if I ran the place I would prefer my way...

Paul

 

[vernon]

Paul I agree with your original placing of the discount, for it to get any serious take up it would have to be at least 2 out of 5 years "free" or a 40% discount. Any less and it just doesn't make sense to enough of the members. Unfortunately at that level it's just too big a cost for ticketing to swallow. It has to be a win win situation, and IMHO that structure has too many imponderables for it to be an obvious win for both parties.

as I pointed out and you ignored...5 years is not 40 years...that is not much of a gamble for either side...

For a family of 4 it's still going to be well in excess of $5,000 for most individuals I do believe that's a sizable gamble. It's about 25-30% ( maybe more) of what most members put in to a 50 year deal, so proportionately it's a bigger gamble ( about 3x the gamble I calculate).

For Disney ticketing, their potential (if it gets priced wrong) is also quite large.

Worst case scenario ( and it would be easy to track) would be that only those already buying APs takes up this offer. I think 30% is the figure of DVC members ( I'll use 50k members I'm sure its more like 80k) that take APs so that's 15,000 members average family size 3 people so 45,000 people. Disney loses $700 per person or $31,500,000 over the 5 years for no gain. Someone gonna lose their head for that IMHO.

But even if there is a good take up (of any discount), ticketing isn't the division that stands to make the big bucks. If they price it wrong they wear the losses. As shown above they will already be taking a chunky hit on those members that already take up APs, even if they double the take up rate, a 40% discount puts them still slightly down on the deal (assuming members use hoppers frugally). Unless they get close on 100% take up (which is unlikely) it's a loser. With a 100% take up ticketing may make $5-10,000,000, worst case they lose $30-40,000,000. The odds just don't stack up. I'd say that's a pretty sizable gamble even for a company the size of Disney if they take a "corporate" view on the idea that other divisions will make more out of the idea. The poor schmuck running ticketing gets an absolute hosing. If I was running that division I'd be shouting blue murder at the idea. JMHO.

 

[jarestel]

Regarding the 5 year pass, I have a couple of thoughts -
First, there's no reason why the 5 year plan has to appeal to everyone in order to do it anyway. Most people don't buy annual passes today, but they still sell them. As Paul said, Disney loses nothing by not selling mountains of these passes, since there is no cost to them associated with offering this plan anyway. Of course along with the large discount associated with this type of pass, comes an inherent risk that you might not get 5 years of use out of this for some personal reasons. As I see it, you need to weigh this out before you buy, and if it's too risky, don't buy this type of pass. Again, because some may find this too risky, is not a reason not to offer this pass.
Secondly, Disney currently offers all kinds of resort discounts to entice people to come to WDW for what... to spend more money. The money lost on the rooms is presumeably made up in other areas at WDW. Since DVC'ers don't need these room discounts, a ticket discount would make great sense for luring us to WDW even more often. I currently buy annual passes and have on more than one occasion decided to make an unplanned trip to WDW because a great air-fare suddenly appeared. As someone pointed out, if you have a pre-paid accomodation and a pre-paid park admission, you don't need much of a shove to go to WDW and spend MONEY whenever the opportunity arises.
Well, that's my discounted .02 anyway...

Edited to add:
I don't think the argument that everyone will buy this type of ticket and cause Disney to lose gobs of money works. Everyone could go out tomorrow and buy AP's which would theoretically accomplish the same thing, but since people buy the ticket media that works best for them, this isn't likely to happen any more than 80000 DVC members will all decide to buy the same type of pass.