The VGF 2 pricing thread

[SusieQ93]

Anecdotally, even informed DVC members on these boards continue to add on at prices around $180, even though they’re well aware of the potential $207 starting price.

I think it just depends what camp you’re in. There’s one group who thinks VGF2 is going to be priced really high and thus resale could drive up even higher. So they want to get in now. We know Disney isn’t going to offer VGF for less than $180.

Then I think there’s another group who wants to wait and see what Disney offers. It also depends on if the perks of buying direct matter to you or not. If you already have direct points and a blue card, the restrictions on resale (not being able to use at future resorts) maybe don’t matter. For a new buyer like me, a $4k discount (150 pts at 180 vs 207) isn’t worth it to me because I want to be able to use my points at any future DVC resorts, and I want the blue card. The total cost of owning a 150 pt contact is about $80k (truly hirer because maintenance fees will increase but I’m not going to do an estimate that includes inflation), so when I look at it that way, with how much you’re spending, the discount isn’t worth it to me personally.

I think it really just depends on the individual and your preferences. And while I have my speculations on price and everyone on here has done their research, at the end of the day, none of us know what Disney is going to do. We’re all just guessing and hoping it pays off.

 

[stwaldman]

This is like saying a Mickey bar from 2019 costs more than one from 2002 and we have no idea what they would price it at in 2002. Sure we do, they already did. Prices go one way at Disney. Points go one way. The point inflation is pretty obvious starting at BLT, which already looks retro.

The RIV chart is a bit of an outlier because it scrapes against the VGF chart for a property I would argue is nowhere near VGF level location and value. RIV's chart is just below VGF, in many places by only a couple points. So, yea, I think it's pretty obvious the next property will exceed VGF, even if it isn't VGF level.

The reason this strategy could be modified is if point inflation combined with escalating point costs have just made overall buy in too high, which is what RIV (and AUL) might be showing. I guess we will see if Disney believes that with the VGF2 pricing.

Lol, you literally cut off my post before I made the exact same point by saying the Epcot loop kinda shows us what we'd expect

 

[tjkraz]

That’s correct however vgf2 have at least one huge advantage over Rivera. Whenever a direct owner sells, the new owner won’t have the same ridiculous restrictions as a resale owner will with Rivera.

To me that is worth a premium.

Lot of variables to parse, obviously. Personally, I think smaller contracts at Riviera are pretty safe. Split a purchase into 50-75 point increments. There'll be people willing to make that sort of resale commitment to Riviera, even with the restriction.

Plus the restrictions are something of a double edged sword. People can continue buying resales at SSR, OKW, AKV and others for decades to come, freely accessing VGF at 7 months. Those same resale buyers won't have access to Riviera availability.

GF costs more points to stay, has 8 fewer years and may even cost more on the front end. That's a lot of concessions to trade over resale value concerns. Plus the number of studios they're adding at VGF reduces some of the benefit of owning there. Number of studios is growing more than 5-fold. There will be availability at 7 months out of the year.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

Lot of variables to parse, obviously. Personally, I think smaller contracts at Riviera are pretty safe. Split a purchase into 50-75 point increments. There'll be people willing to make that sort of resale commitment to Riviera, even with the restriction.

Plus the restrictions are something of a double edged sword. People can continue buying resales at SSR, OKW, AKV and others for decades to come, freely accessing VGF at 7 months. Those same resale buyers won't have access to Riviera availability.

GF costs more points to stay, has 8 fewer years and may even cost more on the front end. That's a lot of concessions to trade over resale value concerns. Plus the number of studios they're adding at VGF reduces some of the benefit of owning there. Number of studios is growing more than 5-fold. There will be availability at 7 months out of the year.

I sure hope your right. I'll get back to you when I go to book at 7 months for December.......

 

[Nabas]

Plus the restrictions are something of a double edged sword. People can continue buying resales at SSR, OKW, AKV and others for decades to come, freely accessing VGF at 7 months. Those same resale buyers won't have access to Riviera availability.

I sure hope your right. I'll get back to you when I go to book at 7 months for December.......

7 months for December at VGF?

We're 9 1/2 months from the start of December. At the moment, VGF Standard View only shows 2 non-consecutive nights available for the 31 nights in December. VGF has 7 nights available, but only 2 are consecutive nights. People like VGF's easy access to the Grand Floridian lobby and Magic Kingdom for Christmas decorations.

202 new VGF Studios will change things a bit but many new VGF2 owners will still want December. December probably is the single most popular month for DVC members. Booking any Studio other than your Home Resort is problematic for December. Even if the room you want is available at 7 months + 1 day, chances are there's a bunch of other DVC members trying for the same room at 8 AM the next morning.

 

[Matty B13]

202 new VGF Studios will change things a bit but many new VGF2 owners will still want December. December probably is the single most popular month for DVC members. Booking any Studio other than your Home Resort is problematic for December. Even if the room you want is available at 7 months + 1 day, chances are there's a bunch of other DVC members trying for the same room at 8 AM the next morning.

I hope so, we go in February and April......

 

[BWV Dreamin]

7 months for December at VGF?

We're 9 1/2 months from the start of December. At the moment, VGF Standard View only shows 2 non-consecutive nights available for the 31 nights in December. VGF has 7 nights available, but only 2 are consecutive nights. People VGF's easy access to the Grand Floridian lobby and Magic Kingdom for December.

202 new VGF Studios will change things a bit but many new VGF2 owners will still want December. December probably is the single most popular month for DVC members. Booking any Studio other than your Home Resort is problematic for December. Even if the room you want is available at 7 months + 1 day, chances are there's a bunch of other DVC members trying for the same room at 8 AM the next morning.

Yes, and my point is to make a blanket statement that there will all of a sudden be all this VGF availability at 7 months is unrealistic. Even in other months ( Oct, Nov, May, June) I hardly believe there will be much if any 7 month availability at VGF. Demand is huge at all DVC resorts right now.

 

[Sandisw]

That’s correct however vgf2 have at least one huge advantage over Rivera. Whenever a direct owner sells, the new owner won’t have the same ridiculous restrictions as a resale owner will with Rivera.

To me that is worth a premium.

That is true but buyers are the ones who decide if they want to buy it. And right now, people are.

As soon as we get a few more resorts with restrictions…it won’t be a big deal. Of course, DVD could decide to remove them as well if they want.

I think RIV will remain a resort that people buy on resale…like I did…to add to the other points they own which are good elsewhere.

 

[sndral]

Based on the email I got today urging me to lock in savings on a direct purchase before they disappear 3/2, I’m predicting that VGF2 pricing & terms will be revealed 3/3/22

 

[tjkraz]

I sure hope your right. I'll get back to you when I go to book at 7 months for December.......

Yes, and my point is to make a blanket statement that there will all of a sudden be all this VGF availability at 7 months is unrealistic. Even in other months ( Oct, Nov, May, June) I hardly believe there will be much if any 7 month availability at VGF. Demand is huge at all DVC resorts right now.

Until proven otherwise, December will continue to be very difficult to book. No, I am not predicting plentiful December availability anywhere, simply because the two weeks in early December are still a period where there's demand from more than 2/52nds of owners.

Poly is the obvious parallel. Right now, Poly has availability on 26 nights in July, 30 nights in August and 9 of the 14 September nights which currently fall inside of 7 months.

Resorts only fill at 11 months when a large percentage of owners are booking that far out. It's not difficult to fill 47 studios at VGF when they represent only 32% of the total rooms (and far less than 32% of all points.) After VGF2, the resort will be 72% studio. Big difference, and much less likely that those rooms are consistently filled by owners.

 

[HairyChest]

Would I be correct in assuming us resale owners can’t book here? Or maybe we can since it’ll be part of the original Grand Floridian and not a new resort?

 

[Duckbug.Ducktales]

Would I be correct in assuming us resale owners can’t book here? Or maybe we can since it’ll be part of the original Grand Floridian and not a new resort?

The latter. It'll be part of the original condo association, so resale points can be used to book VGF2 rooms.

 

[smmora]

If it goes on sale 3/3 .... on whatever date it starts

Does that mean there will be a mad dash to buy and book Dec or will VGF2 rooms be available to current VGF owners as soon as it goes on sale?

 

[Sandisw]

If it goes on sale 3/3 .... on whatever date it starts

Does that mean there will be a mad dash to buy and book Dec or will VGF2 rooms be available to current VGF owners as soon as it goes on sale?

The rooms for December should be bookable as soon as they open up bookings for all VGF owners.

 

[SusieQ93]

202 new VGF Studios will change things a bit but many new VGF2 owners will still want December. December probably is the single most popular month for DVC members. Booking any Studio other than your Home Resort is problematic for December. Even if the room you want is available at 7 months + 1 day, chances are there's a bunch of other DVC members trying for the same room at 8 AM the next morning.

One of the biggest reasons I want to buy VGF is to ensure I can stay in December. The resort is gorgeous in December and walking distance to Magic Kingdom is extra valuable for the Christmas party. One of the worst things about the Christmas party is waiting for transportation at the end of the night when you’re tired. Grand Floridian just feels Christmassy too. So yes, I think it will remain very popular and probably still hard to book at 7 months out. It seems like it’s pretty hard to get anything 7 months out in December. Maybe SSR? October - December I don’t plan on being able to stay anywhere but VGF with the 11 month advantage.

 

[tjkraz]

If it goes on sale 3/3 .... on whatever date it starts

Does that mean there will be a mad dash to buy and book Dec or will VGF2 rooms be available to current VGF owners as soon as it goes on sale?

It will be interesting to see how they do it. Usually when bookings open for brand new resorts, there isn't enough time to give owners the normal 11 month priority window. In the past, they've given buyers at least 2-3 weeks before opening reservations to other members.

Here, we're already inside of 7 months for almost the entire "summer 2022" opening window. At a minimum, I would hope they process a few weeks' worth of Phase 2 sales before they open bookings for Resort Studios. They may--and some would argue should--open Resort Studios ALL VGF owners immediately. But at least the Phase 2 buyers will have a fighting chance to get rooms before they are gobbled up. Some new buyers will undoubtedly want 1, 2 and 3 bedroom villas in the original building. It's a 2-way street.

 

[princesscinderella]

Is there any advantage any more to buying while on a Disney cruise? We are sailing on 4/16 and if they go on sale before we cruise is it worth it it wait to buy onboard?

 

[RoseGold]

Is there any advantage any more to buying while on a Disney cruise? We are sailing on 4/16 and if they go on sale before we cruise is it worth it it wait to buy onboard?

Historically, the best pricing is always when it first goes on sale. Aulani and Riviera have messed that up a bit, and who knows what DVC is doing with pricing all over the place lately. I think it will be obvious immediately if VGF2 is priced low or high. If it's low, I wouldn't wait until April. If it's high, you could get a quote and take it on board with you. There are stories of the cruise DVC salesmen beating it by a little or throwing in some cruise stuff to get it closed.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

Is there any advantage any more to buying while on a Disney cruise? We are sailing on 4/16 and if they go on sale before we cruise is it worth it it wait to buy onboard?

Personally I would wait. Often times there’s a little better incentive on the ship. You will have time to make that decision as we still don’t know the opening date.

 

[princesscinderella]

Historically, the best pricing is always when it first goes on sale. Aulani and Riviera have messed that up a bit, and who knows what DVC is doing with pricing all over the place lately. I think it will be obvious immediately if VGF2 is priced low or high. If it's low, I wouldn't wait until April. If it's high, you could get a quote and take it on board with you. There are stories of the cruise DVC salesmen beating it by a little or throwing in some cruise stuff to get it closed.

Personally I would wait. Often times there’s a little better incentive on the ship. You will have time to make that decision as we still don’t know the opening date.

Thanks! I guess we will wait and see