The Vaccine Discussion Thread

[tidefan]

There is A TON of caveat to that though. It prevented 89% of the most severe cases it doesn't mean you are full protected and will prevent additional spread. The prevention of spread is the important part during the vaccine rollout over the next 12-18 months until most people either have already had COVID19 or had the vaccine to reduce their risk of severe issues.

But, we are talking about cruising and I highly suspect that the cruise lines will require proof of vaccination for awhile. So, if you "spread" it on the ship, it would be to another vaccinated person that hopefully would not get ill

Lets not forget each person needs 2 shots. That means 1.85m people/day over 7 days a week. Its why I keep pointing to 2022 if you want a chance at "normal" again.

The game changer here would be if Johnson & Johnson's candidate, which only requires a single-shot, is approved. If things continue well, they expect to apply for an EUA in January/February 2021. It was in the news the other day that they capped their Phase 3 trial to 40,000 enrollees instead of 60,000 because of the increased prevalence of the disease in the US, they expect that they won't need all those extra people to get results. In the article, they expected to get to their statistical significance in January and submit in February, though they said on the news the other day that due to the number of cases increasing, it could be faster than that...

https://www.statnews.com/2020/12/09...ne-study-due-to-prevalence-of-disease-in-u-s/

The AstraZeneca would really be a game-changer as well, but I have a feeling that their study (at least in the US) hit so many delays that they may not be until the end of Q1 2021...

 

[sethschroeder]

But, we are talking about cruising and I highly suspect that the cruise lines will require proof of vaccination for awhile. So, if you "spread" it on the ship, it would be to another vaccinated person that hopefully would not get ill

Fairly certain if there is any sort of vaccine requirement for cruising (highly doubt there will be at least for DCL in the US) that it will require 2 doses anyways. So its a mute point either way its sliced regarding 1 dose.

 

[tidefan]

Excellent clarification on the two doses meaning 1.85 million people per day! Your conclusion about 2022 is probably also correct for many people, given their level of fear over this disease. However, I personally doubt that compliance with the various mandates will last very well through 2021.

I'd ask how many flu vaccines can be given in the US daily. Here are the numbers from the CDC on how much was sent out:

 

[tidefan]

Fairly certain if there is any sort of vaccine requirement for cruising (highly doubt there will be at least for DCL in the US) that it will require 2 doses anyways. So its a mute point either way its sliced regarding 1 dose.

Johnson & Johnson is only 1 dose

 

[jane01jp]

But, we are talking about cruising and I highly suspect that the cruise lines will require proof of vaccination for awhile. So, if you "spread" it on the ship, it would be to another vaccinated person that hopefully would not get ill

Do you think we will see other travel restrictions for cruises, having to do with co-morbidities, particularly extreme BMI? It would seem like a good idea, so that the risk of extremely severe cases onboard might be minimized.

The game changer here would be if Johnson & Johnson's candidate, which only requires a single-shot, is approved. If things continue well, they expect to apply for an EUA in January/February 2021. It was in the news the other day that they capped their Phase 3 trial to 40,000 enrollees instead of 60,000 because of the increased prevalence of the disease in the US, they expect that they won't need all those extra people to get results. In the article, they expected to get to their statistical significance in January and submit in February, though they said on the news the other day that due to the number of cases increasing, it could be faster than that...

https://www.statnews.com/2020/12/09...ne-study-due-to-prevalence-of-disease-in-u-s/

The AstraZeneca would really be a game-changer as well, but I have a feeling that their study (at least in the US) hit so many delays that they may not be until the end of Q1 2021...

Let's hope the J&J candidate comes through!

 

[sethschroeder]

I'd ask how many flu vaccines can be given in the US daily. Here are the numbers from the CDC on how much was sent out:
View attachment 543818

Much different since a flu vaccine can be housed pretty much any pharmacy and given out of any pharmacy. More requirements it would seem with the COVID19 vaccine and more challenges to possibly overcome.

The US after it figures out quirks and issues can basically do anything. The issue is getting there quickly and out of the gate.

The Flu Vaccine in the US has been widely available since the 1940s.

Johnson & Johnson is only 1 dose

When it gets closer I will worry about it. The numbers being brought up were until the end of March and if its not until the end of January thats half the timeline before JJ enters the picture. Also as we get closer things like distribution, reactions to the vaccine, and production capacity would also come to play. Not worrying about that until we are close.

 

[jane01jp]

Very well said. My wife is in charge of infection control at a major hospital system just like the UPMC physician mentioned above (in fact, she used to work at UPMC with him) and this echoes her feelings perfectly. She stands behind the vaccine 100% but no way will she (or can she, as others have noted) make it a requirement for employment right now.

Another quote from today regarding UPMC:

"Initial surveys have found that even some health care workers don't want to be first in line. Dr. Graham Snyder, who's led the vaccine task force at Pennsylvania health care giant UPMC, estimates that about half of its employees are willing to get the vaccine as soon as it's offered."

 

[ruadisneyfan2]

Much different since a flu vaccine can be housed pretty much any pharmacy and given out of any pharmacy. More requirements it would seem with the COVID19 vaccine and more challenges to possibly overcome.

The US after it figures out quirks and issues can basically do anything. The issue is getting there quickly and out of the gate.

The Flu Vaccine in the US has been widely available since the 1940s.



When it gets closer I will worry about it. The numbers being brought up were until the end of March and if its not until the end of January thats half the timeline before JJ enters the picture. Also as we get closer things like distribution, reactions to the vaccine, and production capacity would also come to play. Not worrying about that until we are close.

The Moderna vaccine only needs simple refrigeration. AFAIK, only the Pfizer one requires the deep freeze. Hopefully once Moderna is approved it will be much easier getting supplies to clinics and doctor offices.

 

[snappy]

And to residents and staff at LTC facilities.

 

[Birdie dog]

I think that it's very likely that proof of vaccine will be required for a while to cruise.
So far all the "post covid trial run cruises" have failed. They've had a case pop up, they've had to put everyone in their room, return to port and cancel cruises. With the cruise lines bleeding money, the cost of fuel for these cancelled cruises is a huge issue. (Honestly I have no idea if cancelled cruises are being refunded, but at the least I'd guess the guests on the cancelled cruise would get a voucher for anther cruise).
With the vaccine, there's a fantastic chance that no one would have the virus and if someone did the odds of spreading it to others on board would be so small that I'd think that the cruise could continue with maybe the cabin in quarantine. Since the vaccines are minimizing symptoms, I'd think at some point, cruising would completely normalize again.
I don't think you could argue a limited market of cruisers because right now that number is zero. So allowing vaccinated guests to cruise is automatically a win for the cruise line.
And finally, although children aren't being vaccinated at this time, studies are showing that children don't spread the virus effectively. I'm not saying that's 100% but if the adults around said child are vaccinated as well, the chance of a breakout is minimal.
I think vaccines are the ticket to being able to safely travel again.

 

[bbel]

I haven't read all the posts here, but two of my cousins (both in healthcare) got the vaccine last week (the second day they were available here in the UK)!
So far so good, absolutely no side effects!

Really encouraging for the rest of the family!

 

[Birdie dog]

I'm hoping for mine this week in the US. (ER nurse). We need this hope soooo bad!

 

[tidefan]

Interesting side note as all this rolls out. A physician friend of mine said that "if you really want it soon, you'll probably be able to get it". The point is that even in the healthcare settings, something like 60-70% of people are wanting to take it initially and because it's under an EUA, they can't require it. So, the thing with Pfizer, apparently, is that once these vials come out of the freezer/box, they have a limited amount of time to give out the shots. If they go through the list of "approved" people and some decline and there is an amount left over, they will use it on whomever.

Now, this is probably a few weeks down the road, but is what they were being told by the Dept. of Public Health, was to have a backup plan to make sure that none of the vaccine is "wasted".

 

[disneyland_is_magic]

Interesting side note as all this rolls out. A physician friend of mine said that "if you really want it soon, you'll probably be able to get it". The point is that even in the healthcare settings, something like 60-70% of people are wanting to take it initially and because it's under an EUA, they can't require it. So, the thing with Pfizer, apparently, is that once these vials come out of the freezer/box, they have a limited amount of time to give out the shots. If they go through the list of "approved" people and some decline and there is an amount left over, they will use it on whomever.

Now, this is probably a few weeks down the road, but is what they were being told by the Dept. of Public Health, was to have a backup plan to make sure that none of the vaccine is "wasted".

I totally agree. There are so many folks skeptical to pull the trigger and want to wait a few months “to see how it goes” or have a medical condition that hasn’t been tested yet and want to electively delay for now. I know an ER nurse who is nursing who has been debating what to do (wean, wait a bit or go ahead.)

I know another direct covid nurse who is considering delaying on a stance of the elderly should go first. I think some in the priority groups will do the same.

I believe in some places they will run through their list of priority people far quicker than they anticipate and open it up to the public. I think some states will have limited availability to the general public in a couple of months.

 

[jane01jp]

I think that it's very likely that proof of vaccine will be required for a while to cruise.
So far all the "post covid trial run cruises" have failed. They've had a case pop up, they've had to put everyone in their room, return to port and cancel cruises. With the cruise lines bleeding money, the cost of fuel for these cancelled cruises is a huge issue. (Honestly I have no idea if cancelled cruises are being refunded, but at the least I'd guess the guests on the cancelled cruise would get a voucher for anther cruise).
With the vaccine, there's a fantastic chance that no one would have the virus and if someone did the odds of spreading it to others on board would be so small that I'd think that the cruise could continue with maybe the cabin in quarantine. Since the vaccines are minimizing symptoms, I'd think at some point, cruising would completely normalize again.
I don't think you could argue a limited market of cruisers because right now that number is zero. So allowing vaccinated guests to cruise is automatically a win for the cruise line.
And finally, although children aren't being vaccinated at this time, studies are showing that children don't spread the virus effectively. I'm not saying that's 100% but if the adults around said child are vaccinated as well, the chance of a breakout is minimal.
I think vaccines are the ticket to being able to safely travel again.

I saw this quote from a former Facebook executive, recommending that people who have been vaccinated wear a special mask to identify them:

"Everyone that gets vaccinated should all wear a mask of a special design or color so that they can signal to others that they are vaccinated," Chamath Palihapitiya, now the CEO of Social Capital and the chairman of Virgin Galactic, tweeted, adding, "#GodBlessScience."

 

[AquaDame]

Vaccinating 100 million people by the end of March would mean roughly 1 million per day, 7 days a week. That's a lot, even if people are champing at the bit to get them.

When people find out that they must continue to wear masks after the shots, that will put a big damper on enthusiasm going forward.

Maybe not - amongst my peers we all would rather masks stay a thing when we get sick in the future, just as they are widely used in many Asian countries. If I'd have been able to wear a mask when I got a cold sore in middle and high school? Game changer... I was SO needlessly embarrassed. FWIW I also have a hard time with masks - my husband insists I wear a KN95 or similar instead of a washable cloth one to work, but they pull on my ears dreadfully and dry my eyes out. Anytime I am there longer than 5 hours I get a migraine. I still am OK wearing them as long as I need to AND will take the vaccine when it's my turn.

Another quote from today regarding UPMC:

"Initial surveys have found that even some health care workers don't want to be first in line. Dr. Graham Snyder, who's led the vaccine task force at Pennsylvania health care giant UPMC, estimates that about half of its employees are willing to get the vaccine as soon as it's offered."

No offense, but being a health care worker doesn't necessarily make their opinons more valid than your average worker (much as I desperately want that to be the case...) https://www.businessinsider.com/oncology-nurse-bragged-violating-covid-19-rules-lost-her-job-2020-12

I saw this quote from a former Facebook executive, recommending that people who have been vaccinated wear a special mask to identify them:

"Everyone that gets vaccinated should all wear a mask of a special design or color so that they can signal to others that they are vaccinated," Chamath Palihapitiya, now the CEO of Social Capital and the chairman of Virgin Galactic, tweeted, adding, "#GodBlessScience."

I dislike this. Either you'll get preferential treatment regardless of whether or not you WOULD take the vaccine if you were able to, or people will just buy the "right" mask ala service animal vests.

 

[jane01jp]

Maybe not - amongst my peers we all would rather masks stay a thing when we get sick in the future, just as they are widely used in many Asian countries. If I'd have been able to wear a mask when I got a cold sore in middle and high school? Game changer... I was SO needlessly embarrassed. FWIW I also have a hard time with masks - my husband insists I wear a KN95 or similar instead of a washable cloth one to work, but they pull on my ears dreadfully and dry my eyes out. Anytime I am there longer than 5 hours I get a migraine. I still am OK wearing them as long as I need to AND will take the vaccine when it's my turn.



No offense, but being a health care worker doesn't necessarily make their opinons more valid than your average worker (much as I desperately want that to be the case...) https://www.businessinsider.com/oncology-nurse-bragged-violating-covid-19-rules-lost-her-job-2020-12



I dislike this. Either you'll get preferential treatment regardless of whether or not you WOULD take the vaccine if you were able to, or people will just buy the "right" mask ala service animal vests.

I would like to see the increased washing of hands continue to be a thing. In the years before I retired, I had a sink just outside and around the corner from my office. If I was forced to shake hands with someone, I could nonchalantly slip around the corner and wash my hands every time. Still not a fan of masks.

 

[Minnie1222]

Deleted

 

[jane01jp]

There are many positions in health care, with some opinions carrying more weight than others. I personally will be paying more attention to a respectable immunologist than a pail cleaner.

No question, although the higher up the food chain you go, the more political it gets.

 

[AquaDame]

There are many positions in health care, with some opinions carrying more weight than others. I personally will be paying more attention to a respectable immunologist than a pail cleaner.

Mores the pity though... the "pail cleaner" is far more likely to be the person caring for us, and dozens of others in a single day, working their butt off and needing as much protection as they can get.