The Vaccine Discussion Thread

[mevelandry]

They said the the same thing about people postponing until 2021.

But now the first half of the 2021 cruises are not happening... So people are keeping their bookings and changing dates to 2022 in hopes these will sail.

On a more personal note, I have booked four cruises during the pandemic —ended up having two cancelled... #3 and #4 are still on the schedule for now. I’m planning to book another one (yep, #5) as soon as it reopens and all of us have appointments for our second shots (Only one person in our party doesn‘t have it yet) because we want to try to sail before #3 and #4.

I expect a boom in sales as soon as a date (for reopening) will be announced.

 

[jerry557]

Important point also is the cruises that are being cancelled, some people are just simply rebooking them. When they cancel you, many of the cruise lines are giving you incentives to immediately re-book. So a lot of these reservations may not be brand new bookings. It can create an illusion of high demand.

That's why I think it will be a spike in the short term at restart. But it won't be sustained.....not at these prices, with what will almost certainly be suffocating COVID restrictions.

Like I said before...sure I want to go on vacation. But I'm not in a rush to spend several thousand dollars on a vacation with rules that rival a Bio Level 4 laboratory.

 

[AquaDame]

Do you really think sailing from San Juan is DCLs bread and butter. They also offered huge discounts on those cruises to military, travel agents etc. I’ve sailed on a number of off-season cruises from PC and they were packed with kids. The Dream is their money maker.

Where did I say that? You took my statement that every room was full when I sailed from there, agreeing there weren't as many kids, and jumped to bread and butter. I do not think they were hurting on those handful of sailings. I stubbornly still think you'll have more kids on a cruise during the middle of summer break than you will in January, even from PC, even if it feels packed. It absolutely makes sense that the shorter sailings close to WDW are a money maker for DCL, I don't think anyone has said otherwise.

What I take issue with is your continued statements that seem to suggest sailing from anywhere else would be asinine. If they can't sail from Florida then yeah, they're going to have to go elsewhere for a bit. Thus the sailings from the UK this summer (which still haven't officially materialized aside from some accidental leaks).

 

[n2mm]

I keep rebooking my cruises because I have placeholders attached to all 4 of them. Several are the older ones with $$obc. If I cancel, I lose it. I’ve moved all four 2021 cruises now into 2022. So my next booked cruise is February 2022. My daughter has 3 placeholder cruises she’s moved into 2022 too. We don’t really get excited when booking and feel bad for our TA. We only have Miss 14 year old granddaughter left to vaccinate. Though I think passport renewal are needed for a couple of our group. It’s like we lost an entire year, and trying to catch up.....

 

[mevelandry]

Important point also is the cruises that are being cancelled, some people are just simply rebooking them. When they cancel you, many of the cruise lines are giving you incentives to immediately re-book. So a lot of these reservations may not be brand new bookings. It can create an illusion of high demand.

Let’s agree to disagree.

IMO, re-bookings means that they are keeping their current clients, which is absolutely essential for them to survive the pandemic.

I’m confident that when sailings start again, we’ll see a surge in new bookings that will create balance and help them go back on track.

A lot of us will play catch up and cruise more in 2021 (if it happens) and 2022 than we ever did.

 

[DCLMP]

Where did I say that? You took my statement that every room was full when I sailed from there, agreeing there weren't as many kids, and jumped to bread and butter. I do not think they were hurting on those handful of sailings. I stubbornly still think you'll have more kids on a cruise during the middle of summer break than you will in January, even from PC, even if it feels packed. It absolutely makes sense that the shorter sailings close to WDW are a money maker for DCL, I don't think anyone has said otherwise.

What I take issue with is your continued statements that seem to suggest sailing from anywhere else would be asinine. If they can't sail from Florida then yeah, they're going to have to go elsewhere for a bit. Thus the sailings from the UK this summer (which still haven't officially materialized aside from some accidental leaks).

I’m not sure why your getting so angry. I never implied it was asinine. I just my opinion that its not sustainable. An opinion that’s all. This is a discussion board after all. I’ll move along.

 

[Sykes]

Of course bookings are high. There's a ton of pent up demand, and the cruise lines have basically removed the downside for speculative bookings. I have 4 cruises booked right now "just in case", but at most I'll take two of them. But I'm not sure that really speaks to the long-term forecast.

 

[DCLMP]

Of course bookings are high. There's a ton of pent up demand, and the cruise lines have basically removed the downside for speculative bookings. I have 4 cruises booked right now "just in case", but at most I'll take two of them. But I'm not sure that really speaks to the long-term forecast.

I’m getting ready to book a couple of European cruises for next summer. I actually applied for a zero interest for 12 months credit card to pay the 3,500 in deposits. I don’t want to actually “spend” any money on cruises until they resume. If that makes sense.
The five European cruises I considered haven’t gone up in price.
I’m surprised by this I thought there would be a lot of roller overs. Then again two years is a long to have thousands of dollars held by Disney. It’s possible more people are just taking the refunds. I rolled my 2020 to 2021 for a couple of months and then cancelled it and used the money for WDW.

 

[brentm77]

To the extent this report is accurate, this is great news for vaccines so far. Note the caveats that the data isn't necessarily fully accurate due to it being reliant on reporting and that it is probably skewed since some percentage (probably very high, in my opinion) of vaccinated individuals haven't actually been exposed to the virus post-vaccination. It is also worth noting, that even in breakthrough cases, the vaccine is likely to protect you from serious disease.

99.992% of fully vaccinated people have dodged COVID, CDC data shows

Cases of COVID-19 are extremely rare among people who are fully vaccinated, according to a new data analysis by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Among more than 75 million fully vaccinated people in the US, just around 5,800 people reported a “breakthrough” infection, in which they became infected with the pandemic coronavirus despite being fully vaccinated.

The numbers suggest that breakthroughs occur at the teeny rate of less than 0.008 percent of fully vaccinated people—and that over 99.992 percent of those vaccinated have not contracted a SARS-CoV-2 infection.

The figures come from a nationwide database that the CDC set up to keep track of breakthrough infections and monitor for any concerning signs that the breakthroughs may be clustering by patient demographics, geographic location, time since vaccination, vaccine type, or vaccine lot number. The agency will also be keeping a close eye on any breakthrough infections that are caused by SARS-CoV-2 variants, some of which have been shown to knock back vaccine efficacy.

So far, the vaccines appear to be highly effective and working as expected, according to the CDC’s analysis—which the agency provided to Ars via email.

The vast majority of people in the US have been vaccinated with one of the mRNA vaccines, made by Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech, which both had around 95 percent efficacy in Phase III clinical trials. Less than five percent of vaccinated people in the US have received the Johnson & Johnson adenovirus-based vaccine, which had a slightly lower efficacy of 72 percent in the US.

The extraordinary calculation that 99.992 percent of vaccinated people have not contracted the virus may reflect that they all simply have not been exposed to the virus since being vaccinated. Also, there are likely cases missed in reporting. Still, the data is a heartening sign.

“COVID-19 vaccines are effective and are a critical tool to bring the pandemic under control,” the agency said in its email. “To date, no unexpected patterns have been identified in case demographics or vaccine characteristics.”

 

[mevelandry]

To the extent this report is accurate, this is great news for vaccines so far. Note the caveats that the data isn't necessarily fully accurate due to it being reliant on reporting and that it is probably skewed since some percentage (probably very high, in my opinion) of vaccinated individuals haven't actually been exposed to the virus post-vaccination. It is also worth noting, that even in breakthrough cases, the vaccine is likely to protect you from serious disease.

99.992% of fully vaccinated people have dodged COVID, CDC data shows

Cases of COVID-19 are extremely rare among people who are fully vaccinated, according to a new data analysis by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Among more than 75 million fully vaccinated people in the US, just around 5,800 people reported a “breakthrough” infection, in which they became infected with the pandemic coronavirus despite being fully vaccinated.

The numbers suggest that breakthroughs occur at the teeny rate of less than 0.008 percent of fully vaccinated people—and that over 99.992 percent of those vaccinated have not contracted a SARS-CoV-2 infection.

The figures come from a nationwide database that the CDC set up to keep track of breakthrough infections and monitor for any concerning signs that the breakthroughs may be clustering by patient demographics, geographic location, time since vaccination, vaccine type, or vaccine lot number. The agency will also be keeping a close eye on any breakthrough infections that are caused by SARS-CoV-2 variants, some of which have been shown to knock back vaccine efficacy.

So far, the vaccines appear to be highly effective and working as expected, according to the CDC’s analysis—which the agency provided to Ars via email.

The vast majority of people in the US have been vaccinated with one of the mRNA vaccines, made by Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech, which both had around 95 percent efficacy in Phase III clinical trials. Less than five percent of vaccinated people in the US have received the Johnson & Johnson adenovirus-based vaccine, which had a slightly lower efficacy of 72 percent in the US.

The extraordinary calculation that 99.992 percent of vaccinated people have not contracted the virus may reflect that they all simply have not been exposed to the virus since being vaccinated. Also, there are likely cases missed in reporting. Still, the data is a heartening sign.

“COVID-19 vaccines are effective and are a critical tool to bring the pandemic under control,” the agency said in its email. “To date, no unexpected patterns have been identified in case demographics or vaccine characteristics.”

Do we know how long after the second shots these breakthrough happened?

We are being told that the mRNA vaccine is really effective up to 80% 2 to 4 weeks after the first shot and then 94-95% effective 2 to 4 weeks after the second shot.

I'd love to know if the breakthrough happened during that period or after.

 

[randumb0]

Do we know how long after the second shots these breakthrough happened?

We are being told that the mRNA vaccine is really effective up to 80% 2 to 4 weeks after the first shot and then 94-95% effective 2 to 4 weeks after the second shot.

I'd love to know if the breakthrough happened during that period or after.

My wife is in a FB group with PA's and one that works in the ER and has seen some people come to the ER with covid who are fully vaccinated. She also has had fully vaccinated coworkers come down with it. Everyone is at risk unless we bring our numbers down significantly

 

[soniam]

Do we know how long after the second shots these breakthrough happened?

We are being told that the mRNA vaccine is really effective up to 80% 2 to 4 weeks after the first shot and then 94-95% effective 2 to 4 weeks after the second shot.

I'd love to know if the breakthrough happened during that period or after.

The article I read, which seems to have the same data as @brentm77, said that it was 2+ weeks after the 2nd dose, so "full" efficacy.

 

[Intr3pid]

To the extent this report is accurate, this is great news for vaccines so far. Note the caveats that the data isn't necessarily fully accurate due to it being reliant on reporting and that it is probably skewed since some percentage (probably very high, in my opinion) of vaccinated individuals haven't actually been exposed to the virus post-vaccination. It is also worth noting, that even in breakthrough cases, the vaccine is likely to protect you from serious disease.

99.992% of fully vaccinated people have dodged COVID, CDC data shows

Cases of COVID-19 are extremely rare among people who are fully vaccinated, according to a new data analysis by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Among more than 75 million fully vaccinated people in the US, just around 5,800 people reported a “breakthrough” infection, in which they became infected with the pandemic coronavirus despite being fully vaccinated.

The numbers suggest that breakthroughs occur at the teeny rate of less than 0.008 percent of fully vaccinated people—and that over 99.992 percent of those vaccinated have not contracted a SARS-CoV-2 infection.

The figures come from a nationwide database that the CDC set up to keep track of breakthrough infections and monitor for any concerning signs that the breakthroughs may be clustering by patient demographics, geographic location, time since vaccination, vaccine type, or vaccine lot number. The agency will also be keeping a close eye on any breakthrough infections that are caused by SARS-CoV-2 variants, some of which have been shown to knock back vaccine efficacy.

So far, the vaccines appear to be highly effective and working as expected, according to the CDC’s analysis—which the agency provided to Ars via email.

The vast majority of people in the US have been vaccinated with one of the mRNA vaccines, made by Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech, which both had around 95 percent efficacy in Phase III clinical trials. Less than five percent of vaccinated people in the US have received the Johnson & Johnson adenovirus-based vaccine, which had a slightly lower efficacy of 72 percent in the US.

The extraordinary calculation that 99.992 percent of vaccinated people have not contracted the virus may reflect that they all simply have not been exposed to the virus since being vaccinated. Also, there are likely cases missed in reporting. Still, the data is a heartening sign.

“COVID-19 vaccines are effective and are a critical tool to bring the pandemic under control,” the agency said in its email. “To date, no unexpected patterns have been identified in case demographics or vaccine characteristics.”

To be honest, this is a bit of sensationalist reporting - as you can read in the comments to the article as well.

There were 5,800 breakthroughs among 75 million vaccinated people, but we have no idea how many of those 75 million were actually exposed to the virus. For an apples-to-apples comparison, we would have to see the incidence of the virus among the unvaccinated vs vaccinated under the same conditions.

The controlled studies put the efficacy at 95% max - and lower against the variants.

The good news - as before - is that the vaccines are great at preventing severity and hospitalization. See a more neutral take on this data in the link below:

https://www.poynter.org/reporting-e...ted-people-have-gotten-breakthrough-covid-19/

 

[brentm77]

To be honest, this is a bit of sensationalist reporting - as you can read in the comments to the article as well.

There were 5,800 breakthroughs among 75 million vaccinated people, but we have no idea how many of those 75 million were actually exposed to the virus. For an apples-to-apples comparison, we would have to see the incidence of the virus among the unvaccinated vs vaccinated under the same conditions.

The controlled studies put the efficacy at 95% max - and lower against the variants.

The good news - as before - is that the vaccines are great at preventing severity and hospitalization. See a more neutral take on this data in the link below:

https://www.poynter.org/reporting-e...ted-people-have-gotten-breakthrough-covid-19/

I don't disagree that is sensationalist, for the exact reason you stated. But, I don't think it is trying to imply 99.992% efficacy in the same manner as we are used to (i.e., 90% lower risk). They are reporting on a fully vaccinated person's overall odds so far, which I think is actually pretty close to what we would expect, if not a little inflated. I think the original group that received the Pfizer vaccine had something like a .04% rate of infection, for example.

But, I agree the article is a bit misleading because it isn't a reliable way to assess efficacy, which I think is your point.

Overall, I think the article has some value, since we are getting the opposite sensationalist stories on vaccine breakthrough's, which, so far, turn out to be exactly in line with what we would have expected when you run the math with the known efficacy rates. I think a lot of reporting is giving the wrong impression that the vaccines are ineffective, when the opposite is true.

 

[Mousequake]

Do we know how long after the second shots these breakthrough happened?

We are being told that the mRNA vaccine is really effective up to 80% 2 to 4 weeks after the first shot and then 94-95% effective 2 to 4 weeks after the second shot.

I'd love to know if the breakthrough happened during that period or after.

This is directly in my wife's wheelhouse-- infectious disease MD who is involved with pandemic reporting and planning at the state level. I just asked her, and standard practice is they're not considered breakthrough cases unless they've passed the 'full efficacy' time limit for their second dose (or first, in the case of J&J).

 

[mevelandry]

This is directly in my wife's wheelhouse-- infectious disease MD who is involved with pandemic reporting and planning at the state level. I just asked her, and standard practice is they're not considered breakthrough cases unless they've passed the 'full efficacy' time limit for their second dose (or first, in the case of J&J).

Thank you very much for the precisions.

Now, it will be interesting to see why/how the virus have been able to breakthrough.

 

[brentm77]

Thank you very much for the precisions.

Now, it will be interesting to see why/how the virus have been able to breakthrough.

Keep in mind, that outside of the South African variant breakthrough we saw in the Isreal study, so far, the breakthrough is what we would have expected to see with the known efficacy rates. Those over 60 are disproportionately affected, which is what we see with other vaccines due to declining immune systems. In the younger population, it could be immune compromised individuals or those who are exposed to a particularly heavy viral load, but the good news is that breakthrough cases are almost always mild, with hospitalization and death being very rare.

 

[DMMarla07860]

I see lot's a people saying breakthrough cases what exactly does that all mean? Sorry if it's a dumb question.

I'm fully vaccinated though I know I still have to be safe having a autoimmune illness myself.

 

[sugliac]

Just got my 2nd shot from Pfizer on Thursday! Had a pretty bad fever (hit 104!) but symptoms only lasted 24 hours. Feel great today and look forward to cruising this Summer

 

[brentm77]

I see lot's a people saying breakthrough cases what exactly does that all mean? Sorry if it's a dumb question.

I'm fully vaccinated though I know I still have to be safe having a autoimmune illness myself.

It's a great question. It means somebody who is fully vaccinated, including waiting the recommended time post vaccination, but who still gets the virus. The odds are very low, and you usually don't get a serious case if you have been vaccinated. The media reports them like the vaccine isn't working, but the numbers are in line with what we would expect, since no vaccine is 100% effective.