Robinrs
DIS Legend
- Joined
- Sep 7, 1999
- Messages
- 38,423
Stephieann said:
While searching for the margin I found this funny little prediction from 5/22/06, BEFORE the finale on Bettorsworld.com...
Back to the prediction......
When we look at the dial idol results from when there were 12 contestants on, Taylor Hicks was rated NUMBER ONE each of those weeks!! We're not just saying Taylor Hicks appeared to beat Katharine McPhee each of those weeks. We're saying he beat her, AND everyone else in the contest. NUMBER ONE each week. As a matter of fact, he was number one, or a narrow number two, each and every week that the public voted. Even when there were 24 contestants!
McPhee on the other hand, was never at the top of the dial idol results and was actually in the bottom half of the results several times.
Based on last weeks vote, we know that the votes were evenly split 33% for each of the final three with the outcome being decided by a slim margin. (But again, Hicks still beat Mcphee). So we now must try and figure out how the 33% of the vote that Elliot Yamin got, will be divided. Who will get more of Elliots votes, McPhee or Hicks?
Well, let's consider a few things.
For one, Taylor is from the South. The South is an American Idol, voting hot bed. The South has figured prominently in American Idol each year the show has been in existence. They love their American Idol in the South and they also know how to stand behind and support one of their own.
McPhee on the other hand, is from Los Angles. But hey, no one is really from Los Angeles. Everyone is from somewhere else. So there doesn't figure to be any hometown support. Hicks has just as good of a chance to draw votes from LA as McPhee does. While McPhee has NO CHANCE to draw votes from the South. This point was driven home even further when in last weeks show, each contestant went home for a day. Hicks had 12,000 people jammed into a mall to watch him perform and had fans lining the street while his "motorcade" drove by.........McPhee had a few relatives standing in her driveway. She point blank said she didn't have the hometown support like the others.
You simply have to draw the logical conclusion that Taylor will get most of Elliots votes. Elliot was from, you guessed it.....the South. (Virginia), and also had fans lining the street. Hicks figures to get the "South vote" from Elliots votes, as well as the Male over Female votes that Elliot was getting. He simply figures to get more of Elliots votes than McPhee.
Lastly, let's look at overall talent and marketability.
No question that McPhee is the better singer. Though Hicks is very good. But Taylor Hicks no doubt has a broader appeal to the masses. He's a much better performer than McPhee and will sell more records. McPhee is just another pretty voice. Taylor Hicks is the complete package. An Entertainer.
So, to recap :
1) Hicks beat McPhee in actual voting three times that we know for sure
2) Hicks was never in the bottom three
3) Hicks beat McPhee at Dial Idol every week
4) Hicks was #1 at Dial Idol each week of the final 12
5) Hicks gets the Southern vote (including most of Elliots 33%)
6) Hicks is the better all around entertainer
Bottom line is, -200 seems to be a bargain. Hicks has been wildly popular since the get go. Every factor we have to handicap this match up points towards Taylor Hicks winning this thing rather easily. So much so, that I would seriously have to question the results should he not win.
Be careful though. Screw ups with the votes have happened in the past. As recently as the week Chris Daugherty got the boot. Many fans were claiming their votes for Chris got redirected to someone else!!!
Anytime you have the outcome of something decided by telephone voting, there's room for all kinds of unexpected happenings. One year, if I'm not mistaken, there was a violent storm in the hometown of one of the contestants and thousands of voters were not able to cast their votes in what turned out to be a slim margin. So anything can happen!
But we'll keep our fingers crossed and make a wager on what appears to be an easy winner.
Taylor Hicks -200 at Pinnacle Sports to be the next.....................American Idol.
Good Luck!!!
Truer words were never said!
