The Liberal Thread #2 - No Debate Please

[lilyv]

Gerry Adams is a spokesman for the Irish Republican Movement which encompasses Sinn Féin and the Provisional Irish Republican Army, a proscribed organisation in the United Kingdom and the Republic of Ireland. Adams is widely regarded as having played a pivotal role in getting the IRA to give up its armed campaign against the UK in return for devolved government for Northern Ireland.

In other words Gerry Adams was a Peacemaker!

I'm not going to debate Northern Ireland. I lived several years in Great Britain. I know the players. You're opinion is shared by very, very few experts on this issue. Generally, Americans really don't get it. Free country, though.

 

[chris1gill]

You all do realize that the man saying this is what some consider 'The Newt Gingrich" of Ireland!

Yes, but unlike Lord Trimble of Lisnagarvey Newt Gingrich is no Nobel Peace Prize winner for bringing peace to N. Ireland...

 

[DISUNC]

I'm not going to debate Northern Ireland. I lived several years in Great Britain. I know the players. You're opinion is shared by very, very few experts on this issue. Generally, Americans really don't get it. Free country, though.

Not if you are Irish catholic

 

[wvrevy]

So, when is Geraldine Ferraro being fired by the Clinton campaign?

 

[Honu]

This is a post from the primaries forum at democraticunderground.com. Those that have been there, know why I can't link it. I know it's long, but it shows the odds.

THE MATH – Tuesday, March 10 – Before Mississippi

8:00 a.m. Eastern Time (US)

Changes and additions today:
- “Primary only” delegates vs. “Caucus only” delegates
- The “new elections” scenario
- Mississippi’s potential impact on the numbers
- Brokered Convention information
- Official Delegate Selection Rules for the 2008 Democratic National Convention

Delegates needed to win nomination – 2,024.5 (considering status quo)
Pledged Delegates in – 2,619.0 of 3,227.0 – 81.2%

TOTAL DELEGATES

Estimated Total Delegates as of March 11:
Hillary Clinton – 1,477.5 (547.0 short)
Barack Obama – 1,599.5 (425.0 short)
Remaining Delegates – 945.0
(Sources: AP, Wikipedia 3/11/08)

PLEDGED DELEGATES

Estimated Pledged Delegates as of March 11:
Hillary Clinton – 1,230.5
Barack Obama – 1,388.5
Remaining Pledged Delegates – 608.0
(Source: Wikipedia 3/11/08)

Maximum possible pledged delegates for each candidate:
Hillary Clinton – 1,838.5 (186.0 short of nomination)
Barack Obama – 1,996.5 (28.0 short of nomination)
Neither candidate can win the nomination with pledged delegates alone.

“Primary Only” Pledged Delegates as of March 11: (for informational purposes only)
Hillary Clinton – 1,076.0
Barack Obama – 1,088.0
(Source: Countdown with Keith Olbermann, 3/10/08)

“Caucus Only” Pledged Delegates as of March 11: (for informational purposes only)
Hillary Clinton – 154.5
Barack Obama – 300.5
(based on source for “primary only” pledged delegates above)

SUPERDELEGATES

Superdelegates (highest reported for each candidate):
Hillary Clinton – 247 (Source: AP 3/11/08)
Barack Obama – 211 (Source: AP 3/11/08)
Remaining Superdelegates – 337

POPULAR VOTE (for informational purposes only)

Status Quo as of March 11 (includes IA,ME,NV,WA):
Barack Obama – 13,388,857
Hillary Clinton – 12,748,162
(Source: Wikipedia 3/11/08 plus states listed above)

Primaries only (Status Quo) as of March 11 (includes WA):
Barack Obama – 12,533,944
Hillary Clinton – 12,150,484

Caucuses only (Status Quo) as of March 11:
Barack Obama – 471,170
Hillary Clinton – 264,302
(IA,NV,AK,AS,CO,ID,KS,MN,NM,ND,NE,VI,WA*,ME,HI,TX*,WY,Guam)

With Florida only added, as of March 11 (includes IA,ME,NV,WA):
Barack Obama – 13,965,071
Hillary Clinton – 13,619,148

With Michigan only added, as of March 11* (includes IA,ME,NV,WA):
Barack Obama – 13,388,857
Hillary Clinton – 13,076,471
*Uncommitted – 238,168 (Michigan only, Obama wasn’t on the ballot)

With Florida AND Michigan added, as of March 11* (includes IA,ME,NV,WA):
Barack Obama – 13,965,071
Hillary Clinton – 13,947,457
*Uncommitted – 238,168 (Michigan only, Obama wasn’t on the ballot)

FLORIDA AND MICHIGAN SCENARIOS

These are ALL the possible scenarios concerning Florida and Michigan. These scenarios are for pledged delegates only. Superdelegate counts are not included. The presumption here is that most remaining superdelegates will support the candidate who wins the most pledged delegates from the state and territory contests.

If new elections are held in Florida and Michigan, the primary season is still almost done. Pledged delegates in would be 2,619.0 of 3,540.0, or 74.0%.

Changes in the number of delegates are considered in the percentages below.
With Florida, add 185 delegates (Clinton 105, Obama 67)
With Michigan, add 128 delegates (Clinton 74, Obama 0)
With Florida and Michigan, add 313 delegates (Clinton 179, Obama 67)

The current status quo is: Neither Florida nor Michigan’s slate of delegates are seated. (See more below this section for information about what the “status quo” is)

Scenario 1 – Status Quo
CLINTON NEEDS 63.0%, OBAMA NEEDS 37.0%, in all remaining contests

Scenario 2 – New elections in Florida and Michigan
CLINTON NEEDS 58.6%, OBAMA NEEDS 41.4%, in all remaining contests

Scenario 3 – Michigan seated as is, Florida seated as is
CLINTON NEEDS 53.8%, OBAMA NEEDS 46.2%, in all remaining contests

Scenario 4 – Florida not seated, New election in Michigan
CLINTON NEEDS 60.7%, OBAMA NEEDS 39.3%, in all remaining contests

Scenario 5 – Michigan not seated, New election in Florida
CLINTON NEEDS 60.0%, OBAMA NEEDS 40.0%, in all remaining contests

Scenario 6 – Florida seated as is, Michigan not seated
CLINTON NEEDS 59.9%, OBAMA NEEDS 40.1%, in all remaining contests

Scenario 7 – Florida seated as is, New election in Michigan
CLINTON NEEDS 58.2%, OBAMA NEEDS 41.8%, in all remaining contests

Scenario 8 – Michigan seated as is, Florida not seated
CLINTON NEEDS 56.9%, OBAMA NEEDS 43.1%, in all remaining contests

Scenario 9 – Michigan seated as is, New election in Florida
CLINTON NEEDS 55.3%, OBAMA NEEDS 44.7%, in all remaining contests

THE NEW ELECTIONS SCENARIO

Looking at Scenario 2 above, if both Florida and Michigan hold new primaries, Senator Clinton will need to win an average of 58.6% in all the remaining contests, including Florida and Michigan. That’s considerably higher than the 53.8% she would need on average in every remaining contest if Florida and Michigan’s delegates were seated based on the January primary results. Senator Clinton has achieved 58% in only three states during this primary season.

On the other side of the coin, if new elections are held in Michigan and Florida, Senator Obama will need to win an average of 41.4% in all the remaining primaries, including Florida and Michigan. Even though that’s higher than the 37.0% he would need under status quo in all the remaining contests, it’s still highly probable to achieve.

Clinton’s wins over 58%: (3)
Arkansas – 70%
New York – 58%
Rhode Island – 58%

Obama’s wins over 58%: (18)
Idaho – 80%
Hawaii – 76%
Alaska – 75%
Kansas 74%
Nebraska – 68%
Washington – 68%
Colorado – 67%
Georgia – 66%
Minnesota – 66%
Illinois – 65%
Virginia – 64%
Louisiana – 62%
North Dakota – 62%
Wyoming – 61%
Maine – 60%
Maryland – 60%
Vermont – 59%
Wisconsin – 58%

MEMO FROM DNC DATED MARCH 5 REGARDING FLORIDA AND MICHIGAN

This is quoted here to show the current “Status Quo” used in the figures above.

Democratic National Committee’s official stance on Florida and Michigan as of March 5, in a press release from Howard Dean:

"We're glad to hear that the Governors of Michigan and Florida are willing to lend their weight to help resolve this issue. As we've said all along, we strongly encourage the Michigan and Florida state parties to follow the rules, so today's public overtures are good news. The rules, which were agreed to by the full DNC including representatives from Florida and Michigan over 18 months ago, allow for two options. First, either state can choose to resubmit a plan and run a process to select delegates to the convention; second, they can wait until this summer and appeal to the Convention Credentials Committee, which determines and resolves any outstanding questions about the seating of delegates. We look forward to receiving their proposals should they decide to submit new delegate selection plans and will review those plans at that time. The Democratic Nominee will be determined in accordance with party rules, and out of respect for the presidential campaigns and the states that did not violate party rules, we are not going to change the rules in the middle of the game.”

Source: http://www.democrats.org/a/2008/03/dean_statement_45.ph...

(emphasis mine)

PENNSYLVANIA

There are 158 pledged delegates in Pennsylvania. Winning with 70% here would require Senator Clinton to pick up 111 of those delegates to Senator Obama's 47.

If she does this, Senator Clinton would still need to win by an average margin of 60.6% in all the remaining contests, under status quo.

If new elections are held in both Michigan and Florida, Senator Clinton would still need to win by an average margin of 56.4% in all the remaining contests including Florida and Michigan.

Only if Michigan and Florida are BOTH seated as is, from the January elections, AND Senator Clinton takes Pennsylvania with 70%, would she catch up to Senator Obama. That's a very tall order, everything considered.

MISSISSIPPI’S IMPACT ON THE TOTAL OUTLOOK

Mississippi’s 33 pledged delegates represent more than 5% of the 608 remaining pledged delegates to be allocated in this nomination process, but it represents only 1% of all the 3,227 pledged delegates. This being so, today’s outcome in Mississippi will not move the scenario percentages much.

However, it will move the Pennsylvania scenario percentages a bit, and could put the contest out of reach of the Clinton campaign, even with a 70% win in Pennsylvania.

So, Mississippi will have an impact on Pennsylvania’s potential impact.

BROKERED CONVENTION

Feel free to share your thoughts and concerns about a possible brokered convention this year. I’d love to hear thoughtful conversation from all sides.

Link here from wikipedia:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brokered_convention

OFFICIAL DELEGATE SELECTION RULES FOR THE 2008 DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL CONVENTION

The link below takes you to the pdf file from the Democratic Party with the official rules for this year’s primary season. I’m still looking for actual rules or guidelines for the convention balloting process. Any links will be greatly appreciated!

Link here from democrats.org:
http://s3.amazonaws.com/apache.3cdn.net/3e5b3bfa1c1718d...

 

[Hound 109]

So, when is Geraldine Ferraro being fired by the Clinton campaign?

wvrevy, that was my take. Amusing in the ignorance of Ferraro's statement. Denounce the statement.

Now we have Obama demanding that she be fired (by definition in disgrace) & posters on the BO thread accusing Ferraro (a sick woman taking chemo) of being a racist & accusing Clinton (for not firing her) of being racist.

Hillary has logically responded by (in effect) telling him to pound sand.

wvrevy, can you ask your brothers & sisters over in the BO thread to put the torches & pitchforks away.....it's not looking to good to the voters of Penn, MI & FL.

 

[Hound 109]

This is a post from the primaries forum at democraticunderground.com. Those that have been there, know why I can't link it. I know it's long, but it shows the odds.

I'll make it easy for everyone. This is the stat that matters:


POPULAR VOTE (for informational purposes only)

Status Quo as of March 11 (includes IA,ME,NV,WA):
Barack Obama – 13,388,857
Hillary Clinton – 12,748,162
(Source: Wikipedia 3/11/08 plus states listed above)


& then whether or not HC can pick up 650K votes in the primary states left to vote (including FL & MI do-overs).

If she can't, it's BOs nomination, period.

If she can, the SuperDs will have an awful lot to talk about in Denver......(& so will we ).


Note: If the SuperDs overturn a BO delegate lead & popular vote majority, it will be dem. party suicide. If the FL & MI popular vote fails to become a reality....it will also be dem. party suicide.

 

[JARNJ3]

Note: If the SuperDs overturn a BO delegate lead & popular vote majority, it will be dem. party suicide. If the FL & MI popular vote fails to become a reality....it will also be dem. party suicide.

I'll agree with this - Clinton needs to have either one or the other - or she should concede (imho) - even if BO doesn't have the total needed to win the nomination outright.

I will be disappointed - and I still might not vote for him - but it will be the right thing for the super delegates to do. The people will have spoken (even if some of them were republicans and independents......)

 

[chris1gill]

wvrevy, that was my take. Amusing in the ignorance of Ferraro's statement. Denounce the statement.

Now we have Obama demanding that she be fired (by definition in disgrace) & posters on the BO thread accusing Ferraro (a sick woman taking chemo) of being a racist & accusing Clinton (for not firing her) of being racist.

Hillary has logically responded by (in effect) telling him to pound sand.

wvrevy, can you ask your brothers & sisters over in the BO thread to put the torches & pitchforks away.....it's not looking to good to the voters of Penn, MI & FL.

Yes, she received chemo the day before she made the statement more than a week ago, she is still a major fundraising advisor for the candidate. She has now reiterated her statement today having no chemo recently & still speaking out and fundraising.

If she believes it is easier for a black man to do better than a white woman with name recognition for decades she is sorrowfully mistaken, and that is what I will take this as. Perhaps she did not mean to be racist, I do not know, I have no knowledge of her intent. What she said at face value is racist at best.

 

[crazyforgoofy]

wvrevy, that was my take. Amusing in the ignorance of Ferraro's statement. Denounce the statement.

Now we have Obama demanding that she be fired (by definition in disgrace) & posters on the BO thread accusing Ferraro (a sick woman taking chemo) of being a racist & accusing Clinton (for not firing her) of being racist.

Hillary has logically responded by (in effect) telling him to pound sand.

wvrevy, can you ask your brothers & sisters over in the BO thread to put the torches & pitchforks away.....it's not looking to good to the voters of Penn, MI & FL.

Did you read what she posted on her 'second go round' of comments to the paper in California and to the NYT?

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/03/11/ferraro-race-comments-th_n_91047.html


UPDATE: Former Democratic Vice Presidential candidate Geraldine Ferraro defended controversial comments she made about Barack Obama, saying that she was being attacked because she was white. Ferraro, a Hillary Clinton supporter, told the Daily Breeze, a Los Angeles-area newspaper:

"Any time anybody does anything that in any way pulls this campaign down and says let's address reality and the problems we're facing in this world, you're accused of being racist, so you have to shut up," Ferraro said. "Racism works in two different directions. I really think they're attacking me because I'm white. How's that?"

Ferraro also told the New York Times that the Obama campaign had "twisted" her words:

"Every time that campaign is upset about something, they call it racist," she said. "I will not be discriminated against because I'm white. If they think they're going to shut up Geraldine Ferraro with that kind of stuff, they don't know me."


But she gets a pass because she may or may not be on chemotherapy? Gimme a freakin break. If Senator Clinton does not strongly distance herself from Ferraro's comments then she's race baiting the voters in the rural part of Pennsylvania and it will come back to bite her in the ***. Mark my words.

 

[NewJersey]

I really don't understand the hypocrisy of Hillary Clinton. She chides Obama for only rejecting and not denouncing Farakhan's comments - yet, she refuses to reject, denounce, or release Ferraro as a fundraiser. She essentially throws a fit that Powers called her a monster; Powers apologized and Obama released her from his campaign.

And how does her going through chemo have anything to do with this?

 

[crazyforgoofy]

I really don't understand the hypocrisy of Hillary Clinton. She chides Obama for only rejecting and not denouncing Farakhan's comments - yet, she refuses to reject, denounce, or release Ferraro as a fundraiser. She essentially throws a fit that Powers called her a monster; Powers apologized and Obama released her from his campaign.

And how does her going through chemo have anything to do with this?

If they're intimating that her mind is somehow altered so she's not responsible that's worse than just throwing her out of the campaign.

The woman who truly owes her vice presidential nomination to affirmative action has a heckuva lotta nerve saying Obama got where he is because he's black. He has tons more gravitas than she ever had. Sheesh.

 

[chris1gill]

It's the sorrow card, grossly under rated... and used quite effectively here!

 

[NewJersey]

If they're intimating that her mind is somehow altered so she's not responsible that's worse than just throwing her out of the campaign.

The woman who truly owes her vice presidential nomination to affirmative action has a heckuva lotta nerve saying Obama got where he is because he's black. He has tons more gravitas than she ever had. Sheesh.

Oh come on. If they are using that argument, how do you explain this comment:

"If Jesse Jackson were not black, he wouldn't be in the race," she said.

Really. The cite is an April 15, 1988 Washington Post story (byline: Howard Kurtz), available only on Nexis.

 

[Reflection]

If they're intimating that her mind is somehow altered so she's not responsible that's worse than just throwing her out of the campaign.

The woman who truly owes her vice presidential nomination to affirmative action has a heckuva lotta nerve saying Obama got where he is because he's black. He has tons more gravitas than she ever had. Sheesh.

And I believe this is most definitely playing the fear card amongst those who are anti-affirmative action. The hypocrisy and hubris are unbelievable.

And sorry I'm not buying the sympathy card being trotted out because Ferrarro is on chemo.

 

[Hound 109]

Did you read what she posted on her 'second go round' of comments to the paper in California and to the NYT?

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/03/11/ferraro-race-comments-th_n_91047.html


UPDATE: Former Democratic Vice Presidential candidate Geraldine Ferraro defended controversial comments she made about Barack Obama, saying that she was being attacked because she was white. Ferraro, a Hillary Clinton supporter, told the Daily Breeze, a Los Angeles-area newspaper:

"Any time anybody does anything that in any way pulls this campaign down and says let's address reality and the problems we're facing in this world, you're accused of being racist, so you have to shut up," Ferraro said. "Racism works in two different directions. I really think they're attacking me because I'm white. How's that?"

Ferraro also told the New York Times that the Obama campaign had "twisted" her words:

"Every time that campaign is upset about something, they call it racist," she said. "I will not be discriminated against because I'm white. If they think they're going to shut up Geraldine Ferraro with that kind of stuff, they don't know me."


But she gets a pass because she may or may not be on chemotherapy? Gimme a freakin break. If Senator Clinton does not strongly distance herself from Ferraro's comments then she's race baiting the voters in the rural part of Pennsylvania and it will come back to bite her in the ***. Mark my words.

She denounced the statement. Immediately.

Geraldine is old & dumb & is a figurehead on the campaign. & she's also an historic figure (& she's no longer an elected official). BO should let it go. Even wvreavy (above) saw the comment as dumb but the situation as amusing.

Guys, you need to pick your battles..... & calling GF a racist won't help BO in the short term or in the long term.....& is inaccurate. Don't any of you have parents or grandparents who say dumb things??

 

[chris1gill]

Don't any of you have parents or grandparents who say dumb things??

Yes, but they are on neither campaign... If Ferraro has become senile as you intimate it would be best for Clinton to be rid of her.

 

[Reflection]

......
Guys, you need to pick your battles..... & calling GF a racist won't help BO in the short term or in the long term.....& is inaccurate. Don't any of you have parents or grandparents who say dumb things??

Now, Hound, this is the DIS, where no one ever says anything dumb, has bad debt, belongs in $150K to $250K club and never whines about stimulous rebates, and, lastly, our parents and grandparents were in the G&T programs back in the day and could never have said anything dumb.

 

[LuvDuke]

And I believe Hilllary Clinton just hammered home the last nail in her coffin when it comes to many Democrats. The least we Democrats could expect is from our candidates is to take a strong stand against racism. Clinton tore it for me today and I suspect I"m not the only Democrat. There is no candidate who is worth flushing one's principles down the crapper. Ferraro's remarks were racist and she compounded that racism with her explanation. Clinton's "distancing herself" from Ferraro's racism while still keeping her on as a campaign fundraiser is unacceptable to this Democrat.

I watched what happened to the Republican party when it's members continued voting for Republicans even though the Republican party betrayed it's principles for the sake of political expediency. This Democrat will not reward any candidate with my vote who betrays Democratic principles.

The sooner the party shows Clinton the door the better it will be for the party and the country.

 

[LuvDuke]

She denounced the statement. Immediately.

Geraldine is old & dumb & is a figurehead on the campaign. & she's also an historic figure (& she's no longer an elected official). BO should let it go. Even wvreavy (above) saw the comment as dumb but the situation as amusing.

Guys, you need to pick your battles..... & calling GF a racist won't help BO in the short term or in the long term.....& is inaccurate. Don't any of you have parents or grandparents who say dumb things??

Ferraro is a racist and she is a racist who continues working for Hillary Clinton with Clinton's blessing. End of story.

The situation isn't amusing. It's disgusting.