The Future of Dues/Maint. Fees...

Discussion in 'Purchasing DVC' started by jsand99, Jan 9, 2019.

  1. jsand99

    jsand99 Mouseketeer

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    The historical dues increase at AKV of 10% for 2019 is one of the major reasons I haven't jumped on another contract since our first attempt didn't make it through ROFR last month. Do you guys feel this is a one time hike and dues will go back to the historical average of 3%-4% a year in 2020 forward, or has Disney set a new precedent and 7%-10% will be the new norm? I've ran the 7%-10% increase through a "break even" spread sheet and it seems in most scenarios you are better off paying Disney's rack rates instead of going with DVC.
     
  2. erionm

    erionm DIS Veteran

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    2019 will see significant wage increases ($3 per hour) across WDW. This is a large chuck of the increase in maintenance fees. There will also be wage increases in 2020 and 2021, but those will only be $1 per hour each.
     
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  4. jsand99

    jsand99 Mouseketeer

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    So you think we will see a return to the norm for maintenance fees going forward?
     
  5. TheMick424

    TheMick424 Mouseketeer

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    I've been having a similar debate, interested in what others think. This latest increase was pretty steep, especially for someone who bought last year and now is paying dues for the first time. We bought 220 points via resale, and the timing wasn't ideal. I started mulling the idea of purchase with the plan to do the bulk on resale with a small 25 direct add, and then they announced the 75 point minimum for perks. Doh! I wasn't far enough along to get anything through before the restrictions went in, so we just opted to do resale and bought a contract we thought we could use for EOY trips. Now, addonitis has hit because I'd rather have the option to go annually, but I just keep calculating the cost per night of my stay and it is still pretty steep (from someone who historically rented a townhome offsite). Our issue is while we are traveling with our kids, we don't have interest in a studio. I know this puts me in the minority, but my vacations are much more enjoyable when we have space and the kids don't have to share a bed. Down the road, our needs will change, but I just don't know what to make of it.

    By my calculations, if you just consider MF as the rate (excluding your buy-in), a week in a 2BR Savannah view during Magic Season runs about $395/night. Yes, that is far less than rack rate and also renting points. But it is still a lot of money! I guess I need to reconcile my frugal nature with my love of Disney and figure out which one wins.
     
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  6. Matty B13

    Matty B13 DIS Veteran

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    Separate sleeping spaces from the kids, makes any vacation better. We specifically bought DVC to have access for 2 bedroom units, this is why we didn't buy into Poly, because of only having studios (even though we love the resort). Buying DVC is much cheaper than getting 2 hotel rooms or a suite, plus you get a kitchen.
     
  7. jsand99

    jsand99 Mouseketeer

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    I had the maintenance fee news and the 2020 point chart drop while I was waiting on ROFR. Those things plus the thought of these new resale restrictions possibly having a negative impact on resale value has cost me a little sleep the past few nights. I'm having a hard time determining if DVC is right for my family now. I also have a hard time believing that Disney would continue with the ridiculously high maintenance fee increases that could make rack rates more attractive than DVC.
     
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  8. jsand99

    jsand99 Mouseketeer

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    I agree about having separate sleeping spaces from the kids. Our two kids are soon to be at ages where they will no longer be sharing a bed. Can you share how DVC is cheaper than 2 hotel rooms or a suite? I would love to add this point to the argument I'm having with myself.
     
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  9. TheMick424

    TheMick424 Mouseketeer

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    We also love the Poly and stayed there once for 2 nights before a cruise in a studio. It was beautiful and we loved the resort (especially the pools), but I think it might be tough for a family of 4 for longer than a few days. Especially when your DS refers to his younger sister as a "fungus" on a regular basis...
     
  10. Ben E N

    Ben E N DIS Veteran

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    What makes you say Disney won't raise rack rates just as much, if not more than, DVC dues? I would consider that to almost be a certainty unless the economy significantly dips.
     
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  11. Greg36

    Greg36 Mouseketeer

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    It's really difficult to predict what will happen but I have to agree that Disney would not want MF's so high that it really made the comparison to rack rates a poor bargain. This would ultimately hurt their ability to sell points. Now, if for some reason they get out of building new DVC or selling points at some time in the future, who knows what would happen... I think we will see MF rates rise higher then historical averages over the next couple of years due to higher operating costs (e.g., increased min wage). Hopefully after that it will go back to more historical averages...
     
  12. paults

    paults HOME IS WHERE BWV IS

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    if they dues goes much higher we will be selling. Disney is out of control.
     
  13. Matty B13

    Matty B13 DIS Veteran

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    The cost to buy enough points for 2 bedroom units at resorts with villas and hotels is cheaper than getting 2 hotel rooms at the same resort. We are staying at VGF this February in a 2 bedroom unit for about $4000 for the whole week, the same unit cash is over $1200/night if you can get it, and most of the hotel rooms are $580/night or more so $580x2x7days. But you could probably do better cash wish at a "value" resort at Disney.

    So it really matters on where you want to stay, if it is deluxe resorts in multiple hotel rooms, you can save big with DVC, but you also have to have close to 400 points a year to go every year.
     
  14. DizneyLizzy

    DizneyLizzy DIS Veteran

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    Don't forget laundry! I never did laundry on vacations until I started staying DVC. Now I am so spoiled that when I travel outside of DVC, I panic about the laundry situation :scared: Having access to free anytime laundry when traveling with kids is amazing. We bought DVC so we could stay in one beds while our kids are little...although I have a feeling we'll be staying in them even when our kids are older now that we're used to them.
     
  15. Matty B13

    Matty B13 DIS Veteran

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    We would have bought Poly direct if it had 1&2 bedroom units, even with the bungalows. When we did a tour 2 years ago, I spoke to the CM showing us the "show" model at the Poly, and asked why they didn't have any 1&2 bedrooms and she didn't have an answer, but said that they were hearing that a lot from prospective buyers.
     
  16. skippytx

    skippytx Mouseketeer

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    I'm way less worried about the future costs of DVC MF than I am over all the costs associated with a trip to WDW. Ticket prices are up significantly, hell, everything is up. From Mickey Bars, to Ears, to Hotel Room rates. It's all up across the board. That's just how things work.

    My first trip to WDW was in 2015 at an AoA Family suite and we paid about 350 a night for our trip. Same room is north of 500 a night now. I think our 10 day PH tickets were about 400 a piece. Same 10 day PH for the same week is about 540 on UT right now. I'm looking at almost 600 more just in tickets for the 4 of us to go on the same trip. Not really worried about the less than 100 dollar jump in dues.
     
  17. Greg36

    Greg36 Mouseketeer

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    I agree the rise in costs across the board are pretty significant... I think the MF/T are significant though as at least historically they have not tended to be rolled back whereas Disney will discount, sometimes heavily, for the other parts of a Disney vacation when the market is soft... I suppose theoretically MF's could at some point be cut back as well. Maybe that will happen if they decide to cut back on services or find efficiencies some how...
     
  18. jarestel

    jarestel DIS Veteran DIS Lifetime Sponsor

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    Though it's probably not terribly prudent to use past performance to gauge future increases, one thing is almost 100% certain: dues will continue to rise and some years will have higher increases than others due to various external factors (taxes, wages, ever shortening rehab schedules, etc). DVC dues are a major wildcard when people are drawing up their savings spreadsheets and one that is probably estimated too conservatively, IMO.
     
  19. TheMick424

    TheMick424 Mouseketeer

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    This is actually the kind of info I need to keep in front of mind. Longer term, I won't want a 2BR every year, but I don't think we can afford to hold 400 points. I was targeting 300. Maybe I need to rethink my strategy. Sigh...
     
  20. 4luv2cdisney

    4luv2cdisney DIS Veteran

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    Dues cover the costs of operating / maintaining the resort. I'm pretty sure there is no premium in there charging you for Star Wars Land as there will be for rack rate rooms and ticket prices. Hotell side you are getting charged for operating and maintaining the resort ascwell, it's just not broken down for you.

    Unless some catastrophe strikes a particular resort, I'd say your dues are a safer bet than Disney 's "let's see how far we can push them" pricing. The difference is you're locked into your DVC whereas you have a choice to say "no thanks" to paying hotel pricing.

    @TheMick424 You are never going to get the numbers to work in your favor vs off-site accommodations. We are "on-site people". If my option was WDW off-site or take a different vacation, take a different vacation wins everytime. If off-site was an option for us, I'm 99 percent certain I'd never own DVC. If you find you still enjoy your off-site accommodations, you are probably better off just doing that every other year and not adding on.

    I am much more concerned with their apparent ability to manipulate the points charts than rising dues, limiting benefits, OR even limiting my places to stay.
     
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  21. jsand99

    jsand99 Mouseketeer

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    I most certainly believe Disney will raise rack rates. The question, just like dues, is how much? I factored in a 5% a year increase in rack rates in the spreadsheet.
     

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