The demise of unrestricted resorts, by year.

[Girlstar30]

Okay, with all the talk about the “smell” on the monorail, I will share that years ago on this discussion board it was mentioned that it was the GLUE used under the carpeting that caused the urine-like smell.

I have yet to notice, but now I'm going to be hyper aware

 

[maui22]

Most people know that the availability of unrestricted resorts will eventually dwindle to nothing (assuming DVC maintains their current policy), but I haven't seen anyone map out what the dwindling will look like.

I made this spreadsheet to show how it will work for the various resort owners. This is the number of AWAY RESORTS a resale owner will have access to (it does not count the home resort). That is why 13 is shown while the Original 14 is still intact:
View attachment 959639

A few observations:

• CCV is known for being the last of the Original 14 (the last unrestricted resort) but that distinction is moot. After 2066, unrestricted CCV points will still exist, but won't be valid at any other resort.
• Has there been any discussion about whether resale owners can still access OKW as an away resort between 2043 and 2057? The spreadsheet assumes the answer is yes.
• After 2057, all unrestricted WDW resorts will be in the Magic Kingdom area.

Who is talking about 2057? We are talking about 2042 which is 16 years and 9 months away.

Highlighted the line.

 

[VGCgroupie]

All those time don't take in to account the wait on a bus which is going to happen way more than a skyliner. I agree BLT is not great for other parks but you find people who post about BLT seeming go to MK much more often than the normal guest seemingly.

Again I will repeat this and I am moving on. The BUS is a crapshoot, with little information (especially away from the parks), does have massive long waits at random times in the day not just open/close, and can be at capacity (even at random times of the day). Another issue with the bus is if you are trying to do rope drop and the bus is at capacity you are missing out.

Regarding 81 minutes roundtrip to Epcot? Never stayed there because of the wonky way to get to Epcot so will take your word on it.

Yep and if you have been standing there 20 minutes and 3 different families w/ one person in a scooter rolls up right when the next bus arrives they get priority, then you have to wait and hope the CM doesnt move like a Flash Slothmore while getting all 3 scooters into the bus and secured and then if you miss the bus you miss it or if you somehow make the bus you could end up riding with either a crotch or butt in your face when its so full people have to stand.

I had said in another thread I wouldn't elaborate as to why I hated the bus so much, since I didn't want to potentially offend anyone but here is my reasoning.

 

[Tatebeck]

TouringPlans used to have a chart of (measured average) transportation times between resort and each primary destination using Disney transport and via driving, but I can't dig it up.

I found a list here, though I don't know how reliable it is. The times are VERY different from what was posted earlier in the thread. Though it could be accurate because 81 minutes from earlier in the thread seems way too long for BLT to Epcot. I have done that multiple times and it didn't seem long to me at all, maybe 30 min total when we did it.
https://magicguides.com/travel-times-between-disney-world-resorts-and-parks/

This is a very accurate description. My theory is kids have accidents and it seeps into the crevices of the monorail and can't be cleaned. We've never not smelled it, kids have never not commented on it.

Okay, with all the talk about the “smell” on the monorail, I will share that years ago on this discussion board it was mentioned that it was the GLUE used under the carpeting that caused the urine-like smell.

I think it definitely could be the glue or even the plastic shells of the monorail. I have occasionally encountered old plastics that grossly smell like bodily fluids as they get older. Mostly either urine or vomit... And if you google it is definitely is a real thing

 

[Brian Noble]

maybe 30 min total when we did it.

I believe that prior post was round trip. BLT->EP is shorter than the reverse. I don't think it is 45 in the reverse, but I do remember finding the monorail between BLT and Epcot to be....leisurely.

 

[VGCgroupie]

I think it definitely could be the glue or even the plastic shells of the monorail. I have occasionally encountered old plastics that grossly smell like bodily fluids as they get older. Mostly either urine or vomit... And if you google it is definitely is a real thing

I would've for sure thought it was just pee.

 

[Brian Noble]

Maybe it is a piquant mix.

 

[Sandisw]

I understand that, but the concern about where all the SAP SSR buyers will be able to stay after 2042 is so overblown IMO. The resort itself is not bad, OKW traders will be gone as well, and even if resale buyers at the remaining OG "preferred" resorts don't trade out as often, or even at all, plenty of direct owners will be looking at swapping around to whatever the newer DVC's are at the time.

And someone on reddit drew this map a few years ago, I could see Disney expanding the skyliner at some point, assuming the maintenance/upkeep on it doesn't get out of hand financially.

View attachment 960751

Since the resale points bought today at the more popular places of VGF, CCV, BLT and Poly can’t trade to new resorts, there may not be as many of those owners leaving, because the choices for them will be SSR, OKW, and AKV (excluding trading amongst themselves)

It’s why I think it will be more competitive at 7 months for the big three to get into those when looking at that then now.

Doesn’t mean impossible, but just different and so I think if you are buying a place like SSR for sleep around resale, one should at least go in recognizing this as a possibility.

 

[jolynne28]

Since the resale points bought today at the more popular places of VGF, CCV, BLT and Poly can’t trade to new resorts, there may not be as many of those owners leaving, because the choices for them will be SSR, OKW, and AKV (excluding trading amongst themselves)

It’s why I think it will be more competitive at 7 months for the big three to get into those when looking at that then now.

Doesn’t mean impossible, but just different and so I think if you are buying a place like SSR for sleep around resale, one should at least go in recognizing this as a possibility.

Yes I did acknowledge this, but I still believe that direct owners swapping out to whatever is new after 2042 will free up some of the availability that will be lost from resale owners at the remaining popular O14 maybe not trading out as much, if ever.

 

[Sandisw]

Yes I did acknowledge this, but I still believe that direct owners swapping out to whatever is new after 2042 will free up some of the availability that will be lost from resale owners at the remaining popular O14 maybe not trading out as much, if ever.

But you’d have new direct owners at the new resorts wanting in to these resorts too…which is why I am putting those as a wash.

 

[jolynne28]

But you’d have new direct owners at the new resorts wanting in to these resorts too…which is why I am putting those as a wash.

Sure, but it all hinges on what's available after 2042, which no one knows.

 

[atthebeachclub]

AKL is:

• 36 minutes round-trip to Magic Kingdom
• 34 minutes round-trip to Epcot
• 32 minutes round-trip to Hollywood Studios
• 30 minutes round-trip to Animal Kingdom
• 168 minutes total commuting time using your MK-MK-Epcot-HS-AK ratio

Contemporary is:

• 14 minutes round-trip to Magic Kingdom
• 81 minutes round-trip to Epcot
• 38 minutes round-trip to Hollywood Studios
• 50 minutes round-trip to Animal Kingdom
• 197 minutes total commuting time using your MK-MK-Epcot-HS-AK ratio

AKL is "bad" to Magic Kingdom but Contemporary is so bad to Epcot that it more than offsets it.

I don't dispute that the Crescent Lake resorts are the most convenient, that is indisputably correct. I'm strictly comparing Animal Kingdom Lodge to Magic Kingdom area resorts.

Where did these numbers come from? They don’t match the only commute time source I’ve found (www.touringplans.com).

 

[WinterSolider]

Where did these numbers come from? They don’t match the only commute time source I’ve found (www.touringplans.com).

I think I'm not supposed to say because it's a competing Disney website to this one. But I was local for years and these are in line with my experience.

Is there something that looks particularly off to you?

 

[atthebeachclub]

I think I'm not supposed to say because it's a competing Disney website to this one. But I was local for years and these are in line with my experience.

Is there something that looks particularly off to you?

The round trip BLT to Epcot number seems quite high. I mean…I believe it is possible, but Touring Plans doesn’t say that.

 

[Tatebeck]

Yes I did acknowledge this, but I still believe that direct owners swapping out to whatever is new after 2042 will free up some of the availability that will be lost from resale owners at the remaining popular O14 maybe not trading out as much, if ever.

Sure, but it all hinges on what's available after 2042, which no one knows.

But you can infer based on the way things are going.

You have to put yourself in the shoes of the remaining direct and resale owners after 2042. Over time, openings are really only created when members decide to use their points at another resort at 7 months or they let points expire, which most members rightfully avoid.

• Remaining resale owners at the nicer O14 resorts: (like VGF, Poly, BLT, etc.) will have very few resorts to choose from that they may feel are good enough to trade into. This most likely will mean very few swap outs. Reduced swap outs further reduces availability into these resorts. Also any current direct owners who sell before now and 2042 will further reduce the availability as the new owners will have less options.

• Remaining direct owners at the nicer O14 resorts: Newer resorts may be very nice, but may also have even higher point charts if the trajectory continues or if they have amazing locations. It will be up to these members to decide if it is worth it to swap, and any openings will be taken very quickly by any interested parties between the remaining resale O14 owners and the entire huge group of direct owners. And the number of direct owners is going to grow with every new resort built.

• Direct owners at the newer restricted resorts. These owners can book anywhere, but will likely only want to regularly swap into other newer resorts or the nicer of the remaining O14 resorts. If the older O14 resorts are hard to get into, they may keep an eye out for stays at those resorts and set waitlists ASAP to try and get in. They may treat the best few remaining O14 resorts like we do BCV, BWV, or VGC now. And this group will be growing with every new resort, and will be much larger than the remaining resale SAP crowd who depend on 7 month availability.

• Resale owners at restricted resorts. They must stay at their home resort, and that's it. So they will likely book something and then use it or rent it out if they can't. This may lead to less availability once restricted resorts are sold out as everyone will likely use the home resort period aggressively. Which will lead to less swaps being available.

So I foresee less swap availability across the board, and with a growing number of direct owners competing with the same SAP owners, I would not want to be an owner who 100% relies on the 7 month availability to get what I want post 2042.
Whew.

 

[eticketplease]

CCV is known for being the last of the Original 14 (the last unrestricted resort) but that distinction is moot. After 2066, unrestricted CCV points will still exist, but won't be valid at any other resort.

Certainly agree for the most part. If you are in the market for CCV I would be doing so for Home Resort priority down the road but in the meantime with the length of contract and they dues it isn't bad as SAP until the resorts start dropping off.

I've always stated SSR is the best WDW property for SAP as it will still have the most resorts to pick from of the non restricted resorts after 1/31/42 especially if you are like us and book the rooms that nobody wants, the 1 bedroom

 

[WinterSolider]

The round trip BLT to Epcot number seems quite high. I mean…I believe it is possible, but Touring Plans doesn’t say that.

TouringPlans is wrong on this, and I love TouringPlans. They say 23 minutes to Epcot via monorail.

That is not even close to accurate.

 

[Girlstar30]

As long as you are flexible, there will always be something to book even after 2042 using SAP points

 

[Sandisw]

TouringPlans is wrong on this, and I love TouringPlans. They say 23 minutes to Epcot via monorail.

That is not even close to accurate.

Only way BLT to Epcot is 23 minutes one way is if you don’t do any waiting. But we have gotten there in 30 minutes plenty of times.

Way home is a different story. But as I said, this is why we split stay!

 

[Tatebeck]

Certainly agree for the most part. If you are in the market for CCV I would be doing so for Home Resort priority down the road but in the meantime with the length of contract and they dues it isn't bad as SAP until the resorts start dropping off.

I've always stated SSR is the best WDW property for SAP as it will still have the most resorts to pick from of the non restricted resorts after 1/31/42 especially if you are like us and book the rooms that nobody wants, the 1 bedroom

What do you mean by the "most resorts to pick from" after 2042?

Wouldn't it have the same 7 month swapability as every other O14 resort?

Minus any real home resort period advantage, so at best I would say it is tied between all the remaining resorts or I would say it has the LEAST overall resorts to pick from in total due to it being the resort of last resort without much home resort period appeal.