The demise of unrestricted resorts, by year.

[jolynne28]

But you can infer based on the way things are going.

You have to put yourself in the shoes of the remaining direct and resale owners after 2042. Over time, openings are really only created when members decide to use their points at another resort at 7 months or they let points expire, which most members rightfully avoid.

• Remaining resale owners at the nicer O14 resorts: (like VGF, Poly, BLT, etc.) will have very few resorts to choose from that they may feel are good enough to trade into. This most likely will mean very few swap outs. Reduced swap outs further reduces availability into these resorts. Also any current direct owners who sell before now and 2042 will further reduce the availability as the new owners will have less options.

• Remaining direct owners at the nicer O14 resorts: Newer resorts may be very nice, but may also have even higher point charts if the trajectory continues or if they have amazing locations. It will be up to these members to decide if it is worth it to swap, and any openings will be taken very quickly by any interested parties between the remaining resale O14 owners and the entire huge group of direct owners. And the number of direct owners is going to grow with every new resort built.

• Direct owners at the newer restricted resorts. These owners can book anywhere, but will likely only want to regularly swap into other newer resorts or the nicer of the remaining O14 resorts. If the older O14 resorts are hard to get into, they may keep an eye out for stays at those resorts and set waitlists ASAP to try and get in. They may treat the best few remaining O14 resorts like we do BCV, BWV, or VGC now. And this group will be growing with every new resort, and will be much larger than the remaining resale SAP crowd who depend on 7 month availability.

• Resale owners at restricted resorts. They must stay at their home resort, and that's it. So they will likely book something and then use it or rent it out if they can't. This may lead to less availability once restricted resorts are sold out as everyone will likely use the home resort period aggressively. Which will lead to less swaps being available.

So I foresee less swap availability across the board, and with a growing number of direct owners competing with the same SAP owners, I would not want to be an owner who 100% relies on the 7 month availability to get what I want post 2042.
Whew.

Whew is right, that was impressive! I’m not disputing any of your points, and I think you made this one earlier: SSR and AKV may be the new BWV/BCV/BRV for some people strictly from a point chart perspective. So as new/higher pt chart resorts come online, or the previously mentioned 3 come back online at much higher points/night, the lower point resorts might become more appealing.

Or all of us SSR SAP people will have to accept our fate and ride the internal bus loop to hell.

 

[PolyRob]

I believe that prior post was round trip. BLT->EP is shorter than the reverse. I don't think it is 45 in the reverse, but I do remember finding the monorail between BLT and Epcot to be....leisurely.

Thank you for pointing that out. Going to Epcot from CR is only one stop on the resort line. Coming back you ride the entire thing. I understand that's an average for roundtrip, but mentally it's very different when you're rope dropping to get there early vs closing Epcot down and just sitting in the dark for your stop.

GF is honestly the worst MK resort for all monorail access, but it's still my favorite.

 

[Tatebeck]

Thank you for pointing that out. Going to Epcot from CR is only one stop on the resort line. Coming back you ride the entire thing. I understand that's an average for roundtrip, but mentally it's very different when you're rope dropping to get there early vs closing Epcot down and just sitting in the dark for your stop.

GF is honestly the worst MK resort for all monorail access, but it's still my favorite.

That's definitely the way I would want it though. The shorter trip on the way to the park where you will be more likely to be in a hurry for rope drop vs the way home where it will likely be more leisurely. Also as the first stop after the magic kingdom, some room is bound to have opened up from people getting off there

 

[PolyRob]

That's definitely the way I would want it though. The shorter trip on the way to the park where you will be more likely to be in a hurry for rope drop vs the way home where it will likely be more leisurely. Also as the first stop after the magic kingdom, some room is bound to have opened up from people getting off there

Agreed! The roundtrip doesn't take that into consideration or the fact that you're already past security from the CR lobby rather than waiting with all the bus guests at the Epcot entrance.

 

[eticketplease]

What do you mean by the "most resorts to pick from" after 2042?

Wouldn't it have the same 7 month swapability as every other O14 resort?

Minus any real home resort period advantage, so at best I would say it is tied between all the remaining resorts or I would say it has the LEAST overall resorts to pick from in total due to it being the resort of last resort without much home resort period appeal.

I clearly phrased that wrong.

What I meant is that it has the most amount of choices per the life of the contract.

Say what you will about SSR but it still remains in my eyes a great SAP resort to own.

Low buy in prices
Can match every use year that someone has with more than just one listing.
Reasonable dues.
Variety of room types with a reasonable point chart.
It also has availability so that if I strike out at the 7 month window I still know that I have a great resort that I can stay at.

 

[Tatebeck]

I clearly phrased that wrong.

What I meant is that it has the most amount of choices per the life of the contract.

Say what you will about SSR but it still remains in my eyes a great SAP resort to own.

Low buy in prices
Can match every use year that someone has with more than just one listing.
Reasonable dues.
Variety of room types with a reasonable point chart.
It also has availability so that if I strike out at the 7 month window I still know that I have a great resort that I can stay at.

Oh, just because it expires before the rest? I guess that is technically true, as long as there is always 7 month availability, which is tough to assume.

If you don't actually want to stay at SSR regularly I would still argue it is worth the small price increase to get better SAP+ contracts that expire a bit later at somewhere like AKV (and get access to hard to get value/club rooms, better theming and animals, etc) or BLT (much better location if you don't have a car and on the monorail loop). The next few to expire still have plenty of options at 7 months if available and a home resort window that may actually matter

 

[CastAStone]

TouringPlans used to have a chart of (measured average) transportation times between resort and each primary destination using Disney transport and via driving, but I can't dig it up.

Maybe @lentesta knows where it is.

The touring plans redesign a couple years ago I’m sure made everything easier for new people but it sure feels like a lot of content vanished. I wonder if there’s more The Unofficial Guide exclusive stuff.

 

[maui22]

If BLT, VGF, PVB, and CCV owners aren't swapping to other locations, it means the only MK resorts BWV42 and BCV42 will have a chance at are BRV42, CFW, and LSL.

I could see a point washing option so the BCV42 and BWV42 have a realistic chance to swap into the monorail resorts.