Swine Flu - General Discussion and how it affects Disney

[yyum168]

May 2 (Bloomberg) -- The World Health Organization probably will go to phase 6, the highest step on its pandemic alert scale, even as some reports say many cases of swine flu show symptoms no more severe than seasonal flu, health officials said.

The WHO isn’t seeing sustained community transmission of the virus, known formally as influenza A H1N1, outside of North America, said Michael Ryan, the WHO’s director of global alert and response, at a news conference today in Geneva where the UN health agency is based.

Still, swine flu has reached 16 countries, most recently Costa Rica, and there’s evidence the new virus is spreading in five nations among people unconnected to Mexico where cases were first reported. The health minister in Mexico said today the country has no new deaths attributed to the H1N1 virus commonly known as swine flu.

“At this stage we have to expect that phase 6 will be reached; we have to hope that it won’t be reached,” Ryan said. “I would still propose that a pandemic is imminent.”

(the rest of the story in Bloomberg.com)
Thanks, good health and good evening!

 

[maroo]

Here is what I am wearing to the parks this summer

This is completely hilarious and my friends over here want to know if it is air conditioned!

On a not-so-funny note.....There will be a press release within the hour here in Canada concerning the new swine farm infected in Alberta, Canada. A man came back from Mexico and carried the virus back with him. He became ill with the virus. He also passed the H1N1 flu to all of his pigs.

On another note, this thread is quite funny

I saw that on the AP wire! I have to admit...I laughed. Is that mean? They said the pigs were "quarantined"... Seriously?

And if the H1N1 flu gets passed to the pigs...it is, in my opinion, certainly the swine flu!

So....we leave in 12 days....


Should I start packing?

I am thinking though, sooner or later this is going to have to hit WDW then what happens? This is my fear, would they close down park? WOuld people be getting flu like all at once?

After 117 pages you would think I would have a clear decision on this...

They won't close the parks. The strain is so weak...that unless it gets much worse (sicker people or deaths in young healthy folks) or you have someone that is particularly fragile in your family - then I would go! Even if they have Orlando cases by then.

They won't close the parks until it is a Phase 6 AND a PSI (Pandemic Severity Index) of a 4 or a 5. To give you an idea of a PSI - A PSI of 1 is the regular flu (and this one, so far) and a PSI of 2 is the Hong Kong Flu. A PSI of 5 is the same as the 1918 flu that killed tens of millions.

I think you are safe to go this month!

Somebody some pages back posted that we used to be afraid of the finger scanner. Well, actually I still am - and not because I'm afraid that Disney will have my fingerprints. I can't imagine the amount of viruses and germs that must be on those things. I have always gone straight to a restroom to wash my hands after being scanned in. I wonder if the flu could be easily spread on one of those machines.

I think Disney needs to give out sanitizer if they end up with cases in Orlando. But that is just me!

 

[WeLoveLilo05]

May 2 (Bloomberg) -- The World Health Organization probably will go to phase 6, the highest step on its pandemic alert scale, even as some reports say many cases of swine flu show symptoms no more severe than seasonal flu, health officials said.

The WHO isn’t seeing sustained community transmission of the virus, known formally as influenza A H1N1, outside of North America, said Michael Ryan, the WHO’s director of global alert and response, at a news conference today in Geneva where the UN health agency is based.

Still, swine flu has reached 16 countries, most recently Costa Rica, and there’s evidence the new virus is spreading in five nations among people unconnected to Mexico where cases were first reported. The health minister in Mexico said today the country has no new deaths attributed to the H1N1 virus commonly known as swine flu.

“At this stage we have to expect that phase 6 will be reached; we have to hope that it won’t be reached,” Ryan said. “I would still propose that a pandemic is imminent.”

(the rest of the story in Bloomberg.com)
Thanks, good health and good evening!

Wonderful! I am just so unhappy and sick of this.

 

[maroo]

Wonderful! I am just so unhappy and sick of this.

Unfortunately, I think this will be around a while...at least somewhere.

I am just SO thankful it is a weak strain. For them to declare a Phase 6 would really not be a surprise at all...just means it is spreading some in some other region...but it can still be "pandemic" level and be weak!

 

[ntsammy5]

Insanity rules.

What are we doing to prevent alien invasion? There's a finite possibility that will happen too. Pure idiocy.

 

[kaytieeldr]

Insanity rules.

What are we doing to prevent alien invasion? There's a finite possibility that will happen too. Pure idiocy.

I don't know about you, but I went out and got me some of that alumininumum foil stuff like in the picture a couple pages back, and I made me one of them protective headhat covering things.
Then I used the rest to cover my windows. House AND car.
No aliens invading here. No flu, neither - I used the last little piece to make a hat for my nose

 

[WeLoveLilo05]

Unfortunately, I think this will be around a while...at least somewhere.

I am just SO thankful it is a weak strain. For them to declare a Phase 6 would really not be a surprise at all...just means it is spreading some in some other region...but it can still be "pandemic" level and be weak!

So isn't regular flu, strep throat, etc all pandemics?

 

[praline3001]

This is completely hilarious and my friends over here want to know if it is air conditioned!

But of course ~ I mean I am going to Disney in JULY~~~~


Oh and my state now has 23 probable cases
We will just have to wait and see... it seems a city worker has it

 

[maroo]

But of course ~ I mean I am going to Disney in JULY~~~~


Oh and my state now has 23 probable cases
We will just have to wait and see... it seems a city worker has it

Great. You are just full of good news, aren't you.

 

[lrab1126]

i find it comforting in some respect to know that the symptoms of the illness are not worse or any more deadly that the common type b strain and in many cases those who have come up positive thus far in the US have had very mild symptoms and many were actually fully recovered even before the official test results came back that said they had H1N1 to begin with. It is a good reminder to everyone that good hand hygiene and respiratory etiquette are very important ALL the time...not just when there is a threat like this.

What I do expect to see with this virus is a slowdown of confirmed cases over the summer and likely a return at a greater and more serious rate in the fall/winter months. But if they stay on track with developing the vaccine, they will have one ready for distribution in 4months (so around sept or so). But for anyone who is hoping of thinking it is going to just go away soon.... it isn't, it will stick around until all the current cases are confirmed and then may slow down but I am willing to bet there will be a come back.

 

[ShannonMB]

My friend from work just got back from Vegas, flying through Houston. She has the flu now, and they've sent her specimen for testing. Ooh, so glad I haven't seen her since she got back, and she hasn't been back at work. It wouldn't be good if she brought it to our Children's Hospital!!!

 

[KimDis]

Ok! Now THIS makes no sense.

I am watching CNN and Dr. Gupta, who DAYS ago was talking to Patient zero without a mask, is now touring the CDC? Walking around the office and talking to people. They did take his temp before he went in...but I thought this had an incubation period of 7 days? And that you can pass it before you show symptoms?

That does not seem wise.

Why? Patient zero isn't sick any more. They said on air that they confirmed it with his doctors before they decided to go maskless. It's totally safe to interact with him now. It's flu and he's recovered.

I really think this panic has made us all a little hypersensitive - myself included. I almost bought trip insurance last week, and then my mom, a nurse, reminded me that we are all perfectly healthy and it's flu. It's a BAD flu for people who wait a week to get to a doc (like the folks who died in Mexico and the little Mexican boy who died in TX last week). If you had a flu and then got over it, I'd hang out withcha.

Now I appreciate the fact that our government is tracking this thing, and working to make sure hospitals have enough resources to deal with this if it becomes more serious, but I'm not gonna get swept up into worry.

But I do think y'all should avoid Disney around mid to late July just in case.

 

[maroo]

So isn't regular flu, strep throat, etc all pandemics?

I think the "pandemic" label would only be assigned to "novel" things...I think that is the difference... But I am not positive? anyone else want to weigh in on this?

i find it comforting in some respect to know that the symptoms of the illness are not worse or any more deadly that the common type b strain and in many cases those who have come up positive thus far in the US have had very mild symptoms and many were actually fully recovered even before the official test results came back that said they had H1N1 to begin with. It is a good reminder to everyone that good hand hygiene and respiratory etiquette are very important ALL the time...not just when there is a threat like this.

What I do expect to see with this virus is a slowdown of confirmed cases over the summer and likely a return at a greater and more serious rate in the fall/winter months. But if they stay on track with developing the vaccine, they will have one ready for distribution in 4months (so around sept or so). But for anyone who is hoping of thinking it is going to just go away soon.... it isn't, it will stick around until all the current cases are confirmed and then may slow down but I am willing to bet there will be a come back.

I expect exactly the same thing...it will slow down, but not go away...and this thread will be named "Swine Flu - Volume 12" by the time it comes around for the fall.

Why? Patient zero isn't sick any more. They said on air that they confirmed it with his doctors before they decided to go maskless. It's totally safe to interact with him now. It's flu and he's recovered.

This is true...but wasn't the Mom sitting there telling Dr. Gupta that she was feeling sick again...I remember thinking that I would not be standing that close to her without my mask.

I really think this panic has made us all a little hypersensitive - myself included. I almost bought trip insurance last week, and then my mom, a nurse, reminded me that we are all perfectly healthy and it's flu. It's a BAD flu for people who wait a week to get to a doc (like the folks who died in Mexico and the little Mexican boy who died in TX last week). If you had a flu and then got over it, I'd hang out withcha.

You are so sweet! I think it might actually be helpful for some of us to go ahead and get it. Does it work like the chicken pox? Or if it mutates do we have to all start over?

Now I appreciate the fact that our government is tracking this thing, and working to make sure hospitals have enough resources to deal with this if it becomes more serious, but I'm not gonna get swept up into worry.

I agree 100%! I am also glad our media is covering it, too. I am not freaked out or anything...I just find this all so interesting!

But I do think y'all should avoid Disney around mid to late July just in case.

You will see Brook there with her yellow jumpsuit! Who needs a lime green Mickey when you have THAT?!

 

[praline3001]

Great. You are just full of good news, aren't you.

Zippidy doo dah

 

[pampam]

Unfortunately, I think this will be around a while...at least somewhere.

I am just SO thankful it is a weak strain. For them to declare a Phase 6 would really not be a surprise at all...just means it is spreading some in some other region...but it can still be "pandemic" level and be weak!

I guess I don't understand "weak strain". It's the same virus for everyone. However, as has been stated before, we have better diets, sanitation, health care, water, information , and so on. As such, we are better armed to fight and resist it when in contact with it. If it spreads to countries not as fortunate as ours it could be terrible. I believe that is why Mexico has had so many deaths and we hav'nt.

 

[loveysbydesign]

I have to say that what worries me is that schools and such keep closing...isn't that just going to make the flu stick around longer and take longer to spread to everyone??? Instead of everyone getting it within the next say 5 months it might hang around longer if it's so strong!

 

[Alesia]

I guess I don't understand "weak strain". It's the same virus for everyone. However, as has been stated before, we have better diets, sanitation, health care, water, information , and so on. As such, we are better armed to fight and resist it when in contact with it. If it spreads to countries not as fortunate as ours it could be terrible. I believe that is why Mexico has had so many deaths and we hav'nt.

But Mexico hasn't had many deaths at all compared to the regular flu. There have only been 19, according to the WHO. While that's certainly higher than US deaths, it's only 18 more than the US.

Every year in the US 36,000 people die from the flu. In a six month flu season, that's 200 people per day. The US has 1 death from the swine flu. Just 1. In a month.

As of now, only 0.00000009% of the world population has it. Hardly a reason concern at this time. Your chances of getting struck by lightning are higher.

 

[alwaysready]

But Mexico hasn't had many deaths at all compared to the regular flu. There have only been 19, according to the WHO. While that's certainly higher than US deaths, it's only 18 more than the US.

Every year in the US 36,000 people die from the flu. In a six month flu season, that's 200 people per day. The US has 1 death from the swine flu. Just 1. In a month.

As of now, only 0.00000009% of the world population has it. Hardly a reason concern at this time. Your chances of getting struck by lightning are higher.

This is the best approach to this problem that I have seen. Bravo!!

 

[praline3001]

As of now, only 0.00000009% of the world population has it. Hardly a reason concern at this time. Your chances of getting struck by lightning are higher.

Nope the average amount of people struck by lightning in the USA per year is 82. Since April 18 the number of flu cases in the US is 160 and rising.

(In the United States from 1980 through 1995, a total of 1318 deaths were attributed to lightning, (average: 82 deaths per year)
http://wonder.cdc.gov/wonder/PrevGuid/m0052833/m0052833.asp

 

[praline3001]

I guess I don't understand "weak strain". It's the same virus for everyone. However, as has been stated before, we have better diets, sanitation, health care, water, information , and so on. As such, we are better armed to fight and resist it when in contact with it. If it spreads to countries not as fortunate as ours it could be terrible. I believe that is why Mexico has had so many deaths and we hav'nt.

When they say weak strain they mean weaker then they first thought. Look at the 1918 pandemic, it killed almost a 100 million people. In relation to THAT pandemic this is a weaker strain.
As of this morning 787 people have lab confirmed cases (WHO) out of that 20 cases have been lab confirmed as dying due to the flu.
That means 3% of the people who catch this flu (or have confirmed cases) have died. For the Flu that is still a higher % than the seasonal flu. Yes, the seasonal flu kills 36,000 a year in the US but how many people catch it a year? The CDC and WHO do not have a common denominator to which compare the 2.

The 1918 flu pandemic (commonly and incorrectly referred to as the Spanish flu) was an influenza pandemic that spread to nearly every part of the world. It was caused by an unusually virulent and deadly Influenza A virus strain of subtype H1N1.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1918_flu_pandemic