Swine Flu - General Discussion and how it affects Disney

[Toad_Passenger]

CNN is reporting the WHO put the number of cases at 331 worldwide. They also offered this in the article:

"We have not seen sustained human-to-human transmission anywhere outside the Americas region," said WHO spokesman Thomas Abraham.

This is important because in order for them to go to level 6 they would have to see human-to-human transmission in Europe/Asia/Africa. While this may change when we hear more about Spain, right now this is good news from the WHO.

 

[praline3001]

The OP looks good Maroo ~ hopefully people will stop yelling at us for being panicky


I am thinking the WHO is going to raise it to a level 6 today.

I know they were watching Spain closely and if they could confirm community transmission there then they would go to a level 6. Not that it means a whole lot to the US as we are the region with the level 5 ...

But it will be interesting to see what the world leaders do when the WHO raises the level.

Anyone have thoughts on this? All they needed was one other region not connected with north America to show community spread to raise the level..... they have 10 cases in spain CONFIRMED and 1 of those wasn't in Mexico.

I am not sure how many cases are pending to get results today? anyone know?

 

[praline3001]

CNN is reporting the WHO put the number of cases at 331 worldwide. They also offered this in the article:



This is important because in order for them to go to level 6 they would have to see human-to-human transmission in Europe/Asia/Africa. While this may change when we hear more about Spain, right now this is good news from the WHO.

Correct ~ but Spain does have many possible cases and those are the ones I am waiting to hear the results from.
As it spread human to human here, I see no reason why it wouldn't in Europe this early in the spread? Even if it is not replicating well... the first cases got it directly from the source.... so their strain should be as strong as ours, correct?

 

[Dippy the Goof]

Nothing wrong with that theory. In fact, I like it. However the other side of the coin is, in 1918 we didn't have flu vaccines to drive the mutation of different strains of the virus. Also, an outbreak would be more likely to be contained in a quarantined area. We didn't pile into subways like sardines everday, come in contact with hundreds if not thousands of people on a daily basis, or hop onto planes and transports our local germs all over the face of the globe. So there are benefits and drawbacks when comparing the two situations.

Yes, they did come in contact with hundreds of people on a daily basis. People back then named the flu the "crowding disease". Instead of subways, they used trolleys. Yes, we can get around the world faster now days with the invention of the plane, but people did still travel around the world in 1918.

 

[maroo]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ntbfVQvHt8 For giggles

Completely hilarious and deserves repeating here!

Ask and ye shall receive....

This one was the prototype made of flank steaks, but I switched it over to nice thick cut bone-in pork chops later.

I swear...I am going to need a new keyboard VERY SOON!

Ok, I just wanted a few things clarified. I did ask these following questions earlier but it was round the time of the thread mergers, so I think it got lost.

We are flying over to WDW from the UK in 12 days time with 11 of my family including my BIL who has Spinal Muscular Atrophy and my son who is only 16 weeks old (and my older son who is 4 and is very good at touching everything and then sucking his thumb!)

Could someone explain to me the procedure in place if you turn up at a health care provider with flu symptoms. The above quote is the closest I found going through here but it doesn't explain at what point you get the Tamiflu.

I wish I could answer this with certainty...I don't think there is a hard and fast procedure. If you get flu symptoms, you would let the person know at the window when you check in and they should isolate you until you can be seen.

That is the crucial thing actually, do you have to wait till you get a confirmation from test results before you get the Tamiflu? If anyone of us gets any symptoms we want to make absolutely sure that we get the symptoms as minimal as possible to aid in the spread to my BIL and my baby.

They will prescribe Tamiflu if you actually present with symptoms...at least they SHOULD!

Currently here in the UK, whoever has been in contact with a confirmed case has been given Tamiflu automatically regardless of any symptoms or not, including a whole school year. Would this happen in WDW?

If you have been in close contact and they assume you have been exposed, then during a regular flu season they would and I believe they are now, as well. They would not, however, give it to a whole school. Just maybe the close friends of the person who has it.

If one of us went down with flu symptoms, would all of us get Tamiflu? It does have a prentative role you see.

One other thing, we are staying off site in our own villa. We don't have any knowledge of the US health system, so if need be, where do we go? Who do we ring? Will we have any difficulty not being a US national. I know someone did say they are used to internationals, but I was worried that would be in Disney and we are not staying in Disney.

Celebration Hospital is where we went when someone got sick on our last big trip. They took great care of us! That is also, reportedly, where the person went that experienced symptoms that they are still testing for... There are also doctors offices. First Aid at any park can help you figure out how to get there.

Please no one flame me, yes, I admit it I am terrified by all of this. I wouldn't be if I wasn't flying for 9 hours and taking my 16 week old baby to a "cess pool of germs" as someone previously mentioned, in a nation that has a health service totaly alien to me.

You won't get flamed by most of us! You have immunocompromised people traveling with you and I would be concerned, too.

One other thing, I am no more worried about the swine flu then I am normal flu. However, I am worrying about my baby catching it regardless of the type of flu it is. Yes, normal seasonal flu kills thousands every year, but we all know a baby my age would be in that statistic

Fair enough!! Sorry it took so long to get answers to your post...this thread is moving pretty fast!

What we really need during this pandemic crisis of Irwin Allen proportions is a voice of reason...............




Where is Tom Cruise?!!!!

You are so cracking me up!

 

[praline3001]

Yesterday the WHO was reporting 10 confirmed cases in Spain and this morning their report is saying 13 cases.

Are my numbers off? Did they say 13 yesterday and I missed it? I know it said 10 at one point ...but not sure when it jumped to 13 ~ and are those 13 cases community caught cases?

 

[Toad_Passenger]

Correct ~ but Spain does have many possible cases and those are the ones I am waiting to hear the results from.
As it spread human to human here, I see no reason why it wouldn't in Europe this early in the spread? Even if it is not replicating well... the first cases got it directly from the source.... so their strain should be as strong as ours, correct?

I would imagine so, that's why I'm watching Spain, also. The UK has a lot of tests underway also. I'm with you in that I think this will be Level 6, which of course will whip the media up again, even though it means nothing to us.

I really think next week will be crucial in determining where this is going. Of course we'll see higher numbers, but really it's the "new and currently ill" numbers that matter, not the "tested and recovered" numbers that were currently seeing.

Whether it's the government leading this, or individuals on a personal level, I really think we are doing a good job here in the USA of mitigating this situation.

 

[arjones31]

for those whose schools have been canceled what will you do now? Rebook ?
That would be awful, we get out on Thursday & we leave Sat. morning on the first flight out.

Our schools have not been officially canceled yet, we have just heard down the line that it is coming. I hope we will rebook, but our summer is already packed. My husband and I both teach, and he coaches, so he has football training during July. I start another degree program in June (which is online, but still a lot of work). SO confused now.

 

[Dippy the Goof]

The OP looks good Maroo ~ hopefully people will stop yelling at us for being panicky


I am thinking the WHO is going to raise it to a level 6 today.

I know they were watching Spain closely and if they could confirm community transmission there then they would go to a level 6. Not that it means a whole lot to the US as we are the region with the level 5 ...

But it will be interesting to see what the world leaders do when the WHO raises the level.

Anyone have thoughts on this? All they needed was one other region not connected with north America to show community spread to raise the level..... they have 10 cases in spain CONFIRMED and 1 of those wasn't in Mexico.

I am not sure how many cases are pending to get results today? anyone know?

I just read that the WHO has no reason to raise to Phase 6 right now. I was reading this from their site last night.

 

[praline3001]

OK found my answer ~

At the big level 5 announcement the WHO said they were going to watch Spain closely and we would go to a level 6 if they showed human to human spread...

Well on that day their report of Spain had 4 confirmed cases.

Yesterday at 4pm the WHO posted that Spain had 13 confirmed cases. This is why I think they are going to raise it to a 6 sometime today.

 

[praline3001]

I just read that the WHO has no reason to raise to Phase 6 right now. I was reading this from their site last night.

You have to watch the dates closely to what your reading on the WHO site. They saw no reason on the 29th to go to a level 6... but things are moving quickly and now that more test results come back we should see a 6 today or tomorrow.


REMEMBER level 6 has NOTHING to do with us. A level 6 means that the medical community has shown human to human contact in an entirely different region... like Europe. As soon as they show human to human contact in Europe we will be at a 6.

 

[maroo]

I personally think the WHO will probably try NOT to raise it until there is strong human to human transmission...probably over several generations of people. Just an opinion. I think they need that extra "level" to go up if this indeed continues to spread.

And yes, the media would get cranked up again!

 

[praline3001]

I personally think the WHO will probably try NOT to raise it until there is strong human to human transmission...probably over several generations of people. Just an opinion. I think they need that extra "level" to go up if this indeed continues to spread.

And yes, the media would get cranked up again!

I would pay good money to see old Wolf B. in a gas mask spouting off "Now is not the time to panic"

 

[praline3001]

I personally think the WHO will probably try NOT to raise it until there is strong human to human transmission...probably over several generations of people. Just an opinion. I think they need that extra "level" to go up if this indeed continues to spread.

And yes, the media would get cranked up again!

I think just the opposite is happening. I think the leaders of WHO are sitting in giddy excitement ready to push that level 6 button. They said themselves they have gotten over 8 million hits to their website a day now. They are getting their 15 minutes of fame and are able to educate us on other health issues and the whole world is watching and listening to their every word. Thats powerful stuff right there

 

[Dippy the Goof]

You have to watch the dates closely to what your reading on the WHO site. They saw no reason on the 29th to go to a level 6... but things are moving quickly and now that more test results come back we should see a 6 today or tomorrow.


REMEMBER level 6 has NOTHING to do with us. A level 6 means that the medical community has shown human to human contact in an entirely different region... like Europe. As soon as they show human to human contact in Europe we will be at a 6.

According to the news story in Tampa, it could have something to do with us. It said that if there is a Phase 6 and a confirmed case near the parks, they could close all theme parks. I hope not, I've been planning for years to go to Disney World and if they close the parks, that would delay our trip another year. My kids would be heart broken.

 

[brandi~momof3]

how long would the parks close though? a week, a month? longer??????

 

[praline3001]

According to the news story in Tampa, it could have something to do with us. It said that if there is a Phase 6 and a confirmed case near the parks, they could close all theme parks. I hope not, I've been planning for years to go to Disney World and if they close the parks, that would delay our trip another year. My kids would be heart broken.

That is a huge part of my problem with the locals reporting this... they are very wrong and are either going to CAUSE a panic or give off a false sense of security.

HERE IS the levels described strait from the WHO website:

iruses might theoretically develop into pandemic viruses, in Phase 1 no viruses circulating among animals have been reported to cause infections in humans.

In Phase 2 an animal influenza virus circulating among domesticated or wild animals is known to have caused infection in humans, and is therefore considered a potential pandemic threat.

In Phase 3, an animal or human-animal influenza reassortant virus has caused sporadic cases or small clusters of disease in people, but has not resulted in human-to-human transmission sufficient to sustain community-level outbreaks. Limited human-to-human transmission may occur under some circumstances, for example, when there is close contact between an infected person and an unprotected caregiver. However, limited transmission under such restricted circumstances does not indicate that the virus has gained the level of transmissibility among humans necessary to cause a pandemic.

Phase 4 is characterized by verified human-to-human transmission of an animal or human-animal influenza reassortant virus able to cause “community-level outbreaks.” The ability to cause sustained disease outbreaks in a community marks a significant upwards shift in the risk for a pandemic. Any country that suspects or has verified such an event should urgently consult with WHO so that the situation can be jointly assessed and a decision made by the affected country if implementation of a rapid pandemic containment operation is warranted. Phase 4 indicates a significant increase in risk of a pandemic but does not necessarily mean that a pandemic is a forgone conclusion.

Phase 5 is characterized by human-to-human spread of the virus into at least two countries in one WHO region. While most countries will not be affected at this stage, the declaration of Phase 5 is a strong signal that a pandemic is imminent and that the time to finalize the organization, communication, and implementation of the planned mitigation measures is short.

Phase 6, the pandemic phase, is characterized by community level outbreaks in at least one other country in a different WHO region in addition to the criteria defined in Phase 5. Designation of this phase will indicate that a global pandemic is under way.

During the post-peak period, pandemic disease levels in most countries with adequate surveillance will have dropped below peak observed levels. The post-peak period signifies that pandemic activity appears to be decreasing; however, it is uncertain if additional waves will occur and countries will need to be prepared for a second wave.

Previous pandemics have been characterized by waves of activity spread over months. Once the level of disease activity drops, a critical communications task will be to balance this information with the possibility of another wave. Pandemic waves can be separated by months and an immediate “at-ease” signal may be premature.

In the post-pandemic period, influenza disease activity will have returned to levels normally seen for seasonal influenza. It is expected that the pandemic virus will behave as a seasonal influenza A virus. At this stage, it is important to maintain surveillance and update pandemic preparedness and response plans accordingly. An intensive phase of recovery and evaluation may be required.

 

[Toad_Passenger]

how long would the parks close though? a week, a month? longer??????

Based on incubation periods and what Mexico has done I would say 7-10 days would be the advice. However, if the closure is only to disinfect, I would imagine WDW could do it very quickly.

I wouldn't be surprised, though, that the night shift isn't already doing heavy disinfecting while the guest are asleep.

That being said I think this is a foolish announcement. Moving to a Level 6 is no worse in the USA than a Level 5, because we already have the virus here. This "plan" sounds like it was made by someone who doesn't fully grasp the WHO levels.

 

[brandi~momof3]

I wouldn't be surprised, though, that the night shift isn't already doing heavy disinfecting while the guest are asleep.

I would think that too. They do a lot of things at night that the public does not realize (painting, cleaning, etc.). Hopefully that is the case. I would think they are being vigilant with cleaning, disenfecting, etc.

 

[Dippy the Goof]

I guess we'll have to wait. I believe that I have as much chance of getting here as I do at the parks. Where I work, I come in contact with Mexicans that do travel back and forth to Mexico so the risk is there. Plus, I believe that there is a confirmed case in my state now. It is in Indiana, Ohio, and now my state of Kentucky. At the level that it has already spread, I can't see closing the parks helping much.