SSR-Why is it so cheap in resale?

[Dean]

So while SSR is cheapest in cost v. AKV when projecting current MFs @ uniform increases going forward plus buy in cost - that could be very different in 5 years if SSR sees a run of high % increases to MFs and AKV does not.

True but that goes both ways. From a demand standpoint numbers alone doesn't increase demand for all resorts, only resorts that are more desirable than the average. And likewise new resorts only help demand if they are higher in demand than the average. But by nature owners at high demand resort owners, esp new resorts, are more likely to stay there and less likely to exchange out at 7 months or if they do, it'll be by wait list to other high demand resorts which is a wash. PUt another way, it'd likely take 10K VGF points to make as much difference as SSR has in the system related to the 7 month window. Owners at higher demand resorts are also more likely to rent than use at lower demand resorts than the reverse.

From a dues standpoint we can predict somewhat. Inflation is likely to be fairly uniform across the system so I feel comfortable looking at them increasing proportionally. If we look at the resorts and judge the likely challenges or lack of for upkeep, SSR & BLT are likely the best situated. AKV and OKW likely the worst. New resorts often increase faster for a while to catch up which has happened at BLT. IF there's a natural disaster insurance will kick in either to rebuild the resort or the resort will be closed and members terminated hopefully getting some insurance proceeds. AKV has some unique challenges so I think owners there (myself included) can count themselves lucky if the increase is consistent with SSR over time.

 

[docsoliday1]

Lol. Not sad at all

We picked bwv and, after a few years of bwv we added on BLT, not bc we needed to stagger home but bc we have little kids who sleep poorly. The proximity is so nice when running back for naps or bedtime.

We stayed at akv once. It was a gorgeous room (2bd/3bth for two adults and a toddler-- we splurged, obviously). We still hated it bc we had to rely on the bus system. Maybe when kids are older and no longer nap, we can try out akv again and enjoy it, but right now? No.

We wouldn't go to SSR and Okw for the same reasons....

I think everyone has different priorities

Yeah, I can understand that...my kids are older and it's me that needs the nap.

So, if you're planning on going to MK, you book BLT and BWV for EPCOT? What about if you go to AK or HS? OKW and SSR are pretty close (especially OKW) to EPCOT and at times, I almost wonder if it would be faster to walk there. I was debating about trying something different the next time we go and see how it works out. We normally drive to central FL since we have family about 45 min from WDW. I'm debating about driving to areas around Disney vs. depending on buses since they can be sooooo slow. I'm not sure if it was on this forum or another, but someone mentioned the waiting in line for a bus after the park closes is terribly slow and typically overcrowded buses and I agree. Driving would be faster than waiting for transportation, but I kinda enjoy not needing my keys or license and just sitting back on the bus/boat/monorail and relaxing. Also, if we go to the MK, we can't totally avoid transportation anyway since there's the tram and then the monorail/boat to actually get to the park. I remember back in '71 when the monorail was such a unique and ingenious concept to us. Now it's kinda meh!

You're dead on about different priorities and I guess one of the reasons I do like SSR is we alternate park days with relax days. I found when we tried to do a park every day, we were exhausted and cranky (all of us). On the non-park days, we stay at the resort and swim or take a boat to downtown disney and just take it easy. I'm a bit sad they're doing away with DisneyQuest since I really like the older video games. I'm not at all interested in the NBA experience, but maybe for others, it will be good.

 

[docsoliday1]

WDW and DVC are evolving - the snapshot we see now will not be what we experience 5 or 10 years from now.

Demand/availability at 7 months has changed and is changing as more points are sold at new resorts. Currently SSR/OKW seem to usually be available along with Kidani at AKV. Will that be true after Copper Canyon is sold and they open the rumored new big DVC at say CBR? Certainly the bigger DVCs will always be easier to get at 7 months than the small DVCs like BC & VGF, but I don't think we can predict demand going forward. Plus renting points has become a big business, I suspect fewer points are being 'wasted' than in the past because of this. Certainly I think high demand times are getting harder to book.

Likewise MFs change through time. It would be nice if they changed in a linear, predictable way - like tracking inflation or the COLA, but they don't. Some examples:
In 2002 when BC opened the MFs were $3.77 and OKW was $3.22, a $.55 difference. Assuming uniform inflation of MFs the difference should be even greater now, yet for 2016 BC is at $6.13 and OKW is $6.01, only a $.12 difference.
In 2009 when BLT opened MFs were 3.67 and SSR MFs were 4.34 a .67 difference. For 2016 BLT is 5.28 and SSR is 5.44, so down to a .16 difference.
In 2013 when VGF opened MFs were 5.41 and SSR MFs were 4.50 a .91 difference (similar spread to the .98 difference between AKV and SSR this year.) Yet 2016 VGF MFs are 5.71 and SSR MFs are 5.44 so down to a .27 difference.
AKV's MFs have been the highest of the WDW DVCs for the last 2 years, yet in 2007 when it opened until 2012 AKV's MFs were lower than BCV, VWL and BWV. In 2013 they were lower than BWV and VWL. In 2014 they were lower than BWV.
This year AKV had a very small % increase and SSR had over a 5% increase. Will AKV's dues always be higher than SSR's - perhaps, after all at AKV $.35 goes to animal programs and the resort has a lot of international CMs interpreting aspects of their countries. Will they always be $.98 higher than SSR? In 2015 AKV was $1.13 higher, 2014 $1.06, 2013 $1.16, 2012 $.71, 2011 $.50, 2010 $.49, 2009 $.52, 2008 $.50, 2007 $.50.
When I bought AKV I knew the MFs were higher than SSR and assumed they would remain so, my suspicion w/ SSR is that ultimately they will track pretty closely to OKW - currently $.57 more than SSR and $.41 less than AKV. Likewise in looking at my next intended purchase, VGF, MFs are fairly low (third lowest) but my guess is they will ultimately settle near BC (6th lowest and currently $.42 more than VGF.)

So while SSR is cheapest in cost v. AKV when projecting current MFs @ uniform increases going forward plus buy in cost - that could be very different in 5 years if SSR sees a run of high % increases to MFs and AKV does not.

You're right...it is hard to predict. Unfortunately (or fortunately if you own stock), everything Disney does is designed to pull in more revenues. The MFs go up, the price per point goes up, the number of points to reserve goes up. We've never stayed at AKV, that's why I'm waiting to pull the trigger on buying points (either a small amount direct or a larger amount resale). If we fall in love with AKV, then I'll either buy a small amount at AKV and BLT or just a larger amount at AKV. I'm enjoying the discussions here because it's helping me to consider factors I hadn't already and the actual numbers are FANTASTIC sndral!!! All this is helping me to make a better educated decision when the time comes.

 

[RaymOOOnd]

I bought at AKL because of the "buy where you want to stay". While the dues are lower at SSR and you can pretty easily get into AKL, that is only true now. What Disney does in the future may change that dynamic. They can make Animal Kingdom a much more desirable park (like they are trying to do by adding nights and a new land with more attractions), they could reduce the booking window to other resorts (I believe I read that they could reduce it to 2 months, rather than the 7 it currrently is), they could improve transportation (though unlikely, they could create a new monorail loop that ties Animal Kingdom Lodge / Animal Kingdom / EPCOT / Another large DVC resort that would have EPCOT and Animal Kingdom access), create another popular festival at Animal Kingdom similar to how they created Food and Wine, etc.. I don't know what Disney will do next, but they are always changing things in an attempt to pull in more people. I don't mind paying the extra dues knowing that even with whatever changes will happen, I will be able to have an advantage in booking at my favorite resort. Again, I like something about all the resorts I have stayed at (so I am not knocking SSR), but if you love AKL and you are buying SSR because AKL is easy to get into, I think that is a mistake.

I agree completely with this. And these are only the improvements we know are happening. What if they were to build some alternate route from the resort to the park? Walking path or a train / steam safari type thing? The value would go haywire.

 

[skier_pete]

I agree completely with this. And these are only the improvements we know are happening. What if they were to build some alternate route from the resort to the park? Walking path or a train / steam safari type thing? The value would go haywire.

Even the Avatar-land could in theory throw off the values - if the ride is the best theme-park ride in the 4 parks - it may increase demand to stay near AK. I doubt it, but it's possible.

 

[docsoliday1]

I always looked at the opposite - i can always be "bumped down" to SSR on a shorter notice trip with my AKV points - because SSR is truly ALWAYS available. The difference now is the standard/preferred category at SSR. If the standard category rooms "sell out" before the 7-month mark frequently, then it becomes a LOT more sensible to own at SSR so that you can book the standard rooms prior to the 7-month window, and then try and get in elsewhere at 7 months as a back-up.

I have poked around a bit and I can find where the points charts lists different rates for standard/preferred, but I cannot find anything that defines what the difference is. For me, I guess, I personally prefer to get closer to the main building/pool/spa, but I don't know if that's what they're using as the differentiation.

 

[CMNJ]

I have poked around a bit and I can find where the points charts lists different rates for standard/preferred, but I cannot find anything that defines what the difference is. For me, I guess, I personally prefer to get closer to the main building/pool/spa, but I don't know if that's what they're using as the differentiation.

Supposedly congress park and the springs areas are preferred due to their popularity (requests from guests to be placed in those areas).
Paddock, grandstand, and Carousel areas are standard

 

[DizBub]

Supposedly congress park and the springs areas are preferred due to their popularity (requests from guests to be placed in those areas).
Paddock, grandstand, and Carousel areas are standard

This is correct. If you want to be close to the spa, restaurants and the main pool you would request The Springs and starting in 2017 that will cost more points. Congress Park gets you closest to DS = more points.

Funny thing is that it seems like an equal number of people prefer and request Grandstand and Paddock areas. The new point structure will make those people very happy.

 

[theyoungs07]

I bought at AKL because of the "buy where you want to stay". While the dues are lower at SSR and you can pretty easily get into AKL, that is only true now. What Disney does in the future may change that dynamic. They can make Animal Kingdom a much more desirable park (like they are trying to do by adding nights and a new land with more attractions), they could reduce the booking window to other resorts (I believe I read that they could reduce it to 2 months, rather than the 7 it currrently is), they could improve transportation (though unlikely, they could create a new monorail loop that ties Animal Kingdom Lodge / Animal Kingdom / EPCOT / Another large DVC resort that would have EPCOT and Animal Kingdom access), create another popular festival at Animal Kingdom similar to how they created Food and Wine, etc.. I don't know what Disney will do next, but they are always changing things in an attempt to pull in more people. I don't mind paying the extra dues knowing that even with whatever changes will happen, I will be able to have an advantage in booking at my favorite resort. Again, I like something about all the resorts I have stayed at (so I am not knocking SSR), but if you love AKL and you are buying SSR because AKL is easy to get into, I think that is a mistake.

Does proximity to AK really come into play from AKV? Is there a way to get there other than the bus? Is it a super short bus ride? I just don't see how this is similar to those that are close to MK or Epcot where you can walk/take the monorail to get to them easily and quickly...unless there's a walking path that I'm not aware of. I'm in the market and looking at SSR and AKV.

 

[CMNJ]

Does proximity to AK really come into play from AKV? Is there a way to get there other than the bus? Is it a super short bus ride? I just don't see how this is similar to those that are close to MK or Epcot where you can walk/take the monorail to get to them easily and quickly...unless there's a walking path that I'm not aware of. I'm in the market and looking at SSR and AKV.

I don't think there is any way other than bus but my understanding from what I have read is that the bus ride is really short (like 5 min)

 

[supersnoop]

I don't think there is any way other than bus but my understanding from what I have read is that the bus ride is really short (like 5 min)

And the bus only serves the one resort.

 

[skier_pete]

Does proximity to AK really come into play from AKV? Is there a way to get there other than the bus? Is it a super short bus ride? I just don't see how this is similar to those that are close to MK or Epcot where you can walk/take the monorail to get to them easily and quickly...unless there's a walking path that I'm not aware of. I'm in the market and looking at SSR and AKV.

You can't walk to Animal Kingdom - well I guess maybe you could but I don't think there is a path or sidewalks. The bus ride is really, really short - Less than 5 minutes. And as such typically really short bus waits since the bus just rotates through the two locations (and Blizzard Beach - but soon that will be gone as they are changing that bus route to be FROM animal kingdom, so the bus will just run back and forth). And I actually never understood why they didn't put a path in - because it's actually really, really close. (The time we stayed there we could here the opening show from our room.)

 

[skier_pete]

Oh a couple other things about the bus service from DAK. It's actually not bad to DHS and Epcot at all - maybe 15 minutes at most. The "bad" bus ride is of course MK - and I would say that it is probably one of the longer rides around site though still probably about 20-25 minutes but when you add a wait for the bus it can get pretty long- that's the great negative, especially if you want to come back end of day.

 

[POTCfan]

Does proximity to AK really come into play from AKV? Is there a way to get there other than the bus? Is it a super short bus ride? I just don't see how this is similar to those that are close to MK or Epcot where you can walk/take the monorail to get to them easily and quickly...unless there's a walking path that I'm not aware of. I'm in the market and looking at SSR and AKV.

Currently you have to take a bus or drive a car. Both options are significantly faster trip to Animal Kingdom than any other method from any other current DVC resort. I would probably say that the bus ride is on par with the monorail ride from the Polynesian to the Magic Kingdom. Right now I don't think the demand for people wanting to go to Animal Kingdom is enough to change the demand for Animal Kingdom Lodge, but who knows in the future. All parks are constantly evolving.

And while I don't think Disney would create a monorail loop specifically for Animal Kingdom, I could see a scenario where they build a monorail loop for future Disney resorts which might include Animal Kingdom Lodge. I'll try to add a photo of what I could envision...



If they could add one or two large themed resorts that has monorail access to potentially 3 parks and 1 waterpark, that would be a huge factor that would make those resorts extremely desirable. And in the process, it would make the existing Epcot Resorts and Animal Kingdom more desirable. And it would alleviate some of the bus transporation issues for a lot of resorts. Though it would probably have to be a next generation of the monorail, as I think the old monorails are outdated and not seen by Disney as an economical, reliable transporation system.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

Keeping in mind the per-mile cost of a monorail at this point, I don't think they build any monorail ever again.

The Las Vegas monorail cost $88 million per mile. Several more recent projects were in the $20 million/kilometer range (~$32 million/mile).

Due to the wetlands/swamp/etc., I would expect new monorail within WDW to be on the high end of build cost.

 

[skier_pete]

Yeah - the likelihood of this monorail concept is zero. Just is never going to happen.

 

[POTCfan]

Keeping in mind the per-mile cost of a monorail at this point, I don't think they build any monorail ever again.

The Las Vegas monorail cost $88 million per mile. Several more recent projects were in the $20 million/kilometer range (~$32 million/mile).

Due to the wetlands/swamp/etc., I would expect new monorail within WDW to be on the high end of build cost.

I agree that they wouldn't build the current version of the monorail. But if there was a newer, more reliable system that they could put in it's place, I don't see this as unfeasible. If you look at Animal Kingdom Lodge alone, it has 1307 rooms. There would be an increased demand in the rooms, thus they could charge a higher price. I don't know what that price would be (would Animal Kingdom Lodge with monorail access to 3 parks get as much as Polynesian does now, would it get more, I don't know). Let's say they can get $25 more per room per night (much less than the difference between Animal Kingdom Lodge and the Polynesian) and there is only an 80% occupancy rate. $25 x 0.8 x 1307 x 365 = $9.5 million per year in extra revenue from that one resort alone. I really have no idea what the numbers actually are, but I think everyone can agree that there will be added value to staying at Animal Kingdom Lodge (and a significantly increased demand for AKV). And this would carry over to all of the Epcot resorts, and any new resorts that were built on that new monorail line.