I am really torn. What concerns me about moderates goes back to having a 5 year old. Moderates seem to be more spread out with less kids theming and longer transportation times (Thus adding time to mid-day breaks) I expect to by far spend the most time at MK compared to any other park. That being said, I have not been in a long time and was curious to hear from more experienced people. It very well could be my concerns are not valid and it is not worth the hassle.
I can give you my experience having stayed at all 3 price levels, and with children younger than yours (3 visits with a child under 3). Our first visit with a toddler we stayed at the Poly. It was great, loved being on the monorail and the grounds were nice. We got a GREAT deal, so paid less than most would have at that time. However, lets be honest, the price you pay for these rooms are not on par for the quality. Not as soundproof it didn't seem as the lower cost resort. They are still pretty spread out from the transportation and you were still walking outside to get to the lobby or whereever. We had to switch rooms due to a problem part-way through our trip due to issues with the room. Room quality was worse than some hotel I can get for $120 here in Minnesota. On a later visit, we decided to Pop Century. It was literally a realization of if we go Pop we can go now, if we stick with deluxe again, it's not going to happen. I was really worried going into it, but honestly, we LOVED Pop. The rooms were plenty big even with the stroller and things. Yes, we were taking buses and the monorail for the Magic Kingdom was nice, but if you aren't on the monorail, the wait for the buses at the Poly were painful. THey took FOREVER compared to the buses at Pop, whether we were going to another park, or downtown disney. The walk to our (non-preferred) room at Pop was pretty short, and we liked the large food court at the resort better than the quick dining options especially with kids. Our older one would swim while the youngest was taking a nap and I didn't notice her liking the value pools any less than she liked the deluxe. She didn't notice a water slide or anything missing. If we were talking about a $100 a night difference between rooms, yeah, staying at the Poly might be nice, but I just can't justifty the cost anymore. I just priced out a value season rate between Poly and Pop, and it was a difference of $376 A NIGHT!!! To me, that's crazy. The Poly is not THAT much better. If people can afford it, more power to them, but for us there is a lot of nice dinners, princess dresses, even staying a couple extra nights that you could buy for that money. Well, actually for us, it's more that the price difference between the Poly and Pop for 6 nights is $2256, which is enough for my Hubby and I to go to a 5 star resort in Mexico for 5 nights- All Inclusive. I'd just rather travel more often, I guess.
I think you will be happy with whatever you choose, just don't feel you have to be at the deluxe to have a good vacation.