Signs of resistance

[squirk]

On any given week, you can find multiple new threads started claiming that DCL is too expensive and/or has pulled back on so much value that the OP is "out", moving on to cheaper cruise lines. And someone chimes in and says that the aggressive pricing will catch up to DCL some day.

The Canadian, FL Resident and Military discounts seem to be used ad hoc to just "round off" a sailing with a smattering of empty cabins. Otherwise, it seems that DCL rarely (if ever) just flat-out lowers prices across the board.

So what would be tell-tale signs that DCL has hit a true resistance point in their pricing? The first one that comes to my mind is "Kids Sail Free", but I am sure you more seasoned DCL cruisers have seen other tactics, especially back in 2008-2009.

OBC to cover gratuities? Drink credits? I'm talking signs of real trouble, not just incentives to fill a few odd cabins here and there.

 

[FigmentSpark]

Cancelled cruises, due to lack of sales.

 

[squirk]

Cancelled cruises, due to lack of sales.

I wonder if they would ever disclose that reason for a cancelled sailing, or spin it (lie) as "maintenance".

And I wonder what the threshold is in terms of capacity for them to cancel a cruise. <75%?

 

[Flossbolna]

I wonder if they would ever disclose that reason for a cancelled sailing, or spin it (lie) as "maintenance".

And I wonder what the threshold is in terms of capacity for them to cancel a cruise. <75%?

They did it when they pulled the Wonder from the West Coast. I think it was winter 2012/2013?? The Wonder was supposed to stay all winter on the West Coast. And then they decided to bring the ship back to the East Coast and had a PC cruise in December. I remember that there were some incredibly great rates available for that transitioning cruise. And quite a few people here on the DIS were very upset when their Christmas cruises in California were cancelled.

 

[Flossbolna]

They were still doing kids sail free discounts in 2013. My first cruise was a kids sail free cruise and I was very concerned how many kids would be on that ship. But it turned out ok.

I am not sure what would be the tell tale signs for DCL having reached the price limit. I do think they saw it a little in the summers in Europe and it will be interesting what is going to happen with the 2017 cruises. I think DCL also keeps a very close eye on how they can avoid anyone noticing their difficulties to fill certain cruises. There were a number of cruises that had all kind of discounts for special groups (CMs, travel agents), but not the general public. For example my 2015 Norway cruise (inaugural Norway cruise) was filled half with CMs it felt like. I remember someone else mentioning something similar about a Hawaii cruise. As a normal person, you were never able to find any kind of discount on those itineraries. Also, this summer there were some quite good *GT rates on the Iceland cruise (which seems to be the most expensive European itinerary they offer).

 

[meuseman]

Based on what happened at the parks this summer, I think the resistance point happens quickly. DCL should be able to see resistance 18ish months out as they release their schedule. If they are booking their targets within the first week or 2 of schedule release (not selling out, but seeing the right number of room sales based on their projections) they can decide to continue to raise prices. If they don't hit that number, they can discount (or just dynamically price downward) and they they hit their resistance.

 

[JW9DVC]

Based on what happened at the parks this summer, I think the resistance point happens quickly. DCL should be able to see resistance 18ish months out as they release their schedule. If they are booking their targets within the first week or 2 of schedule release (not selling out, but seeing the right number of room sales based on their projections) they can decide to continue to raise prices. If they don't hit that number, they can discount (or just dynamically price downward) and they they hit their resistance.

What has happened at work parks? The two parks here in CA have raised prices. Yet. It is very crowded all the time. Even with half of the stuff shut down for the build out of Star Wars Land.

 

[disneyholic family]

What has happened at work parks? The two parks here in CA have raised prices. Yet. It is very crowded all the time. Even with half of the stuff shut down for the build out of Star Wars Land.

attendance at WDW dropped this year, but that doesn't mean it's because of prices...
the lack of attractions at DHS is a better explanation..
DHS is a half day park now....if that...
if a park used to need two days to cover everything and now only needs one, that can result in a drop in attendance...
and if you have two parks in that condition (epcot closing innoventions etc), it only makes matters worse..

 

[tvguy]

Disney's business model is very simple. Maximize profits per passenger. So far the Disney name, ships and service are strong enough to support their fare schedule. Better to have 2 cabins empty that would generate $100 profit each, and one cabin sold that generates $300 profit.
There is a lot of talk that the price hikes at Disneyland are more designed to turn away people to make it a less crowded experience for those willing to pay top dollar to be there.

 

[BruinEd03]

Disney's business model is very simple. Maximize profits per passenger. So far the Disney name, ships and service are strong enough to support their fare schedule. Better to have 2 cabins empty that would generate $100 profit each, and one cabin sold that generates $300 profit.
There is a lot of talk that the price hikes at Disneyland are more designed to turn away people to make it a less crowded experience for those willing to pay top dollar to be there.

Yes, but Disneyland started offering Annual passes for California Adventures. Furthermore, they also started offering Southern California Annual Passes again, too.

 

[squirk]

Disney's business model is very simple. Maximize profits per passenger. So far the Disney name, ships and service are strong enough to support their fare schedule. Better to have 2 cabins empty that would generate $100 profit each, and one cabin sold that generates $300 profit.
There is a lot of talk that the price hikes at Disneyland are more designed to turn away people to make it a less crowded experience for those willing to pay top dollar to be there.

Yes, crowd control is a huge part of it at the parks. Raise prices so that 20% fewer people will attend, but your profit margin improves because you're getting the same total ticket revenue while lowering your staff and operations expenses (since there are less people coming).