(When) will DVC go “negative”?

[Girlstar30]

And no washer dryer in your 1 bed. And no towels at the pool. It just doesn’t feel deluxe.

Ima keep my mouth shut about the casitas

 

[muppets3d]

And no washer dryer in your 1 bed. And no towels at the pool. It just doesn’t feel deluxe.

And the drawer next to the stove hits the stove's handle when you open it.

 

[Girlstar30]

Your posts prompted me to run a few comparisons.

7/19-7/26 at RIV:
Deluxe Studio, Resort View, Cash Rate with 40% AP Discount - $3,422; Dues cost - $1,181; Savings of $2,241
1 BR, Preferred View (Resort view unavailable), Cash Rate with 40% AP Discount - $5,698; Dues cost - $3,364; Savings of $2,334

7/19-7/26 at CCV:
Deluxe Studio, Cash Rate with 30% Discount - $2,889; Dues cost - $1,091; Savings of $1,798
1 BR, Cash Rate with 30% Discount - $4,774; Dues cost - $2,219; Savings of $2,555

Of course, playing with the dates just a bit, very clear that owning would provide much more flexibility with respect to which dates are available. Plenty of dates just don't show any availability for the heavily discounted rates. And, it does seem like these heavy discounts are primarily targeted at the summer timeframe which, well, I'm not opposed to a summer trip to WDW, but it is a bit like living on the surface of the sun for a few days . TBH, I think some of this really argues in favor of points chart adjustments. Summer should be less points. December should be more, especially early December. That would probably go a long ways to addressing some of the issues with spec renting too.

Dont tell dvc that, I dont want to go during the summer

 

[muppets3d]

Dont tell dvc that, I dont want to go during the summer

These promos have been fairly evergreen lately, not quite 40% but still nobody is paying rack rate at WDW anymore.

 

[Girlstar30]

These promos have been fairly evergreen lately, not quite 40% but still nobody is paying rack rate at WDW anymore.

I wouldnt pay rack rate either, studio costs are ridiculous. I would not pay $900 to stay at any

 

[Cfabar1]

If they get their act together after its cash only im going to be very irritated...

I think January would be. great time to shut down HHI...

VB on the other hand, I could imagine them saying "let's get the cash rates through season and shut down in the summer". They could keep the main building open, and maybe a couple of villas.

 

[Girlstar30]

I think January would be. great time to shut down HHI...

VB on the other hand, I could imagine them saying "let's get the cash rates through season and shut down in the summer". They could keep the main building open, and maybe a couple of villas.

I want to stay in the cottages before that happens

 

[BrianLo]

I’ve said it before but I think LSL is going to come in between RIV and PIT. But, I don’t think it’s on account of point inflation. I think Disney will find a way to sell it whether that be the lazy river, the large size of the resort/rooms, possible increased options with CFW, and simply being a completely brand new MK resort (not just an addition or conversion).

The trouble is the CFW provides an anchor. Those units are priced in between RIV and Poly. If they join together as is predicted that is (though I have my doubts).

 

[BrianLo]

The first resort to hit zero will be VB, but I have my doubts if anything else will outside of year 46+ when closing fees and transfer fees erode value. If they find a way to solve CFW maintenance fees, it will just leave VB.

I disagree that RIV falls like the pessimists think it would. In fact, I think a resale RIV is about the safest thing you can acquire if you want your money back in 30 years. At a certain point the rental market prevents it from collapsing to nothing.

 

[Cfabar1]

The first resort to hit zero will be VB, but I have my doubts if anything else will outside of year 46+ when closing fees and transfer fees erode value. If they find a way to solve CFW maintenance fees, it will just leave VB.

I disagree that RIV falls like the pessimists think it would. In fact, I think a resale RIV is about the safest thing you can acquire if you want your money back in 30 years. At a certain point the rental market prevents it from collapsing to nothing.

resale RIV (for the right price) is the best play in DVC... far and away....

People hate when I say it, but I really feel it is true.

Only thing against it is a slightly greedy points chart, but that isn't insurmountable...

 

[airjay75]

The current resale market overvalues the ability to exchange into other resorts and undervalues length of contract. As we near 2042 and beyond, perhaps, there will be some adjustments along those lines.

 

[Chili327]

I could see the restricted resorts like Riviera and CFW go to zero. VB probably would have years ago if not for the ability to exchange into other resorts.

I think we will definitely see $0 or negative value for VB and HHI before they reach expiration. Truth is that while those resorts are nice, their value is really from the ability to book WDW resorts. You can find similar or better accomodations in both locations (minus the Disney experience/IP) for less than what you would pay for the points expended. Then you have the high dues for both properties. At this rate both will have dues close from $28- $32 PP at expiration assuming a 5% CAGR.

Regarding WDW properties. I think that the Cabins are the most likely to go negative due to the long expiration combined with very high dues, relatively affordable room cash rate, niche product and rectrictions in resale. This might change if... IF they are added to LSL.

When the dues add up to the same as rental or even worse rack rate?

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

The inherent problem with this is that would you rather have a week that costs 120 points at $14 pp dues (total - $1,680 in dues) or a week that costs 160 points at $10.50 pp dues (total - $1,680 in dues). You end up at the same place... except you've paid even more up front.

I follow your logic but if you’re the type of DVC member buying direct who wants to trade around, low point chart but high dues is a real downside.

For us, CFW is way more appealing than RIV, however, we still wouldn't buy it...

There was a LOT of excitement here first CFW before dues were announced, I really don’t think it’s purely a matter of resort desirability, as others have speculated.

Points charts have been consistently in line with cash prices at every single DVC resort except for Old Key West, which is ostensibly "too cheap" in points terms and should instead have a points chart that looks like Saratoga Springs.

If you want to know what kind of points chart a resort will have, look at the cash prices at the same resorts (or type of resort, if that exact resort is brand new). CFW has low points charts *because* CFW is cheaper to book with cash. "What prices can we charge our cash guests?" and "what points can we charge our DVC members" are tightly correlated.

I don’t know if I agree or disagree because part of the reason I think LSL will fall closer to RIV than CCV is that cash rates are also way up across the board. I also think you’re going to (once again) see hefty view premiums.

Said another way, one DVC point gets you roughly the same amount of dollars-of-rack-rate value across all DVC resorts.

I don’t think there’s evidence to support that, which is exactly why studios at BWV and BCV get snapped up before studios at Poly and AKV.

People freaked out about "points inflation" when Riviera opened because no non-monorail resort had ever seen points charts that high, but what has become clear since then is that Disney views the Skyliner as the Monorail 2.0. So it was Riviera's location and transportation that they feel justified the higher points chart, not just some general trend that points charts go up over time. I would have thought the inflation panic would have subsided after everyone predicted that VDH would have higher charts than Grand Cal just to be proven wrong, but that didn't stop the speculation.

I wasn’t around when RIV opened, and Disney may consider it a monorail like resort—but it’s not the same as the Seven Seas or Crescent Lake— no matter Disney feels about it.

I don’t think VDH is a good example, I suspect its points chart would actually be higher but for the very high ToT tax further depressing its value from the jump.

LSL will be a good barometer about whether point chart inflation actually exists or not. By Deluxe Resort standards, it seems pretty mediocre in every facet (not many details confirmed about the resort itself though).

Agree, so I’ll stop squabbling with people here and wait to see what happens!

To counterpoint... Demand to stay the units is very different than demand to purchase units. Other than the middle of summer, CFW is proving to be very competitive at 7 months. We could not get in for this Mid-December/Early-January, for instance. I think that there are VERY POPULAR for bookings by members, for as much as we can talk about what a bad deal it is for direct points there, it is an awesome use of points at 7 months from other properties.

The point chart to dues ratio makes it a fantastic place to visit or rent, but an unwise place to own (except perhaps for die hards and/or people with popular fixed weeks).

 

[sethschroeder]

guess what I find interesting is seeing resorts with strong "brands" like Sheraton and Hyatt being negative, in choice locations like Key West or Orlando, it does make me wonder if this could happen with some of the less desirable resorts location-wise like OKW. But, trading into the system would probably allow you to retain value.

I can go on Booking.com right now and find 50 options for Key West. Then go on Airbnb and find another 100 options for Key West. Why am I buying a timeshare?

Meanwhile WDW is a restricted location with a single property (Marriot 3 hotel compound) inside of it. Even those hotels though don't get full benefits as MK they have to drop off at the TTC.

There is a reason why Disney doesn't need high pressure sales and every other time share has to lock you in a room while giving you a free nights stay.

 

[sethschroeder]

Going "Negative" requires Disney to run their cash side at a loss making up for it in other areas. I dont see this happening in the grand scheme.

Disney is also always at high capacity especially in comparison to any generic location in the world.

 

[eticketplease]

When the dues add up to the same as rental or even worse rack rate?

Possibly adding up to rental rate but I don't think it will ever touch rack rate since that will go up every year and usually at a higher percentage then the dues going up.

Looking at an example for Riviera staying 6/7/26 - 6/14/26 as this timeframe applies to the largest discounts available.
Assuming one has paid cash for their contract or if they financed have paid it off and now the dues are their only cost.

The smallest savings I saw were for the 1 bedroom units but you also should factor in some of these rooms are not offered at a discount or even available to book a lot of the time but they are available for DVC owners.

 

[WinterSolider]

I don’t know if I agree or disagree because part of the reason I think LSL will fall closer to RIV than CCV is that cash rates are also way up across the board.

CCV sold at what, $176 per point? LSL will sell at probably $240. Disney takes their pound of flesh by raising the price per point, not points per night.

I don’t think there’s evidence to support that,

It's been a couple of years since I last did it, but I've charted every SINGLE night for a 365 day period in terms of both rack rate and points per night, and Old Key West is the only resort that's a meaningful outlier.

There are certain view categories and room types that are outliers, like Boardwalk Standard View being too cheap and tons of weirdness with unique rooms like treehouses, bungalows, cabins, AKV Value, and AKV Club. But resort-wide, OKW is the only weird one where the entire resort is out of line with cash prices.

which is exactly why studios at BWV and BCV get snapped up before studios at Poly and AKV.

Members aren't trying to get the most cash value for their points.

The entire 7 month booking window would collapse if there wasn't rough parity across the points charts. If LSL's chart is meaningfully higher than BRV and CCV, nobody will ever book it at 7 months and the entire system would devolve into gridlock.

 

[eticketplease]

Members aren't trying to get the most cash value for their points.

for those resorts that offer "views" it is often pennies on the dollars on the cash side but much steeper to go to a Lake or Theme Park view vs a standard with points but we are suckers and still try for the nicer view sometimes.

We also book 1 bedrooms which are not a great value cash or points wise but it is what we enjoy.

 

[eticketplease]

I don’t think there’s evidence to support that, which is exactly why studios at BWV and BCV get snapped up before studios at Poly and AKV.

IMO it's not really about the cash rate but rather there is a supply and demand issue going on here.

1. The Epcot resorts have a much smaller footprint even before adding the PIT Duo and 4 person studios to the mix.
2. The Epcot IG location seems to be desired by more DVC members than the other locations.

These numbers are assuming nothing is booked as a 2 bedroom lock-off
AKL - 296 Studios
PVB - 360 Longhouses
PIT - 39 Duo Studios, 137 4 Person Studios
Total of 862 Rooms
If we say nothing has been declared for the tower that still leaves us with 686 studios.

BCV - 110
BWV - 246
Total of 356 Rooms

 

[WinterSolider]

IMO it's not really about the cash rate but rather there is a supply and demand issue going on here.

1. The Epcot resorts have a much smaller footprint even before adding the PIT Duo and 4 person studios to the mix.
2. The Epcot IG location seems to be desired by more DVC members than the other locations.

These numbers are assuming nothing is booked as a 2 bedroom lock-off
AKL - 296 Studios
PVB - 360 Longhouses
PIT - 39 Duo Studios, 137 4 Person Studios
Total of 862 Rooms
If we say nothing has been declared for the tower that still leaves us with 686 studios.

BCV - 110
BWV - 246
Total of 356 Rooms

There's also a weird distortion field around Beach Club in particular. Beach Club owners love that place with an irrational exuberance that's completely disproportionate with how other owners feel about their home resorts.