Rumor by agent - Blue Card min. going up

[striker1064]

They probably don't want alot of small contracts to hit the resale market where all you can get is a studio at your home resort in turn making them a unicorn to get at your home resort at 10 months out.

It's really very unlikely DVC gives any thought, consideration, or care to what happens to points/contracts once they've been sold direct.

 

[Dean]

It's really very unlikely DVC gives any thought, consideration, or care to what happens to points/contracts once they've been sold direct.

I'm sure they do but it hasn't deterred them in this area. In reality they want the appearance of a resale ability but a reality that it's difficult to do so if not impossible. Every single resale contract is a potential lost sale even if someone says "I'd never have bought direct". The other reality is that very small contracts are more expensive to administer and thus raise fees for the rest.

 

[Brian Noble]

I will not be surprised to see the minimum raised---but if it happens it won't happen overnight. There will be plenty of notice. Why? It's a way to get the fence-sitters off the fence to buy before the increase kicks in.

Do not expect a significant increase in perks, and certainly not one that justifies the extra cost. The Blue vs. White card situation has always been more about perception than reality. Given the way DVC has been marketed--as a group of "insiders" and Members who "belong"--that makes a lot of sense. Perhaps more importantly, that's just how the game works: because the perks are paid for by DVC's marketing budget, they are designed to cost less on average than the revenue they bring in. True, some owners will get more value out of it than they pay, but the typical owner won't, assuming that the DVC marketing folks know what they are doing.

 

[Leahc117]

I just heard from the Disney salesperson that oct 1 the minimum goes up. What, then, do you DVC veterans recommend for the buyer who has been considering for months now? Will anyone have regrets about not getting “in” at 100 pts? I kind of which I had known about DVC when the minimum was 75pts...:

 

[sethschroeder]

I just heard from the Disney salesperson that oct 1 the minimum goes up. What, then, do you DVC veterans recommend for the buyer who has been considering for months now? Will anyone have regrets about not getting “in” at 100 pts? I kind of which I had known about DVC when the minimum was 75pts...:

For me I have went back and forth all over the place.

If I am buying at CCV or RIV I am not worried because honestly going from 100 points to 150 the extra 50 points come at a discount which come out around the same price as resale.

If I am buying at resorts in 2042 then I want to buy at 100 points.

If I am buying at 2054 or later resorts then I would be in a toss up because in 20 years time you are going to have multiple resorts disappear from your booking pool (there will be no Epcot/HS resorts left as an example).

What will be interesting is to see what the new promo is in September and if its better/worse/same.

 

[CastAStone]

I just heard from the Disney salesperson that oct 1 the minimum goes up. What, then, do you DVC veterans recommend for the buyer who has been considering for months now? Will anyone have regrets about not getting “in” at 100 pts? I kind of which I had known about DVC when the minimum was 75pts...:

The way I am thinking about it is this:

• If I buy now I will spend X dollars, with no guarantees that the gold annual pass access will come back, plus I won’t get to find out where exactly the fast pass on-site booking benefit winds up in the new post Covid environment, and I won’t get to let my resale contract dictate my Use Year.
• If I buy in 6 to 12 months, I will pay X+$1700 for my direct points, potentially less with incentives, after accounting for buying 25 fewer resale points. For my $1700, I will know for certain whether the annual pass benefit is coming back, I will know whether there will still be an on-site advantage in terms of ride access, and I won’t have to spend the extra to buy a resale contract that matches my use year.

For me, as much as I would love to get in before the deadline, the more I think about it, the less sense it makes to do it, given how much is up in the air.

 

[Dean]

I just heard from the Disney salesperson that oct 1 the minimum goes up. What, then, do you DVC veterans recommend for the buyer who has been considering for months now? Will anyone have regrets about not getting “in” at 100 pts? I kind of which I had known about DVC when the minimum was 75pts...:

Do your due diligence and proceed accordingly. Don't buy in if you're not ready just because of this. Put another way, don't let an increase force you into a bad decision. If DVC makes sense at 100 pts retail, it'll make sense at 125, but a bad decision can haunt you for many years.

 

[Leahc117]

The specials seem pretty good right now. The reason I would consider 200 points split into 100 pt contracts is so that I will be able to give blue card memberships to my kids someday...just not sure it’s worth the cost. Until researching all this DVC would have been a way to stay at the delux resorts- I could do that if I buy resale. Now I am worried about missing the opportunity to get the direct contracts.

 

[sethschroeder]

The way I am thinking about it is this:

• If I buy now I will spend X dollars, with no guarantees that the gold annual pass access will come back, plus I won’t get to find out where exactly the fast pass on-site booking benefit winds up in the new post Covid environment, and I won’t get to let my resale contract dictate my Use Year.
• If I buy in 6 to 12 months, I will pay X+$1700 for my direct points, potentially less with incentives, after accounting for buying 25 fewer resale points. For my $1700, I will know for certain whether the annual pass benefit is coming back, I will know whether there will still be an on-site advantage in terms of ride access, and I won’t have to spend the extra to buy a resale contract that matches my use year.

For me, as much as I would love to get in before the deadline, the more I think about it, the less sense it makes to do it, given how much is up in the air.

Also maintenance fees are prorated as well. So while you pay $1700 for the extra 25 points you also save X amount on the time you didn't pay for the MFs on ALL the points.

 

[Where'sPiglet?]

This is tempting me more now, with the discounts and looming increase, but Disneyland Tower isn't on sale yet. Must.....stay.....strong.....

 

[Brian Noble]

I just heard from the Disney salesperson that oct 1 the minimum goes up. What, then, do you DVC veterans recommend for the buyer who has been considering for months now? Will anyone have regrets about not getting “in” at 100 pts? I kind of which I had known about DVC when the minimum was 75pts...:

As I wrote above, raising the minimum with lots of notice is a way for DVD to create a sense of urgency on the part of folks who have been thinking about it but have not yet pulled the trigger.

My take on this: It is worth ignoring the Blue Card completely. Buy (or don't buy) the thing that fits your particular needs for lodging. If that happens to also be a reasonable thing to do as a direct purchase, fine. For example, if I really really wanted CCV to be my home resort, I think there is a good argument to be made for buying a studio fixed week there, plus enough more points to hit a discount threshold. I think I first saw that argument from @sethschroeder. But, for most people and for most things they are looking for, a resale contract makes more sense.

Yes, there are circumstances in which the Gold Pass discount can pay back the purchase difference. And, if you know for sure that you would get enough back from that to pay the difference plus a healthy margin, then maybe, but only then. And even so, I think it's a bad idea. So much is uncertain in this life, especially if the payoff horizon is more than 3-5 years out.

Everything else tied to the Blue Card is more or less an intangible, and probably not that materially important. That doesn't mean you can't value them highly, but I don't.

 

[Fred M]

Really confused on the logic behind increasing the direct minimum to 125. With the number of sales decreasing, do they really think the direct benefits they’re offering will justify the increase?

From a business perspective, it's not a bad move. They can lose 20% of first time direct sales with the price increase and still have the same cash from sales, e.g. 10 buyers at 100 points = 8 buyers at 125 points. And that's two fewer DVC members calling member services, renting their points, walking reservations, or even using the pool.

The only thing they are really missing is the merchandise and restaurant spending by a different family. Which they will get from those missing families paying for a cash room.

 

[Spinster Travel]

I've been looking at DVC for a number of years and got serious the last 3 months. When I talked with the DVC Guide who told me the minimum was going up, I felt panicked which I'm sure is what they hope. Sometime over the weekend, I realized that buying Direct for me at this point would be a decision based on emotion and that is not what's best for me. As it turned out, yesterday while drinking a Sunday cup of coffee, I came across a new resale contract that was exactly what I wanted in points, resort and use year. I put in the offer and it was accepted and I feel really good about that decision. I know I'll need more points, so I can always add on Direct later and it will actually work to my benefit in that it will then match my Use Year (which if I bought now that UY would have to be approved as an exception).

 

[ScubaCat]

Anything that cost money would have to come from dues eventually and if only blue cards could use this service they would have to pay more

It doesn't work that way. Dues cannot pay for incidental benefits.

hile there will be some the won't buy because of the increase, that's likely a drop in the bucket and truthfully, most of those that say they won't, still sill

This is key here. Plenty of people that said "25 ok but 75 is too much" likely bought the 75 ultimately. I suspect if this (completely unfounded, IMHO) rumor bears out, there will be a rush of 100 point direct contracts, many by people who previously insisted that 75 was their limit.

 

[sethschroeder]

I think I first saw that argument from @sethschroeder

Yup the argument was if you are buying RIV/CCV then get a fixed week.

And even so, I think it's a bad idea. So much is uncertain in this life, especially if the payoff horizon is more than 3-5 years out.

One thing to think of is math might take 10 years. After 5 years though it might be "close enough" where you would have been happy to pay the extra anyways. Thats my same thought process around getting 150 points at CCV vs sticking to 100 points. If I compare the 100 point and 150 point total costs it comes out that I get 50 points at $155/point. Then it comes down to that vs what I could get a small contract for on resale (small contracts normally go for a premium and don't come up all the time in the right UY).

 

[CastAStone]

(completely unfounded, IMHO) rumor

What is it that makes you skeptical of what the guides are telling multiple Disers? Not trying to be argumentative just haven’t been here long enough to know when to be skeptical.

 

[ScubaCat]

What is it that makes you skeptical of what the guides are telling multiple Disers? Not trying to be argumentative just haven’t been here long enough to know when to be skeptical.

Guides haven't closed many sales in a while so they'll say almost anything for a 100 point contract right now. Not that I blame them; I'm just considering their motives. It only takes one to start the rumor. They'd have to raise the minimum new owner purchase as well, which also seems unlikely to me.

The purpose of this restriction is to drive direct sales. I just don't see how this would help that cause.

Then again, who knows. Time will tell either way.

 

[FireworksEverAfter]

Here's the big question for DVC though. If you were only going to buy the minimum, what is the draw over resale? Are they planning extra incentives? Extra discounts? More events? The unknown of the current incentives has always been that they could go away. For those buying a direct to upgrade for incentives what is the draw to buy an additional 25 with the exception of having an additional 25?

 

[sethschroeder]

If you were only going to buy the minimum, what is the draw over resale?

They don't really want that type of buyer. They want to give benefits to people who bought direct so they buy direct again (even if they don't get anything out of it).

 

[MonkeyKnifeFight]

Yeah thinking about this. Riveria doesn’t interest me and neither does copper creek. Old resorts are way too expensive and don’t have very good deals. Looking at 10-15 years to make back the money on the gold pass savings which I don’t even plan to start using until 2023.

So I think we are going to stick with the original plan and buying some future property direct in 10-20 years if a good one comes out. Poly phase 2 or beach club/board walk replacement. Will probably just add on 100-200 BLT resale instead for the time being.