ROFR Thread April to June 2024 *PLEASE SEE FIRST POST FOR INSTRUCTIONS & FORMATTING TOOL*

[atthebeachclub]

Oh wow, I honestly think that JUST changed. I’d expect the owners prices to start to follow suite. They were previously charging a 5$ markup on extremely desperate to rent points that were distressed. I doubt the plan is to suddenly make 7$ off owners of premium resorts, especially when the brokers are desperate to find more owners.

https://dvcrequest.com/dvc-owners/information

View attachment 864917

I’d expect based on their new pricing tiers the owner rates will increase to 18/20/22$ per point.


Anyways all that said ironically this makes BCV more valuable than it was again in my eyes yesterday.

That bakes back in a significant discount of 9$pp or so to buy (currently roughly 16$pp at BCV) compared to 25$ to rent (which you can barely do anyways).

I looked at this pricing before buying and came to the same conclusion. Also I think it is hilarious that they have coded the resorts with their own tiered system. Honestly. Premium, regular, and advantage? Get out of here…lol.

 

[CastAStone]

Problem with these contracts is that they’re stripped until 2025, normally for a great price nbd but with a 2042, every year really does count. Then again, waiting around for the market to catch up to reality might take another few years for BCV so probably won’t get those prices until 2025 or 2026 anyway.

For a 2042 resort I would value any 2023-2025 points as at least worth a 10% premium *for each year* over a stripped contract (and potentially more based on who is paying each year’s dues). So a 200-100-100 is worth 40% more to me than a 0-0-0.

The discount rate is impacting it that much to me now. I wouldn’t pay more than ~$85 for a fully stripped BCV contract (which I realize means I’m not getting one, but, ya know what, good!)

 

[CastAStone]

I feel like there was a really negative sentiment towards BWV/BCV resale because of 2042 a couple of years ago…. but for the most part that seems to have evaporated except from the pure SAP crowd.

I think the BCV/BWV prices finally fell enough to not seem as ludicrous. BCV I actually had calculated as upside down as a *resale* product at one point, when you couldn’t get a reasonable sized contract under $150.

In any event, I am skeptical you’ll still be able to rent BCV or BWV anywhere close to $20/pt in 10 years. The fixed low point charts will make them more valuable. It’s already strange to me that you can rent them for an amount comparable to VGF/RIV/PVB (I understand why PVB could be more this year, but not normally).

David’s just separated the resorts into 3 tiers…I don’t think it’s gonna be too long until we see further separation of resorts based on demand. BCV and VGC in particular I think could command higher premiums, and it might make renting them easier if they did.

DVC Rental Store definitely prices their confirmed reservation by individual resort.

How frequently is point rental cost evaluated/changed across the community?

So for comparison to the above prices, I paid Davids DVCrequest.com $16/point in 2018 for a 2019 reservation. They were paying owners I believe $12/ point at the time. They at that time charged $17/pt for premium resorts (everything but OKW, SSR, and AKV) and paid the owners an extra $0.50.

DVC Rental Store was similar at the time but mostly dealt with confirmed reservations. They changed their business model A LOT since then and drove up the market rates A LOT as well, but owner payments have always seemed to lag broker increases for both sites.

Prices on the Dis rental board at the time seemed to range from $12-15 per point, IIRC. It wouldn’t be tough just to search that sub forum for old asking prices.

But overall rental prices and payments have both increased considerably.

 

[BrianLo]

BrianLo---$140-$14671-100-CCV@WL-Dec-200/23, 100/24, 100/25-seller pays MF '24- sent 6/3


Hello my name is Brian and I am ready to start recovering from addonitis.

Please do not let me back in this thread again: (unless I get a small RIV normalized for 100, Poly normalized for 120 or VGC normalized for 170’s).

 

[BrianLo]

Oooh I’ll also take VDH for 120, k thanks bye.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

StBrianLo---$140-$14671-100-CCV@WL-Dec-200/23, 100/24, 100/25-seller pays MF '24- sent 6/3


Hello my name is Brian and I am ready to start recovering from addonitis.

Please do not let me back in this thread again: (unless I get a small RIV normalized for 100, Poly normalized for 120 or VGC normalized for 170’s).

This is not the support group you are looking for.

 

[CastAStone]

I get a small RIV normalized for 100, Poly normalized for 120 or VGC normalized for 170’s

2 of the three seem possible in the next few years to me…I’m a VGC pessimist but even I can’t see $170s, at least not until the 2050s.

 

[Chili327]

Oh wow, I honestly think that JUST changed. I’d expect the owners prices to start to follow suite. They were previously charging a 5$ markup on extremely desperate to rent points that were distressed. I doubt the plan is to suddenly make 7$ off owners of premium resorts, especially when the brokers are desperate to find more owners.

https://dvcrequest.com/dvc-owners/information

View attachment 864917

I’d expect based on their new pricing tiers the owner rates will increase to 18/20/22$ per point.


Anyways all that said ironically this makes BCV more valuable than it was again in my eyes yesterday.

That bakes back in a significant discount of 9$pp or so to buy (currently roughly 16$pp at BCV) compared to 25$ to rent (which you can barely do anyways).

Yea, they will have to adapt, probably raise the pay next year, gives them a year to not take the hit.

For a 2042 resort I would value any 2023-2025 points as at least worth a 10% premium *for each year* over a stripped contract (and potentially more based on who is paying each year’s dues). So a 200-100-100 is worth 40% more to me than a 0-0-0.

The discount rate is impacting it that much to me now. I wouldn’t pay more than ~$85 for a fully stripped BCV contract (which I realize means I’m not getting one, but, ya know what, good!)

I've now added BCV to my wishlist, & even thinking 100pts isn't so bad, i usually am only looking for 25-60 for BWV (& now BCV).

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

2 of the three seem possible in the next few years to me…I’m a VGC pessimist but even I can’t see $170s, at least not until the 2050s.

I think there are so many of us that would jump on VGC well above $170, I’ve been trying to find low $200s for months.

 

[CastAStone]

I think there are so many of us that would jump on VGC well above $170, I’ve been trying to find low $200s for months.

Count me in that group too. I’d have to actually go calculate what it’s worth to me, which I’ve never done. A passing glance was enough to know I am not paying $230-$300 for it.

I will say, staying there as my first ever stay on my dirt cheap SSR points earlier this year felt so good it would still be hard to want to do anything else. But I know the odds of me pulling that off with a 2BR are low, and these three kids aren’t getting any smaller.

 

[BrianLo]

2 of the three seem possible in the next few years to me…I’m a VGC pessimist but even I can’t see $170s, at least not until the 2050s.

100 percent, just giving myself vague permission. Which is basically I'm pricing out VGC for potentially ever.

And when I say 170's I mean normalized. Aka 190 with points on the contract. Still likely not happening, especially because I mean a 50/75 pointer.

I think I've honestly overshot in all reality, this is getting stripped and rented.

 

[Chili327]

I think there are so many of us that would jump on VGC well above $170, I’ve been trying to find low $200s for months.

I just paid $270, so yea. lol

 

[BrianLo]

I just paid $270, so yea. lol

It's distinctly a me phenomenon, mixed with the points charts. I really don't care about the space of a Duo v. regular Studio if I'm the only one in that room. My D23 trip would be 155% more points at VGC (and half the time I'm in a preferred view). It would be 145% if it was in September as it was 2 years ago. It would be 225% more points if D23 fell between Aug 15-31 as it sometimes does. Even my March trip with a Duo + Studio at VDH would be 175% more expensive for 2 Studios at VGC. I own DLR primarily for D23.

VDH has many, many, many flaws. But the Duo Studios and weird discrepancies between the two points charts doesn't seem to be one of them. So I just cannot ever get the math on VGC to work for me, even despite the TOT at VDH.

(This exercise was a helpful reduction of VGC addonitis - see this thread really can help! ha ha ha)

 

[AstroBlasters]

<AstroBlaters pops into ROFR. He sees people comparing a duo at VDH to a deluxe studio at VGC… he then sees that someone who just purchased CCV at $140 is referencing VGC at $170/$190….he shakes his head… sighs at the silliness of the internet…looks forward to the chuckle he will get after the refurb…..and moves to a different thread>

 

[DonMacGregor]

<AstroBlaters pops into ROFR. He sees people comparing a duo at VDH to a deluxe studio at VGC… he then sees that someone who just purchased CCV at $140 is referencing VGC at $170/$190….he shakes his head… sighs at the silliness of the internet…looks forward to the chuckle he will get after the refurb…..and moves to a different thread>

Astroblasters could have said a prayer and some kind words for those of us waiting for our Aulani contracts to clear while he was here...

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

Astroblasters could have said a prayer and some kind words for those of us waiting for our Aulani contracts to clear while he was here...

The other day someone posted about using excess points for AUL Grand Villas and @AstroBlasters didn’t comment with approval and I was like “OMG, I hope he’s OK.”

 

[AstroBlasters]

Astroblasters could have said a prayer and some kind words for those of us waiting for our Aulani contracts to clear while he was here...

<AstroBlasters sees notifications , checks back on ROFR, agrees with the wise words of @DonMacGregor, and puts forth good feelings of Aloha towards his Aulani ‘Ohana>

 

[BrianLo]

<AstroBlaters pops into ROFR. He sees people comparing a duo at VDH to a deluxe studio at VGC… he then sees that someone who just purchased CCV at $140 is referencing VGC at $170/$190….he shakes his head… sighs at the silliness of the internet…looks forward to the chuckle he will get after the refurb…..and moves to a different thread>

Uhm, thanks? Guess we aren't super supportive around here after all.

Yes I've paid a normalized price of 90's at CCV after I strip it. I'm sorry I'm not quite willing to pay triple for VGC? It wasn't a judgement, it was just me explaining why VGC was out of my personal price range when asked. It was mostly just a joke to begin with.

 

[AstroBlasters]

Uhm, thanks? Guess we aren't super supportive around here after all.

Yes I've paid a normalized price of 90's at CCV after I strip it. I'm sorry I'm not quite willing to pay triple for VGC? It wasn't a judgement, it was just me explaining why VGC was out of my personal price range when asked. It was mostly just a joke to begin with.

Congratulations on your CCV contract. It is a very good price for a small loaded contract in a highly desirable use year. I hope that you and those close to you have many special memories there and everywhere else those points take you.

 

[BrianLo]

Congratulations on your CCV contract. It is a very good price for a small loaded contract in a highly desirable use year. I hope that you and those close to you have many special memories there and everywhere else those points take you.

Thank you! Now I actually have a 2 bedroom portfolio to be that strange poster gyrating between Duo Studios and 2 bedroom units on alternating trips.